Fat Tony

We should do pretty well if Petterd leaves (looking at the points system the AFL will use to rank players). He will get huge money to go and will only be 22. I think we will get a first round pick.

I would probably make no change. It was pleasing to see Watts do well in the VFL, but I don’t think bringing him in this week will enhance our chances of winning. (After all, this should be the main aim of team selection.) I would also like to see him string a few good games together in the VFL in order to earn a call up. I also think Dunn deserves another chance, as his form has been solid this season. He was nowhere near as bad against the Dogs as has been suggested on this site (as usual). In my opinion, Dunn is generally well skilled, but makes a few mistakes due to being low on confidence. I think he has the potential to improve substantially once he becomes truly comfortable in his own mind that he belongs as an AFL player. Looking at the match ups, I think Frawley will play on Le Cras, who is the Eagle’s best forward. That means that Warnock, Rivers and Garland will have to play on Kennedy, Lynch and McKinley. Cox or Naitanui may also go forward if Worsfold tries to stretch or backline. This could be a worry, so Bailey might consider recalling in Martin for PJ, as Martin is probably slightly more comfortable down back. The other option for Le Cras is Bartram. (If we decide to go that way I would definitely leave PJ in the side.)

In: Sylvia Out: Scully Comments: I thought Bruce was ordinary yesterday, but he is still easily in our best 22. Sure he makes a few errors, but he also gets a lot of the ball and his good generally outweighs the bad. He also provides our defence with much greater run and flexibility, which is important given the high number of rotations these days. We are going to have a selection dilemma if Rivers is fit, as I think that a backline including Warnock, Frawley, Garland, Rivers and Macdonald is too slow (particularly given Richmond’s forward line). I think Rivers is ahead of Macdonald, but it would be a very harsh call to drop Macdonald. So Rivers returns through the VFL for mine. People calling for Bartram to be dropped must not have been watching our recent games. He has been in excellent form over the last two weeks. If Jamar can handle the ruck by himself, we should continue without a true second ruckman. Spencer has not shown he is up to it and I think Martin needs to consistently demonstrate he can be a good forward at VFL level before gaining a call up. Newton has not set the world on fire, but he is a better forward than any of the other options. Scully has been a touch disappointing in the last two weeks. As much as I want to keep him in the side for his development, I want us to pick our best team. At the moment, his form does not really warrant a game. Given we are playing Richmond, I would also like to see us pick Watts. But another good game in the VFL would also be good for his confidence. Bate needs to lift. He has had a very slow start to the year again but I am still more confident with him in our forward line than without him. Dunn did some good things and bad things yesterday. But he has all the tools to make it as an AFL player and I think he needs to be persevered with. If he can gain confidence (which will only come through playing in the seniors) I still think he could make it and be a part in our future.

If we are picking our best side the changes should be: IN: Sylvia, Rivers OUT: Bennell, Strauss Strauss needs time to develop, but is obviously behind Rivers as an AFL footballer. We should pick our best side given it is only Round 3. Bennell did not touch the ball in the first half against Collingwood and his attack on the ball was not good enough on two separate occasions. Sylvia should replace him as a forward. Other Comments: Bartram played a good game on Leon Davis and deserves to keep his spot until his form doesn’t warrant a game. Bruce has been consistently in our best five players and had an interrupted pre-season. His game against Collingwood was serviceable and nowhere near as poor as is being suggested here on Demonland. Bate needs to lift his game, but he should only be replaced if we have a better option as a key forward. At the moment we don’t. Playing Jamar as the only ruckman worked exceptionally well on the weekend. It made us more mobile and, while he is in such good form, we should continue to just use a pinch hitter as a backup ruckman. I am no fan of Newton, but I thought he played one of his best games for MFC. He looks like he has put on size and he was also better than expected when he went into the ruck. If he were to be dropped, I would like to see Miller be given a similar role. Scully had an ordinary game but needs time to adjust to the pace. At times I thought Warnock was a little bit disappointing. Moloney reverted to bad habits by kicking long to the opposition on two occasions.

