WheeloRatings

The figures I posted exclude rushed behinds, so it's purely shots at goal.

Yes, I'm a long-time Dees fan. I pretty much just post here and on Twitter.

I have Petracca third in my Brownlow Medal predictions, on 18.2 votes.

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2023 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Christian Petracca 69 12 15 Clayton Oliver 40 9 10 Jack Viney 35 5 14 Jake Lever 17 4 14 Steven May 16 3 13 Max Gawn 15 5 12 Brodie Grundy 12 2 15 Kysaiah Pickett 12 2 13 Ed Langdon 10 2 15 Angus Brayshaw 7 2 15 Kade Chandler 6 2 15 Trent Rivers 6 1 15 Lachie Hunter 5 3 14 Christian Salem 4 1 6 Michael Hibberd 4 1 9 Bayley Fritsch 2 1 14 Tom McDonald 2 1 6 Jake Bowey 1 1 13 Round-by-round votes Votes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 Christian Petracca 69 5 • 7 9 1 1 10 • 10 • 8 10 1 5 2 Clayton Oliver 40 2 1 9 8 • 2 7 7 2 2 Jack Viney 35 • • • • 6 • • 7 • • • 10 3 9 Jake Lever 17 9 2 • • • • • • • • 5 • 1 • Steven May 16 • • • • • • 1 • • 8 7 • • Max Gawn 15 5 • 3 • 3 • • 2 • 2 • • Brodie Grundy 12 • • 6 6 • • • • • • • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 12 9 • • • 3 • • • • • • • • Ed Langdon 10 • • 6 • • • • • • • • 4 • • • Angus Brayshaw 7 • • • • • • 5 • • • 2 • • • • Kade Chandler 6 • • 1 • • • 5 • • • • • • • • Trent Rivers 6 • • • • • • • • 6 • • • • • • Lachie Hunter 5 • • 1 • • • • • • 2 • • • 2 Christian Salem 4 • • • 4 • • Michael Hibberd 4 • • 4 • • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 2 • • • • • • • • • • • 2 • • Tom McDonald 2 • • 2 • • • Jake Bowey 1 • • • • • • • • • • • • 1

Of all the teams that have had 70+ inside 50s since 1998, yesterday was the outright lowest goals scored. Previous lowest was 6 goals. Conditions probably worse than most other 70+ inside 50 games, but still! I only went back to 2012 for inside 50 conversion, but North Melbourne scored 1 goal from 34 inside 50s against Geelong!

Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney (Round 16, 2023) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231606 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 62.9 66.4 -3.5 Kicking Efficiency 50.0 56.8 -6.8 Metres Gained 6679 6582 +97 Inside 50s 73 46 +27 Shots At Goal 26 12 +14 Shots Per Inside 50 35.6 26.1 +9.5 Contested Possessions 187 143 +44 Ground Ball Gets 133 108 +25 Intercepts 113 108 +5 Intercept Marks 19 12 +7 Centre Clearances 14 2 +12 Stoppage Clearances 33 26 +7 Contested Marks 6 4 +2 Marks Inside 50 5 3 +2 Hitouts 34 24 +10 Hitouts To Advantage 8 9 -1 Tackles 57 72 -15 Tackles Inside 50 17 5 +12 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 11.1 +17.5 Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 182 162 2 192 182 3 173 225 4 196 181 Match 186 187 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average* Jack Viney 26 65 53.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 28 64 50.1 Angus Brayshaw 23 52 28.3 Christian Petracca 21 47 49.8 Kysaiah Pickett 23 47 42.1 James Harmes 24 47 36.3 Joel Smith 20 43 27.8 Christian Salem 13 31 31.7 Lachie Hunter 15 30 24.0 Tom Sparrow 13 28 44.1 Kade Chandler 15 28 32.3 Ed Langdon 13 28 28.2 Brodie Grundy 14 28 26.9 Jake Melksham 13 27 15.0 Trent Rivers 8 22 24.0 Jake Lever 13 22 13.3 Harrison Petty 8 19 20.9 Ben Brown 8 19 10.8 Max Gawn 8 17 22.1 Jake Bowey 8 14 20.5 Steven May 5 13 14.1 Judd McVee 7 12 18.9 Bayley Fritsch 0 0 19.0 * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player. Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 61% 39% 2 57% 43% 3 63% 37% 4 52% 48% Match 60% 40% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Category For Against Diff G B T G B T Kick-in 0 0 0 0 1 1 -1 Centre Bounce 1 0 6 0 0 0 +6 Stoppage (Other) 1 6 12 1 0 6 +6 Turnover 3 9 27 6 4 40 -13 Category For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in 0 2.9 1 2.7 Centre Bounce 6 10.7 0 7.1 Stoppage (Other) 12 21.9 6 21.7 Turnover 27 54.1 39 39.3 Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Greater Western Sydney. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in D50 0 2.9 1 2.7 Centre Bounce Centre 6 10.7 0 7.1 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.4 0 2.1 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 2.8 0 0.9 Stoppage (Other) Wing 3 10.7 6 6.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 8 7.9 0 12.0 Turnover D50 1 10.3 7 5.5 Turnover Centre 0 8.2 0 5.4 Turnover Wing 14 29.0 26 20.3 Turnover F50 12 6.7 6 8.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season D50 1 13.6 8 10.3 Centre 7 21.7 0 13.4 Wing 17 39.7 32 26.9 F50 20 14.6 6 20.1 Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season 11 33.5 15 23.5 Shots at goal Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 17 2 10 22 11.8 Greater Western Sydney 6 3 3 21 50.0 Set Position Melbourne 9 3 4 22 33.3 Greater Western Sydney 6 4 1 25 66.7 Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 % Christian Petracca 12 75 66.2 74.6 Angus Brayshaw 12 75 18.5 16.0 Jack Viney 11 69 68.5 74.6 Max Gawn 9 56 47.5 65.5 Tom Sparrow 8 50 47.8 32.2 Brodie Grundy 7 44 56.6 83.7 James Harmes 3 19 27.8 14.6 Trent Rivers 2 12 4.8 0.0 Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 12.2 1.3 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 3.6 3.5 Harrison Petty 0 0 1.1 0.0 Clayton Oliver 82.8 86.5 James Jordon 19.0 0.2 Tom McDonald 5.4 0.0 Jacob van Rooyen 5.3 Josh Schache 0.0 13.8 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 % Max Gawn 48 56 44.1 57.8 Brodie Grundy 34 40 49.8 77.4 Ben Brown 3 4 3.7 3.6 Harrison Petty 0 0 2.5 0.0 Steven May 0 0 0.1 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1 Jacob van Rooyen 9.6 Tom McDonald 8.9 7.0 Josh Schache 6.7 13.4 Clayton Oliver 0.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2023) To Adv. % (2022) Max Gawn 48 17 6 31.6 33.6 Brodie Grundy 34 16 2 31.8 30.2 Ben Brown 3 1 0 0.0 14.3 Harrison Petty 0 0 0 22.2 Tom McDonald 25.0 33.3 Jacob van Rooyen 16.7 Josh Schache 33.3 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Kieren Briggs 58 20 8 Lachlan Keeffe 27 4 1 Expected score from Champion Data 77 - 43

Accuracy from round 12-16 Team Shots Goals Behinds No Score Accuracy Melbourne 104 29 51 24 27.9 Gold Coast 103 43 41 19 41.7 Fremantle 93 40 23 30 43.0 Carlton 107 47 36 24 43.9 St Kilda 97 43 29 25 44.3 Richmond 103 48 35 20 46.6 Brisbane 120 56 40 24 46.7 Geelong 92 44 28 20 47.8 Sydney 121 58 49 14 47.9 Essendon 98 48 33 17 49.0 Hawthorn 83 41 23 19 49.4 Western Bulldogs 107 54 37 16 50.5 Collingwood 112 57 32 23 50.9 Greater Western Sydney 103 53 33 17 51.5 West Coast 64 33 16 15 51.6 Adelaide 136 72 42 22 52.9 Port Adelaide 123 66 38 19 53.7 North Melbourne 86 50 23 13 58.1 Player Shots Goals Behinds No Score Accuracy Kade Chandler 7 0 7 0 0.0 Trent Rivers 4 0 2 2 0.0 Lachie Hunter 2 0 2 0 0.0 Tom Sparrow 2 0 2 0 0.0 Ben Brown 1 0 1 0 0.0 Christian Petracca 16 2 8 6 12.5 Jack Viney 5 1 2 2 20.0 Max Gawn 5 1 2 2 20.0 Kysaiah Pickett 16 4 7 5 25.0 Alex Neal-Bullen 6 2 2 2 33.3 Charlie Spargo 3 1 2 0 33.3 Ed Langdon 3 1 1 1 33.3 Bayley Fritsch 15 7 8 0 46.7 Joel Smith 6 3 3 0 50.0 Brodie Grundy 4 2 1 1 50.0 Jake Bowey 2 1 1 0 50.0 Jake Melksham 2 1 0 1 50.0 Jacob van Rooyen 5 3 0 2 60.0

