DeeSpencer

Define very unlikely? Freo play North in the last round, assuming they both win next week the winner and loser of their match in the last round will finish on 24 and 20 points respectively. With the loser on 20 points and probably a percentage similar to what they are on now given they'd have won 1 game and lost 1 game. Adelaide will move to 20 points with a win next week and we will move to 16 points if we beat the Dogs. Then if we beat the Crows in the final round it will come down to percentage to determine 2nd place. Hypothetically if both teams win 50-30 next week then the Crows will be points for/points against 319/181 and we'll be 282/175 A 41-30 win in the final round we have us 323/205 (157.56%) and the Crows 349/222 (157.21%). Win by a decent margin next week and we'll be looking at only having to beat the Crows by a small margin.

I assume come round one it will be ANB and Spargo both in the side. Spargo is a similar player with better class and potential. If we stick with 2 pressure forwards then Corey Wagner is a very similar player who might have a little stronger hands and nicer field kick, but he's hardly a clean user and probably only gives 80% of the defensive pressure. Garlett seems unlikely. Hannan is a long way off. Joel Smith was underwhelming in terms of pressure as well as skill. Bedford and Chandler remain unseen, it's unlikely they are ready. Would the midfield mix ever get so deep that we're rotating Vanders, Jones, Fritsch through half forward as well as Petracca/Viney/Oliver/Gus/Harmes and they all provide enough forward pressure to do with one less dedicated pressure forward? ANB isn't under immediate threat but he has to show some skills under pressure and not just when we're 10 goals up against bad sides. He's not so great of a defensive force that he can spud it up every time we play a team that puts pressure back on him. He has to make some quicker and better decisions and he has to be stronger at the contest and take some bodies.

The reason for concern was from about 10 minutes in to the 2nd quarter until 3/4 time we couldn't lay a glove on the Tigers. There's areas we should be much stronger in come the real stuff - midfield depth, ruck, almost the whole backline, but there's no excuse to keep turning the ball over out of the backline without even trying to switch or counter, to not even be close to locking the ball up forward and to struggle with simple things like not committing 2 players to tackle one opponent with the ball and leaving a free option. The middle quarters were like the Prelim last year in terms of style. We should've had enough good players in the game to prevent that. The margin should've been closer to 10 goals by 3/4 time.

My point is not that our first choice backline won't be better but that today was a demonstration of the list imbalance. Derm made the point in commentary that to beat the best sides you have to break the lines from half back, you can't just chip it around and hope to counter attack by ball use. His observation was Hunt was the only player like to break the lines and when you look at our first choice backline it's really only Hibberd - who's probably not as quick as he used to be - as the other line breaker. KK is an option but he's been training with the mids because we need that outside run in midfield as well. I really like Jordon but he seems another good size, hopefully good contested player with nice skills but not really someone who's going to beat opponents with speed. We've got 45 list spots and we can't use one of them on a young back flanker who can run the ball?

Had his nose splattered across his face a few weeks ago at Tigers training. I thought Preuss was fine until half time. Not good. But fine. A back up ruck capable of getting some hit outs (had 19 by half time) and not entirely inept around the ground. If he really is 15kg heavier than Max then his fitness won't be ideal but it's also likely he'll struggle big time in 40 degrees in preseason. I never thought he would play round 1 unless he was dominant forward and the Weid was battling and that hasn't been the case. So he'll build at Casey. I wouldn't be worried playing him to rest Max at some stage through the year against a bottom side once he's got match fitness. Second half they clearly wanted a good look at Keilty who now seems ahead of Preuss if one of the key forwards gets injured, I'm glad they gave him a good chance.

