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WheeloRatings

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  1. With all the stats that are tracked in an AFL game, you seriously think that expected scores is the worst? It says a lot more about a match than most other stats in isolation. No one actually thinks they won a match because they won on expected scores only.
  2. Here is my model's expected scores ladder, where I calculate the win probability for each match based on expected scores, rather than a binary win/loss. I think it's rather pointless simply reporting whether a team won a match on expected scores. The expected margin is more insightful. And using win probability is better for an expected scores ladder. I'm not going to argue that this is what the ladder "should be" or anything like that, but it does provide a sense for which teams might have been lucky/unlucky with their goal kicking or opposition goal kicking.
  3. Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 36 7 8 Christian Petracca 25 3 8 Jake Lever 17 3 8 Steven May 15 4 7 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 8 Clayton Oliver 9 1 8 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 8 Kysaiah Pickett 8 2 6 Jack Viney 5 1 8 Judd McVee 5 1 8 Trent Rivers 5 2 8 Daniel Turner 4 1 2 Ed Langdon 2 1 8 Kade Chandler 2 1 8 Harrison Petty 1 1 6 Jack Billings 1 1 8 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 Max Gawn 36 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 3 Christian Petracca 25 • 5 10 • 10 • • • Jake Lever 17 • • • • 3 • 9 5 Steven May 15 • 7 • 3 • 2 3 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 • • • • Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 8 • 4 • • • 4 Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 • Daniel Turner 4 4 • Ed Langdon 2 • • • • • • 2 • Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • • Harrison Petty 1 • • • • • 1 Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • • •
  4. Thanks @binman I appreciate it. I'm glad you like the new team lists page. I have just added to that page the players' matches and goals for the current season. I can't source official stats on post-clearance contested possessions. I have just revisited the play-by-play dataset to see if I can calculate the post-clearance contested possessions. Clearances are not tagged in the dataset so I have attempted to determine clearances from disposals which "clear the stoppage area" as per the CD definition. From what Christian from CD has previously said on the ESPN Footy Podcast, the "stoppage area" is determined by the eye of the CD callers, so anything I calculate will only be approximate. The other issue is the limited publicly available data that I can use to validate my estimates. I have found a handful of articles (e.g. link) and match timelines which refer to post-clearance contested possessions and my estimates seem to be in the ballpark, so these numbers should be indicative. Estimated POST-clearance contested possession differential, 2021-2024 (after 7 matches of R8 2024) Team 2021 2022 2023 2024 Carlton −3.5 +8.1 +4.7 +8.5 Hawthorn −4.6 −3.1 +1.1 +6.6 West Coast −1.7 −9.9 −9.0 +5.8 Greater Western Sydney +1.4 −3.4 +1.6 +5.4 Western Bulldogs +4.6 +2.0 +1.0 +4.6 Gold Coast −4.1 −1.7 −1.2 +2.6 Collingwood −0.4 −1.9 +0.1 +2.0 Essendon −1.3 −1.4 −2.0 +1.8 Geelong +6.7 +5.3 +2.5 +1.5 Adelaide −3.2 +1.3 +2.2 +1.4 Brisbane +4.2 +3.3 +1.9 +1.3 Melbourne +9.4 +9.6 +6.0 −0.5 Richmond −2.7 −0.2 −0.2 −2.4 St Kilda +0.5 +0.5 +2.8 −4.0 Fremantle −2.0 −2.3 −2.2 −4.5 Sydney −0.7 +1.7 −0.1 −5.8 Port Adelaide +2.8 +0.8 −2.3 −6.5 North Melbourne −9.4 −10.5 −8.5 −15.8 Estimated PRE-clearance contested possession differential, 2021-2024 (after 7 matches of R8 2024) Team 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fremantle +5.6 +3.2 −1.9 +8.2 Gold Coast −5.7 +4.8 +3.6 +5.1 Port Adelaide +2.5 −0.5 −2.1 +4.9 Brisbane −1.3 −0.1 +2.5 +3.0 Essendon −3.9 −2.1 −0.8 +2.8 Melbourne +2.6 +4.9 +4.3 +2.8 Carlton −3.7 +4.8 +4.5 +2.6 Sydney −1.1 −0.4 −4.2 +2.6 St Kilda −1.3 +2.1 +0.2 +2.4 North Melbourne −1.5 +1.5 −0.8 −1.1 Hawthorn −2.2 −6.0 +1.7 −1.1 Adelaide +1.9 −0.3 −0.3 −2.0 Greater Western Sydney +2.6 −2.1 −0.2 −3.2 Collingwood +0.3 −7.6 +0.5 −3.5 West Coast +1.5 −7.7 −9.3 −4.0 Western Bulldogs +3.5 +6.0 +5.7 −4.0 Richmond −5.0 −2.4 −1.8 −7.0 Geelong +3.6 +2.0 −2.5 −8.0
