Rogue

Not at all a surprise, given the articles published during the second half of the season about his plight .

What makes you say that? I don't think he's the kind of player we need at all. I agree with the earlier comments re: his lack of polish meaning he doesn't fit the bill.

If Lever, Hogan and Tyson were fit*, I reckon our bottom six would be something like this: Frost OMac Hannan Neal-Bullen Tyson Vandenberg If only..! *I've squeezed out JKH, Weid and Spargo. I think this is more important than the deck chairs. If our big guns like Gawn, Oliver, Brayshaw and TMac don't fire, then I don't think fringe players like JKH, Tyson, Weid and Spargo get us over the line on grand final day.

If Weid can start clunking most of the marks he gets his hands to, watch out! He's doing a great job for us at the moment, and he should be even better next year.

Not a fan.

Where'd you get your figure from? I have it on good authority - CEO/Prez - that our break-even at the 'G is actually a bit under 20K, but that was from a few years ago now and might be out-dated.

It's frustrating that on one hand we put so much time, effort and resources - financial and otherwise - into winning, and on the other we then sell home games.

In my view this is an entirely irrelevant question, and asking it indicates you've either missed - or chosen to ignore - the substance of my post. I'll play along, though; I don't know, but I assume that it's Richmond station. Here's a question for you: Given that the proposed Yarra Park training oval is a shorter distance from Richmond station than almost all of the MCG seating, you must believe that it is necessary to move our home games to a ground that is more accessible for people from the SE suburbs, right?

Surely I'm not the only one reading your posts and wondering what you're banging on about. People with little interest in the footy have little interest in travelling into the city from Cranbourne for a training session, regardless of whether that training ground is around Gosch's Paddock or Jolimont station. Even people with a high level of interest in the footy generally have little interest - or little extra spare time to dedicate to AFL stuff - in attending training! In my opinion this whole discussion about whether an extra hundred metres or three of walking to get to training is of importance is a complete red herring. As bb (?) pointed out, if you're willing to go to the 'G to watch Melbourne play AFL matches - and that's the first step for people with little interest in the footy! - then you're going to face the same logistical issues in getting to our proposed training ground. Walking to the Jolimont training oval would be equivalent to walking to the Ponsford stand.

Just like Malthouse to Carlton. EDIT: Monoccular beat me to it!

Which comment do you disagree with? Here are my assertions, numbered for easy reference: 1. Very slow. 2. Goes to ground too easily. 3. Is prone to absolutely horrible turnovers. 4. Is prone to giving away unnecessary frees/50m penalties. 5. Is able to hit up targets nicely. 6. Apparently gives good leadership.  Genuinely interested.

Lewis is Lewis. Very slow, goes to ground too easily, is prone to absolutely horrible turnovers and giving away unnecessary frees/50m penalties. Also able to hit up targets nicely and apparently gives good leadership. Can't imagine he's playing much senior footy in 2019.

I haven't posted much for a season or two, but I reckon you're still rolling out that same line. Hopefully you're saying that the season after our next flag! At the risk of repeating myself, it's worth noting that every grand final there are people who literally cannot get a ticket, despite being willing and able to buy one. That's what the guarantee covers. Fwiw I have not purchased one over the last decade, and $300 seems pretty steep to me.

What we did 10 years ago, or half a century ago, isn't very relevant. Whether it's a good bet or not comes down to how likely you are to get a grand final ticket if you don't have the guarantee, and how much you care if you miss out. People are throwing around the $1000/$1200 amounts like there's an easy way of nabbing a grand final ticket, but the sad truth is there are many supporters who'd happily pay that in their grand final seasons but miss out entirely. What's it worth to you to be at our next flag?

Isn't that a core benefit of a membership?

I really don't understand how you've come to the conclusion this sample shoots myself in the foot. We must be looking at a different sample, have a different understanding of probability/averages or have wildly differing opinions on what a gun is! [It's also worth noting that an assessment of the picks doesn't factor in the later draft picks that Adelaide gave to us - we also get Pick 35 and swap a fourth round pick for a third round pick - and has a conservative estimate of our 2018 ladder position]. Let's say we ignore the 2016 draftees, as per your suggestion - that leaves us with 18 players. Daniher was touted as a top two pick and only went to Pick 10 because of the father-son rule; since he's not representative of what you get at that pick. Since we don't have a top-two father-son prospect in the next two years let's look at Vlastuin, who went at Pick 9, instead. Of the 18, I'm calling seven a clear bust - six are now out of the system; Johnston, Lucas, Cook, Jaksch, Gorringe and Sumner. The seventh is Freeman, whose trade netted his original club a paltry upgrade from Pick 68 to Pick 63. (Two seasons later and he still hasn't debuted). [This is almost half of the sample!] Melksham and Docherty were both traded for second round picks - Picks 25 and 33 respectively - before they hit their peak age. Adelaide received Pick 20 in compensation for Davis bailing (who, fwiw, has been a good but not great player at GWS). [We've now covered more than half of the sample! Ie. This is what you'll get 'on average'.] Another three played a combined total of 10 AFL games this season. Lennon (two games) and Ellis (six games) couldn't get out of Richmond's VFL side, while McKay played two games - but he was only drafted in 2015 (I would have excluded the class of '15 as well because I reckon they're too young to make a call on). [NB: So far we've already covered 13 players - 72% of the group - and it's either out of the system, gone for Pick 20+ or not best 22, with apologies to McKay] Vlastuin looks like he'll be a good AFL player, but I'm not convinced he's going to be a gun (are you?). Cockatoo is exciting but hasn't been able to play more than half the season in the seniors since his debut year, when the Cats were able to use him as the sub. He's also been significantly injured during matches at least six times, which is about 20% of his games! Curnow played most games this year but I haven't seen enough to confidently rate him - is he one you're saying is going to be a gun? However, there are two clear standouts; Dangerfield was a gun at Adelaide and left them with Picks 9 and 28 (plus a swap of Pick 50 for Gore, who was taken 55). Rioli has been a star for the Hawks, who drafted him, so that's also a great get. PS. If I had time I would look at a bunch of other guys picked before and after Picks 10/12, but I simply don't. I think this group is representative enough, though, but I'd encourage you to if you think the sample is still too small

21 combinations out of how many? (Based on what you've said, we should be happy with the Lever deal, right?).