Good: - Oliver is still a star - Gus isn't far behind either, although he has to stop with the poor turnover kicks - Petracca at least started like the best player on the ground - Excellent first quarter, nice effort to keep fighting in the last - Petty, Keilty and Jordon showed a bit Bad: Where was the mental strength to hold the game up, switch, change angles etc to keep control of the ball? There simply wasn't enough structure in the 2nd and 3rd to show that the back ups are well drilled and organised, that's a worry. Ugly: 1. The performance of the lower tier maturing players - Oscar, Frost, ANB, J Smith, Maynard, Hunt. Just very little from these guys 2. Where's the run? We weren't a good side out there today but we were hardly a young side either. The Tigers had 2 first year kids and a 2nd year tall, pretty much the same as we did. For the middle 2 quarters in particular the forwards and midfield couldn't get any pressure on the Tigers in transition. That's a big worry. We had 5 of 7 forwards from our finals series last year and plenty of rotations, why are they letting Houli and co run around us all day? Then the backline was probably even worse in that regard. We couldn't stick with their smalls or provide any drive. It wasn't like Hunt, Hore, J Wagner and Jordon were butchering the ball constantly with bad kicks or poor decisions but more like they weren't even getting the ball and moving it on. Salem went back and steadied things up, as Lewis, Hibberd, Jetta, May etc should do as well I still have big concerns about where the half back run is. If Hunt doesn't get back to his best then we're relying on Hibberd and Salem (who can't be released in to the midfield) and maybe hoping KK can also bounce back. The lack of running defender depth makes little sense to me, every team should be well stocked in that position.

A couple of nice tackles and kicked a goal was the positives but some moments of poor ball use and hesitant efforts then attempting to spoil Rance and popped his shoulder out. Hopefully (for him) is fine with rest and rehab and not an op.

The make shift backline being ordinary is hardly a surprise. Nor is a shock that Preuss is going to take a while to build his tank. The bigger shame is that we’re still making system mistakes. - Bombing it forward under little pressure. - 2 defenders on to 1 opponent with no impact. There’s a bunch of maturing limited players who have shown no improvement as well. Oscar, Frost, ANB, Hunt all bad.

Yeah the guys is getting paid big bucks because he has a reputation and I assume a track record of getting results and obviously there is a concern with things like slipping over but that's probably the whole point. It's a controlled exercises it's not just go out there and have a run. Ankle deep snow is probably still a safer surface than the Etihad turf where Lever did his knee.

Would be nice if he could kick them from outside 50, but the most important thing is he knows his range and plays to it. Can still be a very good player at 173cm with a 40m kick, especially if he brings smarts, evasive skills, tackling and other things that little guys are better at. Hoping for a strong 2nd year.

What they need is to install a proper scoreboard like this next to or above the bench for each side. That way you can put up 4 numbers to rotate as well as any in game signals you might need. Instead they've got clunky and horrible handheld signs that are less effective than the ones they use for soccer substitutions.

What are you disagreeing with? I’m not denying plenty of players take drugs, particularly on long breaks and the offseason. My guess is it could almost be as much as 50% of a list who on end of season trips, New Years, at the spring races etc. 5-10 if not more of the 45 on a list probably have never touched drugs, a lot of people and athletes are like that. Some AFL players weigh their food and count every calorie. They aren’t touching drugs 5-10 are probably taking drugs more regularly than once every while and are at risk of harming themselves and almost certainly not performing to their best. A good club either sorts them out or kicks them out.

Gawn, Jetta, Vanders and Hibberd are listed as emergencies on the AFL website teams

That's a stronger team than I expected. Looks like the older guys rested: Lewis, Gawn, Vanders, Jetta, Hibberd I took the liberty to change the positions around for the starting 18, left the bench as named. FB: J Wagner Frost Hunt HB: Hore Oscar Petty C: Fritsch Harmes JKH HF: ANB T Mc J Smith FF: Spargo Weid Garlett Foll: Preuss Brayshaw Oliver Int: Salem Petracca Stretch Maynard Sparrow Jordan C Wagner Keilty The backline without May, Hibberd, Jetta and Lewis seems pretty weak, but there's enough in the midfield and forward line to put in a decent contest.

Yeah this is nice, but why is it happening now and not since Dec 2014? And why the senior coach just with one player and not a dedicated kicking coach with every player? Filmed, broken down, reviewed, repeated. I’m a broken record on this topic but anyway, it’s a good sign they’ve recognized a problem, hopefully they get some improvement.

