binman

I posted after the trade went through about all the potential risks of trading in a super high priced player at this point in their chase for a flag. Particularly a player who is still 3-4 seasons away from his peak or in the short term even has even yet to master a specific role (eg nick daicos or Horne Francis) The rik of player discontent was high on that list of risks. And the vibe is, as you suggest luci, not real for freo on that front. One thing I didn't include as a risk, is the potential impact of potential discontent on how hard they train over the preseason. Hard to go the extra mile, pardon the pun, when you are jacked off. I'm not sure of course how well they trained - but to my eye they don't look nearly fit enough. They simply could not go with the crows, who look to have had a brilliant off season under Burgess. If true, freo are toast this season. There is no chance in season to get to elite fitness - at least not a whole team. And with the best teams keeping the ball in motion more often, freo will literally not be able to keep up. Compare them to the dees. We seem to be super connected and by all accounts trained luke demons on tbe preseason. And were super committed. For example the voluntary weekend running sessions the dees apparently did. Or the work the WA young fellas did on their Xmas break to come back in optimal shape (two of those boys, van ruin and jmac are in the 22).

Charlie should change it to treaty by yothu yindi

I wish I had been a bit less responsible.

Classy player

Lions will win tonight. They will phyiscally go after the pies, in particular the daicos brothers As i noted ahead of the last round, the way to beat the the pies and swans method is through intense pressure on the ball carier and shutting off corridor options (which has a two fold effect - continue to take the ecorridor on and turn it over more often, don't take it on and lose your one wood). The dees did both of these things brilliantly against the swans. On the former we continualy harrased and pressured their key kickers and as a result scored 6 goals from turnrover. On the latter, think how often swans players at half back looked in board for an option, even shaped to kick into the corridor and then changed their mind and went down the line instead. The Mcartin brothers must have done 10 times between them. Blakey too. The Lions will surely look to take a similar approach in this game. I think the humidity wil be a huge facor because the Lions game is built around contested footy and the Pies one wood is their ball movement and ability to hit targets with high risk kicks. The lions model is less impacted by humidity than that of the pies. One, a slippery ball means more contested footy and ground balls - which suits the Lions (the pies imnproved contested numbers nothwistanding) Two, assuming the lions bring the pressure, a slippery ball makes it is more likey the pies' chains of possession will break down - which is what happened in the first quarter of their game against the tigers when the ground was wet. And three, the foundation of the Pies game is the crazy amount of all team running they do (eg to create outnumbers, multiple leads to hit up to control the ball - somethig we have really adopted - that wave of players following the ball in transition etc etc). If it is as humid as it was when we played the lions, the pies will really struggle to maintain that sort of running to the end of the game. The other factor is the Lion's record at the GABBA suggests that behind the cats at tax payer's park, they have the biggest home ground advantage of any team in the AFL. They certainly have an imposing record there. Lions by 27 points. Betting suggestions: Lions to cover their +2.5 line @ 1.90 for 10 units. Lions to win by more than 39 points @ 7.50 for 1 unit

There is ZERO chance Spargo and Nibbler won't be in the starting 22 (unless injured of course). I'm not having a shot at you, but i honestly don't get how any dees fan who is passionate enough about the club to post on Demonland, and therefore i assume watch us play regularly, could fail to understand how important Spargo and ANB are and how incredibly unlikely it is either will be dropped or made sub. Even if someone doesn't understand how important Spargo and ANB are, surely the fact that the last time either was dropped from the ones was 2020 should be enough evidence they are both absolutely best 22 locks and are going nowhere (maybe ANB was dropped once last year? If so, that is the only game he has missed in two and a bit seasons).

It can mean, which i think is the case for some WC players listed as TBC, that they don't actually know yet how serious an injury is or how long they might be out.

My first ever face palm!

You don't think there is chance that is how they have been instructed to play when the opposition has momentum? You know, be prudent with the risks you take (like the play that set up the Chandler goal that stopped their momentum and triggered our more attacking play from that point on). Why? Because whilst risk (eg an aggressive kick to the corridor) can lead to reward (ie we score) it also significantly increases the chances of the opposition scoring. As Goody has said any number of times (and pointed out again in his post match presser, about both this match and the round one match) the oppo will inevitably have the momentum at some point in match but the critical thing is to limit how much they score when they do. Weather the storm and all that. Like a boxer protecting the head when their opponent is on top and landing a knockout blow when the momentum swings. Most other teams would have given up 4 or 5 goals - and the lead - during the period the Swans had the momentum. Not us. Once we wrest the momentum back, we put the pedal to the metal, increase the risks we take and look to make hay whilst the sun shines and score heavily when WE have the momentum. And put the game to bed. You know, exactly as happened, as you yourself note, on Sunday. And has happened so many other times under Goody. We have played three games this season and it has already occurred twice (ie the oppo have momentum, we ensure they can't take advantage of it, we wrest it back and blitz) I watch with both eyes open, and because i do i know that this hold and surge method is one of our key strategies and has been deployed so many times under Goody it's not funny - the GF being the most famous example. But hey, as you say, you look at the game your way I will look at it my way.

