binman

Nor the crows- who are even less likely to make finals

Of course the odds are against. I wasn't arguing otherwise. I was responding to the comment that 2025 starts now. Zero chance that we'll be putting the cue in the rack and not be trying our guts out to make finals until it's mathematically impossible.

My take is we went into the game with focus on contest, pressure and territory. And it worked a treat in the first quarter. The game got away from us when the giants got the ball to the outside - which every team is trying to do to us to exploit our lack of run and sub optimal conditioning. But the giants started paddling a bit too in the last quarter and couldn't spread as well. And the game came back to being more on our terms - territory and pressure.

Bollocks. We are 2 points out of the 8.

I thought so too, and to an extent he us a victom of the high bar he had set himself, but he has def lost a bit of his confidence. Made some average decisions last night and his kicking, which is one wood when on, was off and has been for a while. All that said I think it is often under rated how difficult it is coming back from serious contact injuries. Bowey was terrific in the preseason games and prior to injuring his shoulder in that sickening collision when he put his body on the line. Like langers after coming back from his broken ribs, bowey hasn't looked the same player since coming back from his shoulder.

I really don't think they did. Their pressure was 200 in that last quarter and they scrapped right to the wire.

Spot on. And id add that Max was clearly injured (which I assume is why disco was sub) and we didn't have Salem and the kolt, who has provided some real energy in the last few weeks. And I'm not sure about others, but I don't think I'm alone in saying after their fourth quick goal at the start of the fourth I was worried we were going to get blown out. Others at the ground must have thought similarly as plenty left. So I was both surprised and proud how we fought back, particularly given how young we were.

Wasn't there some rumour that may and Lever were both carrying something and in doubt to play?

And tmac has never been great one on one. He's better out in space. To be fair t8 tmsc those inside 50s were super hard to defend, and that's on Max and the mids. And jessie is a gun., who is in rare form at the moment. Nailed his chances too. One of my favourite dees - id have him back in a heart beat. Imagine Hogan and JVR roaming around inside our front half

See ya.

No, he was a shadow of himself. Couldn't get off the ground, struggled to cover the ground and got our muscled. But tried his guts out Huge effort to play.

It was woeful. Clarry was behind Greene on the defensive side (inexplicably) and maxy hit into open space on the offensive side allowing Greene to run onto the ball unimpeded.

I have not been as furious with the umpiring in I honestly don't know how long. I was apoplectic Simply appalling. I'm still seething. The blatant inconsistency is just mind numbing.

Blimey. Whatever anyone might think about how we're travelling, it can't be argued we have had some appallingly bad luck this season.

Love it. Who's to say you won't be the difference between a win and a loss? Looking at the radar I'm predicting no rain in the first half. And some passing showers and possile hail in the second half.

I assume this is supposed to be a joke? Either way, it's a good question and one I wished was asked more, particularly by the media. I actually think there is a high likelihood loading has been a factor in the blues' performances in the last 6 weeks. Ditto for the swans who like the blues have also lost three of their last five. No coincidence they are one and two on the ladder and so can afford to train hard now as they have points in the bank.

Not sure, but I'd be guessing it's not statistically significant. We for instance have gone 50 50 this year. We beat the crows and lost by a point to the blues. But there are so many variables at play that make a statistical analysis of the win loss ratio problematic. For example the relative strength of the two teams. The swans off a five day break against the Eagles are still likely to win. Another variable is how many days break the opposition has. And yet another variable is how teams decide to prepare for the 5 day break, for example targeting specific games. For example we had a very clear plan for the port crows double that prioritised winning both games, potentially risking not maximising our chances of beating the lions the following week. I reckon we had a similar plan for the cats blues double. Which touches on another impact to consider - the impact of the five day break on the following game. After beating the crows off a five day break were flat as a tack against the lions at the G. After beating the cats in a torrid game, we came out flat 5 days later against the blues but came home like a train only to fall short by a point. We were again flat as a tack in our next game after a five day break - our loss to the Eagles. A better statistical analysis of the impact of the five day break would be whether a team under performed as measured by the betting line, a pretty reliable indicator. For example, the blues line last night was -9.5 points. Port won by 14, so a plus 23.5 points swing against the line. I am pretty confident based on my own punting that the data would show teams coming off a five day break statistically do poorly in terms of making their line (note: teams can win and still under perform against expectations).

No, but that's because as I said early in the season the blues' defence was suspect (an opinion that by the by I copped some heat for) and teams with suspect defences don't win flags And the blues still haven't sorted their defensive issues.

And we'd have plenty of posters saying that despite sitting 2nd on the ladder we are shot, having lost 3 of our last 5 (which is Carlton's record in their last 5 games - with their two wins being against the 18th placed tigers and a lucky 19 point win over the 17th placed roos). The blues actually provide a good objectivity test case. Do posters think, with their record, that the blues are toast now?

On this, 5 day breaks are simply ridiculous (albeit helpful to my punting bank because their mpact is so predictable). Yet another example of the AFL putting profit ahead of running an elite competition.

The blues were clearly paddling from half way through the third. One goal in the second half, none in rhe last.

So you're actually helping the players with your critisism?

Punters have backed dees into favouritism:

Four, five if you count Jefferson: roo, kolt, disco, jeffo and Windsor. This is exactly why I like to lean into known facts rather than the where there's smoke palaver. Known fact #1 Mutiple players have recently recommitted to the MFC. Of the top of my head, that list includes: jeffo, roo chin, Petty, Windsor, the kolt, AMW (I think) and disco - and I'm probably missing some. Apply Occam's razor to the question of why so many players, particularly young guns who would def get picked up by other clubs, have decided their medium term future lies with dees. What is the answer?