  5. Melbourne v Geelong (Round 8, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240805 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 73.6 69.8 +3.8 Kicking Efficiency 70.5 61.6 +8.9 Metres Gained 6294 6207 +87 Inside 50s 51 50 +1 Shots At Goal 27 24 +3 Shots Per Inside 50 52.9 48.0 +4.9 Contested Possessions 127 124 +3 Ground Ball Gets 76 88 -12 Intercepts 79 76 +3 Intercept Marks 13 15 -2 Centre Clearances 12 8 +4 Stoppage Clearances 15 18 -3 Contested Marks 16 8 +8 Marks Inside 50 13 13 +0 Hitouts 24 27 -3 Hitouts To Advantage 5 10 -5 Tackles 55 51 +4 Tackles Inside 50 13 2 +11 Def One On One Loss % 25.0 28.6 -3.6 Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 83.0 74 1 88% +21.2 +8 Geelong 61.8 66 1 12% +13.2 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 27 10.13.73 37.0% 82.0 −9.0 3.04 −0.33 Geelong 24 9.11.65 37.5% 60.8 +4.2 2.53 +0.17 General Play Melbourne 13 3.7.25 23.1% 37.3 −12.3 2.87 −0.95 Geelong 9 5.3.33 55.6% 21.7 +11.3 2.41 +1.26 Set Position Melbourne 14 7.6.48 50.0% 44.7 +3.3 3.19 +0.24 Geelong 15 4.8.32 26.7% 39.2 −7.2 2.61 −0.48 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 183 173 2 161 158 3 171 165 4 193 181 Match 176 170 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 32 58 41.0 Jack Viney 25 57 57.8 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 55 49.5 Caleb Windsor 17 48 34.2 Kade Chandler 19 47 46.8 Kysaiah Pickett 24 45 41.2 Tom Sparrow 22 42 51.9 Christian Petracca 16 37 38.5 Harrison Petty 16 30 25.2 Jack Billings 11 27 26.0 Blake Howes 12 26 20.5 Max Gawn 10 22 28.0 Tom McDonald 12 22 23.7 Trent Rivers 13 22 22.1 Jake Lever 10 20 16.5 Judd McVee 9 17 15.6 Daniel Turner 8 16 11.0 Ed Langdon 8 14 31.9 Jacob van Rooyen 5 11 15.5 Bayley Fritsch 6 9 13.9 Taj Woewodin 4 7 14.8 Steven May 5 7 10.1 Bailey Laurie 2 2 7.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 39% 61% 2 56% 44% 3 61% 39% 4 53% 47% Match 53% 47% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.2.2 0.0.0 +2 Centre Bounce 1.3.9 0.1.1 +8 Stoppage (Other) 2.2.14 4.4.28 -14 Turnover 7.7.49 5.7.37 +12 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 2 3.8 0 2.8 Centre Bounce 9 11.1 1 5.4 Stoppage (Other) 14 23.6 28 18.1 Turnover 49 43.9 37 40.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 9 11.1 1 5.4 Kick-in D50 2 3.8 0 2.8 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.6 18 2.2 Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 1.9 0 1.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 13.5 9 9.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 6.6 1 4.8 Turnover D50 27 8.9 12 6.6 Turnover Centre 12 6.8 6 4.5 Turnover Wing 3 19.0 16 24.4 Turnover F50 7 9.2 3 4.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 29 14.2 30 11.6 Centre 27 19.8 7 11.4 Wing 10 32.5 25 34.0 F50 8 15.9 4 9.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 29 14.2 30 11.6 Defensive midfield 7 19.1 14 13.1 Centre bounce 9 11.1 1 5.4 Attacking midfield 21 22.0 17 26.9 Forward 50 8 15.9 4 9.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 36 33.4 44 24.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 18 78% 85.6% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 18 78% 69.7% 81.4% Christian Petracca 17 74% 63.1% 61.1% Jack Viney 16 70% 72.8% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 10 43% 43.1% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 8 35% 29.3% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 5 22% 12.8% 7.6% Trent Rivers 0 0% 4.1% 3.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 2.1% 2.1% Bailey Laurie 0 0% 1.5% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.7% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Salem 27.2% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 48 71% 82.9% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 15 22% 14.3% 13.1% Harrison Petty 5 7% 1.1% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.0% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 48 20 5 30.1% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 2 0 29.6% 31.1% Harrison Petty 5 2 0 0.0% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Rhys Stanley 48 21 9 Mark Blicavs 13 4 0 Sam De Koning 4 1 1 Tom Hawkins 3 1 0
  6. I'm not 100% sure of the stat they're looking at, but we are 3rd this year for proportion of all points scored from the defensive midfield. Score sources are usually reported as one of (a) points scored, (b) points conceded, or (c) differential, so I would ordinarily assume it would be one of those, but I did find the following article that refers to % of points conceded by zone. So I assume your interpretation is correct in that David King was referring to % of points scored from the defensive midfield zone. https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/29699624/afl-understanding-geelong-incredible-team-defence-their-achilles-heel Average points scored per match, 2024 (including the first two matches in round 8) by zone Team D50 Defensive Midfield Centre Bounce Attack Midfield F50 Total Def Mid % St Kilda 16.0 24.6 8.1 14.9 9.4 73.0 33.7% Gold Coast 11.3 22.6 12.0 20.0 18.9 84.7 26.6% Melbourne 12.1 20.9 11.4 22.1 17.0 83.6 25.0% Hawthorn 11.1 15.1 8.9 22.9 9.7 67.7 22.4% Greater Western Sydney 21.3 23.3 13.1 28.1 21.4 107.3 21.7% Collingwood 9.9 18.6 7.4 35.2 15.4 86.5 21.5% Richmond 16.4 14.9 3.9 21.9 12.6 69.6 21.4% Sydney 20.0 21.4 9.6 35.0 18.0 104.0 20.6% Essendon 13.7 17.0 13.6 23.6 15.0 82.9 20.5% Brisbane 14.4 13.9 8.6 25.1 11.9 73.9 18.8% North Melbourne 13.0 13.1 11.1 22.6 10.7 70.6 18.6% Geelong 20.3 18.3 17.0 24.3 19.1 99.0 18.5% Western Bulldogs 17.9 16.7 12.7 20.3 23.6 91.1 18.3% Fremantle 17.6 13.4 12.4 16.9 18.7 79.0 17.0% Port Adelaide 16.1 14.8 14.5 26.8 17.8 89.9 16.4% Carlton 