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Everything posted by Macca
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Bad luck with Alizee - not her day. Couldn't get going. Picked up a decent percentage of the lesser trifecta in the race so can't complain. That is an impressive win by Grunt ... Rosehill Guineas is next (possibly) Big future for the horse regardless.
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Winx absolutely supreme although the horse didn't have much to beat ... it has come back as good as ever. Next up for Winx is the George Ryder Stakes (March 24)
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It was drawn out wide but as you said, the jockey could have pushed it towards the leader early ... looked like he was looking for cover but it didn't work. Of course, we need these best bets to win so 2nd is no real consolation.
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I thought the horse had every chance ... the winner was too good. 'Care to Think' just didn't have the same finishing speed like it has shown previously. Something was amiss even though it didn't run badly.
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It had better not win!
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Before today Wadda our record was ... 15: 10 - 3 - 0 It's now ... 17: 12 - 3 - 0
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My mate gets good mail ... the tips aren't frequent but they rarely miss. It was a real surprise to get 2 tips (the other tip Seattle Park goes in race 5)
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Not so easy that time but we're now 2 from 2 ! The jockey only pushed Santos late in a slowly run race. There's some improvement to come with the horse.
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Aloft did it easily ... that's 1 from 1 !
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Ok ... we're all set! Here are the 4 best bets ... Flem Race 2 No.2 Aloft (2.50) Rand Race 3 No.2 Santos (2.10) Rand Race 5 No.3 Care to Think (2.90) Rand Race 7 No.2 Alizee (2.35) Combined odds 35-1 (the 4 trebles are paying from $12 up to $17) Good luck to all !
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Good choice D77 ... Alizee won well at its last start and the extra distance suits - she won at Group 1 level in the Spring over 1600m & also won at Group 2 level over this distance (1400m) in the same time period. Primed for this one. My choice (Care to Think) has drifted in the betting (out to 2.90) but its opening price was very skinny, all the same. Her finishing speed in the last 200 is eye-catching. Out of the 3 best bets I like Santos as the best of the best! As always, it will be interesting to see which horse @binman comes up with to complete the quartet.
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It does ... the winner should come from the top 3 which suits my 3 - 5 - 5 Trifecta system (when it works!) Throw in the 2 Weir horses for 2nd & 3rd and there you have it. I haven't really looked closely at the Flemington card but I've got a mate who gets the odd tip or 2 ... he's been given 'Hear the Chant' (Race 3 No.2) & 'Seattle Park' (Race 5 No.11) Might be worth a $3 three leg multi (coupled with one of our best bets)
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You're right Gorg but maybe they should allow some jostling/using your body anyway. If they are not going to pay it then allow it (which is what they are effectively doing a lot of the time) It's probably the one area of Footy/Aussie Rules where the ruling (when adjudicated properly) is spot on. A player can use his body/jostle/out-muscle but hands in the back is disallowed. We allow players to push-off when the ball is within 5 metres (again, when adjudicated properly)
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Good pick up Wadda ... in fact, the horse (Fell Swoop) has run at Group 1 or Group 2 level in its last 16 starts (if we include The Everest as a Group 1 Race) 12 of those 16 starts have been at Group 1 level. The horse has had no respite from top company (until tomorrow) The only horse that (somewhat) rivals Fell Swoop for Group appearances is the 2 (Secret Agenda) but it hasn't raced in 41 weeks. I'm going to take a trifecta in the race as I reckon it might pay well for the right combo. My mate who follows Ellerton likes Crystal Dreamer so I'll include that in my top 3. Weir has 2 of the other runners as well
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I like the 3 bets bets (so far) ... they are all short odds but just as it is with the footy club, it's all about the winning. $11 (combined) represents excellent value We've got a bit to work with in regards to a few other horses we might fancy as welI. I also don't mind Nomithaj (Race 1 Flem) & Tshahitsi (Race 6 Flem) and also, the aforementioned Dixie Blossoms & Cliff's Edge.
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Best Bet ... In the end I decided on 'Care to Think' in the Liverpool City Cup (Race 5 No.3 Randwick Saturday) I just believe it will have too much class for its rivals in this race. I do like Dixie Blossoms in race 8 but I believe 'Care to Think' is a horse on the rise and is therefore a safer best bet. Currently showing 2.40.
