Rogue

Love that Bernie has hit the 100 with us. He's tapering off now, but was a great get for us and I've really enjoyed seeing him in the red and blue.

I'm pretty happy we're taking advantage of the Cat B option. If athletes from overseas, like Cox and the Irish, can make it, then someone who's grown up playing footy can make it. No idea who this kid is, though.

I think you misunderstood/I didn't make my point clear. I think Bugg is at least four deep in the queue of players already outside the best 22 for any role he would play. (Even further back than I'd initially estimated, when I sat down and thought about it). For example, if we had an injury to a flanker/small forward then outside my best 22 I would take Spargo, AVB, Kent, Stretch and JKH before Bugg even got a look-in. (I'd be playing Hannan, but if he isn't in the team then one of the aforementioned five are). So Bugg is more like six deep in this lot. If we needed a mid from outside the best 22 I would look at Tyson and Stretch, and bringing in guys like Spargo, Kent, Vince and Hunt and shuffling other players around, before considering Bugg. He's way back in the pack. A guy like Pedo has been close to the next cab off the rank if we have a ruck or tall forward vacancy, and Tim Smith is thereabouts for a forward role - they've got 1-2 players ahead of them, not 5+. (On that, now that Pedo is getting older and could be three deep in the queue for a tall forward role, I reckon his time is numbered. Might get saved by our think ruck stocks, though - depends what the Club thinks about the prospect of our young rucks or Weid/Tom/Tim holding down the ruck if Gawn was missing).

Mitch Clark was recruited in 2011, and Lumumba in 2014. That is a lifetime ago in terms of how much change there's been at this footy Club recently. It's important to emphasise that we used pick 65 to pick up Balic, and we nabbed McKenna and pick 51 for 57 and 59! At those picks, you're always taking a punt. It could be because of queries over a player's mental suitability, injury prospects, physical capabilities, footy nous or whatever. Regardless, it's all speculative and I have no problem with either decision. Hopefully we get lucky with the next late pick.

Yeah, this is probably underrated in footy (and all sports, professional and at lower levels). Many players talk about how they only started playing good footy once they weren't worried about getting dropped every week - talk about a vicious cycle. That said, there are plenty of AFL players with flawed techniques that even I, a far-off amateur observer, can pick up on.

Franklin turned 25 in January 2012. The season started well after he turned 25; when it finished, he was closer to 26. It's hard for me to agree that he was under 25 when playing footy from March-September 2012. If that's the case, then you can discount almost half the seasons Dane Swan played, which I reckon would mean that example isn't significant Weighting the seasons by number of shots on goal doesn't shine much light on the analysis. If I'm trying to work out whether I was better off the tee before and after various swing and grip changes, I'm not interested in weighting one period over another just because I was hitting more balls (unless I'm interested in accounting for the impact of frequency of playing etc). Instead, I just want to know whether in period x, y and z I was better than period a, b and c, and so on. Anyway, if you're discounting two of Buddy's most accurate seasons because kicking 21 and 31 goals is not enough, and lumping a poor season into the 'under 25' group even though he turned 25 months before the season started, I'm not sure either of will sway the other on the question of Franklin. Even if I discount a couple of Buddy's best seasons, pretend he was under 25 when he had one of his worst seasons, agree that the difference in the groups is significant rather than just minor, and concede you've named three examples, I reckon my point still stands. Not many guys in the AFL significantly improve their kicking after they hit 25 - if they did, I'm sure we'd all have been able to reel off a bunch of names. If you still disagree with this, then I don't think there's much more I can do to change your mind (or vice versa), so I'll probably leave it at that. I can't speak for everyone but I certainly don't hate him - I just don't rate him. He's four deep in the queue for a small-mid forward role, and about the same for a midfield role. I agree that he seems on the nose at the Dees and maybe he could get a run in another team, but can't imagine him being more than a bit-part player at any Club.

I agree with you, but like you I think he's still been a long way off his best so it's not saying a lot - particular when it comes to defensive pressure. Certainly showed some touch and goal sense that no other small-mid in our side has, though. A really special player when on song, I think we need him up and about.

Haha, love your work.

I get where you're coming from, but I reckon there are some unique pressures involved with working - yes, it's a job - as an elite athlete and that not everyone can hack it. It's a job, and one you're doing 24/7 until you're thrown on the scrapheap or retire - pretty different to working a low-responsibility 9-5 gig. I understand there are obviously still pressures that come with 'typical' jobs, and especially if you're struggling to make ends meet, but as Jaded pointed out he's just 21. Easy to forget how young a lot of footballers are. A shame for Balic that it didn't work out, but he gave it a second crack and can now move on with his life. If he's been struggling with the decision for a while - and I imagine he has - then hopefully this is a weight off his shoulders. I'm sure a few of the armchair supporters who reckon they'd sell a kidney to play AFL would be surprised to find it's not as enjoyable as they expected. As for the Club, we took a punt with pick 65 and I'm comfortable with that. It doesn't always work out, so now we move on to the next prospect. Might help one of the guys who are on our list and borderline; otherwise a new recruit will get his chance.

