Little Goffy

Well now that's got good omens written all over it.

Social maths is never so simple. Indigenous people are a much higher share of the 'Australian football' population. Even in the formal kids program, Auskick, 6.5% of the kids noted on their registration that they were Indigenous. So we're already looking at an expected five or so draftees per season and 50+ players on lists before you even begin looking at the disparity of participation in informal play or the effects of whole community relationships to Australian football. The Rioli family is not a statistically significant share of the Australian population! Given the timelines the article discusses, if there's a question to be answered it is simply "Has there been a negative shift in Indigenous participation in elite pathways since the Covid period?" If the previous connections were thinned out during the disruptions, such as culturally specific programs being cut during Covid and not yet restored, or community coaching programs in general haven't kept pace with the private school programs, then that would explain the current mild decline and would also point to a risk of continuing problems.

Lots of people will be pretty pleased with how that worked out. I suspect most disappointment will be with St Kilda's Battle compensation taking Alix Tauru from us. I'm going to hope that it works out a bit like getting Van Rooyen after missing out on Mac Andrew.

I've been struggling to find an analogy. Lindsay was easy because something twigged in me that said 'Kade Simpson', but Langford I can't quite pin a comparison. Earlier in the thread a couple of people noted an Angus Brayshaw look at times, and that caught my attention as well, particularly with a few occasions he ran hard back with the flight of the ball to take a defensive mark on the wing. Langford does look like a very 'complete' footballer, in a way that got me so excited about Gus back in his draft and early days. I remember thinking about how Petracca was 'one day' going to be a player who ripped games open, but that I still preferred Brayshaw for that feeling of completeness.

Possible that we have transformed our play around the ground in two drafts; Windsor, Tholstrup, Langford and Lindsay. Really looking forward to seeing them have a bit of fun while still shielded a bit by the powerful bodies of Viney, Trac and Oliver.

Now that Smith is off the board, I want to be clear that he is very annoying and will probably plateau early into the top end of 'good ordinary'.

Raising an eyebrow to later in the draft, it has been interesting seeing just how far Luke Trainor has slipped due to concussion. From a high of being routinely projected in the top-5, here's the range of picks he is placed at the main phantom drafts going around; 28; Cal Twomey's AFL.com 28; ESPN >27; Foxsports 20-40; Also Foxsports 18; SEN 22; RookieMe Central Concussion gives us all the skin-crawling sweats for obvious and sensible reasons, but surely a slide into the late 20s would start making us consider trading up to grab a potential jackpot in the key defender succession plan. We wouldn't need him on the field immediately so the scope for a cautious and thorough management plan would be there, he'd have great mentors, and we might be the no.1 club for responsible concussion management at the moment. Just a couple of months ago he was considered the outright best tall in the draft.

It is clearly a significant dip, but we don't want to get into a situation like when some [censored] 'artist-activist' made their attention seeking protest piece about how Geelong was the only club which didn't have an indigenous player in it's AFL team, when Geelong had spent the previous 20 years above average for indigenous presence. I have to give a hat-tip to @DeeSpencer for his list of plausible causes. In simplest terms - AFL elite pathways are becoming more narrowed and favouring privileged children. Indigenous children are less likely to be privileged. This kind of thing which isn't necessarily racist but does 'perpetuate a racist legacy' is exactly what critical race theory was originally about before the look-at-moi bloggers on the periphery of academia took over and ruined it. Reminds me of an old observation; If in 1980 you had waved a magic wand and eliminated racism, Australia would have been overall an equal enough society for a lot of the disadvantages to be absorbed with time and a new era to begin. But if today you waved that wand Indigenous people would still be stuck because Australia as a whole is now much more stratified and exclusive. I do wonder, how many 'poor' kids in general are making it into the AFL now? 25 of the projected top-30 picks this year are private school kids.

This must be how quantum physicists feel, waiting for their wavefunction to collapse. I think I'll go with three preferences for each pick, since the availability is so unpredictable. 5. Langford, Draper, Smith 9. Tauru, Lindsay, Smillie. I also suspect something interesting might happen with our late pick. Maybe even a trade-up into the 30s for a slider JT believes in.

I honestly can't imagine a scenario where a club that took a Curtain last year passes on a Draper this year.

His nickname may have to be Mouldy given how many people he's been growing on lately.

I think he is a lawyer, but needs a better one.

I'm going quietly mad waiting on this as well as waiting on some big news for myself, so as a procrastination from this procrastination, I was musing to myself about where we would take our current list if they were 18 year olds. Even knowing how their career has progressed. I wonder about not only 'draft our list in order' but also 'slot them into the current draft'. Cue the Trac v Gawn pick 1 debate. I'm 100% Gawn, myself.

With a variety of herbs, half a kilo of mixed beef and veal mince, several tomatoes, a carrot, zucchini and garlic, and significant cheese stocks to go with a series of flat pasta sheets, do the Demons really have what it takes to produce a carbonara in 2025? And can they afford the garlic bread?

I don't want to put you on ignore because you make a lot of interesting contributions and do have real insight into the club, but those eyerolling moments let you down badly. Seriously, imagine getting snarking at someone for asking a football related question on a football forum.