14.0 15.6 12.1 36.0 19.9 97.6 16.0% Adelaide 20.6 12.4 11.5 17.1 15.8 77.4 16.0% West Coast 15.3 9.6 12.9 20.0 15.1 72.9 13.1% Average points conceded per match, 2024 (including the first two matches in round 8) by zone Opposition D50 Defensive Midfield Centre Bounce Attack Midfield F50 Total Def Mid % Gold Coast 14.1 11.9 8.7 22.7 26.4 83.9 14.1% Sydney 9.9 12.7 9.3 23.7 14.9 70.4 18.1% Melbourne 9.0 13.0 6.0 28.3 10.0 66.3 19.6% Fremantle 12.0 13.4 8.9 20.3 16.1 70.7 19.0% Adelaide 11.0 14.5 11.0 22.5 17.0 76.0 19.1% Port Adelaide 19.1 14.5 9.8 26.5 9.6 79.5 18.2% Geelong 12.0 14.6 10.7 21.6 14.3 73.1 19.9% St Kilda 17.0 15.4 7.9 26.1 15.3 81.7 18.9% West Coast 24.6 16.7 12.9 23.6 20.6 98.3 17.0% Brisbane 14.3 16.9 9.6 22.1 15.6 78.4 21.5% Essendon 18.4 17.3 11.9 23.4 17.4 88.4 19.5% Carlton 17.8 19.8 11.5 20.4 19.5 88.9 22.2% Western Bulldogs 14.7 19.9 13.1 18.7 13.0 79.4 25.0% Greater Western Sydney 11.6 20.1 15.1 18.9 13.0 78.7 25.6% North Melbourne 28.9 20.6 17.6 29.9 26.3 123.1 16.7% Richmond 20.9 20.6 12.4 20.1 18.1 92.1 22.3% Collingwood 15.9 20.6 9.9 32.4 8.6 87.4 23.6% Hawthorn 9.6 22.6 15.1 33.4 16.1 96.9 23.3% I have recently added some score source data to the website (on the match stats and team stats pages), outlined in the following post. cc @binman
  7. Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 33 6 7 Christian Petracca 25 3 7 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 7 Jake Lever 12 2 7 Steven May 12 3 6 Clayton Oliver 9 1 7 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 7 Jack Viney 5 1 7 Judd McVee 5 1 7 Trent Rivers 5 2 7 Daniel Turner 4 1 1 Kysaiah Pickett 4 1 5 Ed Langdon 2 1 7 Kade Chandler 2 1 7 Jack Billings 1 1 7 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 Max Gawn 33 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 Christian Petracca 25 • 5 10 • 10 • • Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 • • • Jake Lever 12 • • • • 3 • 9 Steven May 12 • 7 • 3 • 2 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 Daniel Turner 4 4 Kysaiah Pickett 4 • 4 • • • Ed Langdon 2 • • • • • • 2 Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • •
  8. Melbourne v Richmond (Round 7, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240701 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.7 72.5 -0.9 Kicking Efficiency 68.9 66.3 +2.5 Metres Gained 6255 5717 +538 Inside 50s 50 50 +0 Shots At Goal 26 16 +10 Shots Per Inside 50 52.0 32.0 +20.0 Contested Possessions 136 119 +17 Ground Ball Gets 89 81 +8 Intercepts 69 73 -4 Intercept Marks 22 23 -1 Centre Clearances 8 10 -2 Stoppage Clearances 24 15 +9 Contested Marks 10 7 +3 Marks Inside 50 14 11 +3 Hitouts 27 27 +0 Hitouts To Advantage 12 10 +2 Tackles 52 57 -5 Tackles Inside 50 9 11 -2 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 30.8 -2.2 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 26 13.5.83 50.0% 74.3 +8.7 2.86 +0.34 Richmond 16 5.8.38 31.2% 53.7 −15.7 3.35 −0.98 General Play Melbourne 10 3.2.20 30.0% 26.6 −6.6 2.66 −0.66 Richmond 6 1.4.10 16.7% 16.5 −6.5 2.75 −1.08 Set Position Melbourne 16 10.3.63 62.5% 47.6 +15.4 2.98 +0.96 Richmond 10 4.4.28 40.0% 37.2 −9.2 3.72 −0.92 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 185 173 2 150 181 3 181 168 4 162 162 Match 170 171 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 25 51 57.9 Tom Sparrow 24 44 53.3 Clayton Oliver 21 42 38.6 Ed Langdon 16 41 34.4 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 40 48.7 Christian Petracca 17 33 38.7 Kade Chandler 13 32 46.7 Tom McDonald 12 29 24.0 Harrison Petty 15 28 24.2 Trent Rivers 12 28 22.1 Taj Woewodin 11 27 16.4 Caleb Windsor 12 26 32.3 Jack Billings 10 26 25.9 Kysaiah Pickett 11 25 40.4 Blake Howes 12 22 19.7 Judd McVee 9 22 15.4 Max Gawn 7 18 28.9 Jacob van Rooyen 10 16 16.1 Jake Lever 8 13 16.0 Bayley Fritsch 4 7 14.6 Daniel Turner 3 6 6.0 Steven May 4 5 10.7 Bailey Laurie 3 4 9.5 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 45% 55% 2 58% 42% 3 46% 54% 4 40% 60% Match 46% 54% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.1.1 0.0.0 +1 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 0.1.1 +6 Stoppage (Other) 3.1.19 0.2.2 +17 Turnover 9.4.58 5.9.39 +19 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 1 4.0 0 3.1 Centre Bounce 7 11.4 1 6.0 Stoppage (Other) 19 25.0 2 16.7 Turnover 58 43.1 39 40.4 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 1 4.0 0 3.1 Centre Bounce Centre 7 11.4 1 6.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 1.9 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 7 1.3 0 1.7 Stoppage (Other) Wing 6 14.4 1 9.7 Stoppage (Other) F50 0 7.4 1 5.3 Turnover D50 13 6.3 7 5.9 Turnover Centre 6 6.0 6 4.3 Turnover Wing 21 21.3 23 25.6 Turnover F50 18 9.6 3 4.7 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 20 12.1 7 9.0 Centre 20 18.7 7 12.0 Wing 27 35.7 24 35.3 F50 18 17.0 4 10.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 45 32.1 21 22.