I reckon that if a guy is not in the best 22, is behind about four other guys for any particular spot on the ground, and is 25 years old, he must be pretty close to getting slapped with the 'list clogger' tag.

Sure they can - I agree. (In fact, I can't understand how more guys don't improve their skills as they spend more years in the AFL system!). What I'm saying is that not many do make significant improvements. I didn't look at the stats, but Swan is one who I think significantly improved his kicking after being in the system a bit and Thomas sounds plausible too. However, I reckon you're dead wrong re: Franklin. Strangely, you excluded Buddy's first two seasons, when he played 20 games (21 goals) and 14 games (31 goals)! Why was that? The sample definitely isn't too small. Given they were two of his better seasons, Choice would call you shonky, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt I understand we're on a tangent, but here's a graph of Franklin's season percentages*. As you can see, Franklin's most accurate year was under 25. Two of Franklin's best four seasons were under 25. So were three of his top six and four of his top eight years. Six of his top 10 most accurate years were under 25! Under 25 he went at 60.95%, and over 25 he's at 58.38% (58.67% incl. 2018), albeit with less variance season to season. Career total to date is 59.81%, so I'd say it's basically a wash - but U25 is a little ahead. Regardless, Franklin's accuracy definitely hasn't significantly improved post-25! *This year doesn't feature; it currently ranks 7th out of 14 seasons.

Name 10 players who significantly improved their kicking after they hit 25. I'll wait They don't even need to be current players. Choose from anyone who's played in the last 10 years. ...or even the past 20 years, although I reckon that if you're going back very far then I think you've proven my point. NB: Guys like Boyd, who said they found it easier to effectively dispose of the footy when they moved to a position where they were under less pressure - ie. from mid to HBF - don't count.

Yeah, that drop is shattering for the Bulldogs. I know they invested a lot of resources - financial and otherwise - into membership marketing post-2016, in an attempt to capitalise on the flag. I wouldn't be surprised if their numbers dropped again next year. RE: Carlton and Saints, have a look at what happens to the figures in 2019.

Bugg's probably been kicking a footy for 15+ years, so I'm not sure the analogy quite works. I do think professional players should be able to improve things like goal kicking far more easily than they do. However, the truth of the matter is that not many 25 year AFL footballers dramatically improve their basic skills.

Great analogy!

Hannan in for Melksham. Providing Hannan was fit, I'd also consider dropping Spargo for Kent or AVB. If Hannan's not fit, then whoever's playing better footy out of Kent and AVB replaces Melksham.

The biggest decline is actually in the tackle stat; 3.6 to 2.4 I'd like to think it's because he's getting so many hitouts to advantage that there's no one for him to tackle. Great player. Hope to seeing him fit and firing for the Dees for another five years, by which time he'd be around the 200 career games mark.

There are no guarantees in sport. However, the Suns are on four wins and a dismal 64%, we belted them by 69 points last time, and they have at least 12 of their squad unavailable, including their two captains... If this game isn't a 'shoe-in', then no games are.

Don't agree with everything, but like the post. I reckon Garlett offers more than Spargo at the moment. Even though he was far from his best against Adelaide, Garlett finally found some touch. He's just got far better goal sense and forward smarts than any of our forwards, and think if we can get him up and about, he could make a difference.

I've never seen those blokes play in teams as bad as Jones has. They're also better players than Jones is, but I don't even think you need to be the best player at your Club to be the best Captain.

In Lever, out Smith. In Viney, out Spargo. In Hibberd, out JKH (with Fritsch playing further up the ground). I rate Hannan more than most on Demonland, and reckon if his body is right he can be a handy goal-kicker, so I'd be keen to bring him in. I'm not ready to pull the trigger on AVB and feel that absence has made the heart grow fonder as far as the popular perception. (That, and the fact he was initially reported to have 17 tackles, and then every other outlet said he had 10). I don't rate JKH at all, but he did do some good things in the second half v Adelaide and if the Club thinks he may be a player, now's probably the time to stick fat and see if what he needed to make it was some confidence he can impact at AFL level. Spargo was fairly ineffective and right at the minute I don't rate him in our best 22, with the caveat that he's young.

That is crazy talk. I would have thought missing out on finals by the slimmest of margins last year would have taught us that percentage can be critical, and teams like Hawthorn and Geelong could rapidly make ground if we only stagger across the line and then have a bad loss or two. If we're up by five goals at quarter time we should be aiming to replicate that in each of the remaining quarters - a 20 goal win, thanks. That said, I'm not taking the win as a given - recent rounds have shown us that the bottoms teams are causing upsets every now and then, and I don't want it to be against us.

Casey has a bye, so I'm guessing that if he doesn't play AFL he doesn't play at all.

This. Also, I'm sure the popular opinion in some other recent thread was that we had too many inexperienced coaches around Goodwin.