WheeloRatings

That was Melbourne's fewest inside 50s since 2015 (excluding 2020 with shorter quarters). Melbourne's worst inside 50 differential, 2021-2024 -21 v WC, R10 2024 -21 v Port, R3 2024 -20 v Geel, R17 2022 -14 v Syd, R0 2024 Melbourne's worst differential in points from turnovers, 2021-2024 -56 v WC, R10 2024 (14 v 70)* -50 v Syd, R12 2022 (5 v 55) -40 v Syd, R24 2022 (30 v 70) -35 v Frem, R11 2022 (24 v 59) * Equal 2nd most pts conceded from turnovers and 2nd fewest points scored from turnovers from 2021-2024. Melbourne v West Coast (Round 10, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241009 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.9 77.2 -10.3 Kicking Efficiency 58.4 74.1 -15.7 Metres Gained 5069 5935 -866 Inside 50s 36 57 -21 Shots At Goal 21 31 -10 Shots Per Inside 50 58.3 54.4 +3.9 Contested Possessions 123 123 +0 Ground Ball Gets 82 84 -2 Intercepts 60 69 -9 Intercept Marks 10 19 -9 Centre Clearances 13 15 -2 Stoppage Clearances 28 21 +7 Contested Marks 7 15 -8 Marks Inside 50 9 13 -4 Hitouts 42 29 +13 Hitouts To Advantage 14 7 +7 Tackles 67 63 +4 Tackles Inside 50 9 22 -13 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 30.0 -10.0 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 9 3 +6 Loose Ball Get 16 9 +7 Other 9 3 +6 Total 34 15 +19 Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 1 3 -2 Loose Ball Get 7 15 -8 Other 8 11 -3 Total 16 29 -13 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 10 13 -3 Loose Ball Get 42 44 -2 Other 16 26 -10 Total 68 83 -15 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 14 8 +6 Loose Ball Get 16 19 -3 Other 25 13 +12 Total 55 40 +15 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Other includes contested marks, free kicks, contested knock ons, gathers from hitouts, and ruck hard ball gets. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 65.2 70 3 1% +5.3 West Coast 105.5 105 1 99% +40.3 +35 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 10.7.67 47.6% 62.2 +4.8 2.96 +0.23 West Coast 31 16.8.104 51.6% 104.5 −0.5 3.37 −0.02 General Play Melbourne 9 3.4.22 33.3% 21.2 +0.8 2.36 +0.08 West Coast 15 6.3.39 40.0% 44.2 −5.2 2.95 −0.35 Set Position Melbourne 12 7.3.45 58.3% 41.0 +4.0 3.41 +0.34 West Coast 16 10.5.65 62.5% 60.3 +4.7 3.77 +0.29 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 205 175 2 180 207 3 176 164 4 171 208 Match 184 189 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 28 77 63.1 Kade Chandler 21 52 49.3 Clayton Oliver 23 52 43.5 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 48 53.1 Christian Salem 26 48 29.9 Harrison Petty 20 48 29.8 Kysaiah Pickett 21 45 42.9 Trent Rivers 14 38 23.5 Tom Sparrow 13 29 49.1 Caleb Windsor 12 27 33.0 Taj Woewodin 10 24 14.6 Tom McDonald 10 22 23.9 Shane McAdam 10 22 22.0 Jack Billings 10 20 25.0 Jake Bowey 6 17 13.0 Ben Brown 7 17 10.3 Christian Petracca 7 15 35.9 Judd McVee 7 14 16.1 Bayley Fritsch 7 13 15.0 Max Gawn 5 12 25.5 Blake Howes 5 11 18.7 Steven May 6 8 9.3 Jake Lever 1 2 15.7 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 43% 57% 2 31% 69% 3 69% 31% 4 26% 74% Match 41% 59% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 4.1.25 1.1.7 +18 Stoppage (Other) 5.1.31 4.4.28 +3 Turnover 1.8.14 11.4.70 -56 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 3.0 0 2.2 Centre Bounce 25 12.6 7 8.0 Stoppage (Other) 31 24.7 28 18.7 Turnover 14 40.1 70 42.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 25 12.6 7 8.0 Kick-in D50 0 3.0 0 2.2 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 1.9 0 1.8 Stoppage (Other) Centre 12 2.8 13 2.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 12 14.0 6 9.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 6.0 9 5.4 Turnover D50 0 7.1 6 6.5 Turnover Centre 2 6.4 6 5.5 Turnover Wing 5 18.4 34 24.1 Turnover F50 7 8.2 24 6.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 6 12.0 6 10.5 Centre 39 21.8 26 16.0 Wing 17 32.4 40 33.1 F50 8 14.2 33 11.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 6 12.0 6 10.5 Defensive midfield 8 18.7 26 15.0 Centre bounce 25 12.6 7 8.0 Attacking midfield 23 22.9 33 26.1 Forward 50 8 14.2 33 11.5 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 14 30.7 32 25.5 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Clayton Oliver 24 80% 71.8% 81.4% Max Gawn 23 77% 84.9% 64.9% Jack Viney 21 70% 71.0% 72.1% Christian Petracca 19 63% 59.5% 61.1% Christian Salem 10 33% 28.2% 0.0% Kysaiah Pickett 8 27% 27.5% 11.2% Alex Neal-Bullen 8 27% 10.3% 2.1% Harrison Petty 7 23% 4.0% 0.7% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 40.1% 44.9% Trent Rivers 0 0% 3.2% 3.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Jacob van Rooyen 12.6% 7.6% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 1.5% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 66 73% 82.2% 57.5% Harrison Petty 23 26% 4.6% 2.0% Ben Brown 1 1% 0.2% 2.3% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 13.9% 13.1% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 66 28 7 28.5% 30.1% Harrison Petty 23 13 6 35.3% 25.0% Ben Brown 1 1 1 100.0% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 29.0% 31.1% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Bailey J. Williams 67 24 5 Jack Williams 17 4 2 Jack Darling 5 1 0 Tom Barrass 1 0 0

