Demon Dynasty

As you say Jnr, predictability certainly has its benefits. It may have, and probably has, taken us a long way in 2021 and played a significant part in seeing us still top of the ladder as we speak. However as the season wears on and opp analysts have had the chance to break us down with over 17/18 weeks of data, plus watching the evidence on video using those teams that have had the most success, they start to prepare a little better and begin to find creative ways of chipping away at our strengths and enhance a few of there own to suit our predictability. The alternative wing should be used more often as you say. Put dogga out there with Lingers and a crumber, Kozzie , and at least hit that side up occasionally to keep the opp guessing and not just hitting up a crowded out LHS so often (always looking for Big Maxy). My other two bug bears are the predictability with which we use the left side then kick it in to that left hand pocket / flank far too often IMV. It allows the opp to easily set their defence / zone and bias it for that side of the ground....with ease as that's pretty much their only major focus. Makes their role and objectives pretty straight forward IMV and just doesn't ask enough questions of the individuals and their match ups either. Nor does it allow many of our forwards to try and expose their opponents one out often enough either IMV. Too easily defended and we usually have so many heading/leading to that side making it extremely difficult to score. We should, as a minimum, hold at least one KF and a medium/small on the fat side in case we get past / or through their down the line defenders or even go inside and open up the ground quickly. Allowing that free deep player around the arc or through the middle to kick to fat/favoured side and hit that KF/medium or small up or even better where possible, over the top for the joe-the-goose. I understand it may be a ploy that works alot of the time and allows us to lock the ball in / set up behind and then all going well gain repeat entries. However if your ability to convert a goal from that strat is so small, say15% / 20% or thereabouts (just guessing here no solid data), then the opp only needs to find a way through it on say one out of every 3 entries and they're likely to catch us out on the counter if they transition quickly and cleanly, especially through the middle. They will likely score a goal themselves here and all that effort, including 2 to 4 repeat entries, is for nought. Possibly break even at best. Taking this further, why would you look to kick almost always to the skinny pocket / flank IF you're not going to place manic pressure on your oppo defenders once the ball hits the ground? No doubt we probably attempt to bring this pressure as often as possible but in recent times i just don't think we've either shown it or been capable of keeping that heat up for very long during quarters. From the outside it is difficult to know what the exact strat/instructions are from Coach/s to their playing groups so who knows they might be demanding this manic pressure from most/all forwards (and mids) and this is where we are falling down as some may not be capable or able to for long enough. Some not capable at all? Or they might be doing exactly as asked and just playing the 1.5 diamond rolling zone or whatever it is. I'm pretty sure the latter is in play for kick ins which is understandable for parts of a game as it's probably impossible to enforce man on man for an entire match and may leave the defence too exposed out the back on a fast break also. Although the Hawks did seem to bring this on Sat night with great effect so not sure why it's not possible for us to achieve, at least for a large % of a match. If the coach is driving this loose team zone defence set up in our forward half on kick ins then IMHO i really can't see that strat getting us very far in a pressure cooker that is finals against highly rated teams/players. Other than for small patches and certainly not at the start of a match when it's critical to press the opp deep in their defence early IMO in order to effect early turnovers and score from them in order to pile on some scoreboard pressure. History shows that any 3 to 4 goal lead in a first quarter results in a win about 7 to 8 times out of ten. It's extremely hard to peg back and go on to win from there. Especially in a final or GF.

It's funny we all see things diff LDC. I was actually quite pleasantly surprised at Kozzie's % given he's only into his second year. It's some of the other more senior fellows that are stinking it up that, for me, are more of a concern. Melk, Viney, Clarry, Gawny and Gus the main offenders. Not that we rely on Gus just that his % is bottom of the barrel stuff... at 33% or so i might get it. Gawn's % also pretty much fits the bill but would have hoped he might have improved a little here and at least be hitting at around 40% or thereabouts.

I'm not expecting miracles but the impression i get from some is that they're just not fussed whether they hit or miss. Especially Clarry. I've always said if he can bring reasonable goal kicking returns to his arsenol he'll go down as one of the great MFC players. Have a feeling this might be for all shots taken not just set shots W11.

I wouldn't mind if it was a decent spread Jnr and matched reasonably closely with other top teams in terms if where they're taking their shots from. Does anyone have access to set shot spread info / percentages by any chance for us vs others in the comp? Also the middle is often well covered by the spare defender nowadays meaning the chances of hitting someone up directly in front after the 666 abates (shortly after the bounce) becomes a tad more difficult vs say 20 odd years ago or more when some of the iconic KFs were still operating or coming to the end of their hiatus.