Thanks @titan_uranus. It's a similar profile to 2022 as well - the third tweet in the thread looks at non-premiers with the most premiership metrics and Melbourne ranked top 6 in 18 metrics in 2022. It's not a guarantee of success, but you're unlikely to win the premiership if you have too many holes in these areas of your game.

Please forgive the misspelling of opposition! 😕

@Engorged Onion I also recommend the ESPN Footy Podcast, with Christian from Champion Data. Incidentally, they responded to a question of mine on the podcast this week regarding expected scores for Melbourne's 186 point loss and how it compared to West Coast's loss on the weekend, but unfortunately they only have expected scores since 2013!

SEN. You can listen to it on the SEN Sports day podcast, and specifically the "Full On Footy Analysis with Daniel Hoyne". In relation to the first point, I have posted the updated "premiership metrics" for 2023. Melbourne currently rank in the top 6 in 18 of 19 of these metrics. The last 11 premiers all ranked in the top 6 in at least 14 of these 19 categories.

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2023 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Christian Petracca 67 11 14 Clayton Oliver 40 9 10 Jack Viney 26 4 13 Jake Lever 17 4 13 Steven May 16 3 12 Max Gawn 15 5 11 Brodie Grundy 12 2 14 Kysaiah Pickett 12 2 12 Ed Langdon 10 2 14 Angus Brayshaw 7 2 14 Kade Chandler 6 2 14 Trent Rivers 6 1 14 Christian Salem 4 1 5 Michael Hibberd 4 1 9 Lachie Hunter 3 2 13 Bayley Fritsch 2 1 13 Tom McDonald 2 1 6 Round-by-round votes Votes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 Christian Petracca 67 5 • 7 9 1 1 10 • 10 • 8 10 1 5 Clayton Oliver 40 2 1 9 8 • 2 7 7 2 2 Jack Viney 26 • • • • 6 • • 7 • • • 10 3 Jake Lever 17 9 2 • • • • • • • • 5 • 1 Steven May 16 • • • • • • 1 • • 8 7 • Max Gawn 15 5 • 3 • 3 • • 2 • 2 • Brodie Grundy 12 • • 6 6 • • • • • • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 12 9 • • • 3 • • • • • • • Ed Langdon 10 • • 6 • • • • • • • • 4 • • Angus Brayshaw 7 • • • • • • 5 • • • 2 • • • Kade Chandler 6 • • 1 • • • 5 • • • • • • • Trent Rivers 6 • • • • • • • • 6 • • • • • Christian Salem 4 • • • 4 • Michael Hibberd 4 • • 4 • • • • • • Lachie Hunter 3 • • 1 • • • • • • 2 • • • Bayley Fritsch 2 • • • • • • • • • • • 2 • Tom McDonald 2 • • 2 • • •

Thanks djr. No, unfortunately that type of information is not available in the data I have access to.

The stats I posted were scores from defensive 50 and corridor (centre square extended to the two 50m arcs), not defensive half. When I look at the stats by half instead, I also get 33 points to 4. Here is the breakdown by half and region. Half Region For Against Defensive Centre 1 12 Defensive D50 1 19 Defensive Wing 2 2 Forward Centre 1 8 Forward F50 13 16 Forward Wing 45 21 I should note that there may be times when my figures for location of scoring chains won't align exactly with the official stats.

Thanks binman, I'm more than happy to assist where I can. If it's information I have direct access to, it may not require much effort to incorporate into these updates. And I'm glad you like the layout!

