binman

It's subjective isn't it. Everybody seems to love the giants. Me too. Consensus seems to be they have a good list. This is their top 12 rated players in the last 20 matches:

Our way. We bet into a shared bank.

This was my mates reply: I like them, but not quite as confident, $ Crows +5.5.

Go crowbots. At the risk of going the early crow, this was the message I sent my mate I punt with beforethe game: 'I am really bullish about the crows to make their line. In fact, I think they'll win. Showdowns are like finals. Which always evens things up and means a hard contested game. Which I think suits the crows. But the main reason is port's injuries. Key players out in alir and Powell Pepper. And rozee is surely ginger.'

I largely disagree, but really like this post and think you make a strong case. Im not suggesting you are soing so tu, but i think there is a tendency for fans to over rate other teams lists. All lists drop away after the top 10-12, which is one reason why I a worried about the impact of the tassie team. The talent pool is too thin already, particularly given AFL footballers noe need to be bloody good at footy AND elite athletes. I take your point about forwards lined but few teams have actually scored that much more than us under Goody. And there's also an argument that the need for mutiple gun forwards is overated. The cats are a bit of an outlier in that regard arguably going all the way back to the dogs in 2016.

The first time I've got selection right since about mid last year!

@Blistering can't quite tell if this is a wind up. But I'll assume not and play with a straight bat. The high half forward (HHF) role has become one of the most important in AFL football. Daniel Hoyne from champion data said many times last season that the key reason for the blues' turnaround was sorting the HFF role. Cotteral for example has become super important to them. That's because the HFF role is key to the transition game and turning turnovers into scores and defending turnovers. To excel in the HHF role a player needs to be an elite athlete with a huge tank who can cover ground quickly. Similar to the role langers plays as a winger, it Involves gut running from box to box, in soccer parlance. In footy it's forward pocket to back pocket all game providing defensive cover in defence as part of an all team zone defensive system. The defensive cover includes direct defensive actions in rhe opponents forward half (ie helping our defence) like spoiling, smothers and tackles. And indirect defensive actions like blocking switch options or sprinting to a mark to stop a player immediately playing on. The HFF does those same defensive actions when the ball is in our forward half - with the indirect actions being critical in terms of making it harder to transition the ball from their back half. When we transition the ball from our back half the HFF gut runs to get ahead of the ball to either spread the opposition (ie an opponent has to run and cover him) or be an option to kick to. The latter includes being a target inside 50. And of course in addition to all of that, snag the occasional crumbing or stoppage goal. Some HHFs might be more forward orientated and play a bit closer to goal. Chandler is a good example. Others might have assists as a kpi and be one of the players teams want kicking inside 50 (though all will be expected to hit up leading targets). Miers is a good example. The best HFF in the AFL? Nibbla hands down. Don't believe me? Have a listen to Andy's brilliant interview with Kade Chandler. From 13.17 in the player at the top of this page Kade discusses the small forward role (but is referring to the HHF role). He defines it much more succinctly than I just have and pumps up nibbla as the HHF exemplar.

I'm going to assume if he picks the dees he is certain to be a gun who will play 200 plus games fir the MFC. And if he picks the suns he is over rated, and whilst a good average player who carves out a decent AFL career we use the draft pick to instead unearth another Taylor diamond in the rough who becomes an all time great of the club. It's a win win.

If he had the right attitude at Gold Coast? May was famously competitive and an obvious leader. Which is why Gold Coast made him co captain at 25 , and why he was an absolute gun player in.huge demand before coming to the dees. Rance and Scarlett are unarguably both legends. 5 and 6 x AA respectively. Premiership player x 1 and x 3 respectively. But May is 100% on track to be considered in the same league as both. If he plays two more seasons after this year he'll get close to 300 games. He's a two time AA, and a real chance of adding a third this year. And of course he is also a premiership player, who famously played with a hammy tear that normally would be a minimum 3 week injury.

Hunter in was my thought too, for the same reason ie strong, seasoned player. I was thinking Windsor might he sub. But I think you make an excellent point about our need for speed - generally, but particularly against the cats who are both quick and also play a back half, transition game. And Windsor out, Hunter in is a bad combo in terms of leg speed. So, I'm changing my prediction to no change.

