Everything posted by DeeSpencer
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Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever
Rance, but he can play on an opponent and he's a one man wrecking machine at full back preventing teams from scoring. Lever might become that but right now he hasn't shown any ability to play on a key forward opponent and gets to float around half back where there's more room and less at stake. In terms of comparing positions I'd say an intercepting half back isn't as rare and as valuable as a key forward, but I'd also say Lever is about as good as a prospect as you'd find in that position.
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NFL
Arizona (But yuck they aren't that good, but the Colts might be terrible) New England Dallas
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Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever
Think we might have to give up more than pick 10 but I don't want it to be much more. I'd try to keep next years first off the table, but at the same time I wouldn't want to give up 2nd round picks either so it's a tricky one. We have to give Jason Taylor some ammunition in the draft. I'd probably be willing to add 2018's first round pick for Adelaide's pick this year or next year but that would be a gamble. A couple of second round pick shuffles might be the safer bet. Or maybe we give the Saints something small to move pick 10 to 7 or 8 and then that satisfies the Crows. The big question might be what other business do we have in trade week and if the answer is nothing major then we can bit very patient. The last few years Mahoney has always stressed the importance of locking in deals early to allow some more movement with other players but I'm hoping we don't trade anyone out and I don't think we'll be trading anyone major in if we get Lever.
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Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever
Maybe, but not really. Adelaide could've matched the contract so really they had just as much leverage then as they do now.
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NFL
Yeah I'd like to see only the players be able to call for a time out in any situation. That way it has to happen before the snap. Either way it was a horrendous attempt at a block by the Chargers player and it cost me my tips. That whole game featured a couple of teams who look pretty decent in some areas but also really sloppy and poorly coached by rookie head coaches. I think Kansas City and Oakland would be looking at that game last night and knowing they have to do take care of some things - Denver's pass D, Chargers edge rushers, keep Rivers in check, pressure Siemian - but overall knowing if they play smart they'll have a big advantage.
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NFL
Ahh the Bears go for a big comeback against the team that should've won the superbowl last year and then somehow drop 2 passes and can't get in with 4 goes from the 6. Lost Kevin White as well so now undeniably the worst WR group in the league. Hard to work out what is real and what is just a small sample size in week 1. So far I'm willing to believe in: - Cleveland being a really plucky team and far tougher to beat - Jacksonville's defense and running game - The Rams defense - The Colts are screwed with Luck Wait and see time with a lot of other teams deserving or needing a 2nd viewing to see what's real.
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NFL
I'd add 2 extra wins and give them the division if Zeke doesn't get suspended. The OL is fantastic and any RB would put up yards for them but Zeke adds the passing game component as a back and is so versatile defenses can't get a read on him.
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NFL
Falcons Steelers Chargers
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NFL
Cowboys most likely lose Elliott for 6 weeks which sends their offense back to earth and their defense is ordinary. They aren't better than a 10 win team. Giants defense is legit but their offense can't run the ball or protect Eli, again, they shouldn't win more than 10 games. Eagles have a chance to be very good on both sides of the ball if the additions at corner and WR work out.
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NFL
Ok I'm back in for tipping and thought I'd pick the division champs: AFC: North: Steelers East: Pats South: Texans West: ???? Chiefs WC: Raiders, Bengals NFC: North: Packers East: Eagles South: Falcons West: SeaHawks WC: Giants, Panthers Aside from the usual standouts - Pats in the AFC East, Packers and SeaHawks in the NFC, there's some really competitive divisions. With a bumper crop of QB's coming in to the league the teams without one - in particular the Jets, the Bills might fall by the wayside quickly. Otherwise a lot of teams will have something to offer. I expect the 49ers offense with Hoyer playing for Shanahan before will surprise a lot of people. They won't be Atlanta but they'll score. As a Bears fan I'm hoping the team restores some proper Bears defense and they can if they stay healthy. After that most of the season is just living in hope Trubisky develops in to a franchise QB.
