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Everything posted by Macca
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A total of 9 Stakes races at Caulfield & Randwick on Saturday including 2 x G1's, 2 x G2's & 4 x G3's Main interest will be with the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (our nominated 'Team Exotic') & the G1 George Main Stakes. Some great racing to be had Randwick Saturday (full card) ... Stakes Races 4, 5, 6, 7 & 8 Caulfield Saturday (full card) ... Stakes Races 6, 7, 8 & 9 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes G1 1400m $500k (Field, Form & Odds) George Main Stakes G1 1500m $500k (Fields, Form & Odds)
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@Wadda We Sing ... executive decision time. If you're going to be around on Saturday and we get a late scratching, just add one yourself. But you're going to have to do it early as people here won't want to hang around or wait too long. I barely get 5 minutes to scratch myself on a Saturday so I don't want to be checking in here too much. Not everyone is idle during Covid-19. Half I know are flat out like I am. The other half are bored witless. Or just leave it at 5 choices (if we had 6 nominated) ... I'll leave it up to you. We can worry about rotating the sub choice later on but from a personal point of view, it won't bother me at all if there are only 5 choices ... I'll just add 1 or 2 myself. Preview to follow
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If it goes from 6 nominated to 5 because of a Saturday scratching I don't believe we should be too fussed. Make it low maintenance Individuals can add their own private choice or choices from the 5 left over if there's a Saturday scratching. If the scratching happens Friday or earlier the person gets another go if they are alerted and aware. Otherwise the thing becomes too cumbersome with too much moderation for any individual (and it won't be me as I work Saturdays) Any earlier scratching can be worked the same way we work the best bets. By the way, with the best bets, I don't view the choices as a 5 or 6 pick multi as first port of call. Others can but that's their choice. I'd much rather single bets, a double or 2 and maybe a treble. I'll still have a coffee on the bigger multi but with zero expectations.
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I replied to this post in the post above Wadda but the post didn't quote--up (so to speak) But as for the exotic 6(?) pick should we just include Behemoth as the first choice so we can all pick something else. Solved the problem of finding the 6th participant as well. 6 picks and then people can do whatever they like with them ... allows everyone to have their own flexibility. So we just list the 6 picks once the 6 are in. Any scratchings and again, allow each individual to adjust on their own terms Keep it as simple as possible. Otherwise, it's too cumbersome and high maintenance. Behemoth as the standard bearer (?) So we then only need 5 others. We'll probably be done by Friday is my guess. I might go 3/7/7/7 but adding my own choice to the 6 (but not publicly)
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No worries Wadda I reckon the banter is great on race day ... terrific reading for those who read it later. And lets face it, it can become a bit of a free-for-all with tips aplenty (which is also terrific) But for an organised group bet we need to start as early as possible. For instance, JV7, Gorg, myself & DZ like to get in early. And yourself as well on occasions. So we'll have it all covered early if I'm reading the tea leaves right. Those who come in late run the risk of missing out. After 11.00am Saturday as a cut off time(?) Just a thought I also appreciate the work you do in collating all the best bets. Kudos. I'll post up some replays & preview later on ... as usual, flat chat at work!
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Golden Rule No.1 with multi's Never include the Clippers! Anyone else got any no go's !?
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Richie Porte up to 6th and riding really well. Only 2'13" off the lead with a top 5 finish beckoning and a podium finish not far out of reach. His team is working well for him too. Pogacar looked strong last night and last years winner (Bernal) was dropped and is now out of contention. Roglic still leads. In the Alps tonight as well as tomorrow and Thursday. A flatter stage on Friday with the time trial on Saturday. There is still a lot to play out.
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- 2011 winner cadel evans
- go any aussies!
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Listened to both games today (on & off) ... none of the teams today look all that threatening although the Steelers might be half decent. As is often the norm no one picked up any points in the tipping comp. 2 out of 3 ain't bad but it ain't good either when looking for 3 road winners. Colts & Eagles put most out. My 3 standout winners for the week - Seahawks, Patriots, Ravens. Rams, Packers, KC & Saints all did what they needed to do. Teams to post a significant loss - 49ers, Colts, Eagles, Vikings.
