binman

On 22/05/2024 at 21:46, binman said:

Midfields are simply not as important as they were even two seasons ago.

Scores from clearances were something 60-70% of total score when goody took over as coach.

It's now only 20-30%, with scores from turnover being the main score source.

I mean you only have to look at the game we just played.

Seven years ago if we were plus 21 for scores from stoppages we win most games.

Not now, particularly when our opponents absolutely smash us on scores from turnover.

Yes mids play a role in creating turnovers and scoring from them, but no more than the high half forwards and wingers and less than intercepting defenders and half back flankers.

Last night's game was yet another example of what i'm talking about above.

The dogs had a whopping 16 center clearances last night, twice as many as the Swans who could only manage 8. 

The Swans were plus 3 for around the ground stoppages, meaning the dogs were +5 for total clearances 

Six years ago if a team had 16 center clearances and their opponent only 8, that would be the ball game.

But as is often the case now, the dogs center square domination was not a decisive factor in the game.  

They scored 6.6.42 from stoppages (in total, ie centre and around the ground combined) to the swans' 5.2.32.

Like so many games now, the decisive factor was scores from turnover, with the dogs scoring 6.10.46 from turnovers and the Swans 11.2.68.

On turnovers, there is no doubt the dogs inaccuracy hurt them, they had 16 to 13 turnover scores after all.

But an interesting factor to consider, particularly as it relates to the discussion about us changing our game plan, is that the dogs dominated inside 50s, particularly in the last quarter, winning inside 50s 60-48.

I think there is enough evidence now to suggest the time in forward half model, high inside 50 numbers with lots of reentries into a crowded forward line (ie our 2021-23  game plan) contributes to inaccuracy. 

The other interesting stat from last nights game, also relevant to the midfield discussion (given the key role mids play in terms of winning contested possessions), is the dogs smashed the swans for contested possessions 138 to 105.  

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

Does this apply to us too? 

Perhaps it's just part of being a fan, but it seems many dees fans, for all manner of things, don't apply the same logic to the dees as they do to other clubs.

Flags are hard to win. Yes we won a flag under goody, but somehow one flag in 7 season for us is a fail. 

We are consistently a contender and give ourselves a chance to win a flag. Underachieved.

The cats and swans are a well run clubs that are always in the frame. Wouldn't it be be great to be a fan of those clubs.

Other contenders get beaten when favorites, a blip. We get beaten as favorites and it's time to rebuild and 'play the kids'.

Other teams struggle for a block of time but they have key players out injured. We have a rough patch for the same reason and we lack depth.

And on, and on and on.

30 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

What happened to Roy George?

I think he's a judge on the UK voice or some such.

5 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

because it didn't hurt to try; it was an experiment that didn't work

we paid little for him, we got little for him

A case could be made that it did work, for the club at least.

Grundy was terrific in that block of games he rucked solo when Max was out injured.

Not that it mattered in the end, but there's a good chance we don't end up top 4 if we didn't have an elite ruck to replace Max.

As you say we got Grundy for a bargain - not bad insurance.

29 minutes ago, bing181 said:

This 150%. Our last two seasons in a nutshell - also underscores how you need luck on your side to win a premiership.

Luck has always been a massive factor, and maybe I'm imagining it, but it seems to be an even bigger factor these days.

6 hours ago, dino rover said:

Doesn’t that suggest we are over weight on salary for our midfield? Have we over invested in midfielders for a clearance contest dominance game that is no longer the secret sauce it was?

It's a good question. 

Tracc and clarry certainly absorb alot of our salary cap. Max too

But that would the same for all teams ie 2 or 3 gun mids take up a big chunks of the cap.

And perhaps I should have said midfields are not as important as they once were - until the finals.

Come finals, the game often devolves into rugby like brutal combat - teams still dont need the 6 or 7 mids they needed 6-7 years go but they need bulls like tracc, jack and clarry up and firing.

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

A loss late season when all your key metrics are healthy can often be a blip. However, a loss when lots of your key metrics are unhealthy can often point to a more significant issue that many on here are overlooking.

We’re 17th from scores from turnover (Only Richmond is worse) over the last 5 matches and we’ve got a midfield mix who have next to nothing score involvement averages (apart from Trac).

A win this week will be nice, but honestly all I want is to kick a healthy score off turnover and an improvement in score involvements across our mids.

Freo are also the best team at moving the ball so it doesn’t get better next week.

Lions lost to the hawks in round 10. 

The pies were in struggle town when the hawks beat them - hit by injury and their key metrics had cratered (most notably scores from turnover and the back half).

On 22/05/2024 at 08:41, chook fowler said:

I'm sure getting our asses kicked by MethCoast wasn't part of the grand plan

No. 

Getting their asses kicked by the 16th placed hawks probably wasn't part of last seasons two grand finalists grand plan either.

Perhaps we can strip the pies of their flag.

