DeeSpencer

Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs

I didn’t. And if 2019 wasn’t 4 years ago that might be a factor.

Adams was the biggest butcher around which is why Fly moved him to half forward -where he was very good. Be interesting to see if the Swans even let him play predominantly midfield and if his body holds up. Grundy will be painfully good for them tho. He thrives on the responsibility of being the number 1 ruck. Longmire will scream at his defensive efforts but he might be motivated to improve them. And I like JJ and Hamling as free agents. Just not sure what they’ve paid JJ but they seem to have cap space. Hamling a risk worth taking, I’d have him for Tomlinson for sure, but he’s not the ideal fit for what we need from a 3rd tall, but a nice fit next to Rampe and McCartin. I’d say smart shopping for a youngish side needing to beef up. McAdam could work out well for us. Fullarton is an ok low cost flier. Would like to see us do something for pace and/or a versatile tall before the draft being our main focus.

No, I just think footy stats are incredibly devoid of context. I’m better Daicos had a way higher metres gained than even peak Billings, and in things not measured or freely available - speed of ball movement and risk/kick rating I’m tipping he’d move it faster and to better spots. Factors ignored by basic stats but evident when one player is All Aus and the other battles away in the VFL for a lot of games because Ross Lyon doesn’t want to play him. Maybe I’ve undersold Billings’ field kicking but aside from the significant injury risk I don’t see him as an upgrade at half forward or on the wing.

That’s disposal efficiency, his kicking efficiency has been above average or average for his career. But his contested possession rate has always been below average in the mid to high 20%. If you’re getting uncontested ball you should hit a higher percentage of effective disposals, doesn’t mean you’re an impactful kick. He lacks penetration. He’d be a slightly better kick than Hunter on a wing but there’s no way to trust his body. And lack of pace and lack of kicking penetration would hurt us just like they do with Hunter. I guess his 30m kicks would be better than Lachie’s heaves. But it would just be a different flavour of older slower wing. He’d definitely be a better short inside 50 kick than some of our half forward options but he’s never been a pressure player. I’d rather in form Spargo who can pressure and kick inside 50 or put more time in to kids.

Billings has kicked 108 goals and 123 points in his career. For a skilful player he’s a dreadful kick for goal and his field kicking doesn’t stack up either. We’re getting McAdam - 72 goals, 40 behinds for some forward line depth. If we had faith in his body he could do Hunter’s job but we don’t need another Hunter. Of the perennially injured saints players I’d prefer Dan McKenzie who was looking like a very handy quick wingman before his body blew apart.

They could do a Dunkley style deal where they match if he’s taken outside of Victoria and not match if another Vic club takes him. And/or match if he falls outside a certain pick. But my guess is they don’t trade up to pick 4 unless they have him as well, effectively guaranteeing they’ll have exchanged 3 firsts to get 2 firsts or two in the top 25 ish.

The one I’d look at from the Pies is Trey Ruscoe. He’s a bit of a character but he’s a good size, decent athlete and can win the ball. I think he’d make a nice back pocket option should we need to cover McVee. Or the undersized third tall role Hibbo played this year. We’re light on for defensive depth and his VFL form was strong.

Body is shot, and even if it wasn’t he’s either a mediocre wingman or a forward who doesn’t pressure and misses his set shots. We need pace!

Short and slow, can only play on the wing because his lack of pace everywhere else is a killer.

Eliza West is in poor form which leaves too much for Purcell to do. Backline top heavy as well, think we’ll see Chaplin in for Colvin (or Birch). Half forwards and mids couldn’t get in to the game today. Pressure and possibly wind just messing with our uncontested game? But we’re a run and carry side and if we don’t establish that game we just look hopeless at half forward going to bigger and we’ll positioned defenders

The entire team are playing with BBE. Big Birch Energy

Midfield getting beat up and making some silly decisions. Need to do the basics

I’d argue you don’t watch Dees games intently if you think Hunter’s kicking was good. It was dreadful. He lifted his contested work in the finals but unless we find a way to get him the ball more in space he’s just going to be looping the ball 30m down the line to no one.

We don’t have the key position depth to stop him getting opportunities as a forward even if Gawn is healthy. Going small with 2 talls is probably the optimal set up but to get through the home and away we’ll need Fullarton or Schache to play games. I’m hoping Fullarton can grab that chance because it would allow us to manage Max in games and he’d bring something different to our midfield mix.

