Little Goffy

I despise managementese but hopefully he's looking at 'work cut out for him' and thinking 'opportunity laid out in front of him'. Assembling an agenda of actually achieveable goals based on Demonland gripes for the last six months, his checklist would read something like: Item 1: Reform our mdifield capability by adding the proverbial yard of acceleration and a bit of agility to our young beast group such as Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver. Item 2: Maximise the advantages of the group of relatively light, not-quite-tall mobile players like Hannan, Fritsch, Hunt, Kolodjashnij, Smith and Hore. Item 3: Help a few older players stay refreshed and nimble, particularly with helping Jones in the necessary reshape to play on usefully in 2020, and also Hibberd and Jetta as particular examples. Item 4: Ensure our key position players have the 'right kind' of confidence-building weight and muscle, whether adding or subtracting from the gross amount, and get Tom McDonald back to the front of the running trials. Item 5: Above all else, bring in a risk-controlling program to develop the 'protective' strength and flexibility of our host of players going through recovery or with patterns of injury. There we go, easy. And now I have a baseline on which to judge the poor guy. Does he know what he is in for, if we do anything but triumph continuously for the next five years?

Agreed, I thought that a slide that far would be fantasy-land, but my wondering is about whether a dip as far as say 11-14 could conceivably happen, Jake Lever style. It is a conundrum. We agree absolutely that the team needs some genuine dominant creative players far more than it needs an extra 'acceptable' role-player here and there. I think the wounds of top draft picks of the past have me reluctant to put all that hope on one pick right at the pointy end. You can quite reasonably point to missing out on Kelly (and Bontempelli two picks later for emphasis), and it is also fair for me to shudder remembering our own history of top-4-pick mediocrity, and point to Boyd, Billings, Scharenberg, Kolodjashnij and Aish from the same top-end picks of 2013. So, my perspective is, if we can manipulate our way to two very good (e.g. 8 & 13) picks and use them to take the kind of naturally gifted players who slip a little through injury like Kemp or a question mark like Cripps fitness or Fyfe's size, or even just someone underestimated like Heppell or Docherty. I'm also of the opinion that we'll somehow claw our way up a couple of slots, back ahead of Carlton and the Swans, and pick 4 doesn't have the grandeur of pick 2 in this draft. Having said all that, I totally respect that anyone confident of grabbing the next Kelly or Walsh would vomit at the idea of passing it up.

Just dwelling on Brodie Kemp's injury and potential slide. Seems like a bit much to hope that he would now be available at our second round pick, but it does make me wonder if the possibility of him being around in the teens might make a pick-downgrade trade more appealing. Naturally there's some hesitation about any kid with a long-term injury, especially when acceleration and agility are a feature of their game, but we aren't looking for more reliable blunt instruments, we're looking to add some really dangerous and creative types who can put oppositions off balance in amongst our usual midfield grind-grind-grind. You don't get that without taking risks. There are a whole lot of players suitable for us but with some question mark on them. Byrnes, Sharp, Worrel (inj), Mahony, Bianco, Williams and now through injury to Kemp. Does anyone else feel like the 'place to be' in this draft, other than top-3, is in the early teens? Could make for some interesting upgrade/downgrade trades and even live trading on the night.

I agree in general but also kind of accept (what I imagine to be) the reasoning. I'm of the opinion that the club was quite aware of the reality of our list and that we needed to keep turning over players while we look to fill the gaps we have. Unfortunately, Kent and Pederson for example turned out to be players in the kind of roles we could really have used a bit more depth in this year. Still, would they have realistically been in our 'future premiership 22'? Probably not. I'm starting to come around to the idea that the club decided to take a calculated risk of a crappy 2019, with their minds fully focused on the proverbial utimate success. All looks like a pile of stinking rags at the moment because every risk we took has simultaneously gone bad for us. I'm sure the club wasn't anticipating this situation and quite likely expected that we'd still hold a spot in finals, but I am also sure that they aren't planning their recruitment and development efforts to 'do pretty good in 2019'.

