Rogue

If we'd defeated St Kilda we would be a lock for the top eight ATM (unless the Cats made a gain of 13+% on us in the last two weeks).

Interesting. I reckon I'm normally on the same page as you but JKH made me want to vomit.

Exactly what I was thinking.

Seriously? He squibbed it at least three times! Two of the incidents were particularly galling, and I'd be happy to never see him play for Melbourne again. And then there's the fact he makes poor decisions, and even when he makes decent decisions, he generally can't execute. Doesn't go when it's his turn, and plays like he doesn't believe he belongs. Anyway... Hunt's injured, but wasn't playing well anyway. Hibberd into the side, please. Spargo's game was a bit of a horror show, but it was just an exaggerated example of his weaknesses - can't hold tackles and doesn't have goal nous. Also isn't quick, and isn't a marking option either (no surprise, given he's tiny). Melksham into the team, thanks. I'd also drop JKH. I'd play Hannan if his knee has actually improved. Otherwise, I rate Kent over JKH. EDIT: Pedo is a funny one, because I'm not sure why we have him in addition to playing Frost and OMac as KPDs. I'm not sold on AVB, but he took his chances and there's a limit to how many changes you can make while expecting a win.

jshc, I reckon it's a bit ironic to say that you can't mentally handle watching the team lose without taking out your frustration on your close family members, and then criticise the players for their mental weakness. Anyway, I think having realistic expectations probably help, and most teams don't go from dismal to dominant without a period where they're middle-of-the-road. What were you actually expecting from this year? Two games to go and we're 7th on 131%, despite injuries to key players (injuries we never could have coped with in past years). I'm sure this point will get shouted down in amongst the 'the sky is falling' crowd, but I think we're probably tracking in about the right spot this year. IMO, we're clearly on an upward trajectory under Roos/Goodwin. We're now at a stage where we can not only defeat but bully poor teams 9/10 times (just the St Kilda slip-up), and we're thereabouts with most of the better sides in the comp (four losses under 10 points, vs Cats x2, Port and Sydney). It's clear we've improved, because now the 'the sky is falling' posts come out after we lose a game by less than two goals versus a likely finalist and it's wrist-slashing time. These games used to be greeted with optimism, because only a few short years ago we were so pitiful this was about as close to a win as we'd get. The next step is to start winning some of the close ones, and minimising the damage when we have a dirty day (Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn).

Way too many permutations to have a decent idea IMO - it's been all over the place the last few weeks, although - unfortunately - none of the games went our way last night.

Jesus. To be fair, just one on the bench and both Dixon and Ryder out of action.

Dream scenario for this current game: Port valiantly hang on in this last quarter v WCE, but then succumb to the injuries that write-off their season. Unlikely, with WCE all over them with almost 26 mins gone in the last, now just two points down and 8 of the last 10 scores to WCE.

Sadly Chook's dream ladder won't eventuate, but I think a Dees win on Sunday and a WB upset versus the Roos would make us a lock for finals. We'd be two games and ~15% above the teams outside the top eight, with just two games to go. Unlikely to occur, but it'll give me some interested in the early game at Etihad.

Yeah, looks like it's likely to be pretty wet - potentially stormy. I'm not sure that helps us.

I think that'd mean Hawthorn first up at the 'G, a win and into the prelim v WCE at the 'G, and then onto the flag. I like it!

Yeah, it's great - makes the stats very accessible.

Forgive me if I don't take that as gospel, because we're full of it when it comes to injuries - or, to put it more charitably, we're just very bad at predicting when players will be back. Eg. Melksham was 50/50 as to whether he'd miss a week, and suddenly he's out for three, Hibberd turned out worse than first predicted, the ever-expanding time Viney will be out, Hannan under a cloud with a 'jarred knee' and suddenly gone for a few weeks, etc. To be fair, most Clubs are, but it's still annoying. Really tough to predict selection this week. If Gawn is gone then Pedo comes in to play ruck and drop back into the hole. I think Fritsch might play back, replacing Smith, with either Kent or Hannan joining our mid/forward group. I doubt we want to make too many changes but I don't rate JKH and would be happy to see him replaced, but I'll be surprised if it happens. I'm not sure Hunt's ready yet, but I'd like to see him back in the team if he can find some form.

We can't keep them because we don't have them - they're Casey players and anyone can draft them. If we want them, we need to draft them before someone else does; hence Deespicable's suggestion we rookie list them next year.

If we defeat Sydney then Geelong will rise above them with a win, and disbelievers will still claim that we haven't beaten anyone in the top eight!

I think it was a massive mistake to split the AFLW from the pre-season comp. Far better to have two games in one day, and can't see that it was advantageous to split the comps.

For what it's worth, that's not actually what the numbers mean - it's nothing to do with the number of people tipping each team. The percentage figures indicate the probability of a win, based on an aggregate of a bunch of models Squiggle collates. (The red line is the aggregate; the black lines indicate individual models). Thus, the 73% means that the model(s) estimate a 73% probability of us defeating Sydney. In other words, if we played 100 times, the likelihood is that we'd win 73 of them.

Jesus, that's ridiculous. Yep, I agree. The comp was probably already too short, with just one week of finals, so I think this is pretty self-evident. As an aside, I think the AFL is mad to expand the competition at this stage - the talent pool isn't deep enough to provide quality footballers for the existing teams, let alone a bunch of new teams. With the uptake of girls playing footy that'll turn around relatively quickly, but the AFLW has still expanded too much, too rapidly.

I actually think his form dropped off last year, prior to Lever joining. Perhaps the persistent rumours got to him

I think Hannan's shown so much more than AVB so far that it's not funny, and I'm confident that Hannan has been playing much of the season under significant duress.

True story. Plus, anyone who sits out there would like a bit more action ?

A shame for Baker but as these things go, not the worst injury we could get. Hopefully it's the last bad one of '18!

Really? After almost two years out of the AFL team I didn't expect him to show why he deserves a place in the team, and IMO he didn't show that he deserved a place in the team. I've got to admit I thought he was pretty average, but that's not to say he can't improve. Given our injuries I think he'll get at least one more game to strut his stuff, and I'll be interested to see how he goes.

Stretch got into the team before JKH, didn't he? Ditto Spargo, Hannan, etc. I'd rate JKH behind almost all of the guys you listed, and Baker is young so I'd rather hang onto him than JKH if I needed to choose between delisting one of the two. I didn't conflate the mid/wing positions so you may want to take that up with DubDee. However, there are plenty of options on our list for guys playing wing that I'd rate ahead of JKH. However, obviously we have had a number of injuries that mean those options are required elsewhere, and JKH is getting a run. Ah right, understand you. Sure, you're right - and that's why he's getting a game. Amazed that anyone thinks he's ticking boxes right now, though. The game versus the Suns was his best so far this season, but it's important to note that they are putrid right now. They're a poor footy side and on top of that, they have a ton of outs which meant they were playing one of the worst teams they could put out on the field. JKHstill has a bunch of flaws which I, like other posters, think will get shown up big time against decent teams. The root cause of his ills may in part be mental - a lack of confidence would explain many of them - but regardless, I'll be shocked if he makes it.

Really? I reckon we have more depth there than anywhere else - assuming Spargo and Jeff are playing, guys outside the 22 would include Hannan, Stretch, vandenberg, Kent, Bugg and Baker...how much more depth do you need?!?