Skuit

I nominate @DeeSpencer and @picket fence to undertake an old-school school-yard pick-for-pick selection of teams from currently-listed AFL players, and then we can add a poll and the rest of us get to decide and argue endlessly over which is best. I just flipped a coin, and heads, Picket gets to go first, suitable karma for having 'Picket' in his handle before the drafting of Kysaiah as opposed to Spencil. A full 23-man squad, with consideration given to team balance and playing spots. @WERRIDEEcan arrange the selections into final line-ups before we vote. Other challenger match-up suggestions are welcome, or even the inclusion of a third or fourth party to make it extra interesting.

You're probably right - and I just got it straight up backwards. The sentiment remains though: we've paid a lot less in capital than what might be expected to trade in to current first rounds.

Thought I’d do a spot of analysis on what our ‘Afterpay’ strategy has cost us to date in terms of interest, as our ‘get-em’-in-now-and-develop-them’ philosophy necessitates that any club we trade in future markets with knowingly sacrifices that opportunity – logically requiring sweeteners to get these deals done. There is an element of gambling on finishing positions, but I’ll try to be as straightforward in my analysis as possible, and attempt to go light on the players actually selected at these picks – although some have undoubtedly been targeted. 2015 In the first year of future-round trading, we traded out pick 6 and 29 plus a future first-rounder to Gold Coast for picks 3 (Oliver), 10 and 43 in return. That future first ended up as pick 9 (Will Brodie). According to the draft points system, we actually came out on top by about 150 points, to the equivalent of pick 62. I can’t recall GC’s exact circumstances at the time, but it seems similar to this year, some sort of list management issue to spread their squad. We finished 11th in 2016, which was about expected, so I don’t think it was a matter of gambling on our failure. Notes: GC ended up taking Callum Ah Chee at 6 in 2015, and didn’t have another selection until 20, and then 34. The year after they took four players in the top ten. We, meanwhile, in a very busy 2015 trade period, cut another deal oddly in our favour with GWS – maybe due to similar circumstances – swapping pick s10, 43, and 64 for Bugg (whatever you think of him) and pick 7, which got us Weids (whatever you think of him). Our first move up was obviously to secure Oliver, and the second move likely had Weideman in mind too. 2019 While in the intervening years (Hannan, at 46, was our first pick in 2016!), we spent our first-round draft cookies on Lever and May (and how glorious a plan that turned out to be), in 2019 we returned to our now-first philosophy (taking advantage of our [censored] year, as stated by Lamb and Taylor, to bring in groupings of elite young talent to grow together – an approach possibly designed but definitely now echoed by Mahoney at Essendon). It should be noted though, that even in 2018 we selected the underager James Jordon, with the notion of an extra year of development. Futures start to get especially messy in 2019, with second- and third-rounders bouncing between multiple clubs, but I will try to focus on the specifics of the first round. We traded picks 26, 50, and our future first to North in exchange for pick 8. Our first-rounder had a post-slide value of 13 (spent on some guy named Tom Powell), adding up to a loss of close to 670 points, or around pick 29. We split that 8 again when we thought we could get Koz cheaper, and basically gained Rivers for ‘free’. 2020 Back at it again. But the crazy series of moves to ultimately land us Bowie and Laurie in consecutive picks 21 and 22 makes it seriously difficult to prise the value apart. First up, pick 43 and Brisbane’s fourth-rounder for MFC pick 53 and a third-rounder (and from here I struggle to follow the trail). Ultimately though, we swap 25, 68 and 69 plus a first with the same club for picks 18 and 19 and a second. That first will be pick 18 before sliding, as we’re the now the AFL champions of the universe. I roughly calculate the loss of points to be the equivalent of pick 29. 2021 More swapsies to get into the first round, and half way through trade week we are still looking to maybe elevate again if the option presents, according to Tim Lamb’s interview with SEN (and I love how he follows in the real straight-up tradition of Mahoney). At this stage we traded out a bunch of picks for some others in return – 33, 45, and a future first for 17, 37, and 49. Let’s put a generous pick 12 floor on the future first, as we are the now the 'AFL champions of the universe' but I’m feeling somewhat magnanimous, and it’s another loss of around 400 points – or the equivalent of pick 43. Conclusion It’s highly likely that some of my inputs are wrong, but on a basic level it looks like we’ve traded ahead at the cost of two picks at 29 and one at 43, with a 62 coming back our way. While a highly dodgy measure, on draft value that deficit adds up to around pick 8. More immediate is the knowledge that Taylor has nailed so many picks in that 30 to 45 range. The answer is pretty clear as to the worth of the strategy – as we just won the flag – but we maybe have given up another ‘Fritsch and Spargo’ on the list to get ahead of the game. Will it come back to bite us? Who cares really, but most probably no.

Anyways, time for me to bow out. The approaching 5,000 posts seems like a reasonable effort over the journey. I know I kicked up a big stink late last year and stormed out of the forums due to a plethora of negative [censored]-stirring posters, only to be dragged back into the fold - but I'm glad that it happened and I got to experience a flag with you all, with a special shout-out to some of my favourite members who have held their nerve over the past four years, as well as those who I have been lucky enough to meet in person, thanks to Demonland (so much appreciation), and those who have reached out online for various reasons over the course (and of course you all know who you are). I will probably stalk a bit until I can fully break the D-land habit. But best of luck to everyone though - please be nice to each other and you're welcome contact me at [email protected] for any reason. And long live the Dees!