West Coast 214.159 for the season. It pays to kick straight and/or take marks close to goal and/or get behind your opponent's defence for run-in goals.

Personally I thinke very player who is performing in their current position and needs time to build a relationship with their teammates in a complex and team-oriented part of the ground where they excel, and which was a significant vulnerability right up until, oh, pretty much when they became available there after a bout of injury, should be moved to a different position.

Um... year on year... Wins: +3, +3, +2, +2 Ladder position: +4, +2, +2 +4 Looks like a pattern being continued to me. Honestly your false logic and misuse of stats sound like they came from the national society for climate change denial. The claim by others (including the ever-reliable and wise Garry Lyon) is that 2018 is the aberration. The evidence is that it was not, but rather part of a rolling pattern of improvement. Possibly overperformance on account of two runs of sensational form and hitting a couple of 'suitable' finals opponents, but only in the realms of 'pleasant surprise', not 'wild and wacky amazeballs'. Given the circumstances of this season I'm completely comfortable calling 2019 the aberration. Wouldn't mind putting it in the same aberration basket as Richmond's 2016, Geelong's 2003, Hawthorn's 2009, Port's 2000, Sydney's 2009, West Coast's 2013, Brisbane's 1998, Essendon's 1997, or Collingwood's 2005. I honestly wonder if there has even been a single premiership won in the last 30 years by a club which had not gone through an unexpected slump just before. Oh, Hawthorn's surprise 2008 premiership, which was funnily enough immediately followed by an unexpected slump. Thing's went to all kind of crap this year, for sure. But frankly anyone who now wants to wallow in self-pity so completely that they feel a need to write off 2018 as meaningless needs to get their MFCSS medication checked. Including Garry Lyon. Anyway, the argument is simple: there's a much stronger case to say 2019 is an aberration than there is to say 2018 was.

Yep, definitel an aberration - that's what I think whenever I see incremental improvement year-on-year over a number of years. Sigh. Everyone wants to have the biggest feelings.

It might justset people if I pointed out that the club has been fully aware of Preuss' limitations and has been focusing on using this season to develop him, specifically concentrating on his intensity and contested marking, with a view to making him a viable two-on-field option beside Gawn. In other words, the club knew he wasn't plug-and-play to the need when they got him, but believed he could be what was needed and that they would be able to get him there. Over time. Meanwhile he's at worst a handy asset for emergencies.

Nooooo, it is just what the old gypsy woman said! IT IS ALL COMING TRUE! Also, RickyBobby approves this table.

"Heads need to roll..." That's just what we need, another long term injury. It is already known the we will finish 14th, we should've known it in the pre-season. It is just what we do after winning a final. But my question is, how did we react in 1999? What will it take to follow up this 20-year anniversary with going one better next year? At least we can be pretty confident that overall the club is doing much better than its on and off-field horror show of 1999.

Very hard to say anything new at this point. I'm inclined to let the solid slice of people who were genuinely under some misconceptions about Goodes' own behaviour have their own quiet moment, rather than shout at them to 'change themselves' according to any set prescription. I just wish there were better ways to cut the ties that allow the true-filth racists and just plain all-round-bstards to subtly drag other people along. In the end, perhaps the most racist thing done to Adam Goodes was the effort made to slander and misrepresent him in order to rile people up against him.

I've said before, but I'll throw it in again now that a few pages have passed; my main reason for thinking that Jones should kep going (aside from sentiment, or the fact that he is still putting in some pretty good games) is that he is a player who is capable of recognising his weaknesses and working on them, and adjusting his game. Put another way, Nathan Jones is quite able to recognise that 'The 2019 version of me is unlikely to contribute much in 2020 with another year in my body' and then follow that up with meaningful thought on what the 2020 version of himself should be. Could be interesting, for example, to see how much weight he is able to strip off in favour of better running and agility.