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 19 90% 86.6% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 17 81% 68.6% 81.4% Jack Viney 14 67% 73.3% 72.1% Christian Petracca 12 57% 61.6% 61.1% Tom Sparrow 10 48% 43.0% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 9 43% 28.2% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 1 5% 11.6% 7.6% Bailey Laurie 1 5% 2.2% 0.0% Harrison Petty 1 5% 0.8% 0.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 4.7% 3.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 2.3% 2.1% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Salem 27.2% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 60 88% 84.2% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 7 10% 13.5% 13.1% Harrison Petty 1 1% 0.2% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.0% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 60 26 11 30.5% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 7 1 1 32.0% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 1 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Toby Nankervis 37 15 7 Sam Naismith 26 9 3 Mykelti Lefau 6 3 0
  9. Melbourne v Brisbane (Round 5, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240501 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.2 76.1 -4.8 Kicking Efficiency 66.8 75.3 -8.5 Metres Gained 5295 5599 -304 Inside 50s 50 58 -8 Shots At Goal 19 22 -3 Shots Per Inside 50 38.0 37.9 +0.1 Contested Possessions 121 134 -13 Ground Ball Gets 72 93 -21 Intercepts 64 61 +3 Intercept Marks 26 17 +9 Centre Clearances 11 11 +0 Stoppage Clearances 24 33 -9 Contested Marks 14 10 +4 Marks Inside 50 9 12 -3 Hitouts 58 27 +31 Hitouts To Advantage 13 8 +5 Tackles 53 82 -29 Tackles Inside 50 5 15 -10 Def One On One Loss % 30.0 12.5 +17.5 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 19 8.10.58 42.1% 58.0 +0.0 3.05 +0.00 Brisbane 22 12.8.80 54.5% 82.8 −2.8 3.76 −0.13 General Play Melbourne 7 1.6.12 14.3% 16.6 −4.6 2.36 −0.65 Brisbane 11 6.4.40 54.5% 37.1 +2.9 3.38 +0.26 Set Position Melbourne 12 7.4.46 58.3% 41.5 +4.5 3.46 +0.38 Brisbane 11 6.4.40 54.5% 45.6 −5.6 4.15 −0.51 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 199 227 2 160 191 3 151 197 4 164 186 Match 168 201 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Tom Sparrow 30 76 54.8 Jack Viney 30 59 59.0 Ed Langdon 17 45 33.3 Koltyn Tholstrup 17 39 39.0 Clayton Oliver 19 38 38.0 Kade Chandler 20 36 49.2 Alex Neal-Bullen 13 33 50.2 Caleb Windsor 17 30 33.3 Max Gawn 11 28 30.7 Judd McVee 10 27 14.3 Jack Billings 9 26 25.8 Trent Rivers 10 25 21.2 Christian Petracca 12 22 39.7 Taj Woewodin 10 21 13.8 Tom McDonald 8 20 23.0 Harrison Petty 10 18 23.2 Blake Howes 10 18 19.3 Steven May 6 15 11.8 Jake Lever 7 11 16.5 Jacob van Rooyen 5 6 16.2 Ben Brown 2 3 9.0 Bayley Fritsch 1 2 15.8 Christian Salem 0 0 26.8 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 34% 66% 2 51% 49% 3 42% 58% 4 64% 36% Match 46% 54% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 0.1.1 +5 Centre Bounce 1.3.9 1.1.7 +2 Stoppage (Other) 2.3.15 6.4.40 -25 Turnover 4.6.30 5.4.34 -4 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 4.5 1 3.7 Centre Bounce 9 12.2 7 6.8 Stoppage (Other) 15 26.0 40 19.2 Turnover 30 40.7 34 40.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 6 4.5 1 3.7 Centre Bounce Centre 9 12.2 7 6.8 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.2 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 0.3 6 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 12 15.8 24 11.2 Stoppage (Other) F50 2 8.7 10 6.0 Turnover D50 0 5.2 1 5.7 Turnover Centre 2 6.0 1 4.0 Turnover Wing 28 21.3 26 26.0 Turnover F50 0 8.2 6 5.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 6 10.8 2 9.3 Centre 12 18.5 14 12.8 Wing 40 37.2 50 37.2 F50 2 16.8 16 11.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 31 30.0 20 22.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 22 92% 86.1% 64.9% Christian Petracca 18 75% 62.3% 61.1% Jack Viney 16 67% 74.2% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 15 62% 42.4% 44.9% Clayton Oliver 10 42% 66.9% 81.4% Trent Rivers 8 33% 5.3% 3.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 3 12% 2.6% 2.1% Jacob van Rooyen 2 8% 12.6% 7.6% Koltyn Tholstrup 2 8% 8.3% Christian Salem 0 0% 27.2% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Kysaiah Pickett 25.2% 11.2% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 96 90% 83.8% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 11 10% 13.8% 13.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0% 0.0% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 2.0% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 96 51 12 29.2% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 11 7 1 29.2% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Oscar McInerney 87 26 8 Joe Daniher 13 1 0 Darcy Gardiner 2 0 0 Eric Hipwood 5 0 0
