Adam The God

What absolute nonsense.

Playing at my old stomping ground, the Knights. Very good. Thanks for the insight mate.

#we'renotdeadyet

We have a few seats up the front here. A few more jumped off yesterday. In the last month, we've played the last 3 grand finalists and are 2-1. And that 1 was a single point defeat. We're not dead yet.

I agree. I think we can still make finals. It might just be you and I that think though, mate.

Fascinating. If I've understood this correctly, fitness can still be the major factor for the inaccuracies in key games and almost certainly a key factor in our inaccuracy this year. I also wonder how much psychology comes into it. Fritta has been up and down with accuracy, a player with a very solid technique. Even Melksham yesterday missing two he'd usually nail. Petty is totally a confidence player and can shoot the lights out (think that long bomb from way outside 50 against Freo) and then miss from everywhere. He needs an early goal. It comes back to psychology and I also wonder how much comes down to game style. Melbourne plays a far more brutal game style (given our best players are contested beasts) than Collingwood (whose best players are silky, evasive, fantastic users). So you've got not just physical exhaustion, you've got mental exhaustion, and after using your body as a battering ram to tackle, or win the ball, or bring the ball to ground versus 2 or 3 opponents, by the time you get the shots on goal, the lactic acid is such that you're more likely to miss. When we play our brutal contest game (like yesterday) we beat up teams around the ball like no other side in the comp. We generate more inside 50s than most sides. This, I think, goes some way to explaining this data.

The scores per inside 50 are surprising in a way. We are transitioning the ball to an elite standard, but butchering our goalkicking. No surprises there. But very interesting to see this: Scores Per Inside 50 38.9 37.8 +1.1 44.3 Goals Per Inside 50 18.5 24.4 -5.9 23.4

I think his kicking is mostly linked to fitness. He'll dump kick if he's exhausted. The fitter he gets, the better his ball use. Exhibit A 2021-2022.

He's a confidence player. I said to my old man before he kicked his first shot, "we really need him to kick this as he's such a confidence player". Had he kicked the first one, he would have been on, and I would have given him a chance of kicking the tight one from the pocket that Mihocek kicked. In the lead up to his second shot at goal, I said, "he missed his first one, so he'll kick this on the full". Sure enough, on the full. It's definitely a problem, which is why I'm sure we'll keep trying to land a KPF.

Yep, Kozzy one of the few who regularly kicks them flat. Chandler and Langdon have both been really good at this as well, but I think @Harvey Wallbanger is right. It was intentional the way we played, and won't be the go to every week. It wasn't even the go against Brisbane or Hawthorn when we played them both.

I think Clarry and Trac are getting back to their best. I wanted to share some highlights that just popped up in my YouTube. Spend 15 minutes of your time watching this and see how many times Clarry creates scores with his kicking. In a high pressure, big final. I think he's getting back there. For reference, Josh Daicos had the most touches on the ground yesterday with 34, 4 turnovers, 1 goal assist, 7 score involvements (a lot of easy uncontested possessions behind the ball). Clarry had second most touches on the ground with 30, 4 turnovers, 1 goal assist and 6 score involvements. If Daicos was good yesterday, so was Clarry. And they were.

Good break down mate. I want to focus on this bit. I think Goody and the team have shown quite a lot of game style flexibility this season. If we were winning more often, we'd be hearing that we're learning to win in different ways. I think it's very likely we went back to a formula we know works well against the best sides and will try for a more expansive game, as you imply, against lesser opposition that have greater difficulty defending the ground as well as Collingwood do. Their defensive transition reminds me of ours between 2021-2023. Incredible and a split second hesitation in ball movement and their entire side is back into defensive position. I do feel quite strongly about our high lofted kicks inside 50 yesterday though. I think we have to minimise them in order to score more, unless we have even numbers. When we had them on toast in the first quarter, we saw them revert to this long and high kicking to the top of the goalsquare. Our defence managed to neutralise these quite easily, even at ground level. But when they were going high and long, it was to even numbers. When we were going long and high it was often to extreme outnumbers or to the advantage of the defender(s). I'm fine with bombing it long if you can get a contest and it's not too often to the disadvantage of our forwards, but I felt yesterday it was.

And @Fork 'em , since when has doing the hard stuff equalled to the remuneration one gets in society?

I've been surprised by the lack of commentary on game style regarding yesterday's game. Our approach yesterday was very much 80% 2021-2023.5 method. Which is: win the contest, bomb long to create repeat inside 50s, and hope more shots on goal leave us ahead of the opposition at the end of the day. (the NBA 3 point method - data drives most elite sports in the world and the tactics employed by coaching teams) The remaining 20% was where we changed our angles when we went longer, tried to use forward handball on the rare occasion and a very small amount of uncontested possession at the back. But our entries were sloppy, high and often to our disadvantage. Melksham and even Petty did well on a few occasions to halve a contest versus 2 or 3 defenders. I'm not sure of the stats, but we did appear to use the corridor more than we have in the past, but that's a function of playing a team that gambles so much with numbers forwards and leaving space through the corridor to ping back into. I was most disappointed with our entries though and it was the most similar style to the way we played in 2022-2023 that I can remember. We know this is a highly competitive model, there are a few Demonlanders, myself included, who think we left a flag on the table in 2023 with this game style. It matches it with the best, but aren't we trying to evolve our game style? Use more aggressive forward handball, use more uncontested possession to open up their defence and control tempo? I find it really fascinating that there are no cries on Demonland last night or today about the game style being outdated when we go close in games, but when we turn off our pressure (not a function of game style), it's an outdated model and Goody needs to get with the times. I've seen posters say Goody has worked out how to stop these sides playing fast. This is not new. We were masters at this in 2022-2023, so much so we finished top 4 both years playing against this fast ball movement. I just think people see what they want to see sometimes. I'd prefer we continue to evolve our game style, particularly, how we move the ball and how we enter forward 50, because if we do this, the forwardline will function and we'll start to blow teams away. Until then, we'll be ruing missed chances, scoring shot differentials and inside 50 differentials. I think we can win a flag again soon if we get this right.