Sure we need a key forward, but why would a player at the end of their career (like Bradshaw, Fevola or Hall) want to come to a bottom club like Melbourne anyway? I know we could have taken Bradshaw in the pre-season draft, but he wanted too many years at too high a price given his age and back injuries. While I think our broad long-term strategy post 2007 was correct, I think it could have been much better implemented. In my opinion the current state of our list indicates that the Bailey regime does not have the conviction or judgement required to make an early call whether or not fringe players will or won’t make it – or they overrate their ability to develop players and believe that they can turn water into wine. A case in point is Jake Spencer. He is not a good enough athlete and is just plain too unco for AFL, yet it seems that the regime rate him. Another case in point is the length of contracts offered to Newton, Meeson, Dunn and Bell. These were far too generous given there accomplishments at the time and we are paying for it now. (I was disappointed we re-signed Newton at all after 2008 – let alone for two years.) Such decisions put significant doubt in my mind about the management of the club.

Obviously we would love to have a player like Dean Cox playing for us. He is an all-round great player - both in the clearances and around the ground. But it is also a question of economics given we operate in a salary cap environment. I think St Kilda's approach to the ruck is a much smarter way to go. They have recruited two good quality players (in Gardner and King) and are paying them a pittance compared to what both Carlton and West Coast are paying for ruckmen. This has left them with room in the salary cap to hold onto champions like Reiwoldt, who are much more influential in winning games of football IMO.

My comments from Saturday: Bail – Played OK, but did not display any exceptional qualities to indicate he will make it. Bennell – Has continued to come along nicely and I think he will develop into a player like Roger Hayden from Fremantle. His composure with the ball was a standout. Cheney – Was OK, but I don’t think he is quick enough or skilled enough to make it. Davey – Looked a bit uninterested in the time he was out there. Dunn – Was serviceable. His kicking was generally good and he looks to have all the tools to be a valuable player. I think he should be given the run will role on Luke Hodge in Round 1. Frawley – Solid game. Defended really well, but made a couple of skill errors. Fitzpatrick – Moves well for his size, but is very unskilled. I think his best chance of making it is in the ruck. Green – Top game from an underrated player. Grimes – Was good in the midfield but not outstanding. (I think some of the reports are a bit flattering.) I would like to see him running off half back again this year. Gysberts – Moves well and had no trouble adjusting to the pace of the game. Obviously it is difficult to tell as yet, but his kicking/disposal could be a source of future frustration. Hughes – Moves well but needs to get more of the ball. Jamar – Really had an big influence when he was out there. His recent development has surprised me. Jetta – Played quite well and used the ball reasonably effectively. He lacks a bit of pace, so he needs to continue to use the ball well if he is going to make it. Jones – Did not have a great impact but ran hard and looks very fit. Jurrah – He is so dangerous when he finds space, but I don’t think he was really working hard enough. Maybe he does not have the engine. Perhaps he is best suited to play deep inside 50 with most of the other forwards pushing well up the ground. Macdonald – Played OK when the matchup was right. It looks like he is probably in our best side. Maric – Worked hard, but had an off day with his kicking. I am not sure he has the raw pace for the forward pocket, so I think he will need to get fit enough to play through the midfield. He could also possibly be tried in defence. Martin – While I like the idea of him in the ruck, he was a bit disappointing. He needs to find more ball around the ground. McDonald – He has clearly had a good preseason and is still in our best side for Round 1. I would give him the task on Sam Mitchell against Hawthorn. McKenzie – Was quite impressive. Not sure he has the pace/skill to make it, but also not sure he doesn’t. Miller – Did not have a great impact but still our best option as a power forward. He needs to play against Hawthorn to give us some structure. Moloney – Was OK without being great. At one point he blazed away to a contest from half back, which was disappointing given his improvement in this area last season. Morton – Looks a bit bigger. I think he will end up frustrating supporters in the same way as Cameron Bruce. Not hard enough to be anything but a flanker/winger at the moment. McNamara – Has not developed much over the preseason. I am not sure he is quick enough for his height/position and he has plenty of competition for a key defensive post. Newton – Did some good things, but the reality is he is too slow for the top level (both in the mind and physically). Petterd – His kicking was poor. While he works hard, I don’t think he will ever develop the skills required. Rivers – Looks super fit and in for a big year. Scully – Was a little bit quiet and still needs to put on some size to be comfortable. Ran hard all day, but looked like he lacks a bit of polish by foot. I am not sure he is in our best side yet and I think he should be introduced into the AFL in the back pocket. I see him eventually turning into a Paul Licuria type midfielder. Spenser – Started the game on fire. I still have doubts he will make it given his skill level/mobility. Strauss – Did not really get into the game. Sylvia – Typical Sylvia performance. Showed patches of brilliance but, overall, was good without being great. Hopefully he gives us more than just a taste of his talent going forward. Trengove – Looks like he will be a star. He has great balance and skills and has a big engine. If he can develop a strong inside game he could win a Brownlow. Warnock – Solid game. Still our best key defender for the gorillas. He is certain to play on Roughead in Round 1.

