Macca

Good luck with the 4 pick DZ ... I haven't looked at the first 2 races but 'I Am A Star' is a very good horse. 'Trap For Fools' loves the Valley and should win. In fact, I reckon if Sunset Watch salutes, you'll get the 4.

My 2 Best Bets Serie A (Italian League) 2.00am Sunday $2.80 Juventus Win & Match Score +2.5 Goals vs Napoli EPL Saturday Midnight $1.95 Arsenal Win & Match Score +2.5 Goals vs Watford That gives us 30-1 for the 4 DZ without BM's input and without our European Correspondent's input ... haven't applied odds boost either.

Weir got 1st, 2nd & 4th in the Benalla Cup ... missed on Lord Fandango of course but thems the breaks. Went for a bit of value so nothing ventured, nothing gained. I will be watching the DK Weir horses in the feature races in the bush over the Spring.

My tips ... Philadelphia, Seattle, KC

An ex-player on Sportscenter was saying that their defense has a few weaknesses - more so in the secondary but that might be injury related. But all the teams get injuries so it is not a singular reason - unless that injury is to a gun QB where the back-up is way below ordinary. The Rams will now be the hunted though so they will get dissected by all ... but having a wise-head like Wade Phillips to support their young coach is an excellent situation for them. They are the team to beat in the NFC, that much is true

Yeah, top class game between 2 very good teams Dappa. You've got to wonder how the Vikings could possibly lose that badly at home to the Bills? Costly loss as next up for Minnesota is at the Eagles. And if one of the NFC North teams can get on a roll then the Vikings could easily be playing catch-up for the season. Mind you, I don't believe that the Packers, Lions or the Bears are all that great. But you never know. As for the Rams, who's gonna stop 'em? Their defense gave up points but their offense is supreme with Goff at the helm. And the Vikes were always likely to score with their good offense.

Just a box5 DZ ... nothing jumps out at me although the favourite 'Mr Garcia' has strong claims. I'm hoping that a couple of my 'value' runners can beat it home. With these Country cups it's more a matter of looking for the horses that might have been set for the race ... and we know that Weir targets these races.

Excellent opening drive by the Vikes Game-on by the looks of it

The wonders of the internet hey Wadda! One of your favourites 'Voodoo Lad' is out of the Moir Stakes tonight .... it is still a crack field though with any number of chances including the boom sprinter 'Nature Strip' Been having a bit of luck with the Country Cups this year so I may have a bit of a go at the Benalla Cup this afternoon. Weir sets his horses for these Cups and he's got 3 of the 11 runners engaged today.

Nice pick Wadda ... the Premiere Stakes will probably be upgraded to Group 1 status soon enough too. 2 weeks out from the 'Everest', many of the sprinters from the Everest will continue to contest the $500k race. Very classy field as it was last year when 'In Her Time' won. The racing is going to be great on the weekend ... really looking forward to it. My Best Bet is in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Sunday Caulfield Race 8 No.9 Grunt $3.40

A new page so here are the games again ... Public holiday in Victoria tomorrow so we locals get a chance to watch the Vikes @ Rams game live. Ideal. Vikings are at Philadelphia next week so they'll need to get a move on after dropping a game to the Bills at home. Only the 1 point on offer for 3 correct 'Road' winners this week so good luck all.

Fair enough Gonzo although I believe that many equate a top 5 pick as a top player (A grade or at least B+) and if that doesn't eventuate they will blame the recruiter, the club and then the player himself. And then bang on about who should have been picked instead. It has to be remembered that these high school age kids are not the finished product by any means and that many of these prospects never progress much past their last junior year (Morton, Toumpas, Cook, Gysberts etc) So therefore, the draft and the draft picks attached is a flawed concept in at least some respects. True value? A matter of opinion but I have outlined my reasoning in previous posts. Busts happen and they happen a lot ... you can get on a good run, a bad run, a middling or indifferent run. We have seen our fair share of busts so hopefully we continue the good run that we're having of late (Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Oliver et al) And there's now a real chance that we could be a major player at the top end of the draft again. Who would have thought?

Trust your judgement Gonzo so things might have improved somewhat although ... I believe a bigger sample size at least 5 years on is more applicable. I started a thread in late 2014 outlining and highlighting 10 drafts and concentrating on the top 5 picks ... 10 Years of Drafting (2000 - 2009) Within that link exposed a number of myths and some absolute truth's as well. My summation is that unless the recruiters are generally incompetent right across the board, there has to be a system problem. We need to look further than our own club too. A macro view is required. Appreciate your research though and it is food for thought. I want way overs for Hogan as I absolutely rate the bloke ... he's had rotten run with injuries and family tragedies but at some stage that time will pass and he'll be fit, firing and ready to go.

