binman

6 minutes ago, Brownie said:

They all look very sweaty and fatigued right now. As does the coach

Are you watching the sun cats game?

Won't be many pumping up the cats strategy of managing players after the last three games.

The cats have currently lost a tick under 13%.

31 minutes ago, binman said:

Live ladder has cats second on 28 points, with their percentage dropping to 112.5.

We are 24 points on 121.1%.

Keep going suns.

This has now actually become a pretty big game for us. 

Cats could end up losing 10% plus. Say we add 3 or 4%.

We finish tge round equal points with the cats, and 13% plus clear.

And the blues play the swans at the scg.

The blues are also on 24 points but are only on 109%

If the blues lose, we could be a game and 15% plus clear of them.

That's a big gap for the blues to fall behind us 

Dogs beating the giants would be the cherry on top.

22 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Cats to fall to 6th or 7th at the end of the round barring a few upsets. 

Have also dropped 10%

Live ladder has cats second on 28 points, with their percentage dropping to 112.5.

We are 24 points on 121.1%.

Keep going suns.

We broke the Cats.

25 minutes ago, Mel Bourne said:

Cats a bit off tonight, eh Scotty?

C'mon be fair. Scotty's right, they're a bit off.

Maybe they are sick of losing.

On 15/05/2024 at 02:03, KC from Casey said:

Two teams performing well below last year’s levels meet at Casey. The Demons will be depleted but could sure use a full squad to play out a game.

Casey Demons vs Brisbane Lions at Casey Fields, Saturday 18 May, 2024 at 11:05am

11.05 am?

25 minutes ago, layzie said:

Give it to Woey

I reckon billings and woey will split it, with woey taking tge defensive end.

1 hour ago, binman said:

Interesting prediction on the winning margin being 9 points.

The betting line, an excellent predictive indicator, gives us a 29 point handicap (ie -29 for us and +29 for the Eagles).

If you agree with William's prediction, and like a bet, then the Eagles at the line is crazy good value.

Personally I think the line is about right.

By the by, the punting money has us winning by 29 - a five goal win.

William makes a reasonable for  under a two goal win.

Worth keeping in mind if say we win win by 5 goals in so far as tempering the inevitable cries of 'a good team would beat this mob by 10 goals, wasted opportunity to boost percentage'.

6 hours ago, layzie said:

I was going to ask this a few weeks ago but could never get around to it, even had visuals that I prepared earlier.

I definitely agree on the ‘box to box’ wingman concept with Langdon but I’d love to get unnecessarily complex for a moment Binman and ask you how you think they would be instructing him to perform this defensive role in relation to the all-team zone. 

Could it be like option A where Langdon has a specific section of grass that he covers but it also extends into the back 50 (Either all game or only in specific situations) or more likely option B where he isn’t designated a zone but he tracks back often to help his teammates out with the spoils, tackles and just being a back stop to avoid the opposition kicking to open space etc?

OPTION A                                                                                                                    

 

OPTION B

 

With such an intricate defensive zonal system I’m really intrigued as to how these roles are drilled into the players. 
 

I'm guessing layzie, but for the wingers and hhfs I think you are right that it is more likely option b.

Their 'zone' is a lane extending end to end.

But option a would reflect the role of other positions, though I doubt it's patch's of grass so to speak but rather 'shape' and where they need to be/should in that shape or grid.

Watching from behind and above  the goals you can really see that shape, and see players behind the ball pointing to teamates to cover a particular area (patch of grass if you will).

The most obvious example is a defender playing the goal keeper role. That might be one the defefenders main job (usuallya big), but all defenders would have responsibility to make sure someone gets back, for example if the main player can't.

Interesting prediction on the winning margin being 9 points.

The betting line, an excellent predictive indicator, gives us a 29 point handicap (ie -29 for us and +29 for the Eagles).

If you agree with William's prediction, and like a bet, then the Eagles at the line is crazy good value.

Personally I think the line is about right.

Quote not edit.

1 hour ago, Fat Tony said:

I am not convinced that Salem will definitely come straight back into the AFL side post injury this time. He may come back straight in, but I think they will have a debate at selection about it, which means he is not a lock.

The only locks in the 23 would be May, Lever, McVee, Rivers, Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, ANB, Pickett and Fritsch.

For Salem to come into the backline, Bowey or Howes would need be dropped, or Rivers would need to be redeployed into the midfield.

Salem is behind Oliver, Viney and Petracca in the midfield pecking order (and probably behind Sparrow).

I remember you had Spargo as a lock in Goodwin's best side mid last year and he was dropped shortly after and then left out for Laurie in a final.

Indeed I did, and I was proved incorrect.

I may well be proven wrong about salo too. 

We'll see.

4 hours ago, Abyssal said:

I’m curious, and I’m also not being facetious, do you believe that every comment which expresses the author’s opinion should be prefaced by “in my opinion” ?

