Fat Tony

Kings birthday and ANZAC eave are home games this year, so that helps the financial situation. Plus, we will probably pick up some night games later in the year if we are still in finals contention.

Windsor will be like that.

I think the second bye is an advantage, but playing an away game in the humid Northern states in March is the biggest problem with being in Opening Round.

I don't really put much blame on Pert for the club's recent issues but a key part of the role is to be the fall guy when things go pear shaped. That said, he is obviously a spin merchant and has not been successful in managing the various crises engulfing the club. The facilities are really an issue because our history being tied to the MCG and because there is no key votes in government support for us. I think the Caulfield plan is going to be hard to get over the line given the cost and the state government's deficit, but hopefully it comes through. The problems with Oliver have been 99% Clarrie's fault, but the way he was shopped around by the club was messy both times and Pert and the club were naive to think we could trade him for anywhere near to what we believe is fair value. Petracca's issues have been mostly unlucky. I don't think the CEO is really to blame. I don't place any fault on Pert for the drug issues. Pert is not responsible for us going out in straight sets in 2022 and 2023.

Prove me wrong please Marty.

An issue we have is that Fritsch really only plays well when he is our deepest forward. He gets lazy with his pressure up the field and isn't as efficient as he should be when kicking inside 50. This means he really plays best as a key forward. Petty and Turner have both shown the ability to play forward and back, which gives us flexibility. Does Armstrong offer a huge point of difference to Turner, Fritsch and Jefferson? I am all for picking him if he can become Jeremy Cameron.

Armstrong looks to be very naturally skilled and coordinated, but he has an ordinary ground game and, with his light frame, there would have to be some doubts on his ability to get strong enough to out body AFL defenders. I think if we go this way, it is a bad sign on how we view Jefferson's prospects.

This thread would be better if it was merged with the Pick 9 thread given they are so close together and there is so much uncertainty about the top order of the draft. The strategy we adopt might also depend on who we expect to go at #6, #7 and #8.

Petracca really white anted the club in more ways than one this offseason. Some other problems we have at the moment are that Connors has too much power and that we are viewed as lepers. We need to discreetly lobby the AFL to introduce anti-concentration measures in the player agencies, while doing everything we can to improve our relationship with Connors and co.

I think they changed the system so players can be Rookie listed ahead of the Rookie draft, so long as they were not bid on in the National Draft.

I never like the strategy in these trades. We are paying credit card interest and next year we will hear about how good the top end of the draft is.

Alix Tauru’s highlights look as good as any prospect in the draft. If recruiters think he will develop into a midfielder, he looks to be the full package. Tauru and Smith might be the players with the fewest weaknesses.

Viney is not much of a forward IMO. Given our list construct, with Petracca, Oliver, Viney and Pickett as good centre square players (assuming Oliver's hand heals) the perfect draftee for us would be a player who can play 2025 in a periphery role but can develop into a centre midfielder in future years. The Dogs drafted Rylie Sanders, who looks a centre midfield only, and they got limited value out of him this year as he wasn't able to play another role. By contrast, Windsor was able to play as a wing (or probably half back or half forward) and was more valuable this year. I think the bigger centre circle and the 6,6,6 rule has made a difference in what types of midfielders do well at centre bounces and that skill and speed has become more important than grunt.

Longmire has zero in the last decade.

I have come to realise how lucky we are to have Goodwin. One of our superstars has ADHD and addictive tendencies. And another is self centred. And neither of them can regularly hit a target inside 50. The whole playing group could have easily fractured and turned on each other with a poorer coach.

Surely the better strategy is to bring in a ready made replacement when Max is done, rather than take the risk of drafting a ruckman.

We might have also been able to get Tholstrup with our original pick. The whole concept of pushing up the draft is very expensive but it can be justified because we have been doing it to improve our team while we have Petracca, Gawn and Oliver in their prime. I am not sure that it holds anymore and, rather than paying credit card interest rates, I think we should be more willing to receive it.

AFL footy is a 24/7 job, not just what happens on match day.

It might look a bad deal to you, but you don't know the full story and have to work with Oliver every day.

I think we are effectively asking the Cats to put up their best offer by today or we will shut it down before the best and fairest. The media firestorm is too much for the club to handle for another 2 weeks. Either the Cats really want him and will pay his wage and give a 2025 first rounder or we will kiss and make up.

We might be able to trade him in the future, but we won't necessarily be able to clear his cap hit.

Clubs can front load contracts, which can be used in subsequent years. The draft is inefficient due to drafting U18s and clubs can can pick up high quality AFL players without premium picks. The draft is inefficient due to the academy systems and father son. With free agency and the power of the key player agents, player movement is easy.

Cap space is much more important.

Here’s a 25-point summary of the article on Clayton Oliver's potential trade from Melbourne to Geelong: Melbourne Demons face a crisis over Clayton Oliver's looming trade to Geelong. The club is weighing whether to keep a disenchanted Oliver or trade him for less value. Oliver feels unsupported and let down by the Demons after being used as trade bait twice. Melbourne risks further deterioration if Oliver stays without feeling fully invested. Despite tensions, Oliver may attend the Demons' best and fairest night out of loyalty to teammates. Oliver wants to move to Geelong, and his manager, Nick Gieschen, is working on the deal. Geelong is calm and confident about the trade, sitting in a strong negotiating position. The Cats are expected to offer a future first-round pick for Oliver, which is seen as a bargain. Geelong's psychologist, David Williams, formerly of Melbourne, knows Oliver well. Oliver could join Bailey Smith at Geelong, potentially revitalising both players’ careers. This trade would give Geelong a powerful midfield boost alongside other recent acquisitions. The situation highlights Melbourne's broader issues, including internal crises and player discontent. Melbourne initially stated Oliver was staying, but his positive meeting with Geelong changed that. The club finds it hard to reverse course after considering trading Oliver for two consecutive years. Gary Pert, Melbourne CEO, is under fire for his role in the handling of Oliver’s situation. Oliver feels abandoned after following the club's off-field expectations to improve personally. Coach Simon Goodwin repeatedly praised Oliver's development but now faces the fallout of trade talks. Despite personal challenges, Oliver remains a top player, winning four best-and-fairest awards. The trade saga is another setback for Melbourne after the Joel Smith drugs suspension and other controversies. Christian Petracca, another Melbourne star, has also had grievances with the club. Dan Houston rejected a move to Melbourne after hearing about the club's cultural issues. Oliver’s close relationship with captain Max Gawn adds further complexity to the trade. If traded, Geelong would likely pay most of Oliver’s $1.4 million salary, with Melbourne potentially contributing. Melbourne may use the trade to reset its culture and salary cap, similar to Collingwood’s past rebuild. The trade could signal the end of Melbourne's premiership window, raising concerns among fans. The situation highlights internal turmoil at Melbourne and Geelong's strategic opportunity to capitalise on the Demons' mismanagement of a star player.