16 hours ago, binman said:

@titan_uranus No, I do agree our midfield is down on previous years, at least in terms of looking at them individually.

But we lost gus in the eve of the finals. And clarry, whilst performing remarkably well given his interrupted preseasons, is not yet back to his best. 

And it didn't help losing Bowser in round one, which meant salo had to go back. Nor did it help salo also getting injured.

Against that viney had been terrific, ditto tracc and Max.  

What I have been arguing is that the midfield isn't really a significant issue. The forward line is a much better issue.

Midfields are simply not as important as they were even two seasons ago.

Scores from clearances were something 60-70% of total score when goody took over as coach.

It's now only 20-30%, with scores from turnover being the main score source.

I mean you only have to look at the game we just played. Seven years ago if we were plus 21 for scores from stoppages we win most games.

Not now, particularly when our opponents absolutely smash us on scores from turnover.

Yes mids play a role in creating turnovers and scoring from them, but no more than the high half forwards and wingers and less than intercepting defenders and half back flankers.

99 problems, and the mids ain't one.

On 22/05/2024 at 17:06, titan_uranus said:

And I fully agree with you that our midfielders are down on previous years, which is something I don't think Binman agrees with.

@titan_uranus No, I do agree our midfield is down on previous years, at least in terms of looking at them individually.

But we lost gus on the eve of the season.

And clarry, whilst performing remarkably well given his interrupted preseason, is not yet back to his best. 

And it didn't help losing Bowser in round one, which meant salo had to go back.

Nor did it help salo also getting injured.

Against that viney has been terrific, ditto tracc and Max.  

What I have been arguing is that the midfield isn't really a significant issue for us. The forward line is a much better issue.

Midfields are simply not as important as they were even two seasons ago.

Scores from clearances were something 60-70% of total score when goody took over as coach.

It's now only 20-30%, with scores from turnover being the main score source.

I mean you only have to look at the game we just played.

Seven years ago if we were plus 21 for scores from stoppages we win most games.

Not now, particularly when our opponents absolutely smash us on scores from turnover.

Yes mids play a role in creating turnovers and scoring from them, but no more than the high half forwards and wingers and less than intercepting defenders and half back flankers.

1 hour ago, bing181 said:

But we still need to finish top 4 to have a real chance, so the keep your powder dry till finals strategy is not without risk.

Agree.

Though of course every strategy has risk. 

We were cooked come finals in 2022.

I actually think they were in good shape condition wise last year, but were cruelled by injury. 

1 hour ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Yes but the full quote doesn’t have the same effect for the narrative.

I don’t know if we’ll fully go back, I think a few tweaks because we have clearly changed things up a little and I would expect a compromise of sought between relying on slingshot from turnover and just brutality at the stoppage and locking it inside F50

Carlton changed mid last season to going back to being brutal contested beasts. 

Yes, that's my take.

We will largely revert to 'our' tried and true method, but hopefully retaining some of the elements of our current method, eg hitting some high risk corridor kicks, using the lions style 20 metre foreard kicks on rhe 45, and some run and dare off the hb. 

Those elements are important I think in terms of reducing the frequency of rentries back into a crazy crowded inside 50 (which had historically been a big driver of our low score to inside 50 ratio - or inefficiency as it is oft described)

Which, as much as I hate to say it, almost 100% describes the method the pies used come finals.

On the quote, it was no doubt deliberatety used out of context in the text to rile dees fans and create a false narrative about where we are at.

Instructive it was then quoted on here.

2 hours ago, george_on_the_outer said:

It would be interesting to know how much of those numbers are because Ed Langdon was missing. 

Statistically, bugger all.

For one thing, whoever replaced him, whilst not covering the same territory or same speeds etc, would still have done their share (eg the gap might be 2kms less distance covered).

And secondly, they are total numbers, ie 23 players. 

1 hour ago, titan_uranus said:

The context to this quote is that he was arguing that we’ve tried playing a different way to 2022-23, it isn’t working well enough to win the flag, but it’s not too late for us to adjust back to something which more closely resembles 202-23, which he expects we will do. 

I haven't listened to his slot yet (but will), but if that's what he said i wholeheartedly agree.

In fact it is basically the same thing I have posted on a number of occasions- ie implement a less bruising, less physically taxing method during the home and away season and transition back to our normal forward half model come finals  (which is basically what the pies did last year).

The key learning fron 2022 and 2023 is that playing the brutal model we have used since the start of 2020 is not sustainable for 23 rounds plus finals as evidenced by the contact and other injuries that decimated us come finals the last 2 seasons.

It's funny, many posters made that exact argument inthe last 2 seasons (ie an unstainable model for a fill season).

And they were proven right.

Anyone who made that argument should be well pleased that their advice has been heeded.

The downside to goody having done so is we are going to lose more games this home and away season than in the ladt three seasons.