I posted this in PF's other accuracy thread. I'm not sure if this is all shots at goal or just set shots. Probably all. 50/50 ends with Langdon. Not really enough shots from Sparrow and def not enough from Mitch to really gauge how they fair at this stage.... MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18 Player SG GAC % 2021 Rank B Fritsch 56 62.5 1 T Sparrow 7 57.1 2 L Jackson 16 56.3 3 T McDonald 51 54.9 4 M Brown 4 50.0 5 E Langdon 22 50.0 5 J Harmes 11 45.5 7 K Pickett 59 44.1 8 A Neil-Bullen 25 44.0 9 B Brown 14 42.9 10 J Jordan 15 40.0 11 J Hunt 5 40.0 11 C Petracca 49 38.8 13 J Melksham 13 38.5 14 C Spargo 28 35.7 15 T Rivers 3 33.3 16 M Gawn 24 33.3 16 J Viney 6 33.3 16 C Salem 6 33.3 16 S Weideman 10 30.0 20 N Jones 7 28.6 21 C Oliver 22 27.3 22 A Brayshaw 13 15.4 23 SG = Shots at Goal GAC = Goal Accuracy %

They both can't kick more than about 35 meters with any accuracy. 40 plus they rarely make the distance. That's why Spargo dumped the kick to the goal square. Didn't believe he would make the distance. If these flaws are being shown up in a H&A game against a cellar dweller, imagine what will happen in a final. Gus also needs to do something with his set shot kicking. Bloody awful.

MFC Goal Accuracy % Rankings - Season 2021 up to and including Round 18 Player SG GAC % 2021 Rank B Fritsch 56 62.5 1 T Sparrow 7 57.1 2 L Jackson 16 56.3 3 T McDonald 51 54.9 4 M Brown 4 50.0 5 E Langdon 22 50.0 5 J Harmes 11 45.5 7 K Pickett 59 44.1 8 A Neil-Bullen 25 44.0 9 B Brown 14 42.9 10 J Jordan 15 40.0 11 J Hunt 5 40.0 11 C Petracca 49 38.8 13 J Melksham 13 38.5 14 C Spargo 28 35.7 15 T Rivers 3 33.3 16 M Gawn 24 33.3 16 J Viney 6 33.3 16 C Salem 6 33.3 16 S Weideman 10 30.0 20 N Jones 7 28.6 21 C Oliver 22 27.3 22 A Brayshaw 13 15.4 23 SG = Shots at Goal GAC = Goal Accuracy %

Clarry by a country mile (set shots). Clarry, Spargo and Kozzie should almost always look to dish the ball off to anyone if they aren't 30 meters out or less. I would even get them to go backwards if needed they are that bad.

There is something to be said here. Also that brain snap decision to kick to the space that Spargo had lead to 4 seconds prior which he initially ignored .... with only a Hawk then present taking the resulting pass to Spargo's shadow!?? His tapping appears to be just that.....a tap anywhere. And his only other option at this point is to bash it forward where the opp often has a defensive sweeper who often then gets first use and/or runs off with it on the counter. Time to get down & dirty and play smarter footy big boy!

