binman

Click bait headline

I assumed it was going to be an update on Smithy's WADA case.

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Yet in the presser Goodwin's biggest focus was on how poor we were in the contest (which I think it's fair to say reflects more strongly on the mids than anyone else).

And the Tweet that's just been posted shows that our four A-grade midfield players (Gawn, Viney, Oliver, Trac) are having their worst seasons in terms of ground ball gets in years.

I also think it's a bit disingenuous to say that when opposition mids do well "it's not on the mids". Perhaps a better phrase would be "it's not entirely on the mids".

In relation to the weekend, @WheeloRatings are you able to break down the scores from stoppages stat per quarter?

Yep, Goody's focus was our contest.

But that it no way a reflection on the mids. 

Clarry had 20 contested possessions - the most of any player, six more than Kelly, who had the second most cps

And clarry had twice as many cps  than the wunerkind Reid.

Our next most was Max, who like Reid had 10 cps, salo and tracc  next with 9 each and viney had 8.

Head to head, the aggregate cp count of our three best mids (Tracc, Clarry and Jack) versus theirs (Reid, Kelly and Gimbey) was 37-35 - our way.

Our drop in ground ball numbers is in direct correlation to our change in method. 

For the same reason, as evidenced by data wheelo put in the transition thread, our post clearance contested possessions numbers have similarly cratered. Ditto clearance numbers.

Which makes sense given the method we are trying to implement is nowhere near as contest focused, their are less stoppages and fewer rentries into a packed forward line.

47 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

I'd prefer to agree that form fluctuates for a multitude of reasons.  Load management still unquantifiable impact imo

Agree that form fluctuates for a multitude of reasons. 

Of course it does.

And one of those multitude of reasons is the program the high performance team puts in place. It's why clubs spend a fortune on them.

And fatigue is another of those multitude of reasons form fluctuates 

And agreee its extremely difficult to quantify it or determine how much a factor it is. Impossible for fans actually.

But you don't need to be a sports scientist to realise when a team is fatigued. You can see it.

Look at the performance by the Cats against the suns.

Whatever the reason - the heat, the humidity, their high performance program, load management- blind Freddy could see they were spent 10 minutes into that game. 

8 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Last year Collingwood lost to Hawthorn the week after Hawthorn had lost to St Kilda.

Earlier this year Sydney lost to Richmond, who have just lost by 100 in back to back weeks. 

This.

And this week the flag favourite 3 weeks back, the giants lost its 3rd game on end.

As did the cats, favourite for the flag coming unbeaten into the dees game, with 160 points put past them by a mid table team on the weekend.

Port got smashed by the crows.

Is anyone seriously writing the Giants, cats or Port off?

Footy fans are going to have get used to seemingly crazy results.

There will be plenty more as whether fans want to accept it or pretend it's not a factor, load management and fatigue plays an increasingly significant role in the outcome of home and away games.

16 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

First match since Round 9 2020 where no Melbourne player polled any coaches votes.

Bringing the horror stats this week wheelo.

2 hours ago, Jjrogan said:

just forgetting the stats for a moment (and yes I know you were addressing a previous point) the games we have lost the opposing mids have really dominated the coaches votes and score involvements.

Heeney, Warner, Cripps, Walsh, Rayner, Dunkley, Mccluggage, Reid, Kelly.  

So this isn't a one off.   Sure, there's the odd Weitering and Waterman but by and large the midfield opponents of Oliver and Viney and Petracca have really been the influential opposition match winners on our losses. (And even a few of our wins).  They haven't been abysmal but  they've had their colours lowered repeatedly, which is a huge step down.

 

This is where there seems to be a disconnect.

Our mids have had their colours lowered because the opposition mids have played well?

That doesn't make sense.

Our mids don't play on their mids. And we don't tag. The ball is bounced and they go their seperate ways.

The one time they play on each other is at stoppages, and as I pointed out we scored almost four more goals from stoppages than them.

So when our mids were head to head with theirs, they pansted them.

If opposition mids gets off the chain, it's not on the mids.

It's on the coaches (eg with the sets ups, choosing to tag or not, pre match plans etc) and the whole team (eg all team defence, all team pressure, all team, spread).

Besides, tracc is number 2 in the afl for score involvements. And up there for coaches votes. So he's going ok.