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 36 7 9 Christian Petracca 35 4 9 Jake Lever 17 3 9 Steven May 15 4 8 Alex Neal-Bullen 13 3 9 Clayton Oliver 9 1 9 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 9 Kysaiah Pickett 8 2 7 Jack Viney 5 1 9 Judd McVee 5 1 9 Trent Rivers 5 2 9 Daniel Turner 4 1 3 Ed Langdon 3 2 9 Kade Chandler 2 1 9 Harrison Petty 1 1 7 Jack Billings 1 1 9 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Max Gawn 36 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 3 • Christian Petracca 35 • 5 10 • 10 • • • 10 Jake Lever 17 • • • • 3 • 9 5 • Steven May 15 • 7 • 3 • 2 3 • Alex Neal-Bullen 13 • • 4 8 • • • • 1 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 8 • 4 • • • 4 • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 • • Daniel Turner 4 4 • • Ed Langdon 3 • • • • • • 2 • 1 Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • • • Harrison Petty 1 • • • • • 1 • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • • • •

Here is the game-by-game contested possessions for this season. 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Post clearance Contested Knock On -1 +1 0 +5 -4 +1 -2 -2 +2 Contested Mark -5 +3 +7 -4 +9 +4 +3 +8 -3 Free For +2 0 -1 +6 -6 -9 +7 +5 -4 Hard Ball Get +5 -3 -2 0 -9 -2 +7 +1 -2 Hard Ball Get Crumb +3 +2 -1 0 +5 -1 0 -3 -4 Loose Ball Get +3 -12 -1 -9 +1 +4 -2 -9 +5 Loose Ball Get Crumb -3 +4 -8 +7 +1 -3 -2 -4 +1 Total +4 -5 -6 +5 -3 -6 +11 -4 -5 Pre clearance Contested Knock On -4 -4 +2 +1 +2 -1 +1 +4 0 Free For 0 +1 0 0 -2 -2 +2 -1 +1 Gather From Hitout -4 +5 +3 +10 +8 +4 0 -5 0 Hard Ball Get +4 +3 +5 +2 -7 -6 +4 +3 -3 Loose Ball Get -1 -7 +6 -22 +6 -13 +1 0 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 +7 +2 +2 -2 +11 -2 +6 -2 Total -5 +5 +18 -7 +5 -7 +6 +7 -3 https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ Contested Knock-On: Using the hand to knock the ball to a teammate’s advantage rather than attempting to take possession from a contested situation. Crumb: A type of groundball-gets that is won by a player at ground level after a marking contest. The players must not be involved in the original contest. Crumbing Possessions can be either hardball or looseball-gets. Gather From Hitout: A possession gained from a teammate’s hitout-to-advantage. Counted as a contested possession.

Cheers layzie. Yes, I'll aim to post the game-by-game in the next couple of days.

Melbourne v Carlton (Round 9, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240901 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 68.5 67.4 +1.1 Kicking Efficiency 63.1 62.3 +0.8 Metres Gained 5904 5668 +236 Inside 50s 61 41 +20 Shots At Goal 23 15 +8 Shots Per Inside 50 37.7 36.6 +1.1 Contested Possessions 146 154 -8 Ground Ball Gets 104 106 -2 Intercepts 84 82 +2 Intercept Marks 18 18 +0 Centre Clearances 10 14 -4 Stoppage Clearances 30 28 +2 Contested Marks 9 12 -3 Marks Inside 50 9 7 +2 Hitouts 51 32 +19 Hitouts To Advantage 10 11 -1 Tackles 86 68 +18 Tackles Inside 50 16 9 +7 Def One On One Loss % 33.3 33.3 +0.0 Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 78.2 76 4 94% +23.7 Carlton 54.5 77 3 6% +1 +24.7 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 23 11.6.72 47.8% 