Macca

So much depends on whether we win next week against Freo ... win and the numbers are in our favour. We'd gain confidence from a win on the road and suddenly, our last 3 games won't look as difficult Win and we'd probably still be in a top 2 position and be in a position to defend that position But if we lose the numbers will be against us and we'd then need to win our remaining games (or at least 2 of the 3) and be relying on other teams dropping games Lose and we could (in theory) slip to 5th by the end of next week's round of games. Forget the ladder predictor, we cannot assume that the good teams will lose games (unless the good teams are playing each other) Lose and that will mark 6 losses from our last 9 games. Do teams win flags with that sort of mid year win/loss ratio? We are still top 2 and we can't be happy about settling for a top 4 spot instead ... that's a defeatest attitude. Once you start believing that a loss isn't too bad, you've lost the battle

Salem will regain his best form, he's just not there yet Nothing to do with his role because what is missing are his first 2 steps. Right now he's a bit slow out of the blocks It's a problem right across the team ... in various games this season we've looked a bit slow & tired But not always of course. I don't believe in excuses but I do believe in reasons. In simple terms the team needs to rediscover it's best form Teams that play that manic style with 2-way running from all the players will eventually run out of steam What did happen last night was that the Bulldogs finished full of running and we didn't ... same story when we played Freo, Syd, Pies & Cats And all that has happened in the last 2 months

Salem needs to regain that quick 2 step he previously possessed that created time for himself to deliver the ball without being under undue pressure Since having that injury he's often looked slow and rushed. Those penetrating kicks of his into the forward 50 are virtually non existent But he's not on his own in that area ... a number of our players just aren't playing to the level that they were last season Tonight we kicked 1 goal in the last quarter when the game was up for grabs. The opposition ran out the game and looked fitter and faster as the game went on As someone else mentioned here earlier, that's now 5 games where we've been overrun in the 2nd half. Over an 8 game stretch Big game next week. It will be like a final with a lot riding on the result. If we don't win we're in trouble

Not 1 tackle in the F50 ... that would be totally unacceptable at suburban level So much for our small forwards applying pressure. Tonight it was non existent. Weideman, Melksham & Fritsch aren't the tackling types either. Harmes plays from behind when he's forward. Weideman disappears. As does Melksham Bulldogs were too good and too slick. Their skills were far superior to ours and we once again ran out of legs. They were just too good for us. The opposition took numerous uncontested marks in our forward line and then ran it out with ease We really do need to fix our forward line woes. The set-up we've got resembles that which a bottom team might have. There's no big forward presence so the opposition take full advantage And where are our front and centre small men for the spoiled marking contests? I can't spot them because they are not there When the game was up for grabs and when the heat was applied, our forward line once again became dysfunctional. 4 goals vs 8 goals in the 2nd half in a free scoring affair Our tactic ... bomb it forward and hope for the best The pressure is now on to win next Friday night ... lose and we could slip out of the top 4. And if that happens we'll then need to win at least 2 of our last 3 (vs Coll, vs Carl & at Lions) as well as needing other teams to drop games. The double-chance is slipping away

Both Weideman & Melksham heavily involved Great to see!

At the end of the season if Freo finish behind Collingwood by half a game (but with a much better percentage) then last night's draw will have cost them

I wouldn't be assuming that the percentage can't be made up ... Freo had 2 potential percentage boosters to finish the season so unless there is another draw, those potential percentage boosters are now irrelevant ... so that advantage is gone too Teams above Freo that lose games lose percentage as well A draw is obviously better than a loss but a win is still a better result As it stands, at this time of the year it could be assumed that all your rivals will keep winning thus continually gaining 4 premiership points So therefore, drawing the game last night has probably cost Freo a top 2 spot ... and that's ultra valuable Also, one of their closest rival for a top 4 spot (Pies with a poor percentage) can now go half a win clear if they defeat Essendon tomorrow

Sometimes a draw is quite helpful as it was when Collingwood drew with us in 2010 ... after that draw all the Pies had to do was concentrate on winning without the need to work on their percentage They had a very good team so a top 4 or top 2 position on the ladder was almost assured They had the opportunity to rest their stars in the last quarter's of games (saving the legs) ... and that's what they did from my observations But this draw for Freo has come late in the season and now they are relying on a team or 2 losing a game or 2 Unless the Bombers upset the Pies and/or the Lions lose against the Suns, they will be in 5th place by the end of the round (after starting the round in 4th place)

It's not just our team that benefits from Freo drawing the game Freo were 4th heading into tonight's game ... level on premiership points with Collingwood but with a much healthier percentage But if the Pies win on Sunday against Essendon and the Lions win (as expected) against the Suns then Freo will drop to 5th and out of the double-chance position (at least, temporarily) Therefore, taking their own destiny out of their own hands (at least in the short term)