So who else should we add to our list? A pick 35, and maybe 45 and 55, and then possibly a couple of rookies (could be either of our NGA/Father-son prospects in either intake, or not at all). Then comes the supplemental period, waiting for someone better than Dunstan to get cut post-drafts? You can still invest mid-rotation time into Sparrow and Jordon, or make them fight for senior spots while we try to snag another flag with more mature players. Those kids will earn a gig in the team on merit, compelled to get better. We're not in a youth development 'get-games-into-them' phase anymore, and the talent pipeline looks pretty good for a recent premiership team. We have seven spots to fill: take the best of the delisted free agents now, while they are still available.

Also, for those who haven't opened the recent interview-article on SEN and sitting here pondering Dunstan's motivations as to senior playing minutes vs success etc, this is what he personally had to say (after noting that he would be reasonably content to walk away from the game rather than continue at the Saints); “For me it’s just about being in a happy environment where you feel valued as a player and as a person, and just feel a part of something would be the biggest thing . . . I wouldn’t put any limitations on it, I’d be happy to go anywhere. I’m really keen to try and go somewhere else and get a bit of a new lease on life.” A caveat: he did also agree that Essendon could be a potentially suitable destination, so some psych testing wouldn't be out of order. Otherwise, if we do want him for cheap, I think we will get it over the line. On the surface at least, the MFC is definitely a happy environment at present, with all our players made to feel valuable and a "part of something".

All this tedious think-bucketing. We have a couple of NGA/Father-son prospects and very few draft cookies (just three in the mid-30s to 50s), with little apparent prospect of trading up - while having to fill at least seven list spots and counting, including those vacated by hardened midfield bodies in Nat Jones and AVB. Dunstan as a delisted free agent seems a no-brainer - let him worry about breaking into the team, and who cares about whether he supposedly 'stalls' the development of Jordon and co. We are smack-bang in the opening phase of a premiership window. We might add a couple rookies, but the delisted F/A list isn't going to get any better.

I got to a couple Nightcliff games earlier this year (unaware that we had an NGA prospect running around), but nothing really stood out. A kid against men though.

A round one home game and flag unfurling is almost a guaranteed massive crowd (Covid or any other major calamities withstanding). No need to fixture a blockbuster. Hawthorn will do. (An easy first-up kill would be nice too, but yeah . . .)

Should relocate the club to Adelaide for a year. Being in Perth seemed to work.

This guy could be a coach in his own right. I’ve said it before – pay him what he wants and he can work half-time. We now live in a Zoom era, and it’s a half an hour $50 flight from Adelaide to Melbourne. It doesn’t impact our soft-cap and keeping his IP off our opposition is worth the investment alone. It feels so good having the confidence that we will run out any game. How can we keep Burgo?

I've always though of Ben Brown as a goofy labrador. Pickett then is our Jack Russel. Endlessly running to where ball-carrier is in the small hope he will get a bite.

Can finally read the 'The Great Deepression'. Been sitting in my poor mum's house for the past five years, and survived her Marie Kondo phase. Thanks @Supermercado.

Love the composition of this one:

The David Attenborough-themed assessment of the last minute of the third quarter: Petracca a bull with the finesse of a gazelle. Evolution! Sparrow (!) gave some deer antlers/devil horns after his goal. Cheeky monkey. Tomald wrestling with Cordy like a moose on heat. Luke Jackson. Our fine young stallion. Jack Viney. Just an animal. Any animal. Clarry. An annoying and insistent Red Heeler. English and Treloar looking like confused llamas. In summary:

I keep thinking what life would be like if the reverse had happened. Poor bastards. A real sniff of hope snuffed out in an instant. Shell-shocked is the only term. The 2016 flag obviously makes it bearable. But they ran into a juggernaut the same way we did in 2000 and 1988. I hope our fans are gracious enough not to hang [censored] on them. And in general, yes, they have a decent supporter-group from my experience.

From the available footage, not impressed with Gerra at all. Gone completely missing every time the Google search heats up.

The suggestion of him going back to Adelaide has been floating around for a while now. Then a poster said we could lose a couple fringe-22 players (not of the 2019 crop) in our pursuit of Cerra. But letting him go would be a big mistake in my opinion.

Only people named Bailey will get to play in the AFL in future years.

It seems you just talked over yourself Bizkit . . .

Really reluctant to lose Sparrow now. This kid will be a gun.

Not at all stifling, but I could probably survive without a t-shirt for a couple of hours. If it gets cold I have a blue jumper on stand-by. Wearing the club colours hasn't at all served me well in the past.

Thanks heaps Wiz. I'm assuming now that I can at least watch it on my phone. Maybe you can also help with my other dilemma? Just moved into a new place and don't have a washing machine yet. Due to being busy, have let the clothes pile up a bit this past week, so all that I have left now is one t-shirt. It's in our red & blue, but has some unfortunate white stripes on it as well. A) Should I burn it and go directly to the shops for a replacement? B) Take it off and just be half-naked and bare-chested for the game? C) Hand-wash some clothes now and maybe deal with being a bit damp and smelly? or D) stop being superstitious and just get on with life and enjoy our grand final win?

Thanks sue. But I don't trust that advice at all. Everything I've read is about the restrictions. Surely there would be other people in my boat without a TV and laptop alone, and they would cater some information in that direction?

can you tell me more Wiz?