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Showmanship out for the Spring with a tendon injury. Hopefully back in the Autumn. Such a shame as the horse was looking a real force for the Spring. Behemoth now favourite for the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes ($3.50) but after that there are any number of chances. Dare I say it, a good betting race! 6-1 up to 15-1 ... Buffalo River, Perfect Jewel, Tagaloa, I Am Superman, Superstorm, Age of Chivalry, Cascadian & Begood Toya Mother are all not without chances. Some great value amongst the roughies too (that'll suit Biff) 25-1 up to 33-1 Reykjavik, Harbour Views, The Inevitable, Heptagon, Blazejowski Not a bad choice for a F4 team exotic (hint hint)
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I should also add that I reckon it's a good move for Tampa to bring in Brady for a year or 2. For all sorts of reasons. It's highly doubtful that they can win big but they can remain relevant and probably won't otherwise bottom out.
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Brady's 2nd half against Atlanta in that SB was immense too. He carried the team that day. At other times it's all been on Brady. But the conduit is Belichick. Prefer to view all the greats as great but all the greats would only look better under (arguably) the best of all time in Belichick. Who's to say that the combo of Belichick and Cam Newton doesn't taste success. I wouldn't bet against it.
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Brady is/was outstanding but Belichick made him even better. Rodgers has never really been surrounded by that sort of structure - the structure not being terrible but certainly not great. Father time is catching up to Tom as well. And he can't carry Tampa on his shoulders. If he does, I will go out of my way to give full credit.
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Aaron Rodgers wasn't underwhelming though GtB! The man looks to be back, better than ever. Pinpoint accuracy with 3 or 4 long throws ... a sight to behold. And Cam Newton under Belichick? ... an unlikely pairing but it might just work if we go by what happened today. I always felt that Brady needed Belichick more than Belichick needed Brady.
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The trouble with collating an exotic on a Saturday is that you need everyone here for 4 or 5 hours and it could be a mad scramble. You have to allow lag time and it's a bit of an imposition for punters here who may be otherwise involved in something else. For instance, I work every Saturday and only tune into the thread when I've got time (which is rare) Others can have the same issue. My main interest in the racing is in the lead up days. e.g. Rolling Fog's tips came in too late to be included in the multi last week. No one's fault either, he explained that he couldn't have done it any earlier. So that's 2 people potentially out already. It's just the circumstances of how things work (or don't work) We've had previous issues here waiting on a Best Bet on a Saturday. You could try it on a Saturday Wadda but I doubt whether it would work. The window is too tight. You're going to be chasing people up left right & centre. Myself included. And what about when people are out and about post the restrictions? Right now, many people are stuck inside but that's going to change. Down the track there might only be 1 or 2 people here on a Saturday. Esp if the Demons are playing on a Sat arvo ... for instance, we play Essendon next Sat at 2.10pm. I favour kicking the whole thing off on a Wednesday as the best bets are. Gives us lots of lead up time - problem solved in advance. Finalising an exotic bet on a Saturday makes more sense.
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It might be as simple as nominating a horse in the nominated race when putting up one's best bet. Do it at the same time. We'd probably have all the choices in by Friday evening and if we're 1 or 2 picks short 1 or 2 of us can have a 2nd choice on a rotating basis. The fields are out on a Wednesday so we could nominate the race on that day. If the race is a G1 race it will stand out anyway. The standout G1 race gets everyone's attention anyway and a lot of the G1's have around 16 - 18 entrants. The Melb Cup has 24 but just imagine if we snagged that one!? Cox Plate field can be a bit skinny but even the Everest field of 12 is ok considering nearly every horse entered in that race can win it. Just had a squiz at last years Rupert Clarke and there were 14 runners and the F4 paid $5773 Begood Toya Mother (2-1 Fav) Age of Chivalry Widgee Turf Streets of Avalon All decent performers hey Wadda! (So Si Bon ran 5th so we could have landed a F5 if it existed!)