  10. Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Christian Petracca 25 3 5 Max Gawn 21 4 5 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 5 Steven May 10 2 4 Clayton Oliver 9 1 5 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 5 Jack Viney 5 1 5 Judd McVee 5 1 5 Kysaiah Pickett 4 1 4 Jake Lever 3 1 5 Kade Chandler 2 1 5 Jack Billings 1 1 5 Trent Rivers 1 1 5 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 Christian Petracca 25 • 5 10 • 10 Max Gawn 21 • 7 2 8 4 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 • Steven May 10 • 7 • 3 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 Kysaiah Pickett 4 • 4 • • Jake Lever 3 • • • • 3 Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • Trent Rivers 1 • • • 1 •
  11. We won stoppage clearances in the last quarter, but lost contested possessions, centre clearances and ground ball gets. 1 2 3 4 Contested Possessions Adelaide 39 29 21 40 Melbourne 34 37 30 30 Diff -5 +8 +9 -10 Centre Clearances Adelaide 3 4 3 2 Melbourne 1 2 4 0 Diff -2 -2 +1 -2 Total Clearances Adelaide 16 10 4 7 Melbourne 9 11 10 11 Diff -7 +1 +6 +4 Ground Ball Gets Adelaide 26 24 12 26 Melbourne 21 24 20 20 Diff -5 +0 +8 -6
  12. Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 4, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240401 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 70.3 72.9 -2.6 Kicking Efficiency 63.9 66.5 -2.7 Metres Gained 5965 5632 +333 Inside 50s 48 54 -6 Shots At Goal 28 25 +3 Shots Per Inside 50 58.3 46.3 +12.0 Contested Possessions 131 129 +2 Ground Ball Gets 85 88 -3 Intercepts 58 54 +4 Intercept Marks 20 9 +11 Centre Clearances 7 12 -5 Stoppage Clearances 34 25 +9 Contested Marks 18 9 +9 Marks Inside 50 10 8 +2 Hitouts 43 44 -1 Hitouts To Advantage 13 4 +9 Tackles 65 58 +7 Tackles Inside 50 14 7 +7 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 37.5 -8.9 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 28 10.15.75 35.7% 82.3 −7.3 2.94 −0.26 Adelaide 25 8.11.59 32.0% 77.5 −18.5 3.10 −0.74 General Play Melbourne 12 2.9.21 16.7% 28.7 −7.7 2.39 −0.64 Adelaide 14 2.9.21 14.3% 39.3 −18.3 2.81 −1.31 Set Position Melbourne 16 8.6.54 50.0% 53.6 +0.4 3.35 +0.03 Adelaide 11 6.2.38 54.5% 38.2 −0.2 3.47 −0.02 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 201 172 2 186 188 3 162 177 4 205 192 Match 190 182 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Kade Chandler 33 79 51.8 Tom Sparrow 33 68 50.6 Alex Neal-Bullen 28 64 53.6 Kysaiah Pickett 27 62 44.2 Jack Viney 22 56 59.0 Christian Petracca 18 42 43.2 Caleb Windsor 17 41 34.0 Max Gawn 13 33 31.2 Ed Langdon 15 29 31.0 Harrison Petty 14 28 25.0 Jacob van Rooyen 10 27 18.2 Christian Salem 11 23 32.2 Jack Billings 9 21 25.8 Clayton Oliver 10 20 38.0 Bayley Fritsch 9 18 18.6 Jake Lever 8 18 17.6 Blake Howes 8 15 19.6 Tom McDonald 4 13 23.8 Taj Woewodin 5 13 11.3 Ben Brown 7 13 10.5 Trent Rivers 6 12 20.4 Judd McVee 6 9 11.8 Steven May 1 1 11.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 29% 71% 2 58% 42% 3 62% 38% 4 44% 56% Match 48% 52% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.2.8 1.1.7 +1 Centre Bounce 0.4.4 1.3.9 -5 Stoppage (Other) 3.5.23 1.6.12 +11 Turnover 6.7.43 5.5.35 +8 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 8 4.2 7 4.2 Centre Bounce 4 12.8 9 6.8 Stoppage (Other) 23 28.2 12 15.0 Turnover 43 42.8 35 42.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Adelaide. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 8 4.2 7 4.2 Centre Bounce Centre 4 12.8 9 6.8 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.4 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 0.2 1 1.2 Stoppage (Other) Wing 13 16.6 1 8.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 9 10.0 10 5.2 Turnover D50 14 6.2 12 6.6 Turnover Centre 13 6.8 8 4.6 Turnover Wing 15 20.0 14 26.0 Turnover F50 1 9.8 1 4.8 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 22 11.8 19 10.8 Centre 18 19.8 18 12.6 Wing 28 36.6 15 34.6 F50 10 19.8 11 10.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Adelaide. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 42 29.8 22 22.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Adelaide. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 19 86% 85.0% 64.9% Jack Viney 17 77% 75.6% 72.1% Clayton Oliver 15 68% 71.7% 81.4% Christian Petracca 15 68% 59.8% 61.1% Tom Sparrow 15 68% 38.6% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 4 18% 25.2% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 3 14% 13.4% 7.6% Christian Salem 0 0% 32.3% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.8% 2.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 0.0% 3.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 86 85% 82.4% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 15 15% 14.6% 13.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0% 0.0% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 2.0% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 86 39 10 30.8% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 4 3 35.3% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Reilly O'Brien 87 39 4 Chris Burgess 10 4 0 Taylor Walker 4 1 0
  13. I'm more concerned with the attitude towards craft beer. "Who wants to support local independent brewers, when you can drink the mass produced rubbish of breweries owned by multinational organisations?!"