Here's an example as to why the draw hurts Freo If they had have won tonight (and we beat the dogs) then they'd end up 1 win behind us (and percentage) So if that happens (or had have happened) the game next week could see Freo move above us on the ladder if they defeat us by a big enough margin (say, for instance, a 12 goal win) But because of the draw tonight, that can't happen (assuming we defeat the doggies) They would be 1 & a half wins behind us so it wouldn't matter how much the margin of victory might be next week

Freo drawing suits us ... serves as a loss for them in all reality. More so in relation to the teams above them If we win tomorrow night and then defeat Freo next week they would then be 2 and a half wins behind us with 4 games to play in the season (instead of just 2 wins behind) So the ball is our court ... we control our own destiny as they've just dropped 2 valuable premiership points Of course we have to win tomorrow night (first of all)

Gawn just has to be played as a permanent forward for this game

What a mightmare it turned out to be ... hard to believe that we didn't unearth 1 topliner with all those picks in the top 20 I accept the whole development angle and we weren't a greatly run club (prior to AFL intervention ... PJ & Roos) but you'd reckon that at least a couple of players could have shone through (?) And then in steps JT turning draft picks into gold. A big attribute of his has been his ability to turn 1st & 2nd round picks into solid talent (and premiership players) Brown, Langdon, Hibberd, Melksham, Tomlinson, May, Lever all came to the club using draft picks that would have otherwise been used on 18yo's As well as of course drafting 18yo's that have turned up trumps ... Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca, Jackson, Kossie, Rivers, Bowey, Salem and various others JT is a real success story and we have a lot to thank him for But I highly doubt he'd be happy if we only ended up with pick 19 for Brayshaw And I'm with Redleg, we won't be losing him

We keep ridin' the JT train, rjay The bloke has got a great eye for talent Up there with Wells, Clayton & the Richmond recruiter

All the draftees tried their best ... but that's the vagaries of drafting Since that time we've done extra well It's a bit like betting on the horses!

And a pick around the 20 mark might deliver players such as Tapscott, Blease, Maric or Strauss (for a proven player like Brayshaw) Hope you enjoy that little flashback, folks! haha

Picks 10-12 could deliver a player like Lucas Cook, Gysberts, Weideman or Clark Busts are a part of drafting and need to be factored in. Doing so (factoring in the busts) is good business practice In a general sense draft picks are severely overrated ... and the points system adds fuel to the fire If it comes to it I'd want a pick around the 6-8 mark for Brayshaw And that pick has a 50% chance of being a bust anyway That's the truth and that's what the data tells us (historically)

If we lost Brayshaw to free agency then we could get as little as pick 19 (or worse) in return in compensation But there is a good chance that his management (the same as Luke Jackson's) is eyeing off a bigger salary if LJ departs In the meantime, he's quite entitled to test the market to see what he's possibly worth That's pro sports

@layzie@Clintosaurus @WERRIDEE @Vipercrunch Good match-up on 9GemHD tonight Eels (6th) vs Broncos (5th) ... at the new Commbank Stadium in Parramatta

The Buddy contract comparison is a trifle misleading as well He'd almost certainly command a much bigger salary these days. The new upcoming salary cap will be a lot more compared to 10 years ago. Probably a $15Million contract rather than $10Million back in 2013 (in my view) Also, Buddy was a free agent so there was no trade ... if it was a trade then Hawthorn would have rightfully demanded a lot more than the paltry compensation that they received (pick 19?) Back then (if they were able to trade Franklin) they might have been asking for 2 top 10 picks and a good player in a trade (as a minimum)

I agree but Jackson has enormous potential and a huge upside His game against the Lions just a few weeks ago gave us a glimpse on how good he can be If it comes to it the club should take the stance that we are selling a star ... and you never sell yourself short

He could be elite and if the offer is true, that's what they'll be investing in Personally, I believe he could be great player as he has all the basic requirements. So we might be losing a real talent, regardless Marking the bloke down is a natural tendency especially if we know he is leaving. We won't want him to be exceptional in those circumstances But it's my belief that he is not necessarily gone anyway. Freo still have to come to the party. If not, we'll reach a stalemate

I'm predicting a stalemate unless they can somehow come up with the currency And it is looking like LJ might be on the move especially if the money offer is close to the truth ... it's a life changing amount if true (and everyone has a price) But we can play hardball and just on that, the 2 clubs might have an in principle deal on the table ... if Freo can come up with what we want, they get him And our ambit claim might be quite substantial But I'm speculating of course because in reality I know diddly squat!!

It's a good point you make ... the trade needs to in some ways match the dollars in the new contract elsewhere (if it all goes that way) And if it's a huge amount then the value in dollar terms should equal a similar value in picks and players An example at the lower end of the scale might be something like a 3rd or 4th round pick for a player being offered a 2 year deal elsewhere on below average money It's mere speculation but what would fair compensation be for a former no.3 pick who might be getting offered $10.5Million over 8 years elsewhere?

Eddie never makes any sense when he goes into supporter mode Tries to justify his alarmist comments with more alarmist conclusions He's a walking contradiction I'm not sure I've ever met a reasonably minded Collingwood supporter though. They are all a law unto themselves with chips on their shoulders the size of Mars