74.2 −2.2 3.23 −0.10 Carlton 15 12.2.74 80.0% 51.5 +22.5 3.44 +1.50 General Play Melbourne 14 5.4.34 35.7% 41.3 −7.3 2.95 −0.52 Carlton 7 6.1.37 85.7% 24.4 +12.6 3.48 +1.80 Set Position Melbourne 9 6.2.38 66.7% 32.9 +5.1 3.65 +0.57 Carlton 8 6.1.37 75.0% 27.2 +9.8 3.39 +1.23 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 186 200 2 189 163 3 217 209 4 221 201 Match 202 194 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 40 92 61.6 Alex Neal-Bullen 32 87 53.7 Kade Chandler 26 67 49.0 Clayton Oliver 22 55 42.6 Kysaiah Pickett 27 51 42.6 Tom Sparrow 20 47 51.3 Harrison Petty 18 39 27.1 Christian Petracca 13 36 38.2 Ed Langdon 17 32 31.9 Caleb Windsor 11 29 33.7 Tom McDonald 11 27 24.1 Bayley Fritsch 10 26 15.2 Jake Lever 8 23 17.2 Jacob van Rooyen 11 23 16.3 Jack Billings 10 22 25.6 Judd McVee 8 22 16.3 Trent Rivers 9 20 21.9 Max Gawn 7 19 27.0 Daniel Turner 5 13 11.7 Blake Howes 6 12 19.6 Jake Bowey 4 11 11.0 Steven May 3 5 9.5 Taj Woewodin 1 4 13.3 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 53% 47% 2 50% 50% 3 51% 49% 4 76% 24% Match 59% 41% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 2.0.12 5.0.30 -18 Stoppage (Other) 4.3.27 2.2.14 +13 Turnover 5.6.36 5.2.32 +4 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 3.3 0 2.4 Centre Bounce 12 11.2 30 8.1 Stoppage (Other) 27 24.0 14 17.7 Turnover 36 43.0 32 39.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 12 11.2 30 8.1 Kick-in D50 0 3.3 0 2.4 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.4 0 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 1.8 0 1.3 Stoppage (Other) Wing 20 14.2 7 9.3 Stoppage (Other) F50 6 6.6 7 5.0 Turnover D50 0 7.9 6 6.6 Turnover Centre 8 6.9 13 5.4 Turnover Wing 27 19.9 12 23.0 Turnover F50 1 8.3 1 4.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 0 12.7 6 11.0 Centre 21 19.9 43 14.9 Wing 47 34.1 19 32.3 F50 7 14.9 8 9.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 0 12.7 6 11.0 Defensive midfield 26 19.9 19 13.8 Centre bounce 12 11.2 30 8.1 Attacking midfield 30 22.9 13 25.3 Forward 50 7 14.9 8 9.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 26 32.6 25 24.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 24 89% 86.0% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 21 78% 70.7% 81.4% Tom Sparrow 17 63% 45.5% 44.9% Jack Viney 16 59% 71.2% 72.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 14 52% 8.1% 2.1% Christian Petracca 8 30% 59.0% 61.1% Kysaiah Pickett 5 19% 27.6% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 3 11% 12.6% 7.6% Trent Rivers 0 0% 3.6% 3.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.6% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Salem 27.2% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 1.5% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 91 84% 83.1% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 12 11% 13.9% 13.1% Harrison Petty 5 5% 1.7% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.0% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 91 45 9 28.7% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 12 4 1 29.0% 31.1% Harrison Petty 5 2 0 0.0% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Marc Pittonet 72 21 8 Tom De Koning 36 11 3