That Kolo injury sounds nasty. Playing in round 1 at any level seems ambitious. Hannan - not good, but I’m of the belief he’s been inconsistent since he’s joined up and played a lot of games bandaged up. It’s preseason so I’ll take the optimistic view that getting him fully healthy will be good for him.

Keen to see him in a game situation because from what I've seen of him at training he's energetic and has clean skills. That's a nice combination.

To be honest I wouldn't care what they wore to home games, turn up in your footy shorts and jumper, team gear or in a suit. That said, probably just easier to wear the team gear isn't it? Away games you step off the bus in uniform ready to win.

Plough's usually got a bit more depth and quality in his analysis. I don't mind him as a pundit. Lever: Yeah he'll be really good to have back to his best. Of course a good player doing well is important. But as good as Lever is we should be able to cover and injury to a 3rd tall intercepting defender and/or him playing below his best. Hore might be good enough to do it. Hibberd can intercept. Jetta has high intercept numbers for his role. Hunt hopefully bounces back. Salem, Lewis, KK playing back or even Fritsch. I don't see Lever's injury as a particularly huge obstacle, he's a good player coming back, every team has them. Inconsistencies: No thanks, not really buying that. How many games was our effort and skill awful really bad in last year - v Hawks in the wet, v Magpies and some terrible moments in the Swans game towards the end of the year. Then of course the prelim. Otherwise almost every week we turned up and had a go. We struggled for most of the season with some defensive frailties and poor forward line conversion against top 8 sides. Every side has it's weaknesses though. We consistently beat up on bad sides and struggled against the top sides until later in the year when we improved a bit, that's consistency! Inexperienced tall players: Not particularly buying this one either. Up forward, yes Weideman is young and hasn't played much but the Dogs won the flag with Zaine Cordy and Tom Boyd, the Tigers didn't have a second tall forward, the Cats had Tom Hawkins come alive one year. Big Chrisso Dawes was 22 when the Pies won the flag. Down back - Sam Frost is 25 and played 69 AFL games, that's not young nor inexperienced. Oscar is about to turn 23 and has played 62 games. Oscar probably hasn't reached peak physical condition just yet but is far form slight. Isn't a common school of thought that 70 games is a good apprenticeship for most players? Tom Barrass had played 32 games heading in to last years season, played his 51st in the grand final and was aged 22. I can think of 3 better concerns: 1. Managing the work loads and potential exits from the side of Lewis and Jones 2. Run and skill from half back - especially if Salem goes in to the midfield and KK and Hunt don't come on we're in trouble 3. Lack of genuine pressure and crumbing small forward - as effective as ANB and Spargo can be they aren't Rioli's.

Smart decision. I'd rest Gawn, Brayshaw, Petracca, Lewis, Salem, Harmes, Hibberd, Vanders and Jetta. Give Fritsch a run. Probably don't risk Tommy Mc or Oliver though. Or Jones, Melksham, Viney and May. That leaves 16 from the team v Pies: Spargo, Stretch, Frost, Preuss, JKH, Weideman, Oscar, Hunt, ANB, Hore, Sparrow, Garlett, T Smith, Wagner, Wagner, J Smith Fritsch makes 17. Would like to see Maynard, Baker, Petty, Keilty and a few of the young guys to fill out the side.

So what is it? Abstinence or not having to be choir boys. You have to pick one or the other. I'd suggest more players have had their performance impacted by mental health - mostly depression and anxiety - in recent years than drugs and that comes from bottling up the stress of their jobs. Give me a player at 95% body capacity and 100% mental capacity any day over a player who treats their body like a temple but is fighting mental challenges. I'd love for players to go out after a game and have somewhere between 0 and 5 vodka lime sodas, dance, make friends and laugh for a while and call it a night for 40 weeks a year and then live like monks for the other 10 in the lead in to finals but that's not going to happen. Firstly for most people it's not realistic to go 25 weeks straight without at least having some nights when you let your hair down, secondly the alcohol might be worse than the drugs for their bodies anyway! That's not a reason to do drugs but zero tolerance and name and shame could see a lot of guys throwing careers away over something that didn't hurt them or anyone else. They almost had no choice but to do something after the Eagles drama. I think that's what a lot of people are forgetting. Cousins - life ruined. Kerr -jailed, Fletcher - had to be resuscitated. Chick - off the rails. They made a big error publicising so much about the 3 strikes, loop holes and more than anything disclosing data about the number of players testing positive and on 2 strikes. They went out and publicised it like it was something to be proud of when it should be all in the background.