Weighted Average Scores up to & including Rnd 18, 2021 vs 2019 Dogga the worry in the last three matches dropping from a rank of 15 in round 15 to a lowly 21st now. Given he had 15 games under his belt at Rnd 15 that's a fairly significant fall (statistically) with averages in play. Do we risk bringing in Melk for Dogga who can hit up players inside 50 at times and also occasionally hit the scoreboard himself? I like Dogga's work in the middle though! We do need a player who can finish with that kick coming inside. We're pretty ordinary in this area. Max then plays almost a full game in the middle/around the ground with occasional chop out up forward from Macca. Melk in for Dogga allows Melk and Kozzie to mix it up, sharing a role through the middle and HF? Also, what happens when Harmes becomes available once more? Who goes out assuming he is straight back in? I would think he would come straight back given his form since coming in. Does ANB miss for Harmes and AVB stays? Player 2021 Score 2021 Rank 2019 Score % Change vs 2019 2019 Rank Change in Rank vs 2019 C Oliver 5.303 1 4.643 14.21 1 0 C Salem 4.142 2 3.658 13.23 3 1 Steven May 4.077 3 2.446 66.68 14 11 C Petracca 3.999 4 2.616 52.87 10 6 Jake Lever 3.619 5 2.313 56.46 17 12 J Harmes 3.513 6 3.850 -8.75 2 -4 A Vandenberg* 3.475 7 Max Gawn # 3.440 8 3.256 5.65 4 -4 Ed Langdon 3.338 9 Jack Viney 3.158 10 3.068 2.93 5 -5 A Brayshaw 3.104 11 2.894 7.26 6 -5 James Jordan 3.044 12 T McDonald # 2.669 13 2.150 24.14 19 6 Trent Rivers 2.519 14 Jayden Hunt 2.516 15 1.958 28.50 22 7 M Brown* 2.475 16 A Tomlinson 2.475 16 M Hibberd 2.469 18 2.124 16.24 20 2 K Pickett 2.407 19 Oskar Baker* 2.325 20 1.714 35.65 29 9 L Jackson # 2.298 21 Nathan Jones 2.214 22 2.711 -18.33 7 -15 Alex N-Bullen 2.212 23 1.984 11.49 21 -2 Tom Sparrow 2.155 24 1.075 100.47 37 13 Bayley Fritsch 2.091 25 2.641 -20.83 9 -16 Charlie Spargo 2.041 26 1.375 48.44 35 9 H Petty 2.016 27 1.905 5.83 24 -3 J Melksham 1.984 28 1.931 2.74 23 -5 Neville Jetta 1.865 29 2.264 -17.62 18 -11 Ben Brown # 1.650 30 S Weideman 1.055 31 1.818 -41.97 27 -4 K Chandler* 0.250 32 Hit outs to advantage not captured * Only played one match not an average score Stats courtesy of footywire.com

Yep.... and how many shots Basics....some have gotten lazy. Maybe not all matches or in a row but its been happening here and there. Tracc even admitted this on 360 when questioned about the differences between what's put out on the track vs the loss against the Giants and the win against the Power. With that laziness to defend comes a drop in form for the player which then ripples through the team. Others are watching the example / effort and probably thinking they too can back off a little. All of a sudden it's spreading through too many like a bad dose of NSW delta! With a drop off in form confidence then goes with it to some degree. You then start to see some players playing selfish footy for their future (fringe) or if not, just looking to rack up cheap stats so it looks as if they've had a reasonable game post match, win lose or draw. Basic premise is... If you back it off even by a few percent (eg; choosing when to white line it/run hard both ways and do the 1%ers) you risk losing your (and potentially the entire team's) form and then your mojo. It's also partly a balance/skill issue as well though. Confidence will come the more you convert your efforts up forward and get rewarded. When this goes the other way it also effects the entire teams confidence.....maybe not at first but it would have a cumulative effect over a meaningful period or even in game at times. This last part needs fixing....and fast.

As i said this three or four weeks ago.... Get Gary Ablett Jnr in! Run some deliberate sessions over the next 4 to 5 weeks for all designated forwards and mids. Even some of the defenders like Lingers and May (missed that fairly straight forward one a few weeks back). Every little improvement could be the diff between a win or loss in a finals scenario. Or the last few matches to get us into the four or the top two! Any coach worth his salt would be addressing this elephant in the room. It will end up costing us at season's end (finals also). You can see it coming!

Rnd 18, 2021 MCG - Demons vs Hawks Our last three matches (team weighted score) have been on average about 5% up on our abysmal 2019 season average. And about 6.8% off our season average so far this year (to Rnd 17). That's a number that won't cut it in Finals. Let's hope some of the boys are able to take it to another level in the last few rounds. DE% of 66.7% against the Hawks is also way off the AFL average of approx 73%. Again you will struggle against most teams with that sort of skill level. Previous weeks it was 74% (Power) and 75.4% (Giants). Against the Giants we again failed to make the most of our forward entries however. So it shows it doesn't matter what you do up the ground. If you aren't delivering / converting very well you're toast. Spargo was our best ball user (outside of defenders) running at 81.8% efficiency with ANB our worst offender at 46.2% Might have gone a little heavy on the engagement celebrations! A few other stats worth noting ... Turnover Kings ? Clarry headed this up with a massive 10! Followed by Viney 8, Lever JJ & Hibb on 6 each Score Involvements ? Gus 9, Kozzie 8, AVB & Spargo on 7, Tracc & Fritta on 6 Tackles ? Viney the stand out here with a massive 11. Next best Clarry with 6. Dropped off from there. Marks inside 50 ? Fritta the main target here with 4. I doubt we'll win too many big games (finals) with him as the main target but who knows. Player Score Rank C Oliver 4.800 1 C Petracca 4.700 2 Jack Viney 4.400 3 Jake Lever 4.350 4 C Salem 3.975 5 A Brayshaw 3.675 6 A Vandenberg 3.475 7 K Pickett 3.125 8 Max Gawn # 2.975 9 C Spargo 2.900 10 Steven May 2.850 11 Trent Rivers 2.500 12 Bayley Fritsch 2.300 13 Jayden Hunt 2.275 14 M Hibberd 2.250 15 Ed Langdon 2.225 16 H Petty 2.175 17 Ben Brown 2.025 18 James Jordon 1.875 19 T McDonald # 1.250 20 Alex N-Bullen 1.050 21 Luke Jackson # 1.000 22 Team Score 62.15 Top 6 25.90 Bottom 6 9.38 # Hit outs to advantage not captured Stats courtesy of footywire.com