@binman To add to the above, here are the pre- and post-clearance contested possession differentials by type of contested possessions. The most notable drop post clearance is in loose ball gets (disputed ball at ground level not under direct physical pressure that results in an opportunity to record a legal disposal). 2021 2022 2023 2024 Post clearance Contested Knock On -25 -17 +11 -2 Contested Mark +72 +35 +30 +25 Free For +1 -4 +13 +4 Hard Ball Get +33 +3 +11 -3 Hard Ball Get Crumb -7 +47 +27 +5 Loose Ball Get +26 +87 +2 -25 Loose Ball Get Crumb +134 +78 +58 -8 Pre clearance Contested Knock On -14 -6 -3 +1 Free For -21 +2 +5 -2 Gather From Hitout +122 +43 +54 +21 Hard Ball Get +14 +79 +16 +8 Loose Ball Get -75 -27 -20 -30 Ruck Hard Ball Get +40 +28 +54 +24 As you and @Binmans PA mentioned on the podcast thread, this may not be such an important stat for Melbourne this season.

I did see it and I did actually respond 😊 I included some numbers in the post with several qualifiers - let me know if you'd like me to dig deeper or cut the data a different way.

The low number of stoppages in the second quarter would definitely explain the low pressure. The ESPN Footy podcast (with Champion Data) have talked about pre-clearance pressure being much higher than post-clearance pressure. Here is an excerpt from an article from 2018: "Champion Data measures the statistic in two ways — pre-clearance pressure and post-clearance (or general play) pressure. "It’s easier to apply pressure at stoppages by virtue of the fact it’s a congested area. "But squeezing the opposition in open play is the real art form, which is why the AFL pressure rating average pre-clearance is 256 and post-clearance is only 164."

That was partly my point - that you can use it in conjunction with actual score and number of shots to derive useful metrics. Ok, maybe not so insightful, but still useful. And it's a good thing to be able to use data to quantify things that your eye tells you. It's certainly flawed, but that doesn't mean it's irrelevant. Re the expected scores ladder, they literally have "free kick" ladders which people use as evidence of bad or biased umpiring. Expected scores are more meaningful than free kick counts. But I agree it's overdone in the media. You are correct, it doesn't take any of that into account.