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End of year delistings
Delist: Lumumba, Trengove, Hulett, Kennedy, White (r) - that's the easy ones. Delist: Spencer - not an AFL level player, often injured. Time to cut the cord and find a mature back up. If not, Tom McDonald can back up Garland - similar to Spencer he's isn't up to AFL any more, find a way to pay him out if we can, keep him as a coach. Kent I wouldn't mind trying to fix if there's not a trade deal for him but I wouldn't play him until he's fit enough to play wing, even if that takes all year. Hogan I wouldn't even enter trade negotiations unless he's really unhappy or a team is selling the farm Vince I'd keep on a modest deal but play mostly at Casey or bring in to tag. Frost I'd rather keep but if he's part of the Lever deal and we need the salary cap space then I can handle him going, he hasn't shown enough to lock in on a long term deal if someone else offers him one. Important to find a mature ruck and key defender if the draft/trade/free agency. I can see why we want Jackson Trengove, he can fill both spots. Tim Smith and Keilty are going to be kept as mature age rookies. As is Maynard. So we should add a bit more depth but really we can hand over to Jason Taylor to take a lot of picks on kids even if it's a shallow draft. Maybe 3 picks in the main draft and 3 picks in the rookie draft and go with extra rookies.
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Tom McDonald?
I was right in 2014 and I'm right now. He won't stand up to the pressure of finals intensity (or anything close to it). Might be worth keeping around as forward/ruck to compete or back up Pedda and is probably the 2nd best ruck option on the list if Max gets injured. But he's done as a key defender. He's done as a leader too.
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Josh Kelly
Carlton's the only team of those rumoured (Ess, St Kilda, North) that I'd be interested in if I was Kelly. And surveying the other options in Victoria you've got Geelong (no cash), Richmond (minimal cash if they pay Dusty), the Hawks (no draft picks and still in flux), the Dogs (likely no cash), Coll (well...) and us - still trying to make finals and probably focusing on Lever and developing our young players. So I'd take GWS' offer if it's 2 years at 750-800 and then become a free agent after that, with a better than even money chance of a Premiership and maybe a Brownlow as well. I'd come back to Victoria after 2019 and be surveying the options. I've got no doubt the Dees would be selling that to him - reach free agency whilst our side builds in other areas then come in as the cherry on top.
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Our Failure to Crush Teams
1. We are young and still have quite a few guys each week who haven't reached anything near peak endurance 2. We've played a lot on the road and and Etihad and when we have played at the G we've struggled, especially early in the year. Most teams big wins come at home 3. We've had injuries in several games, especially the ones where we've build leads. Joel Smith round 1. Hunt v Adel. Watts, Jones v the Dogs. Similar to this is the Port game second half came post Darwin when we are just trying to kill the game. 4. The forward line has been chopped and changed regularly with Hogan and Gawn out as well as Hannan and Petracca spending more time in the middle. I'm sure the coaches would like to get the Hogan/T Mc/Watts combination settled in for the next 5 weeks plus Garlett and half forwards all working together. My biggest regret in not having big wins is that the coaches haven't had a lot of chances to do some experimenting and resting of players in game. The counter to that is we've often had such poor starts that Goodwin has made a heap of moves during games so its not like we haven't tried a few things.
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WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - HARLEY BALIC
Squandered what? He's 20 years old, in his second year of footy, dealing with a personal issue that seemingly is best dealt with back in his family home - not unusual for a 20 year old - and has had injuries. After 2 games in the WAFL he broke in to Freo's side. List spots - Spencer, Kennedy, Trengove, Garland, Lumumba, Kent, Hulett, possibly Vince don't worry we've got plenty. No idea if we want him or if he'd mentally or physically get the all clear, but he was going to be a higher pick before a nasty wrist injury, he's got midfield ball winning combined with forward line craft, I'd be very surprised if his career was done and I'd be surprised if we weren't interested if he was free to a good home (which I also doubt would be true).
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The Importance of Jordan Lewis
He's slow, unaccountable and bruise free. I think he has to go to half back and let the play come to him. That's where he's played his best footy this year - v Saints, v GC, v WCE. I've heard reports from players that Lewis' on field talk is valuable and that's going to be of more benefit at half back than any other spot. I'd much rather give Vince a chance on ball in the next month because you know he'll compete at the contest and work hard around the ground. Pretty obvious switch in my mind.
