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DeeSpencer

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Everything posted by DeeSpencer

  1. It will be interesting to see how they fill the other 40% of game time on the wing. Clearly the futures of VDB and KK are still very uncertain but I think if KK comes back they can settle him where he's played his best footy at half back and have him earn a spot there before worrying about the wing again. Meanwhile if Vanders makes it back to fitness they can have him at half forward rather than big midfield minutes. Probably still a need to keep drafting wing/forward kind of players or mids with more versatility. Still it's far easier to fill in for 5-10 minutes a quarter on a wing when the regular guys do a mountain of running and play most of the game.
  2. Smith and Kielty delisted, Walker (cat B) retired. Rookie A list: Lockhart, Dunkley, C Wagner, Chandler Rookie B: Bradtke So if Stretch and JKH go we've then got 5 spots and can use them in any combination of 3 main, 2 rookies or 4/1 or 5/0. My guess is we'd take 4 draft picks and then have someone prelisted (Murray) similar to Corey Wagner or train on for the last rookie spot. I'd imagine we look for another Cat B player as well depending on club finances and who's available. I like the idea of adding an Irishman.
  3. Add me to the list of people somewhat interested in Butler, but at the same time thinking we've got Hunt and Hannan who might not be as nippy but have extra size and aerial ability and can kick a goal a game too. Maybe we train those guys up on how to tackle and chase properly and they become better overall players than Butler Butler would also only be a short term improvement I think, so the draft will be the long term answer. Just like Oscar stays and Frost goes due to contracts I can see Butler not coming and Hunt/Hannan staying for the same reasons.
  4. That year was the one time we did actually have important future trades to do, most years we have nothing more to come and seem to do deals early for a bit of good publicity. The bigger picture = draft picks. Even if it's a late pick or getting shuffled up the order by 2 or 3 picks that can make all the difference. Last year Adelaide and West Coast got 2nd round picks for moving back only 4 spots at the start of the second round. The Giants picked the slider of the draft in Bobby Hill. Then we picked Tom Sparrow. If we were to pick Sparrow I would've loved an extra 2nd round pick as well! If you start with the presumption that we will eventually get the trades done for the players we've targeted - Lever, Melksham, Langdon etc. then the purpose of all the haggling is to give Jason Taylor as strong a hand at the draft as we can. Especially now that teams will live trade up and down the draft there's a great opportunity to get extra value.
  5. T Mc took the best defenders and was clunking marks, splitting packs and kicking his set shots. Melksham was also vital as the set up man. Weideman doesn't have to have 22 good games, half a dozen good games, not too many shockers and if he's injured we need reasonable cover. Richmond and West Coast and arguably GWS are still the only teams with 2 gun key forwards and Riewoldt missed or was underdone for most of the year and Josh Kennedy never plays a full season in good health. Tommy should bounce back and give us a dangerous tall, if not then we'll have to look for that player and it won't matter that we didn't add a Bruce or a Jenkins. No point having a stack of 2nd best guys if you don't have a stud. The lack of dangerous smalls is probably the bigger issue that we haven't attempted to solve so far, hopefully the draft is the solution.
  6. Poking my eyes out with a fork. I hate this stuff. Seems to be Mahoney 101 every trade period. I don't think either deal is bad and I get that they've gained and lost a future 2nd round pick but treat each deal in isolation and get the best possible deal. The object of the trade period should be to make the best possible improvements to the list not to do deals that are packaged up nicely. At least we didn't get the 'we wanted to finalise deals early to work on other priorities' this year, usually get that one every trade period before nothing further gets done.
  7. Hogan kick 3 or more goals in 9 games in 2018. 7 of those we won comfortably against Suns, Bulldogs, Bulldogs, Crows, Suns, Saints, Lions. The average winning margin in those games was over 40 points and only the Lions game where we had a huge lead, hit a wall then pulled away was remotely close. The only times he kicked 3 or more in close games or losses were against the Cats in round 1 where he kicked 3 straight and had 3 marks and against the Saints in that awful loss. There's not a single game in 2018 that we won that we would've lost if he was missing - apart from if it meant Tom McDonald and one of Smith/Weideman were also missing. Our biggest issue with key forwards for 2020 is getting Tom McDonald right and making sure we have the depth to cover the 2nd tall forward spot. If Tom McDonald gets back to 2018 form/fitness and we have 22 solid 'do your job' games from Weideman/Petty/other competent key forward then we'll be fine.