I would like to agree with this, but we have more than enough sample size of our own defeats in close games versus Collingwood's wins in close games since 2022 to form an opinion that it's more than just luck. If that's the commentary around the traps, I agree with it. They were cleaner when it mattered more. If we tided up some of our entires, we win comfortably.

Maybe. I think he's our best defender now. Not only does he regularly take third man up marks, he moves it on quickly and for the most part retains possession for us with his kicks. We've tried playing him forward multiple times. The way the ball came in yesterday was too high and long after quarter time. I felt we changed the angles long really well in the first but couldn't capitalise without a real winner forward. So I get the call to move him forward. But I find I no longer trust Lever and in many situations I don't trust May either. So Turner is our reliable defender. However, we very rarely score goals from our back half, we mostly score goals from the central area of the ground. So despite offence starting from defence for many teams in the modern game, perhaps we're an outlier there. Haha, I'm arguing against myself and flipflopping within the one post. I'd like two Turners. Maybe the move is to bring back TMac, though he now seems horribly out of form. And then play Turner forward. But who rucks? I think Turner forward gives us problems with our forward mix. JVR is our best second ruck. Petty and Melksham are our most experienced forwards and can be relied upon to halve or win most contests. Having another tall crowds the forwardline. That's I think where I land. Keep Turner back.

If he is tiring he's not showing huge signs of tiring IMO. He did shirks contests a few times, particularly against Cameron who he could have halved with his aerial prowess. His role model is Trac who regularly shirks going back with the flight. I made this point very early in this season and was told the game was changing and that going back with the flight and potentially getting injured is less of a priority these days. I take that point and admit my viewpoint was dated. I think that's the way the game is going. Players are regularly dropping out of aerial contests to protect themselves. It is what it is. The players are human after all and have lives to think about after footy. Trac suffered a near death experience and there is an article in the press every couple of months about former players with concussion symptoms and likely CTE, which btw is very likely contributing to suicide amongst former AFL players. The 2025 game is a different beast. It's an aerobic game that impacts decision making and the difference between being top of the ladder or outside of the 8 is executing under fatigue and under pressure.

Yep, me too on Whitten and my tears. The problem is he needs the ball coming to him and fades in and out of games as a forward, like young forwards do. Whereas when playing defence, the ball comes to him. He stays back IMO. Lindsay looked far more tired. He was subbed after lying on the ground exhausted grabbing at Hill's ankle that gave him his only goal for the day. Conversely, Langford was our 6th highest disposal getter with 19. Lindsay managed 8 to nearly the end of the 3rd, making him 3rd equal lowest possession getter. Windsor managed 6 in one quarter or so.

Hard game to analyse outside of we let ourselves down with goalkicking again. Sure, we butchered the ball at times, but so did they. They just butchered it less. If Trac could kick, he'd be the best player in the comp by a mile. That miss streaking into goal had to be kicked on the outside of his foot, not a drop punt when your body is facing the pocket. Thought we controlled the game for at least 3 quarters, but they were more efficient. We did so well to make them turn the ball over multiple times, only to take the wrong option going forward. I do think that Trac and Clarry are trending back to their best though, and soon, history suggests they'll be more damaging on the scoreboard. We still failed to turn many of our slingshot chances into scores and when we did get it inside, we missed 3-4 chances that would have had us comfortable winners. Starting with Melky's miss from 30m straight in front and Fritta's wasted chance to go back and kick 4. Compare Petty's miss in the pocket to Mihocek's goal from pretty much the same position. One kicked it straight through the middle, one kicked it on the full. Rivers straight out the front of the stoppage in the 1st or 2nd quarter misses, but Sidebottom kicks his. It only takes a couple of opportunities to go our way and we're winners. A disappointing loss but I'm surprisingly philosophical. I hope the team responds next week.

What's May thinking though? "Max, we had 30 seconds left, you should have finessed it up the line to the contest?"

I turned to my old man when Max went for it and said I'm not unhappy he went for it. He had to. May is a firey character, but he should know better. With 30 seconds on the clock, you have to take a risk. I suspect May would like to have his time back. I've no problem with Max doing what he did. Rationally, nor should any other Demon.

When Demonland has too long to discuss things it invariably becomes about potting the club.

Caro is a good newsbreaker, who does a lot of the AFLs biding. The fact she hasn't really touched this suggests that a number of clubs would he implicated (good - they should be dragged over the coals like we were), and with her track record on turning a blind eye to Richmond, they are probably one of them (Lynch?).

I've always liked the KPF and second KPF/ruck. That could be Jeffo and JVR, but it has to be Petty and JVR at the moment. Jeffo will fill the Melky role in time, if he makes it.

In: Viney, JVR Out: Sharp, AJ, Laurie McVee May Lever Bowey Turner Salem Windsor Oliver Langford Langdon JVR Chandler Kozzy Petty Melksham Max Trac Rivers Lindsay Fritta Viney Sparrow Sharp I think that's the strongest team we can put out on the park if Viney is fit. The sub role is up for grabs. Sharp does have good assets for the sub role and almost always hits the scoreboard. If Laurie was more trustworthy, I'd have him there.