I don’t see the need to re-sign Bailey before the season starts. We are yet to see any real evidence that he has what it takes to deliver us a premiership and he is not going to get another senior job. If we get off to a bad start to the year, the club should show some spine and not to let the media influence our decision.

I don’t think we can read into the decision to go for midfielders with the first four picks as strong evidence that the coaches have great confidence in our key forward stocks. I think the decision was solely made because our recruiting staff considered the best available player at each pick to be a midfielder. While our backline looks set for key position players, our forward stocks still remain very uncertain. The future really depends on how Watts and Jurrah develop. If they become Nick Reiwoldt and Daniel Motlop we will be laughing. However, if they turn out like Scott Stevens and Charlie Gardner we will be crying. Also I am not convinced that Martin is a forward and I think the experiment is hindering his development. He is not a natural footballer and would be better suited to either the ruck or the backline. In fact I would like to see him play around 40 minutes per game in the backline rotation and around 40 minutes in the ruck to relieve Jamar. While certainly not a traditional role, the game has changed and I think this type of role would suit both him and the team well.

My thoughts on the draft: • I am wrapped that we went for the players who we thought were the ‘best available’ with our first four picks and we did not select for ‘needs’. (Interestingly it seems as though every club did the same thing in the first round.) This seems a sensible strategy as there is much greater dispersion in the talent levels at the top end of the draft. • We were always going to be the big winners given we had the first two picks. Both Tom Scully and Jack Trengove are almost certain to be at least very good players. • I rate Trengove higher than Scully and see him developing somewhat of a Luke Hodge and a Scott Thompson type player. • Scully is certain to be a top possession winner and comparisons with Ben Cousins are not too far off the mark. At the moment his kicking is just fair by AFL standards, however, and he could develop into a player similar to Paul Licuria or Marc Murphy. • We clearly put a greater premium on players who could use the ball (instead of athletes) than most other clubs. • Our recruiters love private school boys. • Our team is going to be very close knit in the years to come given the close bonds already formed between the recent draftees. • I am unsure if Jordan Gysberts has the pace to be a top line player, but I am sure the club has done some homework in this regard. This will be one of the key picks which we will judge Barry Prendergast on in the future. • I would have loved Jake Melksham to have fallen down one more pick. Essendon supporters would be wrapped to have him. He would have been fair compensation for McLean. • I think Daniel Talia would have been a relatively safe pick at 11 and I think will be a good AFL player. But he does not look likely to be a key forward at AFL level and I expect him to develop into a defender in a similar mould as Jared Rivers. As these type of zone-off defenders have been exploited more and more in the AFL over the last few years, I can see why Melbourne therefore decided to overlooked him. (Also I doubt it would be possible to fit both Rivers and Talia into the one side.) Moreover, AFL forward structures are including fewer key forwards these days and we already have plenty of tall defenders on our list. • I found it interesting that we were not willing to risk Gysberts sliding to pick 18. We must have had an inkling that someone would take him beforehand. Otherwise we might have taken Lucas at pick 11 given that we ranked them very closely. • While I certainly do not place a heavy premium on ruckwork, I am glad we went for a ruckman with a clear competitive advantage (in Max Gawn). These days I see the ruck as a position where it is a significant benefit to be either much taller than the opposition ruckman like Sandilands or be more athletic around the ground (while being at least competitive in the