  8. Will be keen to watch 42 and 50 move with academy picks. If they end up at a similar value then I don’t mind this trade. I hate the idea of betting on the Hawks having a bad year next year. If we just did Frost for 50 and kept 42 it might’ve worked out better.
  9. Thought we’d keep 22 and use later round pick upgrades but I don’t hate this deal. Just think the extra value of pick 22 comes with teams looking to trade up on the 2nd night of the draft. win plenty of games next year and this will be a bargain
  10. If that's the case I wouldn't even sign him during the draft stage, I'd have him train over summer to fight for a preseason supplemental list spot alongside Harley Bennell and any other talented leftovers from the draft, let the best man win.
  11. Always hard to get a read on NEAFL form and he had some rough moments at AFL level, including in the final against the Pies. But he has a heap of tricks and would've been a first round pick most years. Shows the benefits of that early 2nd round pick as well, as teams reassess after the first night of the draft and look to trade up, unfortunately it looks like we'll give it up for Langdon.
  12. Not interested in picking up their off cuts but pressuring them in to a really strong return with a nice haul of draft picks for moving back a few places and maybe a player thrown in as well is good business. We've got the upper hand to push for a really good package. In the Tyson deal we were desperate and paid massive overs for no good reason, that's not the case now.
  13. Has to be the Giants future first round pick and maybe more. They’re turning mid and late first round picks in to the 3rd and 4th best players in the draft, they’ll rightly have to pay for it
  14. What do you see in Nash? He's big and athletic but 11 goals in 19 games, only ever kicked more than 1 goal once and rarely cracks double figures in disposals. I'm not sure he's going to be a successful project and if he is I'd imagine it might take another couple of years at least and be as a key defender.
  15. That's true, for every better top pick there's a better player drafted at 7-10 like a Selwood or Danger but when it comes to draft night the team with pick 3 has the best shot and getting the Oliver, Bont, De Goey etc. The team with pick 3 has the chance to make the best pick, the team with pick 6 has to hope their guy gets through. St Kilda just moved from 6 to 12, and got pick 18 to do so. I would argue that moving from 3 to 6 is more valuable than moving from 6-12 given it all but guarantees the Giants of getting their man. It's at least worth a first rounder pick and I'd want it to be top 15.
  16. 23 and a future 5th : 27, 32 24 and a future 5th: 28, future 2nd Carlton = 2019 pick 23 (for now, likely more 25-27). Now there was talk of a draft drop off after those picks, and GWS probably are happy with 23, 28 for Bobby Hill, it's a lot but the kid can play. Gold Coast not so much for Jez Mclennan at this stage. But it shows what teams were willing to do when a player they wanted was right there in front of them and available.
  17. My price to move from pick 3 to pick 6 would be a top 15, maybe even a top 12 pick or equivalent player. Think about the potential difference between Oliver and Parish - and I like Parish! Or Oliver and Weideman. The only way to accept anything even remotely less than top dollar would be to wait until the night of the draft and have nearly complete certainty that the player you are drafting at pick 3 will remain there at pick 6. The Giants are getting an extra top 3 pick by doing this deal, they have to pay up.
  18. Clubs bring it up when trading for players with rough values or exchanging late picks in deals that favour academy/father son clubs, when it comes to top end picks getting swapped for lesser picks the system goes out the window. The Gold Coast paid 27 and 32 for picks 23 and a 5th rounder. The Giants paid 28 and a Carlton 2nd round pick for 24 and a 5th rounder. That was to draft Jez McLennan and Bobby Hill - teams gave up 2nd round picks to move up 4 spots! When it comes to offering up pick 3 we need to make a big surplus on the draft values.