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Cliff's Edge meets Grunt 3.5 kgs better from their last encounter Wadda (over 1400m) and the Guineas is over 1600m. That should be enough to turn things around. Here's a replay of 'Care to Think' winning the MM Gold Coast Cup (1400m) ... it ran a sizzling time (1:20.72) and had to work hard from the wide barrier. Care to Think is 2.40 favourite in the 5th race at Randwick on Sat (The Liverpool City Cup) Those 2 you mentioned really do stand out D77 (especially Santos) I'm also not sure Winx will have it all her own way first up ... but the only danger is 'Prized Icon' - here's it's last run in The Apollo Stakes on Feb 17 They ran a fairly quick time and Prized Icon was finishing strong. I still believe that Winx wins but she get may challenged for a bit.
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Here's an interesting development (and about time too) ... Committee says the Des Bryant '14 playoff play should be a catch in the future Goodell has flagged for change and it looks like he will get his wish if they can find a way to re-word the ruling. Anyway, it can't be too hard to get it right. I said at the time that the Bryant play should have been a touchdown same as the megatron catch in 2010 and also, the Jesse James play for the Steelers just prior to this year's playoffs.
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Early doors but there's a few horses that standout at Randwick on Saturday (apart from Winx) Santos (R3), Care to Think (R5) & Alizee (R7) are all heavily supported but I'm leaning towards Dixie Blossoms in race 8 (The Guy Walter Stakes) I usually like to go early but with a bit of rain about up there I'll wait a day or so. In the Winx race (R6) only Prized Icon stands out as a likely placegetter whilst Classic Uniform & Stampede seem to be ahead of the rest for a first 4 wager (box the 3 for 2nd, 3rd & 4th?) Edit: Had a little 'interest' bet trifecta in the Launceston Cup today and it got up! A more than decent dividend too, all things considered. Would have had the first 4 if I'd had a go at it. Another Darren Weir winner of course.
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3 Group 1 races coming up this weekend (Chipping Norton Stakes, Australian Guineas & the Surround Stakes) Here are the replays of last year's Chipping Norton & Australian Guineas ...
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Not sure there are any teams out there who can dominate a year (18, 19 wins) so a top 4 finish probably means that a team just needs to get to 15 or 16 wins. Probably. Given a reasonable run with injuries we can win about 11 - 16 games ... anything less than that means we've either had a wretched run with injuries or we're in strife. The area we need to get a lot better - pace and quick movement away from the packs & stoppages. However, we are sometimes very good in that area when the opposition allows us to be very good. Other times we're ok or reasonable. In round 23 last year we got exposed in that very area. Fix that and maintain improvement in other aspects and we'll win games that we should win. But lets face it, Rome wasn't built in a day and we've come a long way in 3 or 4 years (from a very ordinary base) We've building a decent list of players so the coaches will have something to work with. If a lot of things go our way we can contend. Our list isn't that good (yet) where we could be described as a dominant team. What is in our favour is that the league is more of an even competition these days.
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Post Match Discussion: JLT #1 vs North Melbourne
Macca replied to Demonland's topic in Melbourne Demons
Well if it's not Gus it will be someone else (ugh) I've never understood it - seems a bit caveman(ish) I go right back - Graeme Osborne and then way later on, Tony Campbell. Parke used to cop it (kicking) And of course Tilbrook went from being the saviour to the cause of all our issues. Then there's Watts. It never ends ET -
Post Match Discussion: JLT #1 vs North Melbourne
Macca replied to Demonland's topic in Melbourne Demons
Brayshaw's kicking to position is A1 ... once he gets complete confidence watch him gun it. Not many possess the skill to see the game ahead of them but Gus has got that skill. He's had a terrible time of it with all the concussions and just needs a good go at it ... it's best to judge the bloke on his footy and not get annoyed at his unavailability. He is still very young (22)- 298 replies
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Post Match Discussion: JLT #1 vs North Melbourne
Macca replied to Demonland's topic in Melbourne Demons
Tom's great strength is his ability to read the play and make time for himself - a good asset if you're a backman (Scarlett) but a great asset if you're a forward. He's like an unexpected new recruit who can hold down a vital position which we didn't see coming. T-Mac seems ideally suited as a forward. Different to Neitz as the big fella could have been an all-time great CHB. -
Post Match Discussion: JLT #1 vs North Melbourne
Macca replied to Demonland's topic in Melbourne Demons
It is T-Mac DJ ... he's exceptionally durable and an ideal 2nd ruck for today's footy. As well as that he can hold down a KPF spot which now requires good endurance levels. Again, ideally suited and he's a good kick for goal. Spacial awareness is not a factor when distancing a kick is not a factor. Just kick it between the 2 big white posts. I've done a complete about-face on rucking but Gawn can be so good that he could be classed as a throw-back/old school. Good teams can win without a front-line ruckman these days - we did it against good teams last year. Jacobs/Adelaide had close to 70 knock-outs against us at home last year but we performed a 70 point turnaround against them (and won well)