clearances) like Ryder and Clarke. I think ruckman are better off being at either of these two extremes rather than being somewhere in the middle. • I see Nathan Vardy as being one of these in between types (that has no real competitive advantage) and I think he will be only ordinary at AFL level. • It was also very interesting that Hawthorn selected Sam Grimley ahead of Vardy. While Grimley is very athletic, he is just about as raw as it gets. • Gawn’s knee injury could have been a blessing in disguise for us. He probably would have gone much earlier had he played the whole year. I think it is a good strategy to go for high risk/reward type selections with later picks in the draft (like Gawn, Tom Swift or even Michael Newton) rather than what I would call ‘safe’ choices, such as Petterd, Bail or Cheney. • While it would have been a great story, I am glad we did not go for either Dylan Grimes or Liam Patrick. We just have too many players like Grimes already on our list (especially when you include Joel Macdonald) and I am not sure that Patrick has the natural skill level for AFL. • Luke Ball would have gone much earlier had he not put such a price on his head. I expect him to now sign on for a third year on minimum wage and I hope the AFL rules won’t allow him to take a pay cut for the next two years.

1. Scully 2. Trengove 11. Talia 18. Griffiths 34. Gawn 50. Panos PSD1. Macdonald Heres hoping!

I think most of you are being narrow minded. The facts are that McPhee finished 9th in Essendon's 2009 Best and Fairest and that he is only 27. McPhee would clearly make us a better side and he probably has at least three years left at the top level (given there are two new sides coming in). The McPhee hate is because he is ugly and does not appear to be a very nice person and because it is not clear where he would fit into the side. These reasons are irrational. Moreover, the game is not played on paper and I think his versatility is a major strength.

I don't understand why people care what Ball or his manager says or wants. It is meaningless. We cannot let players / managers walk over us. It damages our reputation. We have to be ruthless. We should take him at #18 if we think he is the best available / best value player. This decision should take into account his age, injuries and playing ability, as well as who else is left in the draft. Period.

I hope we take him. He would be an automatic inclusion in our side next year and he has the ability to play all over the ground. I am not a real fan of McPhee but he would be an accretive acquisition. He is likely to be the best available player in the PSD and he is not putting a price on his head above market value. At 27, with his athleticism and with two new clubs coming into the competition I see no reason not to give him three years at market wage. Fremantle are hardly any closer to a premiership than us.

The list is my opinion. Overall I think that it is a very weak draft this year and we are lucky to have the first two picks. While I am not entirely convinced Trengrove and Scully will be superstars at AFL level, I think there will be numerous first round picks that end up being duds. I like the look of Melksham. He wins the ball inside and out and is a good kick. To my way of thinking he is fairly low risk pick compared to others. The same goes with Talia. I am more confident that he will make a career of it than others in the draft pool.

I like his left shoe, but I think Talia would be a safer bet.

Does it really matter if he is a [censored]? People forget that Nathan Buckley, Wayne Carey and Gary Ablett Snr were all disliked when they left their first clubs.

We should be having this debate. The facts are that James McDonald turns 34 next year and we have been on the bottom for two seasons and are still several years away from our premiership window. He won’t be there at that time. IMO the captain should both be guaranteed and deserve a spot in the side for the whole season. I don’t believe it is in our long-term interest for McDonald to be given such a guarantee as his presence in the team prevents one of our younger players getting a game. We have undertaken a path of rebuilding through youth. Now is not the time to be half pregnant.

