Fat Tony

Against the Dockers, we kicked 11 goals 18 behinds, with 5 rushed and 1 touched. Part of the reason for poor kicking was the wind, but we really missed some easy shots. I know it was a repeat of a number of our losses in recent years, but hopefully it comes good in the real stuff. I am pretty optimistic that we will win 16+ games if our midfield averages 63-45 inside 50s per week. (Conceding 109 points from 45 entries was more concerning IMO.) I think our forward line works best with Melksham in the side. He is clever in the way he blocks and makes sure that there is enough spacing between the forwards so that we get more one-on-one contests. Fritsch is much better as a deep forward. I am not convinced in Viney or Rivers as forwards. I think we would be better playing Rivers back and giving our other midfielders more time on ball. Oliver had an impact as a forward, but I think he is better as a midfielder. Langford could be a weapon with his marking and long kicking, but this might be a 2026 story.

I agree with most of this, but our ground defence was a bit shaky at times and we need to get better at protecting the middle of the ground.

Great summary. I would not have had Gawn in the best players and thought he was very rusty, but he sets a high bar of expectation. I am not convinced we have the skill to chip the ball around in defence like that, but it will be much easier in a large stadium with less wind. I thought Oliver was much better this week and looked more dynamic. Having Petracca next to him in the midfield gave us the ability to explode out of stoppages.

Pretty good effort I thought. Obviously a bit disappointed with the accuracy, but it’s not a real game. Petracca and Oliver played as well as we could have hoped for. Max was ordinary in a first hit out. We really need him dominating the air. I would like Rivers played in defence. We don’t need him in the midfield at full strength and he’s an A grade defender. Sparrow has played two excellent preseason games. Langford was just fair. It will be interesting to see how he is used. I think he’s not really athletic/strong enough to play as a forward yet and he’s isn’t in our best midfield. Lindsay looks faster and more ready to slot into our side. Windsor needs to polish up his kicking to take the next step. I think we’re over possessing the ball a bit in defence and lack the kicking skills to play that game style. I don’t really like Fritsch being so far up the ground. Goodwin is obviously trying to mix things up, but I think a lot of his previous tactics were right for our list. Does anyone know why Petty didn’t play?

Is there a full stats sheet somewhere?

Langford looks the goods but is a bit slow. Will need to get strong enough to bully them on the inside. Lindsay looks excellent. Has time and can kick it a long way. Jefferson is a mile off. Lacks football smarts and intensity. Oliver was just ok. I’m not convinced he’s going to be an A grader again. AMW played well. Hopefully it’s not an ACL. Sharp looks a magnificent replacement for ANB. Great recruiting. TMac is a better defender than Petty. Sparrow played well. Campbell played a good game and will be handy depth. Johnson was good in his cameo.

In modern AFL, a key defender might have a dozen true one-on-one contests in a season, but they will be in hundreds of contests where pace and mobility is more important. Petty is less mobile than TMac. Petty is not "a much better option". It is marginal and I would go for TMac.

You’re definitely right about the balance of the side being out with four tall defenders. I want to see Petty forward in Round 1. TMac is a better fit, as he is more mobile.

Watching the recruiting team talk about Henderson, it is hard to believe they went for Johnson.

The Roos also put the intra club match on YouTube in full.

My bet is that TMac plays well in the preseason games and that Petty plays ok but gets played as a forward in Round 1. TMac was the 14th highest rated key defender in the AFL last season based on Wheelo ratings and our best. While this may not be the best way to measure key defenders, he was very good last year and he has reportedly had another good preseason. I also think Petty could be much better as a forward this season than last. His lack of preseason last year meant he lacked power and acceleration. Moreover, our midfield supply was reduced last year due to Oliver being so down and Petracca getting injured. The forward line showed against the Suns that it could work with Petty, Turner and Van Rooyen playing forward.

I don't think the forward line is an easy fix, because our midfield contains a lot a great ball winners but they are ordinary kicks. That said, I think our forward line always looks worse on paper if Melksham is picked as a key forward, but it functions a lot better with him in the role. Richmond won a flag with Jacob Townsend as a key forward and Melksham is a similar and more skilful player.

I’m not convinced Petty is an upgrade on TMac as a defender. TMac was excellent last season.

You have to trust the club, given they would have all the information, but I think our list needs another fast small forward more than a slow inside midfielder.

ANB played an important role in recent years, particularly covering for Petracca in defensive transition. I would like to see Langdon play this role this year, which is a 50% mid and 50% high half forward role. I don't really see the benefit of playing Langdon as a centre bounce midfielder. Gawn, Kossie and Petracca should be in most centre bounces IMO and that leaves only one spot for Viney, Oliver, Rivers, Langford and Sparrow.