For just one the one flag? Can you clarify what you mean. I might be well be misinterpreting you, but you seem to be implying port underachieved. And i get the sense that you are also implying that having an incredible defence is not that significant in terms of our Premiership chances. Again, i may well have the wrong end of the stick, but if not yoy might want to come up work a better example- Lyon's first stint at the saints perhaps. Because in the three seasons you note Port WON one flag. In 170 seasons the dees have won 13 flags. That averages out to aprox a flag every 13 years. Call me crazy, but I suspect most teams would be pretty happy with a flag every three years.

They are simply amazing stats. Add the fact that since the start of the 2021 season we have only given up 100 points three times (next best 9) and you get a great sense of how remarkably effective our defence is. And how central defence is to goody's coaching philosophy. I wonder if there has EVER been a more effective defence over any four season block? It's worth noting too that Daniel hoyne, in discussing our new method at the start of the season warned dees fans we are likely going to give up more goals this season ('you've got to give up something to get something' ie a more expansive, turnover based game will open us for goals the other way). Hoyne might still be proved correct, but not on the evidence of the 7 games so far.

Agree. Which is why mcvee is such an important player (who i somehow forgot to highlight) for us. And why Coleman is such a massive out for the lions. In fact given their challenges moving the ball from their back half, an argument could be made Coleman's injury is the most impactful LTI of any club.

No I reckon that's about right (though statistically tmac actually has a case). Buts for both us and the pies that's 4-5 elite kicks is not 2-3.

Mmm, maybe. With only 2-3 elite kicks I think teams then can't carry too many butchers (every team had some) for the turnover game to work. And in that scenario teams can focus on blanketing the 2-3 elite kicks Look at the hawks. They have 2-3 elite kicks but still contually turn the ball over on transition. By the by i reckon if tracc was a better kick, he'd be the best plsyer in the AFL by some margin.

I think, for a number of reasons, that is a fantastic question. One reason is it points to a key point - whatever game plan a team uses they need the right mix of players to execute it. (It also touches on a fascinating question - to what extent should clubs build a list around a game plan or a game plan around a list?) My short answer is, yes our list suits the new game style - this season. I have been banging on for years how poor we are as a kicking team. The current method requires, I think, at least 5 elite kicks, particularly from the back half, wingers and the last kick inside 50. Last season we did not have the players to reliably hit the high risk kicks the turnover, transition game demand - particularly with salo out of sorts. It is no coincidence we have been targeting players in the last 3-4 drafts with elite kicking skills. Going back to the 2020 draft we picked up Bowser and Laurie. Sestan is an excellent kick as is AMW. Even JVR is a fantastic field kick. And they drafted mcvee aheaf of the 2022 season and is arguably now our best kick. We traded in hunter in large part because of his kicking skills. And last year we added Windsor, who is both an excellent kick and fast (another important attribute for the transition game) and the kolt - another elite kick. We traded in billings and McAdam- two more excellent kicks. And we moved tmac back. Despite the nightmares he gave us when last a full time defender he has always been an excellent field kick. He just took too many silly high risk kicks on - something that he had noticeabley reined in. I still worry about our overall kicking skills but as the pies ans cats have shown yoy don't need all players to be elite kicks, you just need 4 or 5 in the right spots. Which raises another interesting question. With Sidebottom out of form, pendles slowing down and teams putting heaps of time into daicos, do the pies now have the right list for a method they perfected?

My tip. We will be absolutely, 1000% cherry ripe against the cats. And I think they will have done a significant amount of planning to minimise the impact of the 5 day break into the blues game (and have great 'learnings' from the 5 day break into the crows game). They may also revert back to a more forward half, trench warfare game against the blues as it a less aerobically taxing method. I suspect both are target games. And I'm quietly confident we will win both.