....Error

The expectation psycho factor is still there that's for sure. Look at every game we've been expected to win and win comfortably. We've either struggled to do so and played poorly or bean beaten/drew.

Lockhart way before Bowey. Can't see it though. Rivers was pretty ordinary tonight. Wasn't alone however. Played as individuals instead of a committed team. We are back to losing the matches we're going in to as big favourites. Back to type?? (2020 and prior). It's all about match hardness and preparation (on track / off track as well as above the shoulders). The Hawks had nothing to play for tonight. They just wanted it more, and got more numbers to the drop of the ball, in support and on the outer layer. They worked hard with and without the ball. As for us, each week some of our blokes are picking and choosing when they're going to turn up. Three of the biggest offenders of late are Tracc, Clarry and Lingers. Tracc defensively went missing for most of the match against GWS. Then turns up for the Port game. Then plays ok against the 2nd worst team in the comp. We played like a bunch of individual selfish amateurs. Aside from about 5 to 8 minutes in the first quarter where, as an outsider looking in knowing nothing about ladder position, there wasnt any other part of the match where you would say we were clearly the better team and had gone into the match as odds on favs. We made the Hawks look like winners and they're one of the worst going around at present. Same thing happened against the Roos. We might be the Demons in name but mentally we've been shown up as pretty flakey when the heat is turned up, even by relatively ordinary or bog ordinary opposition.

The elephant in the room. Worst thing is we've had 18 rounds to improve but haven't. At the end of the day we keep coming back to the forward line being the main reason for most of our ills. So one has to look at the players concerned as a whole. Are they really interested in improving in this area and taking their game (and the team's) to the next level? I'm sure some might be and might be putting in some extra work off the main training sessions. But are they? If not why not? Especially those that have an awful record (ie; most of them). Improve this aspect and we win another two games this year and would be well clear on top. No chance of missing top two or four. As much as i loathe the Cats I'll give them this. They're mostly pretty accurate at their set shot kicking and it does get them out of plenty of trouble much of the time. They seem to pride themselves on it and ice/win plenty of matches by being super accurate here with pretty decent kicking boots anywhere inside 50. Is it partly to do with the method as GTB pointed out earlier..... Go the Biff Posted 4 minutes ago Same bloke who's delivered our poxy F50 strategy - that being all the talls run to the one spot & we kick it on their heads What a pox it was tonight! Talk about amateur hour. Both talls also playing from behind almost the entire evening. No doubt we are diabolical up forward in so many aspects. Bad kicking is bad footy. Both coming inside on the last kick (Spargo aside....and occasionally Melk when he's in and firing a little) and set shots at goal. Has cost us at least two H&A matches so far (this one and GWS) and will also cost us in finals if not addressed in the next four rounds. How much of our forward woes lie with Stafford? Is he the weak link at the coaching level? It's been a constant issue for far too long now.

Jnr far too many players (Spargo, Clarry, Gus, Kozzie ANB et al) can't kick from distance to save themselves. It's been our Achilles all year and shows no sign of abating. Good sides kick about 50/50 of these and that allows them to put these teams away. Our set shot kicking from 40ish or less from pretty much any angle would have to be up there with the worst or we are possibly the worst. And that's set shot kicking from 40 or less. Anything outside of that forget it. Aside from BB (if he doesn't lose his head like tonight), T-Mac or Tracc (IF he can keep his and not constantly play on every time) we have virtually no chance of converting no matter who takes the set shot. Just one of many reasons but it played a big part in costing us tonight and will continue to do so for as long as they ignore it.