  14. Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 17 3 4 Christian Petracca 15 2 4 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 4 Clayton Oliver 9 1 4 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 4 Steven May 7 1 3 Jack Viney 5 1 4 Kysaiah Pickett 4 1 3 Kade Chandler 2 1 4 Jack Billings 1 1 4 Trent Rivers 1 1 4 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 Max Gawn 17 • 7 2 8 Christian Petracca 15 • 5 10 • Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • Steven May 7 • 7 • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • Kysaiah Pickett 4 • 4 • Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • Trent Rivers 1 • • • 1
  15. Melbourne v Port Adelaide (Round 3, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240305 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.7 70.1 -3.4 Kicking Efficiency 61.7 61.6 +0.1 Metres Gained 5797 6045 -248 Inside 50s 45 66 -21 Shots At Goal 22 28 -6 Shots Per Inside 50 48.9 42.4 +6.5 Contested Possessions 140 142 -2 Ground Ball Gets 82 104 -22 Intercepts 63 59 +4 Intercept Marks 17 13 +4 Centre Clearances 11 16 -5 Stoppage Clearances 26 36 -10 Contested Marks 5 9 -4 Marks Inside 50 7 14 -7 Hitouts 55 30 +25 Hitouts To Advantage 19 9 +10 Tackles 57 67 -10 Tackles Inside 50 9 20 -11 Def One On One Loss % 58.3 0.0 +58.3 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 22 15.4.94 68.2% 60.1 +33.9 2.73 +1.54 Port Adelaide 28 13.10.88 46.4% 90.6 −2.6 3.24 −0.09 General Play Melbourne 12 7.2.44 58.3% 30.4 +13.6 2.53 +1.13 Port Adelaide 13 7.5.47 53.8% 38.9 +8.1 3.00 +0.62 Set Position Melbourne 10 8.2.50 80.0% 29.7 +20.3 2.97 +2.03 Port Adelaide 15 6.5.41 40.0% 51.6 −10.6 3.44 −0.71 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 184 198 2 170 164 3 186 187 4 193 203 Match 182 189 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 39 80 59.8 Alex Neal-Bullen 30 66 51.0 Christian Petracca 26 57 43.5 Clayton Oliver 20 45 42.5 Max Gawn 18 41 30.8 Tom Sparrow 16 35 46.2 Kade Chandler 15 31 45.0 Kysaiah Pickett 14 30 38.3 Jack Billings 10 27 27.0 Harrison Petty 11 27 23.5 Ed Langdon 12 26 31.5 Christian Salem 10 24 34.5 Bayley Fritsch 10 23 18.8 Caleb Windsor 11 19 32.2 Blake Howes 9 17 20.8 Trent Rivers 9 15 22.5 Tom McDonald 4 13 27.3 Jake Lever 6 13 17.5 Judd McVee 5 11 12.5 Taj Woewodin 4 11 10.5 Marty Hore 4 8 11.0 Ben Brown 4 5 9.7 Jacob van Rooyen 2 3 16.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 46% 54% 2 43% 57% 3 35% 65% 4 46% 54% Match 44% 56% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 1.0.6 +0 Centre Bounce 1.3.9 2.1.13 -4 Stoppage (Other) 7.1.43 2.7.19 +24 Turnover 6.2.38 8.3.51 -13 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 3.2 6 3.5 Centre Bounce 9 15.0 13 6.2 Stoppage (Other) 43 29.5 19 15.8 Turnover 38 42.8 51 43.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Port Adelaide. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 6 3.2 6 3.5 Centre Bounce Centre 9 15.0 13 6.2 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 1.8 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 3 1.2 Stoppage (Other) Wing 25 17.5 8 10.5 Stoppage (Other) F50 12 10.2 8 4.0 Turnover D50 7 4.2 0 5.2 Turnover Centre 12 5.2 1 3.8 Turnover Wing 13 21.2 37 29.0 Turnover F50 6 12.0 13 5.8 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 19 9.2 6 8.8 Centre 21 20.2 17 11.2 Wing 38 38.8 45 39.5 F50 18 22.2 21 9.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Port Adelaide. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 32 26.8 19 22.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Port Adelaide. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 26 87% 84.8% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 24 80% 72.4% 81.4% Jack Viney 23 77% 75.2% 72.1% Christian Petracca 19 63% 58.1% 61.1% Christian Salem 10 33% 39.0% 0.0% Tom Sparrow 7 23% 32.4% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 7 23% 27.2% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 4 13% 13.3% 7.6% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 1.0% 2.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 0.0% 3.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 98 88% 81.7% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 13 12% 14.6% 13.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0% 0.0% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 2.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Steven May 0.0% 0.0% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 98 50 17 32.2% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 13 5 2 23.1% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Ivan Soldo 86 24 7 Charlie Dixon 13 3 0 Jeremy Finlayson 12 3 2