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

@binman have to discuss strange “stat” is score from kick in.  We struggled to get the ball outside defence.
Eagles had scores on 5 from kickin and 4 down the middle corridor.  😡

No one realised they were attacking down the middle or having the full back run past to get the handball until it was too late !!  😡

I thought heard that stat on the coverage.

It jumped out because its so rare to score any goals from kick in, let alone five!

But according to @WheeloRatingsstats above, neither team scored a single point from a kick in.

2 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Surely the inside 50 differential, time in forward half differential, CP, post-clearance CP and pressure stats also reflect on the midfield?

Sure, of course.

But only in so far as those stats reflect the performance of the entire team, not just the 3-4 mids who attend the majority of the stoppages 

We were smashed in cp early, but evened up by game's end.

Pressure was ok early but fell away badly by game's end.

And we were smashed for the others - most worryingly post clearance cp.

Sure the mids play a role, but we play an all team defensive sytem so you cany blame the mids for tgose sort of poor team stats (which I'm not suggesting you are doing TA) 

Particularly given viney and Oliver were one and three respectively fir most pressure applied and I'm guessing came close to having the most contested possessions (I haven't checked).

And I'd add that post clearance contested possessions is by definition a stat that usually only tangentily attributal* to the mids as it is the possession after the clearance from a stoppage- and the mids are at the stoppage, not down field

*ie the more pressure our mids put on an opponent who wins a clearance the easier it is for us to win the next possession because of say a scrubby, under pressure bail out kick. 

And the converse is true. The cleaner a mid is when they win a clearance the better our chance of winning the next possession.

The above two scenarios also apply to turnovers and turnover marks (but again, it's nor usually the mids winning turnovers because they ate at the contest).

28 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Stats. 
 

EAGLES 105. Dees 70. 
 

Inside 50s. 36-57 😡

Goals from turnovers 1-11🤡

Clearances centre 13-15😡

kicking efficiency 57% vs 72%🤢🤢
 

All true.

The third stat being the key one.

But on centre clearances, apparently we were totally smashed by the blues last week because they scored 3 more goals from them then us.

Well, by that logic, given we scored 3 more goals (+18 and 25 points on total - twice our season average) from centre clearances we smashed the Eagles this week.

We were +3 for scores from stoppages (+7 for total clearances fom general stoppages, so +5 for total clearances ie cc and around the ground).

So we nearly plus four goals (+21 points) for clearances.

Not bad for a supposedly a woeful midfield.

I mean, we won total stoppages and scores from stoppages by nearly four goals - two pretty important indicators for a midfield I would have thought.

11 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Expecting North to do you a favour these days is like expecting to unwrap a Chupa Chups on the first go.

Or opening any product with instructions to 'peel here to open'.

A cosmic joke.

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

The 2017-18 version dropped games we “should” have won. 
2021- current team has hardly lost any games when overwhelming favourites. I have full confidence we don’t take any opposition lightly.

A very much under rated fact.

So much emphasis is placed on our straight sets finals exit in 2022 and 2023 that it obscures how successful we have been in the last 3.5 seasons.

Since the start of 2021, no team has won more games than us. And as you note a big factor is we don't lose many game we 'shouldn't'.

Of the top of my head the last one was our loss to the giants in the Alice last year. 

And I'd add that another factor in our success is our ability to maintain a good percentage by not getting hammered

Watching the blues getting smashed and the suns monster the cats i wondered when the last time we were were smashed like that. 

Sure, both sides were hit by injuries, but there have been any number of games we have lost where being decimated by injuries has been a big factor (including games where we have lost key players during the game) - and unlike the blues and cats, not got smashed.

And it makes a big difference.

At the end of this round we could be plus 20% against the blues, plus 12% against the blues and plus 10% against the giants.

A long way to go in the season, but anything over 10% at season's end is almost worth 4 points.

3 minutes ago, Simmo0911 said:

Half watching, half working atm. Jefferson looks like he's finding a place. Some nice repeat efforts there to give off the goal assist.

That's a great sign as I reckon the need for repeat efforts is the penny that needs to drop for Jefferson.

Did we break the blues too?

9 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

At this point Blues have lost 5.2%

We could be 4 points and more than 20% clear of the blues by the end of the round.

I think my +15 line bet is safe now.