The fact that McDonald's spot in the side is debatable is why he should not be captain. We have to get games into our young players.

Whoever is best available in this order (no exceptions): 1 Jack Trengove 2 Tom Scully 3 Dustin Martin 4 Anthony Morabito 5 John Butcher 6 Daniel Talia 7 Jake Melksham 8 Gary Rohan 9 Ben Cunnington 10 Kane Lucas 11 Aaron Black 12 Lewis Jetta 13 Andrew Moore 14 Koby Stevens 15 Ben Griffiths 16 Luke Tapscott 17 Jake Carlisle 18 Troy Taylor 19 Brad Sheppard

A few points about the ruck: • Contested marking is becoming less and less important in the modern game. Players are instructed not to kick to contests and the kicking skills are so much better these days. • The best ruckmen in the game today are all good runners and most are reasonably good kicks. • In its endeavor to speed up the game, the AFL has made it harder for ruckmen to reach every ruck contest. • Using a third man up is a very effective way to negate any disadvantage in contests around the ground. • I don't think you will be able to afford to have two specialist ruckmen in the future. You will need at least one to also be able to play elsewhere. • IMO Spencer is incredibly overrated and should be delisted. He is not athletic or skilled enough to play AFL and is an ordinary VFL player at best. Better to rookie another big bloke and try again. • Vardy is not worth pick 11 and I doubt he will be one of the best 20 players to come from a very weak draft. He would have been lucky to have gone in the top 40 last year. For us to effectively give up Brock McLean for Vardy would probably be a blunder. • Martin is definitely worth persevering with in the ruck. Look at Mitch Clarke this year. He could develop into a similar player if given the same opportunity. • St Kilda has identified a good model for the ruck. Gardner and King were obtained for very little and are paid peanuts.

I would like to give Scully a year in the back pocket. It is the easiest place to learn and become comfortable with the pace of AFL footy. I also don’t think Junior should be an automatic inclusion in the team next year. While he is probably still in our best side and still our best leader, I think we should be getting games into players like Maric and Dunn to give them the best chance to make it. Others which might also provide greater long-term benefit include Petterd, Bennell, Blease, Jetta and Strauss. Fat Tony’s Potential Side B Garland Warnock Scully HB Bruce Frawley Grimes C Morton Moloney Trengove HF Green Bate Sylvia F Jurrah Martin Wonaeamirri Fol Jamar Jones Davey Int Maric Dunn Rivers Watts

IMO Wonaeamirri is not a definite starter (even if fit) and he will have to earn his spot. Also one of Miller, PJ or Martin has to play in the forward line to give us some structure. Otherwise Watts will get the best defender which he won’t be able to handle. (And I think Watts really needs to play in the AFL for the sake of his development.) For me its: Green, Sylvia, Miller, Bate, Jurrah, Watts and one (or two) of Wonaeamirri, Maric and Bleese depending on form. I would also like to see us try a structure whereby pretty much all the forwards push well up the ground except for Jurrah. I also think Dunn has a lot more potential than most posters give him credit for and should be in the mix for an early game given his end of season form and versatility (although probably not as a permanent forward).

I don't think we should be taking a KPP at #11 unless we consider him the next best player (or thereabouts). I also question the desperate need for another KPF. While it appears as though we need one at the moment because we are struggling, last year we drafted two KPF with star potential (Watts and Jurrah) and Bate is still fairly young and is developing into a good third tall forward. Players that don’t excite me at #11 are Carlisle, Panos and Vardy. If we pick any of those that early I think BP will be partially selecting on a needs basis. I also think we will be very lucky if Butcher slips through to #11. At #18 I would again go for the next best player if it is clear cut (although if it is a close call I would have a slight bias for a KPP if we don’t take one at #11).

Agree 100%.