Interesting to notice that during his set shots he had a distinct look of calm, untroubled concentration, but watching his goals from general play there are a few moments just before he takes the shot where his whole face and body language seems to be saying something between 'hur hur here we go' and 'watch this mum!'. Inspired by this, I say start Petracca from the goalsquare for a whole game and tell him to take a shot whenever he gets it, and not worry too much about chasing once it is out of his area. Worth it for the fun alone.

Personally, I think it'll be a nice run, part of finishing off the year with six consecutive wins.

Ironically, they could reduce tackling by actually paying holding-the-ball and incorrect disposal more reliably. If the penalty is there for being caught, then players and coaches will work harder to avoid it. More evasive tactics, less barging into tackles trying to mindlessly break through, more effort to get the ball to the outside of a pack rather than current acceptance of just having another ball up on the spot, and so on Meanwhile, tackling remains every bit as much a part of the game and also becomes even more of a spectacle. We can get through this round of HQ neurosis without wrecking the game, I swear.

Oh no. No. No no no no no no. Ah hell. Oh, this is no good at all, not at all. This will not do. You know who we really need, the extra tall forward who can float aroud the ground, uses the ball well, and who is currently out of contract and probably unhappy with the way his current club hung him out to dry in the pre-season, and is a Victorian boy currently at an interstate club. Forgive me. Ahhh I can't even type it. Jack Watts.

Our midfield is built to bustle, getting an ugly ball forward, never mind the details. Unfortunately the credible rotation has shrunk with Vince and Tyson gone, Jones necessarily finding a new role, and Lewis obviously playing less and less time around the middle. So the rotation of decent inside mids that we do have is getting tired, and we don't have the depth to let them shift around to spare them from constantly swimming inside the washing machine. Naturally, they can't afford to diversify to do anything more than their core job of bashing it forward, they don't have the legs to run defensively and they don't have the freshness (physically or mentally) to be clean in their ball use. Injuries on the half-lines (esp. Hibbered and Melksham) compound the issue and the call-ups from Casey haven't delivered the necessary standard. Capping off the point, the allegedly lazy fatty Petracca is second only to Oscar McDonald for time-on-ground this season, at over 88%, because we are desperately trying to keep those core mids rotated to the bench while he smoothes his fatgiue up forward. It is all the old 'too much for too few', and we've had to limit our play to what we can do, instead of what we'd like to do. Meanwhile, our forward line, currently almost entirely injured, has also been almost entirely out of form. The fringe players we had up there providing some diversity last year combined for 3+ goals a game in 2018, but are either not on the field or far down in output this year. For example, 2018 to 2019 goal-per game numbers for players in roughly the same role - Hannan from 1.5 to 0.7 Nibbler from 1.1 to 0.4 Spargo from 0.8 to 0.3 You can play around all you like with the mess of Garlett, Vanders, Kent, Hunt, Fristch and so forth, with injuries and positions changing all over the place, but there's not a lot of useful insight there because there's been so much change. I guess the main insight is simply that there has been so much change and disruption. And clearly, whatever way you mix it, Weideman and Smith are not currently a rival for Hogan's 2018 contribution. Not even combined! Tom McDonald has been not even half as effective as a forward as he was in 2018. Just as he was showing a pattern of improvement he got injured, so, yeah, life sucks. But it is also notable that in the scattered few games where he did perform well, we mostly won. In fact, his five best games for the season are also our five wins. His numbers in those 5 games are uncannily similar to his 2018 stats, most notably averaging 2.8 goals. Tom McDonald kicked 14 of his 18 goals this season in Melbourne's five wins. I'd argue that McDonald is second only to Gawn as our most important player, and he has had an absolutely pestilent year with injury, form, and more injury.