I don't post in games day threads, or even if read it - even when watching live on TV. It distracts me I don’t talk much to anyone when watching the game either. I'm concentrating. But I'm guessing there is a community of sorts that regularly post in game day threads. And they enjoy it - even the silinness and hot takes. What happens in the game day thread, stays in the game day thread. Each to their own. And posters get a pass for most hot takes given the passion and high emotion (which I completely share too). But three days post game leaves plenty of time for more sober reflection. So I'm happy to say 80% of this post is absolute rubbish. Case study one: 'They still have a problem with transferring' Total bollocks. In fact we are NUMBER ONE in the AFL in this exact stat. Four slots above everybody's fast transfer darlings the pies, even though they have one more win than us and in our loss to the lions we were well down on that stat.

Maybe. Maybe not. Would have tomo really added much more than an injured Lever? Who else could have realistically come into the team? Maybe disco, but same question applies. The big one was jvr. By all accounts he was very close to replacing maxy. But again, he would have made little difference. Talk is of up to 11 players carrying things into the finals. Realistically Bedford, Chandler, tomo and jvr, were really the only possible ins. Even if all came in that would not have been enough to move the dial. We were toast. In weighing up whether it was the right call not to make changes, the outcome of selecting them needs to be assessed in totality. Let's say we did bring say jvr and kade in. What impact would being smashed in a final have made to their development - particularly JVRs? He had a brilliant debut on Sunday. What a perfect way to commence a career- at the g, dees crowd. a big performance and a big win. Everyone sees a player who is ready. Not a youg'un who bounces in and out of the side like ugle Hagen, Philthorpe, Amarti, Logan McDonald, the Tex Walker wannabe at the crows, Darcy etc etc. And mote importantly JVR knows he belongs and is ready. Same story for Kade. Huge summer, impressive preseason, rewarded with a round one senior berth and looks to be a lock. Maybe that doesn't happen if he plays last year because he has a poor one and wonders if he is up to it. Deckchairs on the titanic last year.

Could not agree more deanox. I can't believe how many DL posters have bought into the false narrtiave that goody is 'stubborn', not innovative and is inflexible. Don't even get me started on Goody has his favorites, or (insert player here) must have incrinimating photos palaver (yes i know that is supposed to be a joke - but it is a joke that aims to make a particular point) There are are number of examples of his innvation and flexibilty, inlcuding, but not limited to: his innovative diamond structure in 2017 to the ultra fast, wave running ball movement in 2018 (not unlike everyobe scurrent darlngs, the pies) His use of players running off the half back at cetre bounces in 2018 The shifytin 2019 to developing a cutting edge zone defence thta has become the foundation of our game (he persisted with this in the face of his critics and the losses we endured that year) His embrace of the Burgess philosophy to preparation and the reulting focus on ultra fitness (which, for exmaple the Cats openly said they copied last year) The way we control momentum - our ability to score multiple goals in a short space of time is clealry not a happy accident; as they like to say in the dstates, it is a feature not a bug (irds worh noting that this ability to score quickly can be connected back to our scoring power in 2018 His use of two ruckman - remmber the falck he copped for recriting pruess? Coaching from the bench His selction of Bowey in 2021 Chasing and gettng Grunby The tweaks to our game plan this season I could go on, but you gte the drift

Shirley, you can't be serious. A good win? We beat one of last year's gf teams by 9 goals. By the by we had a pretty good big boy out too. No disrespect to Reid, who was their only big out, maxy he ain't. We had a pretty good small out too - not to mention a handy half back flanker.