I have picked a team based on best and fairest results and All Australian honours. B Frawley May Hibberd HB Vince Lever Woewodin C Johnstone Jones Yze HF J McDonald Robertson Petracca F Green Neitz Davey Fol Gawn Oliver Viney Int White J Rivers Bruce Farmer Sub Moloney Emg Jamar Garland N Brown McLean Year B&F 2nd B&F All Australian Team 2000 Shane Woewodin Jeff White Jeff Farmer 2001 Adem Yze David Neitz 2002 David Neitz Cameron Bruce David Neitz, Adem Yze 2003 Cameron Bruce James McDonald 2004 Jeff White Nathan Brown Jeff White 2005 Travis Johnstone Russell Robertson 2006 James McDonald Cameron Bruce James McDonald 2007 James McDonald (2) Nathan Jones 2008 Cameron Bruce Brock McLean 2009 Aaron Davey Brent Moloney 2010 Brad Green James Frawley James Frawley, Mark Jamar 2011 Brent Moloney Jared Rivers 2012 Nathan Jones Jack Grimes 2013 Nathan Jones (2) Colin Garland 2014 Nathan Jones (3) Dom Tyson 2015 Bernie Vince Jack Viney 2016 Jack Viney Nathan Jones Max Gawn 2017 Clayton Oliver Jack Viney Michael Hibberd 2018 Max Gawn Clayton Oliver Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver 2019 Clayton Oliver (2)/Max Gawn (2) Max Gawn 2020 Christian Petracca Steven May Max Gawn, Christian Petracca 2021 Clayton Oliver (3) Christian Petracca Max Gawn (captain), Jake Lever, Steven May, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca 2022 Clayton Oliver (4) Christian Petracca Steven May, Clayton Oliver, Max Gawn, Christian Petracca 2023 Christian Petracca (2) Jack Viney Christian Petracca 2024 Jack Viney (2) Max Gawn Max Gawn

I favour shorter quarters, shorter half time and more games in a season. Dangerfield makes some good points about reducing the number of overlapping games in a round. The other advantage of shorter games is they finish earlier at night. As much as I love the current length of the Demon games, my interest in the other games fluctuates (I still would watch 5-7 games per week).

We really need Oliver to be an A-grader this year. We won't be a genuine chance if he gives us another C-grade season. We also hope that Max can continue to be a dominant force, Petracca comes back well from injury and Langford has a good debut season, but I think the rest of our midfield is much more predictable in terms of expected output.

Only when inside 50.

An issue with Fritsch is that he is really only valuable as the deepest forward. He is not a great kick inside 50, is one sided and lacks the effort when the ball hits the deck. This means that he can be a liability up the ground and we need to structure our forward line with him close to goal.

Adding another key position player to the side takes away from our running power and pressure. This is more important because most goals come from turnovers and then finding a free player inside 50, not from big pack marks by key forwards. JVR is a good player but I don't see him being at top 10 forward in the game. I think his best role is as a forward/ruck. Max is going to ruck 80-85% of game time. Fritsch is best used as our closest forward to goal. This makes it difficult to structure our forward line for the other key forwards, who need to be mobile. Petracca also can be used close to goal as a target. Jackson was 20 in 2021.

I like JVR in the ruck. He competes hard and is capable in the ruck contests. The answer to our forward line functioning is not more targets. It is more pressure, better entries and straight goalkicking. Having JVR in the ruck means we play another player (like Tholstrup or Sparrow) who provide pressure.

I like Melksham way more than Johnson and Jefferson at this stage.

I didn't include time on, but I adjusted the minutes of each player. (It is really the percentages that matter.) Oliver has historically played 80-90% game time. I am not sure if he will be able to do this as he ages but who knows what a full preseason could yield. I think Langford will be a centre square midfielder. Hopefully he can play well as a forward and his marking becomes an asset, but it is not easy to win the ball as a forward in the AFL as you are often outnumbered. I look at Ryley Sanders season this year, who showed AFL qualities as a midfielder but got squeezed out by the Dog's midfield depth and could not play another role. I think Rivers is an A-grade half back and a B-grade midfielder. His ball use was much better at half back this season because he had more time. He will develop his midfield game but I doubt he will ever reach Brownlow contention level. I am also not sure he offers a massive point of difference to Oliver, Petracca and Viney as a midfielder. I am not against the trial of Rivers in the middle, but my expectation is that we will get more from Rivers playing at half back.