11 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

BBB & McAdam have just come in from stints at Casey Bin.

Very generous to have Petty in the 'a little underdone' list imo.

His first five matches were atrocious and he was a mile away from being anywhere near AFL ready in those first five games.

Has since played one decent match against the Cats in Rnd 8.

Averaging 0.3 goals a game and 0.3 tackles inside 50.  That's 2 goals and 2 tackles inside 50 in seven matches.

He's been netting 2 effective disposals (effective disposals less turnovers) per match.

Not blaming Petty either.  Brought back far too early imho.

Hopefully he can ramp things up from here.

I meant at the start of the season dd about bb. I didn't mention McAdam.

On Petty I meant underdone in terms of his physical readiness no form.

Which makes my point. They obviously felt it was better for Petty to fine full fitness playing AFL football not playing at VFL level. An approach consistent with my point about Selwyn's philosophy.

24 minutes ago, Jeremy said:

We didn’t move Bedford on, offered him a 3 year deal 

#demon myths 

12 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

i understand people wanting to 'bring players back via the vfl' but the history of this current football administration simply doesn't do it

they've clearly made the determination that a 'best team' player is better off getting run through their legs at the highest level, not the lower

i think you'll find that's more the norm for modern afl clubs than not

so feel free to pine for that older mentality of 'bringing players back via the vfl'

i would argue it simply doesn't happen in modern sport at the top level

Its been that way since Burgess took over the high perfroamnce program.

As evidence Selwyn has the same philosophy, just this year alone we have had Tmac, BBB, Petty, Oliver and Bowey all coming back from injury (with the first four clearly being a little underdone) and being selected in the ones as opposed to coming though the magoos. 

Salem will make it six such examples this weekend. 

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

TMac's wonder goal was 2017 and was at Domain Stadium (Subiaco).

Sorry, not sure what you are referring to. You've misquoted me - fake news!

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

TMac's wonder goal was 2017 and was at Domain Stadium (Subiaco).

Oh yeah, so it was!

Would you believe.....

24 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Gold Coast,  3 games in 12 days,  2 in 5 days in Darwin's oppressive heat, this one against 2nd on the ladder??

Did i read that right?

I was assured on 'Land that you can't possibly win these games?... due to bodgie fixturing

Hats of to the suns, they obviously prepared super well.

But it's worth noting that the cats were also playing their 3rd game in 12 days.

The first was their incredibly taxing loss against the dees.

Six days later, they come out flat as a tack on a chilly friday night in geellong against port, flighting their way back to a close loss in another taxing match.

Six days later they are playing their third game in 12 days in 30 plus degree heat and humidity just about as far north from kardinia Park as you can get. Without their  two best players and choosing to rest others.

Great preparation by the suns, they obviously set themselves for the darwin double, a ground they have won their last 5 at by an average of 50 plus points.

But the cats simply could not handle those conditions at all - totally gassed from the get go. Witches hats. 

Makes our effort in similar conditions against the swans look more meritorious.

14 hours ago, DEE fence said:

IIRC - 2018 for the loss in that 4-1 score-line. Including Freo. we are 7-3 for our last 10 games, and our average score for those 10 games is 94 for v 68 against, the highest of any venue.

Yeo is out and Barrass under a cloud.

Not tipping anything as I am a proven jinx, but we love playing at Optus, anyone older than 40 couldn't have imagined this prior to 2018.

(source https://www.aussportstipping.com/sports/afl/stadium_records/team/melbourne/)

 

Optus stadium's first season was 2018.

So six, seasons - this season being the 4th.

Ten games. Seven wins.

Including two of the all time great demon wins - Tmac's the prelim and Grand Final wins in 2021.

Unfortunately I've only been to one game at Optus oval.  Our last in 2018.

10 minutes ago, Billy said:

Looking forward to Scotts press conference, wonder who he’ll blame this week, probably the AFL for scheduling his mob for playing in Darwin 

Against us they were off.

Against Port he ranted about the umpires.

Scott bingo.

What will his excuse be in this presser?

I'm picking schedule. Conditions are tough.

Cats have giants next week.

18 minutes ago, binman said:

Won't be many pumping up the cats strategy of managing players after the last three games.

But there might be some pumping up the sun's strategy.

Back to back games in Darwin, off a 5 day break.

They rested 5 players I think.