  16. Melbourne v Hawthorn (Round 2, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240204 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 75.8 74.2 +1.7 Kicking Efficiency 72.8 68.6 +4.2 Metres Gained 5730 5140 +590 Inside 50s 55 42 +13 Shots At Goal 24 16 +8 Shots Per Inside 50 43.6 38.1 +5.5 Contested Possessions 128 116 +12 Ground Ball Gets 84 85 -1 Intercepts 61 61 +0 Intercept Marks 18 12 +6 Centre Clearances 14 5 +9 Stoppage Clearances 21 18 +3 Contested Marks 11 4 +7 Marks Inside 50 14 11 +3 Hitouts 29 30 -1 Hitouts To Advantage 6 3 +3 Tackles 73 50 +23 Tackles Inside 50 3 14 -11 Def One On One Loss % 10.0 33.3 -23.3 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 24 14.7.91 58.3% 76.5 +14.5 3.19 +0.60 Hawthorn 16 5.6.36 31.2% 46.2 −10.2 2.89 −0.64 General Play Melbourne 9 6.2.38 66.7% 27.7 +10.3 3.08 +1.14 Hawthorn 7 0.3.3 0.0% 17.4 −14.4 2.49 −2.06 Set Position Melbourne 15 8.5.53 53.3% 48.8 +4.2 3.25 +0.28 Hawthorn 9 5.3.33 55.6% 28.8 +4.2 3.20 +0.47 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 184 172 2 208 208 3 193 172 4 160 133 Match 189 172 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Kade Chandler 26 55 49.7 Alex Neal-Bullen 23 55 46.0 Tom Sparrow 19 51 50.0 Clayton Oliver 22 50 41.7 Christian Petracca 18 42 39.0 Caleb Windsor 21 41 36.7 Ed Langdon 19 41 33.3 Christian Salem 17 40 38.0 Kysaiah Pickett 21 37 42.5 Jacob van Rooyen 17 37 20.3 Tom McDonald 16 36 34.5 Max Gawn 13 36 27.3 Jack Viney 16 34 53.0 Bayley Fritsch 16 29 17.3 Trent Rivers 9 27 25.0 Jake Lever 11 24 19.0 Blake Howes 9 23 22.0 Judd McVee 11 22 13.0 Harrison Petty 11 20 20.0 Jack Billings 8 14 27.0 Ben Brown 7 13 12.0 Steven May 3 9 14.3 Marty Hore 2 5 12.5 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 66% 34% 2 52% 48% 3 45% 55% 4 53% 47% Match 52% 48% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 1.0.6 +0 Centre Bounce 5.2.32 0.1.1 +31 Stoppage (Other) 4.0.24 0.3.3 +21 Turnover 4.7.31 4.4.28 +3 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 2.3 6 2.7 Centre Bounce 32 17.0 1 4.0 Stoppage (Other) 24 25.0 3 14.7 Turnover 31 44.3 28 41.3 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Hawthorn. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 6 2.3 6 2.7 Centre Bounce Centre 32 17.0 1 4.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 0.3 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 1 0.7 Stoppage (Other) Wing 18 15.0 2 11.3 Stoppage (Other) F50 6 9.7 0 2.7 Turnover D50 2 3.3 7 7.0 Turnover Centre 2 3.0 0 4.7 Turnover Wing 21 24.0 21 26.3 Turnover F50 6 14.0 0 3.3 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 8 6.0 13 9.7 Centre 34 20.0 2 9.3 Wing 39 39.0 23 37.7 F50 12 23.7 0 6.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Hawthorn. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 28 25.0 28 24.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Hawthorn. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 17 77% 84.0% 64.9% Jack Viney 17 77% 74.7% 72.1% Clayton Oliver 17 77% 69.3% 81.4% Tom Sparrow 14 64% 36.0% 44.9% Christian Petracca 10 45% 56.0% 61.1% Kysaiah Pickett 8 36% 29.4% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 5 23% 13.3% 7.6% Christian Salem 0 0% 41.3% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 1.3% 2.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 0.0% 3.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 61 76% 78.9% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 19 24% 15.8% 13.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0% 0.0% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 2.0% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 61 24 5 31.2% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 19 5 1 12.5% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Ned Reeves 61 26 1 Mabior Chol 14 3 2 Josh Weddle 4 1 0 Mitch Lewis 1 0 0
  17. @binman Here's an article from 2019 from Jake Michaels (from the excellent ESPN Footy Podcast) describing metres gained, effective metres gained, assisted metres gained, and net metres gained (metres gained + assisted metres gained): https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/27199381/metres-gained-breaking-afl-most-misunderstood-statistic @Demonland the dump kick (40+ metres) that goes to a 50/50 contest but ends up in the opposition hands is an effective kick, which is one limitation with effective kicks and effective metres gained. Effective Long Kick: A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team. Effective Short Kick: A kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession. Does not include kicks that are spoiled by the opposition. (Source: https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/)
