Demon Dynasty

So Clarko to Port then!!

You are more easily pleased than me. At least 5 decades or more ty.

Amen to that Mr Old

Why are we going to such lengths when Tassie have opened their borders to Vic's with no quarantine! Can hold the game there without all the bulkshiiite.

That's a completely different role than trying to blood him at CHB in the last four rounds 58. I wouldn't be averse to the above for a short trial for LJ to see how he goes. Having said that, it needed to happen this week IMV. Actually make that about two weeks ago!

Thanks Ox. Interesting that Max's intercept marking starting falling away (or appeared to) from about Rnd 6. Where are you sourcing those from? Stats pro?

Probably unsustainable Garbo but it's the degree to which some have dropped off that, while not panic stations just yet, certainly appears to be in need of some serious attention. And stating the obvious here but the other factor is of course our inability to conmect/and or convert the good work up the field (or maybe not so good work if we can't connect when the opp arises). If that continues, which it has till now, it's eventually going to effect the team psyche and confidence. If it hasn't already done so.

You haven't been here very long NN have you

Too late for a major switch up this year me thinks Earl. He's a decent performer at VFL and appears very comfortable at that level. Unfortunately to this point he's been unable to handle the step up to seniors.

Just to cheer you up a little more only 5 of those were effective PF. I would have trialed Lockhart in place of Spargo this week. Send a message to the group that no one is safe....stop coasting! He is also a good ball user when he gets it PF. But to quote a great Dyerism... “He keeps getting where the ball ‘aint.”

Would prefer Chunk in when fit...he's still a step up in intensity for longer in matches vs Sparrow for mine.

Uh yeh pretty sure no one is suggesting Melk in the ruck lol. You don't rest Max by playing up forward either. There's probably as much if not more running involved if he's to be effective on the night. Pretty sure Max can at least 'manage' against a rookie opponent in the ruck without raising too much of a sweat with a few chop outs from Macca in the middle and BB when the ball's inside our 50. Especially with the Sons bringing in 3 rookies and a debutant this week. Bringing in Melk for a hit out in case needed for the last few rounds or finals (injury back up) wouldn't be the worst option IMV. Also see whether our best kick coming inside 50 might be able to connect with the likes of BB and the other forwards prior to deciding on our optimal mix for finals. We've obviously decided to rest Hibb & Jordy with their form dropping the last few weeks. Adding LJ to the list (for this week given the opponent) was a no brainer for mine. There's no point flogging a dead horse whose confidence is down! Young fella is in desperate need of a curcuit breaker / freshen up before the last few rounds against higher rated opponents / finals IMO.

Playing is not resting/resetting LN. These two are easily the most out of form in the team post the bye and the young fella needs it even more so. We need to win three of our last four to ensure a top four / top two spot. Set them up for a run at that post the Sons. This was the ideal chance to rest LJ at least, and give Melk a run in case we need him to cover someone later. Opportunity missed.

LJ should have been managed this week for Melk or Daw. He hit the wall a few weeks back

LJ is very much in need of a refresh break that's for sure. IMHO Max needs one also. Not going to happen but Daw for one week to cover those two and Melk as the in for LJ up forward wouldn't have hurt against the sons.

I also think he's unlucky to miss ahead of Bowey Mel after watching him in a number of Casey games. Appeared ripe to me