All our mids are up-and-down in effectiveness, which to me speaks of youth (obviously) but also fitness and the old problem of doing the small things right consistently. As others have already pointed out, there is also a problem where players aren't alert to what to do 'next, next, next', there tends to be a half-moment of idleness in between actions, instead of a natural flow of activity. The other thing missing is situational awareness, the intuitive (yet somewhat trainable) understanding of where everyone around you is now and is about to be in a moment. For both these things the current example would be the poise of Pendlebury, with the pinnacle I've ever seen being of course James Hird as a player. Just google that final quarter vs West Coast to see example after example of zero hesitation and incredible awareness. Dare I say... if only we could bottle some of that. Haaa ha ha haaaaa. I'm going to make a few people here vomit by suggesting we bring in Hird as a specialist coach. In football terms it absolutely makes sense but the publicity would be something awful. Or, the ultimate redemption character arc. Less vomitoriously, in the legendary words of a cliche gap-toothed grey-faced and completely plastered Collingwood supporter; 'Bwett Watten! Bwett Watten! Bwett Watten!'.

Does anyone else get the feeling like we've been playing a kind of inside-out 'whack-a-mole' with our midfield's form this season? For any given game, one or two might be up and a few others down, but very rarely do we see the whole midfield group performing effectively together. Which I find particularly interesting because the midfield is where we've had the least injury damage and seen (statistically) the least drop-away this season. Definitely applies to all the young mids, even Oliver has had some lesser games though they are harder to pick out in hindsight because his raw numbers kept churning over. Meanwhile the co-captains have been the most inconsistent of the lot. Funnily enough, Petracca has progressed from one of our least reliable to one of our most reliable. Of course, compounding all of that is the weak form of the 'second layer' like Nibbler, Stretch and Lewis, who might normally at least keep the machine churning over with work rate or a wise head, but just aren't. Umm... I was supposed to imagine the gains... ummm... Our forward line has been outright eliminated by injury, our defence has been shredded and chewed by injury and is only now being spat back out onto the field, and our midfield has struggled to all find form at the same time. So... uh... It is easy to see how much better things could be next year? ?

Finally, today we can now resolve the debate about whether it is the midfield or the forward line that is the problem. Because today we have no actual full-time forwards named.

Fact is, I often look to deep mismatch games like that with an edge of hope, looking for someone to replace the 186 misery. Would you believe I put myself through watching the 'highlights' on youtube the other day? Quite the experience, and here we are with Adelaide kicking a goal every three minutes and it still isn't enough to compete with that dark dark moment. Never forget. Always seek revenge. Against everyone. Like Captain Colostomy. Meanwhile, we all have to rely on Port and the Crows to keep Essenscum out of finals. How odious.

I wonder if ever any club has actually managed to go an entire season with an average of 1/3rd of their list injured? Could be in record-breaking territory. Remembering that we had already passed the average total missed games for a season before the halfway point.

Jones is a player who has adapted and improved his game in response to changing circumstances or evident deficiencies a number of times over his career, I wouldn't put it past him to use the coming preseason to really target particular points of his game to improve what he can offer in a new role. With a clear plan over the preseason, I'd back him to still be of real, best-22 value next season. Certainly I think it would be a mistake to ditch him ealry, when he clearly wants to keep going and clearly is the type to accept a realistic appraisal of what it will take for him to be appearing at AFL level once the team is back in form.

Not sure any more than the basics is needed - Melbourne wins tally 2007 to 2015 - 5, 3, 4, 8, 8, 4, 2, 4 7, Gold Coast 2011 to 2018 - 3, 3, 8, 10, 4, 6, 6, 4 If you want you can trim it for the first couple of years of Gold Coast being a new club, and for Melbourne's final year in the period (the 7 wins) being considered part of our bold new dawn. The grand total of our official draft assistance over the period was Sam Blease and Jack Trengove. But setting the actual season results aside, does anyone really think it is a lack of draft picks that has been limiting Gold Coast's performance? To paraphrase Tony Cochrane "I don't think there would be any fair minded person who would say that nine years at the bottom isn't time to give a genuine kick to the head of those responsible".