  18. Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (Round 1, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240107 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 75.5 73.2 +2.3 Kicking Efficiency 72.4 64.0 +8.4 Metres Gained 6369 5719 +650 Inside 50s 53 53 +0 Shots At Goal 28 24 +4 Shots Per Inside 50 52.8 45.3 +7.5 Contested Possessions 126 126 +0 Ground Ball Gets 69 82 -13 Intercepts 69 59 +10 Intercept Marks 20 15 +5 Centre Clearances 13 15 -2 Stoppage Clearances 23 19 +4 Contested Marks 12 9 +3 Marks Inside 50 12 13 -1 Hitouts 38 27 +11 Hitouts To Advantage 17 10 +7 Tackles 47 37 +10 Tackles Inside 50 7 4 +3 Def One On One Loss % 30.0 25.0 +5.0 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 28 16.11.107 57.1% 83.3 +23.7 2.97 +0.85 Western Bulldogs 24 9.9.63 37.5% 67.4 −4.4 2.81 −0.18 General Play Melbourne 13 9.4.58 69.2% 39.0 +19.0 3.00 +1.46 Western Bulldogs 10 4.3.27 40.0% 25.1 +1.9 2.51 +0.19 Set Position Melbourne 15 7.7.49 46.7% 44.3 +4.7 2.95 +0.31 Western Bulldogs 14 5.6.36 35.7% 42.4 −6.4 3.03 −0.46 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 175 166 2 171 164 3 195 162 4 167 155 Match 177 162 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 30 62 62.5 Jack Billings 21 50 33.5 Kysaiah Pickett 21 48 48.0 Kade Chandler 22 47 47.0 Christian Salem 20 46 37.0 Christian Petracca 26 45 37.5 Alex Neal-Bullen 18 36 41.5 Tom McDonald 15 33 33.0 Trent Rivers 16 31 24.0 Clayton Oliver 15 29 37.5 Jake Lever 13 29 16.5 Tom Sparrow 16 28 49.5 Ed Langdon 14 25 29.5 Caleb Windsor 10 24 34.5 Marty Hore 9 20 20.0 Max Gawn 8 16 23.0 Steven May 6 16 17.0 Judd McVee 7 15 8.5 Ben Brown 9 11 11.0 Taj Woewodin 3 10 10.0 Blake Howes 4 9 21.5 Jacob van Rooyen 3 8 12.0 Bayley Fritsch 3 4 11.5 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 49% 51% 2 38% 62% 3 50% 50% 4 47% 53% Match 47% 53% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.1.1 0.2.2 -1 Centre Bounce 2.0.12 1.2.8 +4 Stoppage (Other) 5.5.35 2.1.13 +22 Turnover 9.7.61 6.5.41 +20 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 1 0.5 2 1.0 Centre Bounce 12 9.5 8 5.5 Stoppage (Other) 35 25.5 13 20.5 Turnover 61 51.0 41 48.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 1 0.5 2 1.0 Centre Bounce Centre 12 9.5 8 5.5 Stoppage (Other) D50 1 0.5 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 0.0 0 0.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 20 13.5 6 16.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 14 11.5 7 4.0 Turnover D50 6 4.0 8 7.0 Turnover Centre 1 3.5 8 7.0 Turnover Wing 42 25.5 19 29.0 Turnover F50 12 18.0 6 5.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 8 5.0 10 8.0 Centre 13 13.0 16 13.0 Wing 62 39.0 25 45.0 F50 26 29.5 13 9.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 39 23.5 17 22.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Western Bulldogs. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 25 86 86.8 64.9 Christian Salem 22 76 58.5 0.0 Jack Viney 20 69 73.6 72.1 Clayton Oliver 20 69 66.0 81.4 Christian Petracca 18 62 60.4 61.1 Kysaiah Pickett 7 24 24.1 11.2 Jacob van Rooyen 4 14 9.4 7.6 Tom Sparrow 0 0 24.5 44.9 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 1.9 2.1 Tom McDonald 0 0 0.0 5.7 Trent Rivers 0 0 0.0 3.0 Josh Schache 8.3 0.0 Charlie Spargo 4.2 0.0 Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 60 74 80.1 57.5 Jacob van Rooyen 21 26 12.4 13.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0.0 0.0 Ben Brown 0 0 0.0 2.3 Christian Petracca 0 0 0.0 0.4 Clayton Oliver 0 0 0.0 0.1 Steven May 0 0 0.0 0.0 Tom McDonald 0 0 0.0 9.3 Tom Sparrow 0 0 0.0 0.0 Josh Schache 13.3 4.1 Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 60 35 17 34.7 30.1 Jacob van Rooyen 21 3 0 0.0 31.1 Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0 Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0 Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0 Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0 Josh Schache 100.0 0.0 Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Tim English 60 21 10 Rory Lobb 21 6 0
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