At the end of the day looking from the outside who knows what the real reason/s is/are behind our form slump. However i thought i'd take a look at the numbers pre / post bye given our amazing run before vs the not so great after. While i don't expect this will provide any answers and is in no way a perfect snapshot / science of where every player is at, this might provide us with some sort of rough idea of where each player is tracking pre / post the bye. I've been tracking / tinkering and fine tuning these weighted composite averages now since 2017 and they do seem to track (very roughly) where each player is at in a match or a block of matches or the entire season (give or take a few rungs while also missing out on some of the nuances that stats often miss like someone playing a lock down role, playing a completely different role than usual to help out the team or coming back from a medium/long lay off though injury etc eg; Viney). I have placed the table in order of the player who has deviated the most (highest %) vs his form pre the bye. As you can see our two big fellas appear to have hit a wall post the break. I'm not to worried about 12% and below given this method is not doubt imperfect and i'm sure players can make up 10% to 12% if they lift in coming weeks. But something around the 15% mark or higher, at least for me, should probably be setting off an alarm bell or two! The other concern is....there is alot of red here regardless... Player Pre Bye Score Pre Bye Rank Post Bye Score % Change Post Bye Post Bye Rank Change in Rank Post Bye L Jackson 2.523 14 1.645 -34.80 22 -8 Max Gawn 3.637 5 2.755 -24.24 10 -5 A N-Bullen 2.294 18 1.815 -20.89 20 -2 M Hibberd 2.633 13 2.085 -20.82 17 -4 Ed Langdon 3.373 9 2.825 -16.24 9 0 Jack Viney 3.450 8 2.985 -13.48 8 0 J Harmes 3.632 6 3.163 -12.92 6 0 K Pickett 2.475 16 2.175 -12.12 15 1 C Oliver 5.423 1 4.775 -11.95 1 0 J Jordan 2.888 11 2.585 -10.51 12 -1 T McDonald 2.662 12 2.525 -5.13 13 -1 C Petracca 3.960 4 3.875 -2.14 5 -1 A Brayshaw 3.060 10 3.010 -1.62 7 3 J Hunt 2.413 17 2.410 -0.14 14 3 C Spargo 2.033 20 2.030 -0.13 18 2 Steven May 4.040 2 4.045 0.12 4 -2 H Petty 1.950 21 1.975 1.28 19 2 B Fritsch 2.058 19 2.090 1.54 16 3 C Salem 4.019 3 4.190 4.26 2 1 T Rivers 2.481 15 2.705 9.04 11 4 Ben Brown 1.575 22 1.733 10.03 21 1 Jake Lever 3.513 7 4.105 16.84 3 4 Team Score 66.09 61.50 -6.95

Thanks JCW. I think whoever had that solid win against us (vs the flukey one by the Crows) was always going to get plenty of coverage but there might be something in aspects of the way the Pies played in that win. One thing that stood out to me from this article, and i have no idea how truthful or otherwise it is.... ...."Then came the loss to the Western Bulldogs, a fellow premiership fancy, on Saturday night, when the Demons, as is their style, were content to allow their opponents to have more numbers at stoppages and the Dogs responded by booting 46 points from clearances, an issue Goodwin said there were “simple solutions” to resolve. The Demons prefer to try and win the ball back with extra numbers behind the ball if beaten at the clearances - a Richmond trait."... Is it as simple as bringing up an extra number (or even two?) around stoppages then kicking dirty ball into our defenders so they can't defend as easily? The other side to this is, unless our mids are performing close to their absolute best, then the extra one or two at stoppage is going to be a big advantage. I noticed Spargo spending a bit more time higher up the field against the dogs. Was that an early entre' adjustment by the FD, bringing up a small forward to counter the opp's extra influence around stoppage? Also are our mids not being allowed to perform at their best as a result of the extra number/s or are they somewhat off the boil? Some of them not all. Tracc is still going ok IMV but that's about it. Clarry playing very well in patches but still not at his best for the year of late. Harmes (albeit one week back from an injury and requires another week or two to settle), Viney & Jordan struggling. With Viney IMHO looking alot better up forward. I would have him playing mostly up forward and at this point look to bring Kozzie up for more mid time along with significant assistance, with say Chunk (in a week or so) or Vanders to replace Jordan if his form continues to drop away.

A must have in every player's arsenal & super critical for regular GF appearances/wins FTB!