AFL.com.au has replays of all matches up aprx 20-24 hours after the game. Better too coz there is no guff (eg quarter time ads, half time palaver etc)- just each quarter replayed. Here's the link to the replay of yesterday's game: https://www.afl.com.au/video/896386/match-replay-melbourne-v-sydney?videoId=896386&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1680466200001&pageSize=50&tagNames=ProgramCategory%3AMatch Replays&references=AFL_COMPSEASON%3A52%2CAFL_ROUND%3A760

Snap

On point one, not sure how many contested pack marks we took around the ground, but we must have had a few. In round one we only took 2 contested marks. Same story round two (ie 2 contested marks). We took ELEVEN in this game On point two, i wonder if you are underestimating how much pressure we applied. We choked their ability to hit targets through the corridor and on transition - which is their one wood. The only team better with that model is the Pies. The swans made a GF with this model after all. As i noted in a pregame post, the way to beat that model is pressure (and of course match the oppo on spread and all team defensive running - which the pies, who are clearly super fit, are brilliant at). Just as we saw with the swans in the GF, when the pressure was dialled up, the Swans game plan fell apart.

It's an interesting one. They backed themselves in that they could control Sydney's three talls yesterday without a third tall defender. I reckon a big part of that calculation was Franklin is shell of the player he was in his prime, particularly at the moment coming off some injury interruptions, and offers nothing if not kicking goals. May could basically sit on him and zone off as required. And Amarti is a long way from being a dominant AFL player (by the by, he is a good example of the risks of selecting key forwards before they are ready - as opposed to how we have managed JVR). Logan McDonald is talented, but also still has a fair way to go. And like the lions, it is the medium forwards like Heeney and Papley that cause us problems, so playing an extra medium defender like Hibbo was clever. The Eagles only have the two-gun tall forwards in Darling and Allen - and their game is built around the intercept marking of Barass and Mcgovern, so in normal circumstances it would make sense for Petty to play forward against the Eagles. But Mcgovern did his hammy, so Petty's forward defensive work (which was a big part of his role yesterday) won't be needed like it was against the Swans. Hibbo, and/or Melk if sub, can take Barass. My gut feel is Petty will play forward this week as Goody likes a three tall forward line (not counting the resting ruck - which for all intents and purposes is JVR until Maxy comes back) and someone has to play TMac's role of getting up and down the ground, blocking and creating aerial contests.

Precisely. With Tmac out (who wasn't bringing the ball to ground as well as he usually does) we needed someone else to play the role to ensure the oppo don't intercept mark and to give our small forwards a chance to win the ground ball. And Petty, with his competitiveness, aerial strength, defensive nous and ability to read the flight of the ball was the perfect replacement. He played the role brilliant i thought. As expected, Van Ruin, was also fantastic in creating aerial contests and negating oppo interceptors. Super smart coaching by Goody. But kudos also has to go the back 7 for making it possible (if their three talls got on top he surely would have been sent back).

I watched Kade Chandler closely quite a bit yesterday. It seemed to me Kade did a fair bit more of the arc to arc running yesterday (which is one of Nibbler's key roles), and i think Nibbler did less (certainly on the GPS numbers ANB's numbers were well below his normal output), allowing him to play a more true half forward flanker role. Which means, if that is indeed the case, Nibbler is less gassed, less often and more able to convert goal scoring opportunities, like his brilliant set shot - because he is not spending 30 seconds just trying to get his breath back before taking the kick. I think that sort of running helps Kade stay in the team.

One of life's great pleasures - getting home from watching a win like that, and watching the replay.

Three beautiful kicks in that scoring chain. The first was Oliver istreami.t foreard in tbe centre, realising he had nothing forward, kicking laterally to hunter. Didn't hit him, would have been all but impossible to do di,but it was just such a clever kick. Summed up the situation immediately, kicked it with the outside of the boot in front of hunter, who didn't have to break side. Then hunter's beautifully weighted kick to Chandler. Then Chandler nails it. Tbat was so critical because tbey were on top, had all the momentum and had just missed a similar set shot that would almost levelled the scores. Absolute game changer.

Kozzie to come back though the magoos

With all due respects, whilst I think this is an important game for the team and is a big test, this is not a crucial game for Goodwin. I mean he win a flag in 2021 and we finished 2nd after the home and away last season. On saints, let's see where they are at in 6 weeks.

Spot on. They are super fit. I heard an interview yesterday on RSN brekafast with Daicos senior who said the thing that was missed last year when people talked about all their close wins was how brilliant their 'condtioning' was last season Mcrae has made a point of referencing their condtion and how solid their preseason was mutiple times this year. Their game plan is actually very similar to ours in the sense that it relies on wave running and creating out numbers thouygh work rate. And just like ours, it relies on them being, and remaining, super fit to work. All credit to them for being so fit - they must have teriifc program in place. And the players are obvipoulsy fully invested. But if they can't mainatin that condtioning they will fall aawy like we did last year. Three of their key players in Cameron, Howe and Cox are all out with medium term injuries that will impact both their own fitness levels and the teams performnce. As you say, it's a long season