And Kozzie, Gus and Clarry (from set shots). Clarry needs a foot up the [censored]. Spargo marks that ball in front of him and he's whining on the way out. Accept he probably didn't see you there and encourage. Awful awful look and hardly part of their so called 'team first' mantra. How bout you stop with the Hollywood over the head handballs mate and also learn how to kick a set shot (even an occasional one) from 30 to 40 out straight in front or on very slight angles!??? Tracc...for christ sake learn how to give off the first option instead of trying to break two to three tackles so often. You aren't Dusty mate. And any chance you could kick a ball softly coming inside 50 instead of drilling it into no man's land or over our forwards heads? Or even worse straight to the opp!! And as for Viney's kicking inside. My God. Don't get me started. He's an asset to the opposition here. Almost always straight to the opp even when surrounded by an opponent or two/three! No wonder we can't snuff teams out. With two kicks off HB from one of the worst teams in the comp, they split our defence apart both through the middle and inside 50 and were taking a shot at goal. Luckily they missed. Basic but smart/slick footy using hard leads with some skilled kicks and lowered vision. This is going to take a momentus change in attitude along with some super hard work with set ups/skills (particularly by foot and balance in the middle) to get this mob right, ripe and ready if we're to have any chance of not going out in straight sets. The forward line has always been a mess. And we've now been beaten in the middle by the 2nd worst team in the comp. Goodwin now making excuses that the opp needs to be respected & they've been playing really well of late. Come on mate who you kidding. Go take a long hard look in the mirror and stick a rocket up this team's arze on the track for christ sake. A few changes also. Time for softly softly Mr Nice guy is not now. Stick it up em mentally! They were soft as butter tonight bar a few and so was your preparation and game set ups. Anything less than a PF win/GF is a fail from here.

The experienced players all failed us tonight. Zero leadership across the board. Any way you look at it that's a huge win for the Hawks and a terrible loss for this club. Yet another to a bottom 4 club. Clarry has a chance to go wide to a possible advantage side when no one was straight ahead in front of the square and possibly lock the ball in our 50 with 3 min to go. Where does he go? Front of the square. Guess what....ball comes straight back out. Lever takes an intercept with 2 min to go. Player or two miles in the clear on his left that he could kick to and have us maintain possession on the fat side (MCC flank) but instead doesn't even look and goes straight down the line for a contest and the turnover. Back it comes for their goal to draw the game. Who would of thought. Second to the ball far too often at the ball ups/ins. Viney was constantly drawn to the inside of his opponent allowing him to get to the outside and clear the ball/run off into their forward half. He has lost half a yard (this season ...probably due to the injury) and is for the most part ineffective. AVB in was a fail for mine. He just doesn't have the legs at this level to damage anyone at any stage. He'll provide a contest when ball is in close but that's about where it ends. Bring Melk in and him and Kozzie can share the role. The sooner Harmes is available the better. He is a must in for Viney who unfortunately adds zero to our inside / outside mid set up (much needed requirement). I would bring Oskar in for Gus (anyone can play a kick behind and fill a gap...it's what you do with it from there that counts) and Chunk (if he can get fully fit) in for ANB who gave us absolutely zero tonight and had to be shifted off the oldest guy in the Hawks line up. I would also drop Lingers and give Joel Smith a few matches. Lingers is now playing losing footy (since returning) and needs a reset/rocket. Nice ride so far but too many holes and fumbly/second rate players when the heart is turned up. Too many who can't kick accurately and/or make the distance from 35/40 out . Finally, Goody was severely out coached by the master tonight. How you allow your two KFs to play mostly from the goal square and mostly from behind flying for the same long bombs time and time again tonight (especially at center square bounces) is beyond the pale. Same with the mids who were like bears to a honey pot and got sucked in to the contests far too often. But not only that very few were first to the ball. I reckon Maxy would have gotten to more contests than most today! On a PF day IF we were to make one, which i highly doubt, these are the poor set ups, methods that kill you. Along with a lack of desperation and clean ball use most of the night. Too much headless chook panic fumble footy to beat a decent opponent in a big final from here for mine.

Lever has a chance to hit a loose player out wide after that intercept. Instead...hang on to it and kicks down the line to a contest. What a dumb piece of play!!!

When will our forwards who can't kick beyond 40 from a set shot, recognise this and dish it off to a better kicker even if it's lateral!!!!??‽???????????????????

Kozzie can't kick beyond 40. Hand it off son!!!

Lever picks out a Hawk in all that

Viney another nothing tumble punt inside 50