I'd happily spend all day on this, but I don't have the time. Will you do the leg work for me? A bigger sample would prove my point nicely! In the meantime, here's this - a list of the pick 10 and 12 selections over the same time period. Of course, it's 'skewed' and there are 'outliers'. Pick 12 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Hawthorn Cyril Rioli 185 273 44 //All-Australian x5 2008 Sydney Lewis Johnston 10 (2) 16 2 - career over after four seasons at two clubs 2009 Carlton Kane Lucas 42 15 1 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs 2010 Melbourne Lucas Cook 0 0 0 - career over after two seasons 2011 Brisbane Sam Docherty 92 (13) 14 6 //All-Australian x1 2012 GWS Kristian Jaksch 14 (7) 3 0 - moved on from second club 2013 Richmond Ben Lennon 21 10 0 - two games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2014 Richmond Corey Ellis 23 7 1 - six games in 2017 (not in premiership team) 2015 Carlton Charlie Curnow 27 25 0 - 21 games in 2017 2016 North Melbourne Jy Simpkin 13 9 0 - 13 games in 2017 Pick 10 from 2007: Year Drafting club Name Games (games at later clubs) Goals Brownlow votes 2007 Adelaide Patrick Dangerfield 202 (154) 232 165 //All-Australian x5 2008 Adelaide Phil Davis 121 (18) 6 1 2009 Essendon Jake Melksham 133 (114) 78 3 - traded for pick 25 2010 Gold Coast Daniel Gorringe 26 (22) 11 0 - career over after seven seasons at two clubs 2011 GWS Liam Sumner 32 (12) 19 0 - career over after six seasons at two clubs 2012 Essendon Joe Daniher 93 173 19 - father-son pick - Nick Vlastuin was at pick 10; Troy Menzel at pick 11 //All-Australian x1 2013 Collingwood Nathan Freeman 0 0 0 - yet to make debut 2014 Geelong Nakia Cockatoo 32 25 0 - 11 games in 2017 2015 Carlton Harry McKay 2 3 0 - 2 games in 2017 2016 Gold Coast Jack Bowes 11 2 0 - 11 games in 2017 How many pairs of a pick 10 and 12 would you take instead of Lever? It looks like half of them won't even be AFL players when they should be hitting their physical peak. The more I look into it, the more confident I am about my statement that draft picks are overrated.

Since when were picks 10 and 13ish guaranteed good players? Perhaps you missed my post listing our top 20 picks since 2007.

Draft picks are overrated. To put this trade in perspective, here are our top 20 picks since 2007: Scully - pick 1 Watts - pick 1 Petracca - pick 2 Hogan - pick 2 Trengove - pick 2 Brayshaw - pick 3 Oliver - pick 4 Toumpas - pick 4 Morton - pick 4 Weideman - pick 9 Salem - pick 9 Gysberts - pick 11 Cook - pick 12 Grimes - pick 14 Blease - pick 17 Tapscott - pick 18 Strauss - pick 19 Would people be crying that we'd 'paid overs' and were 'amateurs' if we'd packaged up Weid and Grimes*, or Salem and Cook*, to get Lever, pick 35 and upgrade pick 64 to pick 50? *Oh wait, we couldn't offer those trades because these blokes are already out of the system. PS. Honourable mention to Marric at pick 21.

Anyone interested in the upcoming Champions Trophy? AUSTRALIA SQUAD: David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steve Smith (c), Travis Head, Chris Lynn, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Moises Henriques, Matthew Wade, John Hastings, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Adam Zampa. A potentially lethal pace battery, but I don't know that they'll all play together in the Champions Trophy. Faulkner, Bailey and Khawaja are notable outs. I was surprised to see Hastings back and Henriques make the cut. Full squads here (India TBA Monday): http://www.cricket.com.au/news/champions-trophy-full-squads-2017-fixtures-australia-england-india-pakistan/2017-04-26 I'm a bit late to the party, but I agree with this.

I think that's crazy talk - there'd be 15+ guys I'd reel off before Strech even entered the conversation. He's showed some good signs though and I'm interested to see where he's at in two years time. I think the competition for spots in our best team will be fierce.

I liked the format, and was glad to hear that it will be retained for the next T20. In other news, the top associate team will get a chance to play four first-class matches - two at home and two away - versus the bottom Test team, beginning 2018.

Nice to see Sanga and Jayawardene get a fairytale finish to their T20 career with a win in the final. Great work by the Aussie women too.

I just read the article and watched the interview excerpts at the link Macca provided: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/players-will-look-at-jonathan-trott-and-think-he-did-a-runner-20140317-hvjis.html?skin=text-only To me it certainly sounds like more than being out of form - the way he was trying to avoid his teammates, the severe anxiety about even going to the ground and the comment that the GP would, in normal circumstances, have signed him off for three weeks leave from his job all point to more than being out of form.