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The Importance of Jordan Lewis
I can live with him being down on pace and even not that great defensive running. We can move him around to hide that. Skills good but not great, good ability to get the ball out space. But if he doesn't stop shirking it soon he needs a run in the 2's. ASAP. Young Oscar McDonald has lovely skills, reads it well enough and could be a player, but he shows occasions where his priority is protecting himself rather than attacking contests. He can't have a leader along side him like Lewis pulling up short steps on leads, not bending down to get the ball, hot potato handballing or punching the ball on instead of taking some contact. The self preservation act has got to go before it spreads throughout the team.
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The Petracca v McCartin debate reprised
The Clarko saying 'If you can't kick you can't play' is pretty true (even if Melbourne ignore it) but more than anything if you can't run you can't play AFL football. Trenners doesn't have the pace to play AFL these days. McCartin looks quick and agile enough for his role but he doesn't have the tank to play AFL. If he develops it and stays injury free he'll be a very good player. If he keeps breaking down and can't ever get fit then he'll be a bust. I'm hoping the kid makes it for his own sake and then we can just enjoy Petracca without silly comparisons. Petracca's tank is also a mile off where it will end up so I'm keen to see him with a few preseasons when he's fit enough to play midfield, half forward and then rest close to goal.
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Dom Tyson
I doubt his form is worse than in 2014, it's just the teams got much better and he walked in to a bad team in 2014 and racked up a lot of disposals. Playing a tired Essendon always helps but I thought he was starting to spread from stoppages faster and his running to get outside ball and clean hands are both positives. I thought his kicking was getting better too until a silly turnover and a missed goal. This will sound really harsh but I think he's just afraid to get caught holding the ball or to open his body up to get crunched so he isn't looking up and picking out targets. That's confidence in his body that isn't there yet. Another interrupted preseason and he's going better than this time last year so I'm hoping he's about to turn the corner. Adding more mids to the rotations and using him on the wing and forward is probably good for his game as well.
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WELCOME TO THE MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - MICHAEL HIBBERD
He's missed more games than he's played so far... Quality footballer when fit. Wasn't fit when he rocked up to the club in November. I hope he gets a clear run at it now for a long time, but my expectations are more that he'll have to be managed at times as well so he's in peak fitness for important times.
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Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever
May went to high school at Melbourne Grammar. That makes him pretty much a dees fan right? He'd be number 1 on the list of who I'd chase but I also think he'll stay at the GC unless they have another disastrous year.
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Clarence Oliver
Message to demon coaches: Please please teach the kid to left hand handball. 100 handballs on his left after every training. Combine that with a couple more preseasons and watch out.
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Clarence Oliver
Improvement and intensity. Oliver has shown both this preseason even if he didn't start in prefect condition.
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Clarence Oliver
His body and fitness looks vastly improved from the start of preseason. Although I did see him on field in the last and he didn't get a stat, so we might have to temper expectations a little on consistency because the fitness base just isn't there. I also still think he needs to work on a left hand handball because his vision and movement is so good it's a shame to see him give inside out handballs. If he can use both sides of his body like Sam Mitchell then watch out.
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Josh Kelly
Nope. We overrate all young players, every team does, but when comparing with each other I don't think Salem's been placed wrong. Billy Stretch is a beauty, he could and probably should play most of the next 100-150 games running a wing, I think he could slot in to most teams in the comp and do a job. Kent has talent and potential to do some really good things but is still an inconsistent prospect for the future given he has to fix up his weaknesses (yet alone his body) and consistently use his great attributes. Salem's prospects are above both and I wouldn't have many ahead of him. He's a really clever ball user and reader of the play. Sure it was dud game for the team but he racked up 27 touches after being out for 15 weeks in round 23. His tackling is really good. He's far tougher and more courageous than he looks. And he has enough pace to chase down or evade players. If he gets fit I'm convinced he'll easily adjust to being a solid contributor to the team and in time if the team improves and as he gets experience he'll be a big moment guy. We're building a very combative physical side to play a finals footy brand but class players stand up in big moments.