  19. I'd already like to drop all of the C players down a level and drop Hibberd from C+ to C. But I feel very confident about the B graders (maybe a little shaky on Melky who might be a B- if his defensive game doesn't lift next year). But there isn't a team in the comp who couldn't find room for Salem, Fritsch and Harmes. Langdon fits in on this level and Tomlinson is hopefully a B- not a C+. Getting up to 15/16 B- or above players supported by some handy C+ guys is how we made and won finals. Obviously we've had a few drop off but we should be able to replace them.
  20. If we are to improve next year then I think Petty either plays as a serviceable tall either back or forward or Oscar or Weideman beat him out and show they are at least C+ types. Same thing goes for Jordon, Sparrow and I'd add Spargo - all 2nd rounders who have enough of something to get games as flankers if they aren't busts. Spargo's played in 2 winning finals after all. We are the masters of 2nd year blues so maybe we know how to fix it too! At least 1 of these guys can do something next year surely! Lockhart should already be included as a C/C- type, he's certainly no worse than the other half forwards. Unless he has no tank at all I'd never pick Corey Wagner over him. I still have some confidence in Oskar Baker. He hasn't done a proper preseason coming from the NEAFL and then missing all of last summer with hamstring rehab. He's very one dimensional but that one dimension - grab the ball, run, kick with penetration - can be enough if he can do it 10 times a game and not stuff up the rest of the time. I'd probably say he's 20-30% chance of making it but with development coaching and Burgess magic that could be higher. The way he moved (in attacking) from stoppages and hit some kicks was AFL standard. Some of our best footy in 2019 came when he was finding the ball. And I know you aren't a fan but I'm a believer in Kade Chandler as well. If we are to bounce back he's the exact type of unknown player that good teams find and develop quickly. Not a star but the tackling and quick on to the ball enough to do a job. It's hardly an inspiring group of players but our drafts in 15/16 were all top picks, mature agers or busts. I think we've forgot what it's like to develop players like Jayden Hunt or James Harmes who take a while but then come on quickly in years 3/4/5.
  21. I think his opinion is fine but I also think you could've come to the same opinion by watching 10 minutes of most Melbourne games this season. I also think a list analysis before the trade period and without providing any opinion on the first and second year players is a waste of time. It annoys me that the Herald Sun have a huge footy budget and don't spend any of it or anyone who can provide something of quality.
  22. A (elite): Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver B+ (nearly elite): Steven May, Christian Petracca, Tom McDonald B (solid): Christian Salem, Jack Viney, James Harmes, Bayley Fritsch, Jake Melksham B- (potentially solid, need to bounce back): Angus Brayshaw, Neville Jetta, Jake Lever C+ (role players with occasional quality): Sam Frost, Jayden Hunt, Marty Hore, Michael Hibberd C (role players) : Corey Wagner, Nathan Jones, Alex Neal-Bullen, Mitch Hannan C- (sub par role players): Jay Kennedy-Harris, Braydon Preuss, Josh Wagner, Billy Stretch, Oscar McDonald Injured* (quality unknown): Kade Kolodjashnij, Aaron Vandenberg, Joel Smith Developing*: Sam Weideman, Developing: Charlie Spargo, Oskar Baker, Harrison Petty, James Jordan, Tom Sparrow, Toby Bedford, Aaron Nietschke, Austin Bradtke, Kade Chandler
  23. If I'm taking the time to go through a detailed analysis of a teams list there's no way I'm spelling a name like Neal-Bullen wrong. He's played 73 games, he's not an insignificant player. I actually agree our list is overrated, that's how you drop off and win 5 games in a season, but there's nothing insightful about how he came to that conclusion and spelling a name wrong is an obvious reflection of that.
  24. Did he really spell Neal-Bullen wrong? That’s the level of intellect we are dealing with here. Move on
  25. But imagine the goals he'd kick on Oscar at training. Wouldn't matter that he'd kick 20 goals a season if he's kicking 10 every match sim!
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