Reads like he wrote that at the end of 2017. Tom McDonald got the better defender 9 times out of 10 last year, that's all you need to know. That said, they are pretty similar in a lot of ways: Both excellent runners who get up the ground and back Tom the better kick for goal but Hoges better than he looks Hogan with deft hands at ground level but Tom follows up well Both not ideal ball users kicking inside 50, Tom can shank his field kicks whilst Hoges chips around his body with a bad action Both lacking a bit of agility and pace to cause forward 50 turnovers, Tom a bit more effort but Hoges a bit more agility Tom a pack mark clunker but Hoges a natural at using his body to bullock The main advantage Tom had the last couple of years is better and more confident leading patterns. For whatever reason particularly at the MCG Hogan really struggled to create space and direct his team mates where to kick it.

Are multiple players taking drugs in the offseason and long weekends - absolutely. Are some players taking drugs more regularly than that - maybe every weekend in the preseason and the night after the game in season - sure. But you're struggling to play elite AFL footy if you're launching in to big weekends every week and I reckon we've seen that with some of our players if you know where to look. I reckon you can count in one hand the number of truly elite players who could keep that lifestyle going. The majority of AFL players get in long term relationships early, settle down and live a pretty boring life. They are good citizens who do community work, are super professional about their trade and the last few offseasons has shown are really low level of crime and disorderly behaviour. Certainly compared with their NRL colleagues in Northern states. What good comes from punishing AFL players with really harsh illicit drug policies? Do we all feel a little better about ourselves because our heroes are all clean skins? Do we feel morally superior? The current policy has stopped a repeat Ben Cousins. That was its aim and it has been successful. Club culture can take care of the rest. How hard is it for a coach to get with his leadership group and set standards about behaviour and work out which players are going too hard and sort it out? Trade, delist, play in the 2nds. You'll sort it out in no time.

This year the athletes who quickly became footballers mostly due to their fitness and speed are getting shown up by the footballers who know what they are doing (many of which are cross code athletes but have either played juniors or played games). Newman from the Dees is a great example. She's always been fast but didn't know when to dish off, when to evade and how to run in to space. Plus she kicked like a soccer player. Now she's very much a footballer. The big challenge is the AFL keep shooting it in the foot. More expansion next year means shuffling the teams yet again. If the Dees hadn't lost 2 players to North and 4 or so I think it is to Geelong they'd be even stronger. Same for the other teams. With 4 new teams next year I'm guessing each established side gives up another 5 or 6 players. So goodbye continuity and improvement. Also means 2 extra games and 6 more umps, which based on todays showing will be another challenge.

So what's our style of ball movement and what forward line suits that? Goodwin has said contested 1000 times since he's become coach and I think that's the basis of our style, then we restrict space with defensive pressure when the opposition has the ball then spread in to space with guys either open or getting one on one contests when we have the ball. 'Changing the angles' is a common phrase we heard the last few years that means kicking on angles to leads and then linking up and attacking space. Pretty much a boulder rolling down a hill but deftly bouncing side to side picking the right path. What do we need for that? Forwards who provide the right balance between winning contests, spreading to space, closing space up and using the ball well to keep that bounder rolling. 2 mobile talls in T Mc and Weid provide targets for longer kicks, Spargo and ANB get contest to contest defending or getting over to be the 3rd guy in, the medium sized guys particularly Petracca and Melksham become mismatches because they can win one on ones in the air or on the ground. Hannan is a barometer, when he's on he can be the perfect 7th forward who can do anything as well.