Nasher

Joke.

19 for Hibberd for me, can be Melksham's locker room neighbour.

No, we have to make three list changes.

Hah. At this rate, it's quite possible we won't participate in the draft at all if we decide to promote a rookie or two.

No.

Are you this disingenuous on purpose? Not one person said that we have a better list than GWS right now. The context of this discussion is around the quality of the youth on the list.

How about the cheek of Hawthorn to offer him up as part of the O'Meara trade? Lol. I've wondered if this was some mad genius at play from them, but I'm pretty convinced now that it's just regular madness.

He put himself there though. If he'd nominated a club with better picks and less salary cap pressure, he wouldn't be in this position. It's a situation at least partly of his own doing. I don't feel sad for him at all.

It's okay, you have all weekend to get used to it. I'm pretty confident that is what the deal will be.

We're pretty much arguing the same point mate, but reaching a different conclusion. This the beauty of this stuff! Like I said - third round draft pick is a 0-10 year player. Lewis is a 1-3 year player. For the pick, the question is over quality, for Lewis it's over longevity. The risks are comparable IMO, but I'll agree to disagree as you weight them differently. Treloar is a 8-10 year player of high quality- the most valuable of the three by a long shot. BTW, In general I've always shared your view that supporters and club vastly overrate draft picks, especially earlier ones. I did an on the back of an envelope type look once and the chances of picking a complete dud in the top 20 was about 50% - astronomically high. I think my thinking in this case leads me to believe that perhaps the footy in public underrates the value of late picks (third round and beyond) though. I've never done the study, but it wouldn't surprise me if the probably of getting a decent player in the third round was comparable to getting one in the first or second round.

Macca, I reckon if you want to continue this argument then you need to find some more relevant examples. Treloar has no relevance at all in this; he was 22 at the time he was traded. I agree with the vagaries of the draft and the risks with picks; in the draft you might get a 10 year player or you might draft a spud. In this case though, the receiving club a 1-3 year player and Hawthorn get a 0-10 year player in return. In the case of Treloar, Collingwood received a player you'd expect to be a 8-10 year player at worst, who is a known gun. You would expect them to pay a heavy premium of that sort of player. Tom Mitchell is in the same category. Lewis isn't, because his longevity in the game is greatly shorter than the others. I go in to any argument expecting to be persuaded, especially when up against someone whose posts I love reading. Show me recent examples of clubs giving up anything greater than a third round pick for a player on the wrong side of 30, and I'll concede that that is where the price might be.

The reason I expect the price for Lewis to be low is his age. Anything better than a third round pick is giving Hawthorn a shot at another 10 year player in exchange for a player they have made no promise of retaining after 1 year. They've all but said they don't want him.

@olisik?

Haha, probably a better analogy. But I've got to be honest, if that's ever happened to me at all, it was so long ago that it's long been flushed from the memory banks now.

Fevola didn't say much that was revolutionary, as faultydet (I think) said, he pretty much just covered everything that's been said on here and elsewhere. I did love the line about Melbourne "being unsure if it was real or not" - that moment where someone's told you something and right up until it happens, you're stopping every five minutes going "nah really, you're not taking the piss are you? Seriously?" :D

No. It was after Brad Miller had lead the lads to Phi Phi island after the Troy Broadbridge thing. The story goes that while Sewell was unpacking his locker in to his bag ready to go, Ferguson was in Neale Daniher's office, in tears, pleading not to be traded.

Wrists well and truly unslashed at this stage.

Yep, there's a lot of years of pent-up "jeez I hate that bastard" I'm carrying. It's going to take some time to get over it I reckon. *blink* Oh there, it's gone. Welcome Mr Lewis, I've been a fan for years!

You trying to scare him off or something?

Not at all, I'd be stoked if I were a West Coast fan. Business decisions are always about risk though so that's where I'd be coming from if I were the West Coast list manager; whether or not I was front loading the risk too much.

Yes, there is a chance a pick will amount to nothing, I just raised those players because there's a risk the pick will amount to a good player. If the worst scenario eventuated, they'd be giving a 10 year player, and taking on three years of salary cap burden (assumption from me but I think a safe one) for a single year flag shot boost, which is also no guarantee anyway. These are all considerable risks to take on. Hawthorn also go in to the negotiations in an inherently desperate position. They wouldn't be trading their reigning B&F, Brownlow medal winning star with only a year to go on his contract unless it was of the utmost urgency. That doesn't give them a great deal of leverage.

Exactly. West Coast would be looking at a third round pick going "that's a Dean Kent, or a Mark Hutchings. Hawthorn shouldn't get shot at a 10 year player *and* salary cap relief so we can get one year out of a player". The true compensation for Hawthorn is urgent salary cap relief. The exchange of picks is just to satisfy the AFL rules for a proper deal.

Exactly my thoughts too. Interesting times. I love trade week(s).

So? For whatever reason, which can only be salary cap related, Hawthorn needed to offload him. For the same reasons I outlined earlier in the Lewis thread, when I said Melbourne would not sell the farm for a short term prospect, this counts doubly so for Mitchell who will only play there for one year before moving in to coaching. It's the right price for a one year player, no matter how good.

Yep, that's the context for my comments. I don't have your sources but what you said sounded right to me. Melbourne fans can probably hold off on the "Essendon are bastards to trade with" calls for a few years after this. I'm not unhappy though.