binman

Only so far as it might get into players head. A ground is a ground. There's all sorts of anomalous statistical quirks in footy. If it was a priority for them to win that game because they thought they needed to win games at the g, they would have won it. They were paddling in that last quarter, which is why the hawks attacked with run all game. Incomparable to their running power they have shown most of the season, including their first half blitz of us in round two. It didn't look like a target match for them. They are no different to us - it's all about September.

The real story for the media. But I'll bet my bottom dollar not for the lions.

Do they (need to win games like that)? We played the hawks about the same stage of the 2021 season. On our home deck. They were no better then than they are now. We had about the same win loss record as the lions did ahead of today's match. Maybe even ladder position. We drew that match. I well recall the gnashing of teeth on here, and plenty of posters declaring we were pretenders not contenders. How could a serious contender only mansge a draw against the hawks yada yada yada. Not beating the hawks didn't seem to harm our chances of winning a flag. For the pies to beat us, they will have to be perfect offensively and effectively stop our mutiple scoring options (AFL #1).

Go tiges.

And that's the better ones.

Against the blues goody had some really unusual forward set ups at centre bounces (for us). I was at the top of the Ponsford, looking down the ground and they really chopped and changed their syarting structure and personnel up forward. One had them all in a straight line goal square to centre circle, with Smith at full forward and nibbler at chf. Another had them spread really wide. With Chandler and nibbler up high and wide. And heaps of space for jvr.

No I'm not at all. Because I don't see this game as some litmus test. And I don't buy into the weekly pretender or contender bull dust. Take the lion's loss. Doesn't change my rating of the lion's chances of winning the flag one iota. I believe goody and Lever when they say it's all about being in our best shape come finals. Not now. If we win, well great. If we lose, unless we get demolished, my confidence in winning the flag will be undiminished. And it's a nonsense that we are 'working through bigger issues than they are with our general connection and forward delivery' How can that possibly be true when we have now had almost exactly the same fixture in terms of difficulty of opponent, have had a much togher fixturr with travel aand breaks (after Monday, the pies will have played 8 of their 13 games at the G), have lost three more games, yet STILL outscored the pies? Maybe it is tbe 'eye test' i have heard footy media trot out (as of their perception trumps the objective fact of the ladder)?

Impact of an increased block of aerobic and power conditioning. Lewis almost let the cat out of the bag right at the end noting how they got out run on the big open spaces of the g in the second half. Or alternatively, the lions, who many said were the best team behind the pies, are pretenders. Beaten by a team we flogged by nearly 10 goals.

Good points, well made. They def have a, deserved, psychological edge with their record in final quarters. And part of that is everyone - fans, media and opposition teams - all think they'll run over teams in the last quarter. We had a similar psychological edge in the first half of last season in terms of opposition teams struggle to penetrate our incredible defence. But once teams started opening us up with fast ball movement, thst aura disappeared. Same thing will happen to the pies one they inevitably lose a couple of close one. But don't get me wrong, I think the pies are a really, really good team. I also think we are too.

Oh please, what a load of rot. The game is two days away and you're already putting caveats on a dees' win. We win by being brillant defensively, but too defensive for your liking and so there is still 'a clear gap in the capabilities of the sides'. Sheesh.

I'll let you do the research.

I don't disagree with that.

On the first point, i personally think that is myth, one goody is happy to persist. Sure he doesn't throw the magnets around like say Scott likes to, but he has been very tactically innovative from the get go. And this year he has been experimenting with all sorts of innovations and changes to our model.

Mine too. Absolutely slammed West Coast to win and shuey for the Norm Smith. The pies lose yet another grand final in heart breaking circumstances. And I make a motza. Gold.

So, if we win, do you still think it still could be argued there is 'a clear gap in the capabilities of the sides'? Or will you still claim there is a 'a clear gap in the capabilities of the sides' (which i think is a complete load of cobblers) and add a whole bunch of cavaeats (with de goey in we lose, half their team are sick, sidebottom is key etc etc etc)?

A great side? Maybe it's a semantic thing. They are a very good team. And def a flag contender. But a GREAT side? Not by my defintion of what a great side is. A great side does not have their 2022 finals record. They lost 2 of 3 finals last season for pete's sake - their first finals appearance in years. They didn't even make the grand final, let alone win it. We won the flag in 2021, having completely dominated the finals series, playing some of the most dominant finals footy ever. I don't recall many posters or pundits calling us a great team after winning our first 10 games straight in 2022. In fact, papering over cracks was a more common phrase used on here. But the pies, coming of a very disappointing 2022 finals series, and on the back of being 11-1, aided by the gift of 7 games at the G, are a GREAT team? Give me a spell. Fair dinkum, they are very good, I'm not arguing with that, but how about we wait till they actually achieve something before collectively anointing them as some juggernaut, generational team. The most over rated team I can ever remember.