VFL this year: 18 matches, 30 goals, 15.3 disposals, 4.5 marks, 4.6 hit outs (Lions often played 2 primary rucks). He’s discount discount Luke Jackson. Id be concerned he doesn’t hold up as a starting ruck, nor does he make a consistent impression as a forward ruck. But he’s well suited to cover both roles and I can’t imagine he’ll cost much as a contract or a trade.

I have more faith in us sorting the half backs if McQualter can get Troy Chaplin and our experienced defenders to loosen the reigns a little. Salem's always lacked a little kicking penetration but if we can get him healthy he's still one of the best ball users in the comp. And there's genuine competition/help in that role with Bowey, McVee, Rivers and Howes. Half forward is a different challenge. The Lions forward just don't defend to an elite level. That's why they aren't premiers. They need to get more out of their talls and Rayner (if he's the 3rd tall). Charlie Cameron can be spotty. Dev Rob is the only defensive worker and he's not amazing at it. They are actually crying out for an ANB like player! I'm not convinced we'll suddenly be blooding kids in the hardest position on the ground. Reid has undeniable talent so you'd chuck him in and live with it, a bit like JHF at Port this year. But McKercher is the type of midfielder who usually has to play midfield. Duursma's VFL form said he's a fair way off and I'd almost be tempted to start him off half back to make it easier for him to adapt. The Pies favour defensive half forwards. McCreery is a spotty attacking player. Lipinski. Adams. Even Ginnivan when he came back in came in to defend first. Midfield is the position we desperately need an injection of skill to balance things out. Seems we might be removing a player without great skills. Not sure if any of the top draft picks will be able to walk in to the midfield and provide us that balance from year 1.

No idea if he can coach, didn’t do much to inspire with his opportunity. Chucked the veterans on ball to help win a few games. But the Hardwick endorsement holds some weight. And the Richmond fast ball movement is something we badly need a good dose. The biggest McQuestion is what line does he take care of? Midfield would be favourite but forwards or backs shouldn’t be ruled out.

The 3 first round picks (and one last year) in any fair system would indicate they weren’t getting pick 3. And would arm them with easily enough ammunition to: Turn pick 2 in to pick 1 so they can celebrate Reid OR Trade up for pick 4 so they can trumpet having picks 2 and 4. The best thing for the afl would be North getting Reid and the Eagles getting Curtin and a stack of picks so they too can improve quickly. I bet they’d like Essendon out of the dog house quickly too. Now that Carlton are up and about they won’t want one of the big 4 left behind.

Grundy was overpaid for what he was - a decent starting ruck but no longer a game changer. The Pies had 2 decent rucks and needed to get the Grundy cash off the books. Harry McKay is still a 1 million dollar a year forward IMO, purely because of the scarcity of the position. Carlton are rumoured to be fairly tight to the cap but no one is saying they need a firesale to remove a bunch of cap space. I still think they're better with the 2 key forwards but even if they aren't it's a good problem to have and they surely wouldn't be desperate to make a move for less than the full price for a very talented key forward in his prime.

When the average player will soon make 500k it’s not that much. Im not 100% sold on McKay either but McKay and a rookie is likely a better result than 2 x 500k players if you don’t have a mature key forward.

Donald or David Cockatoo-Collins?

We've got the list spots and would be paying him to rehab anyway. I see it as him being the assistant forwards coach and working closely with JVR and Jefferson. Joel Smith too. If he makes it back to play and can contribute that's a bonus.

If Adelaide desperately wanted to win the flag next year - and crazier things have happened - they could grab Chol to fill Thilthorpe’s role, he’d pair perfectly with Tex and Fogarty. Then get Petty in at CHB who would drastically improve their backline. Meanwhile Thilthorpe would be a perfect fit as forward/ruck and JVR with another summer can play more chf. But the age of Tex, the age of May, how high the Dees rate Petty and how high the Crows surely still value Thilthorpe I just don’t see it happening. Nor can I see the Crows giving up Thilthorpe for picks alone.

We haven’t lost Brown (or T Mc) yet and even if we do their money probably stays in the 2024 cap. Melksham, at a minimum will be owed match payments for 2024, so no real saving there. Probably have to pay a chunk of Harmes’ deal to play elsewhere too. JJ and Hibberd, not big money there. At least half, if not 80% of Grundy’s money probably goes to finding a replacement. Im guessing we don’t have the space to bring in a big deal and there’s no point trying when it costs a stack of quality picks that we need to refresh the list. Wait a year and we can target someone and pay for it with junk picks!