Holding steady post the bye apart from a quiet one last week PF. I reckon he might have a credit or two up his sleeve. He has also improved (in some cases only marginally though and possibly off a low base) in a number of areas generally post the bye, which is more than can be said for many of his team mates. The other huge worry for mine is Lingers. And i'm not saying he'll be replaced but his contested possession count is up nearly 50% and his uncontested down 25% (18 per match to 13) post the bye (or is that post concussion?). He's also taken Zero marks inside 50 since the bye, whereas he was taking nearly 1 per match (0.8) prior. Scored no goals since the bye vs about 1 per game prior. His tackle count is also down 73% (from 2.3 to 0.6) as well as 1%ers down 40%, meaning a whole lot less pressure on opponents. He was a major key to our fortunes pre the bye/concussion but a shell of his former self since then.

Hunt seems to be tracking quite well post the bye. But then again the FD might not be happy with some of Hunt's turnovers of late or his tackle count which has dropped away quiet substantially. Rivers is a bit of a mixed bag but i feel he is still holding his form reasonably well and also an unlikely out for Bowey. But of course who knows, from the outer anything's possible and could be proven wrong. #24 T Rivers Rnds 1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye CP 4.77 4.80 0.6 UP 10.08 9.00 -10.7 ED 12.08 11.20 -7.3 DE% 75.65 80.34 4.7 CM 0.46 0.60 30.0 Mi50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1% 1.92 2.60 35.2 CL 0.62 0.40 -35.0 R50 3.08 2.80 -9.0 i50 1.31 1.20 -8.2 T 1.46 1.80 23.2 Si 2.38 2.00 -16.1 MG 281.38 262.00 -6.9 TO 3.46 2.00 -42.2 ITC 4.77 5.60 17.4 T5 0.00 0.00 0.0 TOG% 70.54 68.60 -1.9 G 0.08 0.00 -100 #29 J Hunt Rnds 1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye CP 3.92 5.40 37.6 UP 9.23 10.80 17.0 ED 9.85 11.20 13.8 DE% 76.20 70.54 -5.7 CM 0.15 0.20 30.0 Mi50 0.08 0.00 -100.0 1% 1.00 1.60 60.0 CL 0.69 0.60 -13.3 R50 2.23 2.60 16.6 i50 2.77 3.40 22.8 T 3.08 1.80 -41.5 Si 2.69 3.40 26.3 MG 278.31 380.20 36.6 TO 2.54 4.60 81.2 ITC 4.15 5.80 39.6 T5 0.08 0.00 -100.0 TOG% 79.46 75.00 -4.5 G 0.08 0.20 160.0 On the other hand both Salem and Hibb are a fair way of their pre bye form. Especially Hibb IMV given his average time on the ground is up 8% post the break, which is substantial, but his numbers are mostly way off other than tackles! Turnovers up 20% also. Is Hibb a likely surprise 'Out' for Bowey!?? #3 C Salem Rnds 1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye CP 6.17 4.80 -22.2 UP 16.83 19.40 15.2 ED 19.33 21.20 9.7 DE% 75.60 82.40 6.8 CM 0.25 0.00 -100.0 Mi50 0.00 0.20 - 1% 1.50 0.80 -46.7 CL 0.92 0.80 -12.7 R50 5.50 6.00 9.1 i50 2.33 1.20 -48.6 T 2.25 2.00 -11.1 Si 4.08 3.80 -6.9 MG 445.58 362.00 -18.8 TO 4.42 4.20 -4.9 ITC 6.42 6.00 -6.5 T5 0.17 0.00 -100.0 TOG% 86.92 85.80 -1.1 G 0.08 0.20 140.0 #14 M Hibberd Rnds 1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye CP 4.89 4.80 -1.8 UP 10.00 9.20 -8.0 ED 11.44 10.00 -12.6 DE% 78.84 79.52 0.7 CM 0.22 0.00 -100.0 Mi50 0.00 0.00 0.0 1% 2.44 1.80 -26.4 CL 0.56 0.40 -28.0 R50 3.33 3.00 -10.0 i50 1.00 0.60 -40.0 T 1.78 2.40 35.0 Si 2.00 1.20 -40.0 MG 256.78 204.20 -20.5 TO 2.33 2.80 20.0 ITC 5.11 4.00 -21.7 T5 0.00 0.00 0.0 TOG% 79.67 87.80 8.1 G 0.00 0.00 0.0

...That’s the spirit PF, you’re a real man, not some desk-sucking, pen pushing blotter jotter like Darling here!...