An interesting element of the changed method is a transition game is less taxing physically because there is less contests. I think that is a key reason why we have adapted our game as as clarry noted post game we have been banged up coming into the finals in the last 2 seasons. But it is a method that MORE taxing aerobicly because it involves more end to end running. And as Steve may notes in this clip, a high turnover game means constantly working hard to get back defensively: Maysie Defence.mp3 So, for the method to work teams need to be super fit aerobically across the board or it just won't work (which I think is why teams like the roos and hawks are struggling to implement it). I think @Binmans PA makes an interesting point that it could be argued Scott was a key influence in the development of the transition game, using a slingshot style since at least 2019. My sense is mcrae adapted that method and created a hybrid method that included some of the key elements of goody's method - fierce contest, territory first (ie not wait for the perfect hit up like cats used to), a defence that gets back hard and trap it inside 50. Mcraes 2022 and (most of) 2023's method feels more helter skelter than the cats method (though the cats also got noticeably more physical and hard at it in their premiership year). But this year, and for the last third of last season, the pies are basically playing our 2021-23 method. I suspect the reason why is they aren't aerobically fit enough to employ the method they perfected. Yet. I suspect there is some truth to the talk that the pies have structured their high performance program to ease into the season. Use the two byes as opportunities to build their collective tank in season. Voss said something similar about how they planned to use the early season bye, and interestingly they are alsi playing a forward half game. If im right the pies may well start getting back to their transition, turnover game. And as much as I hate to say it, could well come in a rush towards the end of the season. And the blues might go to another level.

We are number one in the AFL for rebound 50s. Tigers, who are playing an almost identical game to us, are number two. Cats are number three.

What he said.

I would have loved to have to gone to school with Wattsy! We would have been mates i'm sure. Good bloke. Would have enjoyed partying with him. Sadly he 20 plus years younger than me!

Cold. Clue:

I'll have a go at the other qs tomorrow EO.

My take: General comment Under Goody, since the start of 2021 our method has been forward half (ie get it inside 50 as quickly and directly as possible and keep it there - hence the hated long bomb), territory first, brutal football with insane pressure and huge tackle numbers. Basically Hardwick's template with an improved defensive system and some other tweaks (eg one less at the stoppage). As @rpfc has noted, this year goody is trying to implement a game plan and system that has a focus on turnover and fast effective transition from the back half, ideally into an open forward line to help with 'efficiency'. Territory is still important of course. Switching just allows oppo defences to get set up. So if we can't go fast, we try and at least hit up leads that move us towards our goal. And we seem to be setting up really deep defensively - deeper than other team using a similar method ATM (Cats, Giants, Tigers and Swans - ironically one of the teams who really developed the method, the Pies, are playing our 2021-23 method, as is the blues). The point Turner kicked in the first q after a beautifully weighted kick from Fritter, who had pushed up to the wing (leaving our inside 50 all but empty) and marked after we turned the ball over was the perfect example of the method in action. Fritters and Turners first goals were other good examples. Key categories/indicators no longer as key/critical: Time in Forward Half Metres Gained Inside 50s The 2024 Red and Blue print: First and foremost, as has always been the case, and will always be a fundamental under goody: Defence Contest New in 2024 to reflect the changed method: Transition, back half football - scores from defensive half being the key indicator Scores from turnover (was important last year, but critical this year) Clearances (on watch in terms of relevance/importance)*: *Last season clearances were not key stats, or at least not in the way they once were. And because we have always given up a player at stoppages, even for us, a straight-line team, they were of limited value as key indicators. So i'm not sure how relevant clearances are. We are down on total clearances this season, but are number two for most scores (blues #1) from stoppages and number one for least oppo score when they win stoppages. So i'm starting to think it is pretty important, though again not as important as scores from turnover (which is aprox 60-70% of scoring now - or was last year). Here are some of the KPIs i think are relevant for our 2024 method (the list is obviously not exhaustive and the club would have a huge number of team and individual data points they measure to assess if we are the right track): Key Performance Indicators Defence Opposition score Intercepts Intercept marks Scores from turnover Marks inside 50 Contest Contested possessions Pressure Post clearance possessions Tackles Tackles inside 50 Ground Ball Gets Contested marks Clearances:* Centre Stoppage Scores from stoppages Hit outs Hitouts To Advantage Transition from back half Points from defensive half Inside 50 to score ratio Rebound 50s Score sources (from most to least relevant): Turnover Stoppage* Centre bounces* Kick in* Marks: Uncontested marks inside 50 Contested marks Marks inside forward 50 Marks inside forward 50 per inside 50 Intercept marks Marks on lead High performance program, fitness, and fatigue TBD

I went to the same school as a well known dees player. Year above me. Pillock who was the very definition of a self absorbed alfa jock who when he became a dees player contradicted de la soul.