PaulRB

Bartram to miss rest of season Bummer

Karma's gonna get you, Tom

The challenge with predicting this year is that the draw and the arrival of a new coach, plan and FD meant that the first half of the year was always going to be challenging (more so in retrospect). Yet the win over Dons and solid effort for 3 quarters vs Pies shows we have improved since the first game (shudder) this year. I'd rated us 10th at the start of the year, reckon we've done a "step back to take two forward" thus far this year, but the changes should start bearing fruit in the second half of the season. I hope they do, and am predicting they will. Hence, the 9 win prediction.

Surely we can just convert the two compo picks we got for losing a No. 1 draft pick back into this years No. 1 draft pick. GC or GWS would jump at pick 4 and pick 12 in exchange for pick 1. Wouldn't they?

Liar liar pants on fire.

No Heart No Soul So glad Tom has gone.

Did you just suggest we throw bags of s..t at the greedy lying weasel? Awesome.

Rather we have a swing at Boak, a more proven commodity.

the Poll title may have indicated some aspect of the zero wins option. That said, as we know, there is no tanking in the AFL. But, someone has to finish last.

Poor Tatu, held in such low esteem. As you pointed out in your "The second half draw" thread, your prediction is not relevant here (as my want 11 wins is not relevant there), what you want to happen, is. And the system tempts us with high draft picks while admonishing us for considering them.

Valid point. Changed tips.

The base assumption in most of the draft or trade threads on the site is the assumption that we will remain 16th. I can point at the threads with this assumption if you like. I believe we could do better than this, but am not sure we'd (fans and club) want to, given the reward for staying 16th. I don't know what you mean with your Tatu reference. Are you talking about Fantasy Island? "The Plane! The Plane". If Mark is reading, he could do well to write about the current system causing ambivalence in supporters about winning and the effect of this cognitive dissonance on our enjoyment of the footy... And the AFL in it's unequalled wisdom reacted to the taint of tanking by adding compo picks tied to ladder position. It's not only MFC fans suffering from this push-me pull-you rubbish, nor only us fighting the temptation to better our position. GWS and GC are engaged in a race of their own... previously known as the wooden spoon (although golden spoon would be more apt).

I love the way you state you position and view as the ONLY position and view... I.e a poll you don't agree with the findings of, is "poorly made". I.e. a result (finishing last max draft benefit) "is not credible" when it is in fact the ONLY result that the team could guarantee (I am not saying they should). Your "realistic" outcome of 5-6 win in the second half of the season required a 500% increase in wins over first half of season. Yet a 200% increase on this (to reach 11 wins) is so ridiculous to be absurd. I'm reacting to an increased focus on maximising our position in the draft which inevitably involves a minimising of our performance on the ground. The past coaches tenure was stained with this shite, and I hope our current one's won't be. What's "not hard"?

Just a slight correction: the OPer (me) started this thread because I felt that the potential riches on offer in the draft was seducing and compromising our desire to win now. See "Win them all" thread for the background discussion. RPFC can't see it, therefore it does not exist. At the moment about 40% of fans want us to lose games to improve our draft position. I suspect this is a reflection of their worries about the quality of our list and it's potential to take us to the holy grail... Fair enough too.

I'd suggest the last 4 years has hurt our numbers...

Interesting that your middle road, reality bus position is the least popular.

curious to see (via the poll) what everyone else thinks. I'm keen on all 11 wins (unlikely I know).

Putting the reality bus aside for a minute, what do we want from the rest of 2012?

Yes we may. I am certain we could win 11 from here, and I am certain that we wouldn't have pick 3 if we did. My point is, that for many Melb fans your scenario (which I agree to be far more likely than mine) is preferable to winning 11 more this year. We are allowing ourselves to be compromised and seduced.

I'd never presume to assume what boat you'd be in. All I know about you is that you can chew and walk at the same time (a rare skill). The incentives for us to be seduced into improving our draft position this year are greater than any recent year, including those when we "appeared" to be tanking. Compo picks and Viney make the payoff huge. But no so clear is the impact not being fully committed to victory week in, week out, has on our young developing culture. We can't have our cake an eat it too.

am·biv·a·lence ( m-bv-lns) n. 1. The coexistence of opposing attitudes or feelings, such as love and hate, toward a person, object, or idea. 2. Uncertainty or indecisiveness as to which course to follow. On one hand I want Melbourne to win all the games on the run home, on the other hand, I want to secure as high as possible draft picks as possible (which involves losing games). This is not a walk and chew scenario, but dealing with a culture that can be less than committed to winning games of footy. The fascination with draft success and the annual ambivalence about winning as the season hits the second half is a reflection of this...

I'm not particularly optimistic that we'll win all games. I'm just over getting excited about once again "winning" the booby prize of high draft picks (we've been here for 4 years now). I'd rather speculate on the next game hoping we win for the next 12 weeks rather than the worry over the endless scenarios, rumours, speculations etc... about who next will save the MFC. And I am hoping the players and coaches are similarly focused. In the week coming into the draft I'll be interested, right now it just smells like defeat and discouragement driving us out of the present into a fantasy future where it all falls into place... The bones of our future are playing for us now.

Of the 25 threads on the Melb forum now 8 are on the draft, and picks. Most with the assumption that we will finish 16th... White flag is up in supporter land. Hopefully our team is more present and focused on the job at hand, winning footy games.

Clarification: I am not saying we it is likely we will win all the next 11 games. I don't want to talk about the draft, about picks, and kids who may or may not be champions for the next 16 weeks. I want us to win. If we win every game from here life gets better. If we win every game we finish 8 - 10th on the ladder and I have 12 weeks of enjoying my team play. Tired of trying to make a silk purse out of the sows ear that is finishing low on the ladder. Tired of Forkers like Sheeds rubbing our noses in it. It's June and we've run up the white flag and started counting our picks...

Must win.