No, not every comment of course. 

In most circumstances it's clear from the context it is a posters opinion or an assertion of fact.

Personally, I often preface comments with 'in my opinion' it used to do the infamous Lord Nev's head in.

But I do so to minimise confusion. 

For example, in my opinion salo is 100% in Goody's best 22 and 100% is a lock when he is fit.

Which is a completely different conversation to whether I personally think salo is best 22.

Which, by the by, in my opinion he is.

2 hours ago, Fat Tony said:

Salem's Player Ratings according to Wheelo Ratings

2021 - 10th for MFC (9.68 points)

2022 - 29th for MFC (5.15 points)

2023 - 21st for MFC (7.88 points)

2024 - 18th for MFC (7.72 points)

He is definitely not a lock in our best side.

Again, and i promise im not being facetious, do you mean if you were a selector or that you think goody thinks salo is not a lock in our best side?

I ask, because they are two different things.

52 minutes ago, Kent said:

He is way past his best 

No way is he auto selection in my view

To clarify, salo is not in your opinion best 22 and he would not be an auto selection if you were selecting the side.

Or you don't think he is an auto selection in the real world, ie you don't think goody has salo in his best 22 and even when fit and available is no sure thing to come into the team?

Thank god it's not game day again.

Though it's gone from the first game of the round to the last game of the round!

My kingdom for some non outlier games.

20 hours ago, BigFez said:

I think this is genuinely the worst umpiring decision I've ever seen in my life.  He was right there too.

To be honest it's not even in my top 100.

It wasn't even the worst in the march - the free against Max for hitting it out on the full when it pittone who did so and the insufficient intent free against Bowser were worse.

Dont get me wrong, it was right below me, so I had a perfect view and it was an absolute howler.

Brilliant tackle, that should have been awarded.

But, deliberately or accidentally, Kemp tilted his head toward the ground and under pressure, and with the noise about concussion (noise the AFL can seemingly ignore completely when it suits them) i can understand why the umpire made a mistake.

That's to say, wrong decision, but there were mitigating circumstances.

What makes that free worse in my book is not paying obvious frees, for example clear htb against Walsh when he fended off (cost us a shot at goal) and tracc get wrestled and held at one of the final stoppages 20 metres from our goal.

The latter cost us the game as there would have been no time for the blues to score again.

In my opinion, not nearly enough attention is paid to the frees THAT ARE NOT PAID, particularly those near the end of close games.

The 'they've put the whistle away' phenomena is one of the most ridiculous parts of AFL footy.

The umpires job is to pay frees that are there. Even if it doing so, arguably particularly if doing so, impacts the result.

Refusing to make a decision is a de facto decision.

46 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Fun fact, all 3 of our losses have been on a Thursday night. Makes for a tedious weekend.

Bob Geldof got his days mixed up.

11 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Jon Ralph’s article says clubs can have 3 per season, which I thought only came into effect from next year.

Ridiculous.

And short sighted. Just makes for rubbish games of football.

Does anyone know if they have 5 day breaks in the NFL and NRL?

1 minute ago, Gawndy the Great said:

100%. My statements are purely on the result. There is a process our club must follow. It is deeply rooted in a culture which prides itself of mutual respect and method. These are intangible. If we follow our process and apply our method, then what i said above, applies. 6+ minimum. Whether that result is achieved by limiting them to < 40 points or us kicking higher than our average of 80-90, im not too fussed (although i'd like it to both). 

Better the former if the goal is four points and as much a percentage boost as possible.

2 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Yeo is not playing. he is 30 with recurring groin issues. They will not risk a 2-3 weeker for a potential season/career ending. They are not challenging for the flag but more blooding the new players. 

I will be shocked if he plays before the mid round bye. 

 

WC will finish bottom 4. Bottom 4 teams should be beat by flag contenders comfortably. A comfortable win (in my definition) is 6 goals minimum. Logic is logical. 

Except there is no way the club would set such a target. No way.

Sends all sort of wrong messages to the players and breaks the golden rule - respect your opponents.

Goody will likely do what he always does - set a benchmark score we want to keep them under. That's ot.

It he wants us to score more heavily than we otherwise would he will simply develop an agressive plan, and specific strategies (eg go fast, play on quickly, take on high risk corridor kicks etc) that if implemented effectively will lead to higher scores.

And the margin, if there is one, will look after itself.

1 hour ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Only, some are harder to locate than others. I’m sure there’s plenty of folks who wish they could find mine 😁

Me and you both WCW.

16 minutes ago, Mel Bourne said:

 With McGovern looking a likely out, the need for an extra tall is negated. 

Except for the need for a second ruck.

They could use petty and maybe tmac, but neither have taken a centre stoppage ruck contest this year and I both have had recent foot injuries- do we want to risk them getting smashed at centre bounce?

I wouldn't mind to see verell get the call up.