binman

This. And this week the flag favourite 3 weeks back, the giants lost its 3rd game on end. As did the cats, favourite for the flag coming unbeaten into the dees game, with 160 points put past them by a mid table team on the weekend. Port got smashed by the crows. Is anyone seriously writing the Giants, cats or Port off? Footy fans are going to have get used to seemingly crazy results. There will be plenty more as whether fans want to accept it or pretend it's not a factor, load management and fatigue plays an increasingly significant role in the outcome of home and away games.

Bringing the horror stats this week wheelo.

This is where there seems to be a disconnect. Our mids have had their colours lowered because the opposition mids have played well? That doesn't make sense. Our mids don't play on their mids. And we don't tag. The ball is bounced and they go their seperate ways. The one time they play on each other is at stoppages, and as I pointed out we scored almost four more goals from stoppages than them. So when our mids were head to head with theirs, they pansted them. If opposition mids gets off the chain, it's not on the mids. It's on the coaches (eg with the sets ups, choosing to tag or not, pre match plans etc) and the whole team (eg all team defence, all team pressure, all team, spread). Besides, tracc is number 2 in the afl for score involvements. And up there for coaches votes. So he's going ok.

I thought heard that stat on the coverage. It jumped out because its so rare to score any goals from kick in, let alone five! But according to @WheeloRatingsstats above, neither team scored a single point from a kick in.

Sure, of course. But only in so far as those stats reflect the performance of the entire team, not just the 3-4 mids who attend the majority of the stoppages We were smashed in cp early, but evened up by game's end. Pressure was ok early but fell away badly by game's end. And we were smashed for the others - most worryingly post clearance cp. Sure the mids play a role, but we play an all team defensive sytem so you cany blame the mids for tgose sort of poor team stats (which I'm not suggesting you are doing TA) Particularly given viney and Oliver were one and three respectively fir most pressure applied and I'm guessing came close to having the most contested possessions (I haven't checked). And I'd add that post clearance contested possessions is by definition a stat that usually only tangentily attributal* to the mids as it is the possession after the clearance from a stoppage- and the mids are at the stoppage, not down field *ie the more pressure our mids put on an opponent who wins a clearance the easier it is for us to win the next possession because of say a scrubby, under pressure bail out kick. And the converse is true. The cleaner a mid is when they win a clearance the better our chance of winning the next possession. The above two scenarios also apply to turnovers and turnover marks (but again, it's nor usually the mids winning turnovers because they ate at the contest).

All true. The third stat being the key one. But on centre clearances, apparently we were totally smashed by the blues last week because they scored 3 more goals from them then us. Well, by that logic, given we scored 3 more goals (+18 and 25 points on total - twice our season average) from centre clearances we smashed the Eagles this week. We were +3 for scores from stoppages (+7 for total clearances fom general stoppages, so +5 for total clearances ie cc and around the ground). So we nearly plus four goals (+21 points) for clearances. Not bad for a supposedly a woeful midfield. I mean, we won total stoppages and scores from stoppages by nearly four goals - two pretty important indicators for a midfield I would have thought.

Or opening any product with instructions to 'peel here to open'. A cosmic joke.

A very much under rated fact. So much emphasis is placed on our straight sets finals exit in 2022 and 2023 that it obscures how successful we have been in the last 3.5 seasons. Since the start of 2021, no team has won more games than us. And as you note a big factor is we don't lose many game we 'shouldn't'. Of the top of my head the last one was our loss to the giants in the Alice last year. And I'd add that another factor in our success is our ability to maintain a good percentage by not getting hammered Watching the blues getting smashed and the suns monster the cats i wondered when the last time we were were smashed like that. Sure, both sides were hit by injuries, but there have been any number of games we have lost where being decimated by injuries has been a big factor (including games where we have lost key players during the game) - and unlike the blues and cats, not got smashed. And it makes a big difference. At the end of this round we could be plus 20% against the blues, plus 12% against the blues and plus 10% against the giants. A long way to go in the season, but anything over 10% at season's end is almost worth 4 points.

That's a great sign as I reckon the need for repeat efforts is the penny that needs to drop for Jefferson.

Did we break the blues too?

We could be 4 points and more than 20% clear of the blues by the end of the round.

I think my +15 line bet is safe now.

I meant at the start of the season dd about bb. I didn't mention McAdam. On Petty I meant underdone in terms of his physical readiness no form. Which makes my point. They obviously felt it was better for Petty to fine full fitness playing AFL football not playing at VFL level. An approach consistent with my point about Selwyn's philosophy.

#demon myths

Its been that way since Burgess took over the high perfroamnce program. As evidence Selwyn has the same philosophy, just this year alone we have had Tmac, BBB, Petty, Oliver and Bowey all coming back from injury (with the first four clearly being a little underdone) and being selected in the ones as opposed to coming though the magoos. Salem will make it six such examples this weekend.

Sorry, not sure what you are referring to. You've misquoted me - fake news!

Oh yeah, so it was! Would you believe.....

Hats of to the suns, they obviously prepared super well. But it's worth noting that the cats were also playing their 3rd game in 12 days. The first was their incredibly taxing loss against the dees. Six days later, they come out flat as a tack on a chilly friday night in geellong against port, flighting their way back to a close loss in another taxing match. Six days later they are playing their third game in 12 days in 30 plus degree heat and humidity just about as far north from kardinia Park as you can get. Without their two best players and choosing to rest others. Great preparation by the suns, they obviously set themselves for the darwin double, a ground they have won their last 5 at by an average of 50 plus points. But the cats simply could not handle those conditions at all - totally gassed from the get go. Witches hats. Makes our effort in similar conditions against the swans look more meritorious.

Optus stadium's first season was 2018. So six, seasons - this season being the 4th. Ten games. Seven wins. Including two of the all time great demon wins - Tmac's the prelim and Grand Final wins in 2021. Unfortunately I've only been to one game at Optus oval. Our last in 2018.

Against us they were off. Against Port he ranted about the umpires. Scott bingo. What will his excuse be in this presser? I'm picking schedule. Conditions are tough.

Cats have giants next week.

But there might be some pumping up the sun's strategy. Back to back games in Darwin, off a 5 day break. They rested 5 players I think.

Are you watching the sun cats game?

Won't be many pumping up the cats strategy of managing players after the last three games.

The cats have currently lost a tick under 13%.