Good analysis. Agree with your keys to winning. Your observation about fine tuning the mid zone press are really interesting. I hadn't really considered the distinction between our normal defensive structure and our set up in the blues game. But you are right, they had a real focus on denying inside 50s and setting a grid up higher, whereas in the first half of 2022 they were set deeper and happy enough to let teams get the inside 50 and back themselves in to win it. But the speed the pies have introduced challenges that as we can't set and/or zone off as well. And teams, like Port and freo have started engineering free players on the 50 metre arcs on the flank to exploit our defensive structure (and limit levers influence as as an interceptor). So, moving that zone up the ground makes sense. Particularly against the pies because they are number one for fewest oppo inside 50s, meaning their back line is set high and play alot of their footy between the arcs. I take your point about the blues kicking skills, they were appalling. But i heard, i think the blues footy boss (cant remember his name) on the radio on my way to the game and he said they were going to play fast footy. So they came into the game with an attacking mind set and to take us on. Pies like And ran head on to a team fully focused on stopping them get any flow, space or time. But not from pressure (which was our season low by some margin), from structure. And they couldn’t deal with it. Perfect practice for the pies game. I truly believe the pies model had a significant vulnerability - it doesn’t work if they can't hit their targets on transition. Not so much because if they turn it over that scoring chain is broken. That happens on all turnovers. And turnovers are unavoidable. But because when they turn it over their defenders, wingers and mids, who have all pressed up and tracked the ball to create an outnumber and handball (and kick) receive option, have to turn and as one all get back. To be fair, they are brilliant at doing so. And are super fit. But there must be a point where that starts to take a toll. And we are the team to get them to that point. I keep coming back to their two highest pressure games they have played since the start of the 2022 final series - the cats and swans finals. They lost them both. In large part because turnovers reallthurt them late in both games ans particularly against the cats struggled to get back in defence late in the game, meaning open space inside 50 and easy goals. People love to play the who have Melbourne beaten game. Well who have the pies beaten? Of the serious contenders, they are 2-1, having beaten Port and the cats (who I think are contenders, but many dont) and losing to the lions. Granted we havent beaten a serious contender, though we've not played the cats yet, meaning we are 0-2. But if you think Port is a contender (which I now do) a four point loss on their home deck, in the wet and missing chances, suddenly looks a pretty good performance (as will the freo loss as the season progresses - they are a good team). If we beat the pies, which I predict we will, they will be 2-2 against the serious contenders and we will be 2-1. That said, depending on the nature of the loss, it won't dint my confidence about our chances in September if we lose. It's all about September. For the pies too. And so goody may well choose to keep his tactical power dry in tgis game so as not to show his cards for tactics he might use in September (eg strategies to limit daicos' influence).

Great post. Those sprint numbers are crazy for the pies. As you say it needs to because they push up so high, and if they turn it over, have to sprint back to get ahead of the ball. It that scenario we have a player back, but the pies often have noone deep. But whilst the sprint numbers are a great indicator for their running power, it doesn't nessesarily mean they are fitter (not suggesting you are saying that). Don't get me wrong, they are clearly very fit and have better running power than us. But we have more power and grunt. And when on, use it powerfully.

They have played the 2 worst teams in their last two games - and the blues before thst. Good on em for their three scrappy wins. They have a better record. But they are not in MUCH better form than us atm. If they were they would be much shorter odds than their current quote of 1.74.

They've won more games than us. But i'm sorry jaded, suggesting they are I'm much better form than us is not being realistic. It may be your opinion, but objectively it is simply not true. One assumes you wouldn’t have said that after we demolished the hawks. So by much better form, I assuming you mean the last three games. Have you watched their last 3 games? They were scrappy against the blues, lucky to win and the 3 goal margin flattered them with the blues kicking a wasteful 7.15. They were scrappy against the roos,who put six goals past them in the last quarter to go down by 35 points. And as I noted above, they were very average against the Eagles who were two down on the bench, and still outscored them in third and won cp and the inside 50 count.

Agree.

But surely that's a given. In fact I'd argue that will be their challenge, not ours Bring it.

With only two rotations for almost all the second half the Eagles had more inside 50s than the Pies. And got outscored in the third. Now, i'm guessing the Pies flat performance is related to fatigue and expect them to running over the ground against us, but still that game was hardly an example of free-flowing football or rampant Pies team. They also lost contested possessions, which doesn't augur well coming up against one of the best CP teams in the AFL. By way of comparison, we had 29 more contested possessions than the blues, who are number one in the AFL for CP.

On his five points, hard to argue with them, but also agree they are a bit captain obvious. The frontal pressure is absolutely key, particularly in terms of denying their elite kicks time and space. When we are on, i think we are the best in the AFL at pressing up and timing that press. It is real team skill because if say Hunter presses up and doesn't quite get there, a teammate has to press up from behind to cover the player being kicked to and/or stop the tic tac. Pressing up hard and getting in their grill is a key strategy for how we look to limit the impact of players like Daniel and Saad - deny them time and space so they can't play that quarter back role and set up transition and scoring chains. Funnily enough, I was reflecting that i didn't highlight this on the podcast because this is what we will look to do against Dacos and Pendles. For mine though, they key for us to win is pressure. One, because obviously it makes their risky kicks harder to hit Two, we are the turnover kings and it is our most important scoring source. Pressure is key to creating turnovers. But as important is needing to slow them down on transition. Even if we only slow them down a little bit, our defence can get set up behind the ball. And pressure is how to slow them down. If we can't slow them down on transition, they will separate May and Lever and create one on ones up forward which we will struggle to zone off and cover. The other related strategy is blocking up the corridor and daring them to take it on. Again, i think we are the best in the AFL at doing this. If they miss a couple of those kicks early and we punish them on turnover, it will test their nerve as the game goes on.

I really like Sando's analysis. I reckon he hasn't quite got the dees right this season, but he generally makes his case well and has sound arguments so i def consider them and respect his views. One example of not getting it right about us is his insistence that the Pies are 'by far' the fittest team in the AFL - a point i have heard him make a number of times. Maybe he has access to the GPS numbers because otherwise i'm not sure how he has reached that conclusion. I wonder whether he is conflating last year's relative fitness levels, where we def dropped off in the back half of the season. But, by all accounts we had a brilliant preseason in terms of building our fitness foundation as evidenced by running all over the top of the Dogs and then Swans. And he has cited their last quarters as one piece of evidence of the Pies being the fittest side, but we have only lost 2 of 12 last quarters and are number one in the AFL for red time goals.