I have expanded the range of information included in the stats files updates, which now include Key Team Stats, pressure for all players (including their season average), and scores from the region where chains started. All except the data sourced from the Herald Sun has now been automated, so let me know if additional information can be included or if anything is unclear. Looking at the score sources for last night - Geelong scored 19 points to 1 from chains starting in defensive 50 (13-1 from turnovers), and 20 points to 2 from chains starting in the centre/corridor (18-1 from turnovers). A total of 39 points to 3 - Melbourne average 37.3 points to 24.9 from these locations this season. Melbourne concede 5.8 points on average from turnovers in the centre and 5.4 points from turnovers in our opponents' defensive 50.

Melbourne v Geelong (Round 15, 2023) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20231501 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.6 61.7 +4.9 Kicking Efficiency 58.5 53.2 +5.3 Metres Gained 6206 6104 +102 Inside 50s 52 53 -1 Shots At Goal 22 26 -4 Shots Per Inside 50 42.3 49.1 -6.7 Contested Possessions 160 149 +11 Ground Ball Gets 106 104 +2 Intercepts 91 96 -5 Intercept Marks 23 19 +4 Centre Clearances 9 11 -2 Stoppage Clearances 38 24 +14 Contested Marks 10 12 -2 Marks Inside 50 8 12 -4 Hitouts 47 31 +16 Hitouts To Advantage 14 4 +10 Tackles 75 70 +5 Tackles Inside 50 19 8 +11 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 5.6 +14.4 Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 183 206 2 224 175 3 214 197 4 163 204 Match 196 196 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average* Christian Petracca 24 62 50.0 Jack Viney 23 54 52.8 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 51 49.1 Ed Langdon 26 50 28.2 Angus Brayshaw 24 50 26.6 Kysaiah Pickett 18 44 41.7 Christian Salem 20 39 31.8 Kade Chandler 17 37 32.7 Bayley Fritsch 15 37 20.4 Tom Sparrow 15 33 45.3 Lachie Hunter 14 32 23.5 Joel Smith 12 31 22.7 James Jordon 13 30 18.7 Trent Rivers 13 28 24.1 Judd McVee 12 26 19.4 Max Gawn 9 23 22.5 Jacob van Rooyen 10 22 24.8 Steven May 8 20 14.2 Harrison Petty 7 18 21.2 Michael Hibberd 6 16 12.2 Brodie Grundy 5 11 26.9 Charlie Spargo 4 9 23.9 Jake Lever 4 7 12.6 * Pressure points for rounds 4 and 6 have not been able to be sourced from the Herald Sun. Pressure points for these matches have been estimated from the number of pressure acts for each player. Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 42% 58% 2 67% 33% 3 50% 50% 4 50% 50% Match 55% 45% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarterly values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Score sources highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Category For Against Diff G B T G B T Kick-in 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0 Centre Bounce 0 1 1 0 2 2 -1 Stoppage (Other) 4 6 30 3 1 19 +11 Turnover 4 8 32 8 9 57 -25 Category For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in 0 3.1 0 2.8 Centre Bounce 1 11.1 2 7.6 Stoppage (Other) 30 22.6 19 22.8 Turnover 32 56.1 57 39.3 Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season Kick-in D50 0 3.1 0 2.8 Centre Bounce Centre 1 11.1 2 7.6 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.4 6 2.3 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.9 0 1.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 19 11.3 7 6.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 11 7.9 6 12.9 Turnover D50 1 10.9 13 5.4 Turnover Centre 1 8.8 18 5.8 Turnover Wing 28 30.1 16 19.9 Turnover F50 2 6.3 10 8.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season Centre 2 22.8 20 14.4 D50 1 14.5 19 10.5 F50 13 14.2 16 21.1 Wing 47 41.4 23 26.5 Shots at goal Team Shots G B T Acc. General Play Melbourne 14 4 8 32 28.6 Geelong 12 5 6 36 41.7 Set Position Melbourne 8 4 2 26 50.0 Geelong 14 6 4 40 42.9 Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2023 % 2022 % Jack Viney 20 87 68.5 74.6 Christian Petracca 20 87 65.9 74.6 Max Gawn 15 65 47.0 65.5 Angus Brayshaw 13 57 16.1 16.0 Tom Sparrow 12 52 47.8 32.2 Brodie Grundy 8 35 57.1 83.7 James Jordon 3 13 19.0 0.2 Trent Rivers 1 4 4.5 0.0 Kysaiah Pickett 0 0 12.9 1.3 Jacob van Rooyen 0 0 5.3 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 3.7 3.5 Harrison Petty 0 0 1.2 0.0 Clayton Oliver 82.8 86.5 James Harmes 28.7 14.6 Tom McDonald 5.4 0.0 Josh Schache 0.0 13.8 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2023 % 2022 % Max Gawn 48 45 43.1 57.8 Brodie Grundy 42 40 50.5 77.4 Jacob van Rooyen 15 14 9.6 Steven May 1 1 0.1 0.0 Harrison Petty 0 0 2.7 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.1 0.1 Tom McDonald 8.9 7.0 Josh Schache 6.7 13.4 Ben Brown 3.8 3.6 Clayton Oliver 0.0 0.0 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2023) To Adv. % (2022) Max Gawn 48 23 8 31.4 33.6 Brodie Grundy 42 19 5 32.8 30.2 Jacob van Rooyen 15 5 1 16.7 Harrison Petty 0 0 0 22.2 Tom McDonald 25.0 33.3 Ben Brown 0.0 14.3 Josh Schache 33.3 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Rhys Stanley 85 26 3 Mark Blicavs 12 3 1 Tom Hawkins 9 2 0