Too funny 56. I wish it weren't so. Hopefully our boys are watching some of the Olympians and getting a bit of inspiration to go higher, faster, stronger!

Thank Lucifer the ressies are back is all i can say! Just need 6 to 8 players to play a blinder so they can replace some severely out of form players up top!

Certainly not since the bye OD. Statistically Max has crashed since then and he isn't alone either. Plenty of friends, especially his partner in crime Dogga! Both have dropped away severely in the last five rounds since the break. Something NQR at camp Demonland since then? Either that or the FD (Burgess?) has concocted a cunning plan to conserve massive energy in the lead up to the finals post the bye or maybe lull our opponents into a false sense of security! Here's a summary of Max & Dogga's output (averages) in their matches before and after the bye. I normally don't place too much weight on stats as they're just a rough indicator of what's gone on in some limited aspects of a player's game and more often than not don't reflect reality. However some of the results in these tables are pretty alarming, especially given we are only five to six weeks away from finals. One aspect that stands out for me here (apart from the complete falling away in most areas!) is that Max's Rebound 50s (obviously due to him dropping back into our defensive half) vs Inside 50s (pushing forward) appear to have had a complete swap over after the bye. Why i wonder? Substantial change to his role? He is also racking up almost half of his usual (prior to the bye) effective disposals and contested marks . If we were talking 10%, maybe even 25% i wouldn't be as worried but above 25% is a substantial deviation (provided the base comparative number isn't miniscule to start with). Also zero goals scored after the bye even though he would appear to be playing more time forward of center. Dogga also looks to have hit the wall. #11 M Gawn Rnds 1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye CP 10.62 9.20 -13.3 UP 7.85 8.00 2.0 ED 13.23 7.80 -41.0 DE% 69.62 46.10 -23.5 CM 2.92 1.60 -45.3 Mi50 0.85 0.60 -29.1 1% 4.69 4.00 -14.8 CL 3.62 4.40 21.7 R50 2.23 1.40 -37.2 i50 2.69 3.40 26.3 T 2.54 2.60 2.4 Si 5.31 4.60 -13.3 MG 277.08 340.60 22.9 TO 3.92 2.60 -33.7 ITC 4.00 3.20 -20.0 T5 0.15 0.20 30.0 TOG% 91.46 89.20 -2.3 G 0.62 0.00 -100.0 #6 L Jackson Rnds 1 - 13 Rnds 15 - 19 % Change Post Bye CP 7.00 4.60 -34.3 UP 7.08 5.00 -29.4 ED 10.83 6.60 -39.1 DE% 75.63 70.78 -4.8 CM 1.00 0.60 -40.0 Mi50 0.58 0.80 37.1 1% 1.17 2.00 71.4 CL 1.75 0.40 -77.1 R50 0.42 0.40 -4.0 i50 1.83 0.40 -78.2 T 2.17 1.20 -44.6 Si 4.50 3.00 -33.3 MG 119.92 76.40 -36.3 TO 2.33 1.40 -40.0 ITC 1.50 1.80 20.0 T5 0.92 0.00 -100.0 TOG% 77.33 73.00 -4.3 G 0.58 0.40 -31.4 CP = Contested Possessions UP = Uncontested Possessions ED = Effective Disposals DE% = Disposal Efficiency % CM = Contested Mark Mi50 = Marks inside 50 1% = One Percenter CL = Clearances R50 = Rebound 50 i50 = Inside 50s T = Tackles Si = Score Involvements MG = Meters Gained TO = Turnovers ITC = Intercepts T5 = Tackles inside 50 TOG% = Time on Ground % G = Goals Stats courtesy of footywire.com