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We tried a 5 pick trifecta way back but it didn't take off. But all we needed last weekend was for someone to nominate So Si Bon and we win (or whoever places a bet wins) ... and without boxing the 6 either as we had the winner outright (Fierce Impact - 3 noms) with any 2 others to win (if a multiple exotic instead of boxing suits) But I agree ... get 6 nominated horses and then do whatever you like with them. Not having a bet using the 6 is an option too. Nothing is compulsory. I reckon we stick to the Group 1 races ... Caul Cup, Everest, Melb Cup, Cox Plate, Derby, Oaks. For instance, next weekend we've got the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) or the George Main (1600m) up at Randwick. Small field in the George Main so probably the Rupert Clarke(?) Showmanship gets in at 54.5 kgs but might end up with a sticky barrier around the Heath
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With 14 teams now making the playoffs the 1 seed from each conference are the only 2 teams to get a bye I believe 2 v 7, 3 v 6 & 4 v5 is the playoff pattern in each conference but I stand corrected on that. To be honest, I'm tuning in late to proceedings so trying to catch up. 6 playoff games in week 1 of the post-season could get a bit hectic in terms of trying to watch all the games. AFC East - Pats AFC North - Ravens AFC South - Colts AFC West - KC Wildcards - Bills, Steelers, Titans NFC East - Dallas NFC North - Packers NFC South - Saints NFC West - 49ers Wildcards - Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks n.b. 7Mate are covering the Pats/Miami match (Early) and the 49ers/Arizona game (Late) No SNF or MNF though and that might be the ongoing schedule (just the 2 televised games every week)
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Well we've certainly got enough starters for the tipping comp but a shout out to @Dappa Dan @Go the Biff @titan_uranus @Dr. Gonzo or anyone else who wants to join in the fun & frivolity. 3 only picks per week but all have to be road winners ... it's that simple. Various points are awarded to those who get 'em right. Anyway, here's a couple of previews for week 1 as well as the game listings again. (n.b. you'll have to click on the youtube link to view the NFL Network clips) Sports Illustrated (The Magazine) NFL Season Preview Free Download
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The Tigers will beat Adelaide and make sure of it as they could lose the double chance otherwise. But an 80 point win to the Crows today will see them close in on North. Carlton could rally though ... Crows by 30 and then they'd need a big differential in margins next week I remember the days when there would be upset victories towards the end of the season (pre draft era) The rumour was always that a team would plonk a fair wad on themselves to pay for the end of season trip. Ya know, Captain Groenewegen and all that.
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Can't see Adelaide beating Richmond next week LH so they'll get pick 1 you'd reckon (unless they beat Carlton by 80+ points!)
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Hawks have probably already decided what they're going to do with pick 3 in the draft. And the Pies to take care of Gold Coast you'd imagine. Best chance is Freo against the Doggies next week. And we still have to beat Essendon next week of course. Footscray being the conduit much like it was in '76 & '87. Let's hope we get 2 out of 3. But in the drafting era clubs put the cue in the rack more often than not. Hoping for the best and if we get in we might even win a final. You never know. But by gee we've made it hard for ourselves.
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Yeah and I looked at So Si Bon but threw in Warning for real value. Punters Lanent! They came home for the last 600 in 00:33.29 and So Si Bon was travelling as well as any of the others. I will be (repeat, will be!) including So Si Bon in the exotics for length of its career! It us such a much improved honest horse but is just shy of G1 class. And the depth of our G1 milers isn't that strong either. Bit like Tom Melbourne ... I got a number of exotic collects with good old Tom included. Lesson learned the 2nd time around. And you're right about the bigger pools and that is related to the depth of quality. In similar 16 horse fields at least 2/3rds of the field can often be dismissed but not in a race like yesterday's Makybe Diva Stakes. Bank the top 3 as you mentioned Wadda but come up with 3 or 4 other roughies. A 3/7/7/7 combo costs the same as a box 6. In a WFA G1 one should be able to come up with the winner with 3 choices. Worth persevering with from a personal point of view. Anyway, no luck overnight (but lots of placings!) so it's Sha Tin here we come. Just a few small one-out doubles and a treble or 2.
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Some good betting races to look out for tonight & tomorrow ... mostly G1 & G2 racing tonight whilst tomorrow the highlighted races from Sha Tin are C2 & C3 ($390k/$265k) Doncaster (UK) 3.00pm & 3.35pm (add 9 hours for AEST) The Curragh (Ire) 2.00pm, 3.10pm, 3.40pm, 4.10pm, 4.45pm & 5.15pm (add 9 hours for AEST) Sha Tin (Sunday) Races 7, 8, 9 & 10
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Lean pickings by the sounds of it today ... got a few late winners but a little down overall for the day. We couldn't take a trick with our tips Wadda although JV came through with a winner in the last at Adelaide. Still, there is lots of group racing at Leopardstown (Ire) & Doncaster (UK) tonight so there's a chance for the recoup. I'll post up a bit of a preview later on Sha tin tomorrow as well ... the quaddie legs look enticing! I'm not done with yet!
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Rothfire! Wow, what a horse! Thought it was overs even at $4.50 The Everest for this one. Sharp as.