The reported yearly offer ($1.2Million?) ups the ante even further (for us) Sure, we can win without him but if you are in a position of strength you do not give an inch.

I reckon a few here are undervaluing Hogan a bit too. The club is hopefully valueing Hogan as a valuable player who we don't want to lose. And that value is that he is injury free from here on in and can play forward, back and in the middle in a topline fashion. As a utility he is right up there. So if you want him pay up.

2 early picks could equal 1 bust whilst the other pick could take 3-5 years to bear fruit. I prefer to keep things real and I do not want the club to lose out

My view on how flawed drafting can be came before we ever had a draft and also not on what does consistently happen in the States. The true value for Hogan is more like 3 x top 10 picks based on those flaws if the desire is to win-out on the deal. Who wanrs to lose out? Get everything we can and then some.

And I am amused as well ... that is why I argue that picks are overvalued from a macro & micro point of view We are in agreeance except I reckon there is a true value attached if analysing the flaws

It is flawed and you've admitted that so you then have to factor in the flaws as I have done. I stand by my comment tbat draft picks are overvalued. The only upside to that is that if every club overvalues a draft pick then I suppose it is fair all round Doesn't make it right though.

In effecr you are still arguing that a pick has value if we go all out to get certain picks for Oliver & Weideman. And by the way, Weideman is a top 10 pick so the expectations from most fans is top player ... and that may or may not happen. And we had to move to pick 3 to get Oliver ... and Oliver might have been a bust if we look at the facts & data thst the draft spits out. There is a lot of confirmation bias that suits but often only when that confirmation bias is a positive.

Hindsight comment as were not saying that at the time ... in fact, you were probably all-in with the pucks then like most others here were Wrong again .Gonzo .. for instance 3 of the first 4 picks in the 2012 draft are busts. It would be easy for me to simply go along with the crowd but the crowd is often wrong The draft is flawed and that is a fact so because it is flawed, that factor has to be taken into account.

Your view is a micro view Gonzo ... mine is a macro viiew and therefore the correct view. Facts are facts ... Stephen Wells for instance went from forever drafting stars to constantly drafting B- players. And draft picks relate to the system that draft picks are related to ... and the system is flawed and always has been. Jummy Toumpas, Cale Morton, Brock McLean and hundreds of others were star, standout juniors. That is why they were top-end draft picks. If you believe tnat it is just the recruiters constantly making rash or poor decisions you are wrong.

Draft picks are severely overrated ... the fact of the matter is that top 5 or top 10 picks are hit and miss. Half of all first round draft picks are busts in terms of expectations. B- or worse and the facts bear that out. And most if not all first round draft picks are standout juniors. So those are the facts. Bearing that in mind we did not pay overs for Lever at all. If you want to believe the bs & spin, you'll believe otherwise. So if we want 'like-for-like' for Hogan, even 2 top-end draft picks doesn't cut it ... the percentage play says 1 of those 2 picks will be a bust and with the other pick, we have to wait at least 3 years for the prospect to become a decent footballer. If we want more than 'like-for-like' we'll need more than 2 top-end draft picks. Too many people including the so-called 'experts' value a draft pick in terms of best-case-scenario. Which is the wrong way to view matters. The best way to view it is if you were the CEO of a company who oversees realistic budgets.

The Premiere Stakes at Randwick is a Group 1 race in terms of quality ... Shoals & Santa Ana Lane can't be discounted in the race too. Both at double figure odds. A bit of give in the track brings both horses into it too The race is like a mini-Everest with 6 of the starters engaged in the Everest a fortnight later. 2 of the other Everest runners are in the Moir Stakes Friday night and with 1 slot left open in the Everest, Viddora & a couple of others have a chance to stake their claim. And Chautauqua has a jump-out scheduled for Friday night as well. It's all happening! I'll be doing my usual Box5 trifecta's whilst hoping that my 4th & 5th picks can run 1st & 2nd! There's value aplenty across the 3 meetings though. 'Get-On' & Sky's 'Form Line' show will be must viewing tomorrow night.

You are doing well in the comp first time up DZ ... in fact, you're in the lead! (along with 11 others) For whatever reason we haven't seen a lot of strong teams on the road against weak opposition so far ... plus, I'm not sure there are many 'pushover' teams about anyway. And a few of the traditionally strong teams are performing below par as well. There were 5 road winners in week 3 but 3 of the 5 were complete outsiders - especially the Bills & Giants. It's a tipsters nightmare at the moment. In other news it looks like we could see a relaxing of the strict new interpretation of 'roughing the passer' ... NFL Competition Committee members reportedly uncomfortable with roughing the passer calls