6 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

Well in 2022-23 we were flying along nicely at this time of the year before injuries and poor goalkicking cost us

We are still four months away from the business end of the year 

Its almost as if goody was not joking when he has repeatedly said our goal is to be playing our best footy come September or that the team who improves the most during the season are the ones contending at the pointy end of the season.

I mean, I guess he might have some evidence to support that supposition. Like the blues and swans last year.

And the lions too for that matter, who were 6-4 after 10 games and were flogged by thr hawks, who finished the season in 16th (and beat the pies in round 21), in round 10.

It's almost as if goody has done some analysis of why we went out of the finals in straight sets the last two years and what other clubs that have done well have done. 

11 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

Six weeks for a shepperd?

What's the world coming to?

8 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I’m sorry, maybe our team was just load managing after a loss yet again 

Ouch, Dame Nellie Melba standard comeback right there. 

An iconoclast with a rapier wit. 

That's a dangerous combination -

51 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Our team is starting to resemble our fan base again. 

 

Such an iconoclast....

1 hour ago, Superunknown said:

You rrrrrrannng?

I was just pondering to myself on this morning’s run if we might be loading. 

Be careful. Very triggering topic for some on here.

By the by, I'm def of the view load related fatigue was a factor in the performance.

Not an excuse for it, but a factor nonetheless.

Much the same way as I believe our woeful kicking was a factor in the performance. 

Not an excuse for it, but a factor nonetheless.

14 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

I was going off DD’s table in the stats file.. 

 

Ta. Right you are then

(i was going off the champion data Player ratings)

3 hours ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

Wanting to drop our leading possession getter from Sunday, who also had 8 tackles, 4 score involvements, had 23 pressure acts for 52 pressure points and was our number 1 ranked player? You’d need to be a bit nuts yes.. 

Agree with all (except he was our 2nd highest rated player behind maxy).

14 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

And maybe I'm missing something, but I'm not sure you can explain the drop off in these areas on there being fewer stoppages each game. Our average CP and clearance differentials across the season have us at 10th and 11th respectively. So whilst there may be fewer stoppages and therefore fewer opportunities for CPs/clearances, we're still being outdone by our opponents in those areas to, IMO, too great an extent.

Our numbers for centre clearances and stoppage clearances are almost exactly the same as the swans.

And we are averageing 2.5 cps a game more than the Swans.

I use them as a reference point because we are trying to implement a similar method.

And the Swans success this season highlight how clearances and cps are simply not as important as they used to be.

What is important?

Scores from turnover.

Who is number one for scores from turnover?

No surprise, it's the Swans (suns, giants, cats next).

Our issue is not that we are winning too few clearances or contested possessions.

Our issue is that we are not scoring enough from turnover.

The swans are #1, averaging 61.5 points per game from turnover.

We are 14th for average scores from turnover (behind freo of all teams) on 40.1 point per game.

Click bait headline

I assumed it was going to be an update on Smithy's WADA case.

16 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Yet in the presser Goodwin's biggest focus was on how poor we were in the contest (which I think it's fair to say reflects more strongly on the mids than anyone else).

And the Tweet that's just been posted shows that our four A-grade midfield players (Gawn, Viney, Oliver, Trac) are having their worst seasons in terms of ground ball gets in years.

I also think it's a bit disingenuous to say that when opposition mids do well "it's not on the mids". Perhaps a better phrase would be "it's not entirely on the mids".

In relation to the weekend, @WheeloRatings are you able to break down the scores from stoppages stat per quarter?

Yep, Goody's focus was our contest.

But that it no way a reflection on the mids. 

Clarry had 20 contested possessions - the most of any player, six more than Kelly, who had the second most cps

And clarry had twice as many cps  than the wunerkind Reid.

Our next most was Max, who like Reid had 10 cps, salo and tracc  next with 9 each and viney had 8.

Head to head, the aggregate cp count of our three best mids (Tracc, Clarry and Jack) versus theirs (Reid, Kelly and Gimbey) was 37-35 - our way.

Our drop in ground ball numbers is in direct correlation to our change in method. 

For the same reason, as evidenced by data wheelo put in the transition thread, our post clearance contested possessions numbers have similarly cratered. Ditto clearance numbers.

Which makes sense given the method we are trying to implement is nowhere near as contest focused, their are less stoppages and fewer rentries into a packed forward line.

47 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

I'd prefer to agree that form fluctuates for a multitude of reasons.  Load management still unquantifiable impact imo

Agree that form fluctuates for a multitude of reasons. 

Of course it does.

And one of those multitude of reasons is the program the high performance team puts in place. It's why clubs spend a fortune on them.

And fatigue is another of those multitude of reasons form fluctuates 

And agreee its extremely difficult to quantify it or determine how much a factor it is. Impossible for fans actually.

But you don't need to be a sports scientist to realise when a team is fatigued. You can see it.

Look at the performance by the Cats against the suns.

Whatever the reason - the heat, the humidity, their high performance program, load management- blind Freddy could see they were spent 10 minutes into that game.