Geelong is known for late changes so it could still change again!

Sorry, unfortunately my model flipped to Geelong by 1.2 points following team announcements! It will update again once subs are announced.

@Lord Travis the qualification of a minimum of 30 shots means only three Melbourne players qualify (Fritsch, Pickett and Petracca). Here is the accuracy of Melbourne players with a minimum of 10 shots this season: Tom McDonald - 72.73% (8 goals, 11 shots) Charlie Spargo - 71.43% (10 goals, 14 shots) Jacob van Rooyen - 69.57% (16 goals, 23 shots) Ben Brown - 69.23% (9 goals, 13 shots) Brodie Grundy - 60.00% (9 goals, 15 shots) Kade Chandler - 57.69% (15 goals, 26 shots) Jack Viney - 54.55% (6 goals, 11 shots) Alex Neal-Bullen - 52.63% (10 goals, 19 shots) Bayley Fritsch - 51.92% (27 goals, 52 shots) Kysaiah Pickett - 47.50% (19 goals, 40 shots) Max Gawn - 43.75% (7 goals, 16 shots) Christian Petracca - 28.21% (11 goals, 39 shots) Ed Langdon - 18.18% (2 goals, 11 shots)

The 'Current Rating' is weighted toward more recent results, so a team could be rated higher if they in better form. If you look at the following page of my site, you will see a 'Current Rating' section and an 'Overall Season Rating' section in the table. https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_ratings.html The overall season rating treats all matches equally. Melbourne is rated second overall, behind Collingwood, on the overall season defensive rating but first on the current defensive rating. St Kilda drops from third overall defensively to fourth currently as their form was better at the start of the season. Teams also inherit a proportion of their rating from the end of the prior season, so early season ratings will be impacted by the prior year. This wouldn't have much of an effect this far into the season. Secondly, the ratings are not based on actual team scores. They are based on a weighted average of the team scores and what teams would have scored had they kicked at an expected accuracy, and weighted more towards the latter. So when Melbourne kick 8.18, their score is adjusted (increased) to reflect the below average accuracy and to better reflect their dominance. As background information, the model is optimised for the prediction of matches. Specifically, it is optimised to minimise the mean absolute error in predicted margins. Applying a weighted average in this manner performs better than using actual team scores or just using scoring shots. Lastly, the ratings also take into account estimated opponent strength and estimated venue advantage/disadvantage.

Players polling coaches votes in a given match (2006-): 5 players: 227 times 6 players: 1215 7 players: 1349 8 players: 488 9 players: 68 10 players: 3 Matches with 10 players polling coaches votes: 2007, Round 13, Collingwood v Hawthorn (Link) 2016, Round 17, Adelaide v Collingwood (Link) 2022, Round 22, Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney (Link)

Yes, that is something I'm looking at and will try to incorporate it into the Stats Files update in the future.

Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Darcy Cameron 60 13 1 Mason Cox 24 12 3