Ah, but how do you define/measure "bad kicking"? Teams will always miss some shots at goal - at what point do you say it was bad kicking? It's not about celebrating an expected score win, it's about understanding where/how you lost the game. Expected scores helps to differentiate whether you were getting good shots on goal but not executing, or you weren't getting enough good shots at goal. I would hope the post-game analysis by coaching staff is more in depth than "we lost, let's not do that next time".

It's clearly not a meaningless or bad stat if the clubs put a lot of stock in it. Can you say that a team should have won a match because they won on expected scores by a small margin? No, you can't. So articles like the above from Fox Sports don't really help with interpretation of expected scores. Goalkicking is not entirely about "who performs under pressure" - there's an element of that, but there is also an element of luck with goalkicking. Regardless, expected scores provide two very useful and insightful metrics (even completely ignoring the "who should have won" perspective). Average expected score per shot This metric is a measure of average shot difficulty. Melbourne supporters bemoan Melbourne's strategy of kicking it to the pocket because it leads to more difficult shots. This metrics quantifies this. Melbourne rank 18th for average shot difficulty in 2024 (16th last year) and 18th for set shots only (17th last year). Average difference between actual and expected score per shot This metric is a measure of goalkicking accuracy, and much better than raw accuracy (goals divided by shots). People already look at the final tally of goals and behinds and draw conclusions such as a team should have won by more or were lucky to win. Two recent examples are: - Essendon defeating West Coast 11.11 to 11.5 - Adelaide defeating Carlton 16.4 to 14.14 On the surface, you assume West Coast were lucky to get as close thanks to their accurate kicking and you assume Adelaide was very lucky to win thanks to their apparent ridiculously accurate kicking. - West Coast had 24 shots to 23 and won expected scores 89.9 to 80.7. - Adelaide had 25 shots to 26 (despite it being 20 "scores" to 28) and only lost expected scores 92.8 to 95.8.

With all the stats that are tracked in an AFL game, you seriously think that expected scores is the worst? It says a lot more about a match than most other stats in isolation. No one actually thinks they won a match because they won on expected scores only.

Here is my model's expected scores ladder, where I calculate the win probability for each match based on expected scores, rather than a binary win/loss. I think it's rather pointless simply reporting whether a team won a match on expected scores. The expected margin is more insightful. And using win probability is better for an expected scores ladder. I'm not going to argue that this is what the ladder "should be" or anything like that, but it does provide a sense for which teams might have been lucky/unlucky with their goal kicking or opposition goal kicking.

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 36 7 8 Christian Petracca 25 3 8 Jake Lever 17 3 8 Steven May 15 4 7 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 8 Clayton Oliver 9 1 8 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 8 Kysaiah Pickett 8 2 6 Jack Viney 5 1 8 Judd McVee 5 1 8 Trent Rivers 5 2 8 Daniel Turner 4 1 2 Ed Langdon 2 1 8 Kade Chandler 2 1 8 Harrison Petty 1 1 6 Jack Billings 1 1 8 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 Max Gawn 36 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 3 Christian Petracca 25 • 5 10 • 10 • • • Jake Lever 17 • • • • 3 • 9 5 Steven May 15 • 7 • 3 • 2 3 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 • • • • Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 8 • 4 • • • 4 Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 • Daniel Turner 4 4 • Ed Langdon 2 • • • • • • 2 • Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • • Harrison Petty 1 • • • • • 1 Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • • •

Thanks @binman I appreciate it. I'm glad you like the new team lists page. I have just added to that page the players' matches and goals for the current season. I can't source official stats on post-clearance contested possessions. I have just revisited the play-by-play dataset to see if I can calculate the post-clearance contested possessions. Clearances are not tagged in the dataset so I have attempted to determine clearances from disposals which "clear the stoppage area" as per the CD definition. From what Christian from CD has previously said on the ESPN Footy Podcast, the "stoppage area" is determined by the eye of the CD callers, so anything I calculate will only be approximate. The other issue is the limited publicly available data that I can use to validate my estimates. I have found a handful of articles (e.g. link) and match timelines which refer to post-clearance contested possessions and my estimates seem to be in the ballpark, so these numbers should be indicative. Estimated POST-clearance contested possession differential, 2021-2024 (after 7 matches of R8 2024) Team 2021 2022 2023 2024 Carlton −3.5 +8.1 +4.7 +8.5 Hawthorn −4.6 −3.1 +1.1 +6.6 West Coast −1.7 −9.9 −9.0 +5.8 Greater Western Sydney +1.4 −3.4 +1.6 +5.4 Western Bulldogs +4.6 +2.0 +1.0 +4.6 Gold Coast −4.1 −1.7 −1.2 +2.6 Collingwood −0.4 −1.9 +0.1 +2.0 Essendon −1.3 −1.4 −2.0 +1.8 Geelong +6.7 +5.3 +2.5 +1.5 Adelaide −3.2 +1.3 +2.2 +1.4 Brisbane +4.2 +3.3 +1.9 +1.3 Melbourne +9.4 +9.6 +6.0 −0.5 Richmond −2.7 −0.2 −0.2 −2.4 St Kilda +0.5 +0.5 +2.8 −4.0 Fremantle −2.0 −2.3 −2.2 −4.5 Sydney −0.7 +1.7 −0.1 −5.8 Port Adelaide +2.8 +0.8 −2.3 −6.5 North Melbourne −9.4 −10.5 −8.5 −15.8 Estimated PRE-clearance contested possession differential, 2021-2024 (after 7 matches of R8 2024) Team 2021 2022 2023 2024 Fremantle +5.6 +3.2 −1.9 +8.2 Gold Coast −5.7 +4.8 +3.6 +5.1 Port Adelaide +2.5 −0.5 −2.1 +4.9 Brisbane −1.3 −0.1 +2.5 +3.0 Essendon −3.9 −2.1 −0.8 +2.8 Melbourne +2.6 +4.9 +4.3 +2.8 Carlton −3.7 +4.8 +4.5 +2.6 Sydney −1.1 −0.4 −4.2 +2.6 St Kilda −1.3 +2.1 +0.2 +2.4 North Melbourne −1.5 +1.5 −0.8 −1.1 Hawthorn −2.2 −6.0 +1.7 −1.1 Adelaide +1.9 −0.3 −0.3 −2.0 Greater Western Sydney +2.6 −2.1 −0.2 −3.2 Collingwood +0.3 −7.6 +0.5 −3.5 West Coast +1.5 −7.7 −9.3 −4.0 Western Bulldogs +3.5 +6.0 +5.7 −4.0 Richmond −5.0 −2.4 −1.8 −7.0 Geelong +3.6 +2.0 −2.5 −8.0

Melbourne v Geelong (Round 8, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240805 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 73.6 69.8 +3.8 Kicking Efficiency 70.5 61.6 +8.9 Metres Gained 6294 6207 +87 Inside 50s 51 50 +1 Shots At Goal 27 24 +3 Shots Per Inside 50 52.9 48.0 +4.9 Contested Possessions 127 124 +3 Ground Ball Gets 76 88 -12 Intercepts 79 76 +3 Intercept Marks 13 15 -2 Centre Clearances 12 8 +4 Stoppage Clearances 15 18 -3 Contested Marks 16 8 +8 Marks Inside 50 13 13 +0 Hitouts 24 27 -3 Hitouts To Advantage 5 10 -5 Tackles 55 51 +4 Tackles Inside 50 13 2 +11 Def One On One Loss % 25.0 28.6 -3.6 Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 83.0 74 1 88% +21.2 +8 Geelong 61.8 66 1 12% +13.2 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 27 10.13.73 37.0% 82.0 −9.0 3.04 −0.33 Geelong 24 9.11.65 37.5% 60.8 +4.2 2.53 +0.17 General Play Melbourne 13 3.7.25 23.1% 37.3 −12.3 2.87 −0.95 Geelong 9 5.3.33 55.6% 21.7 +11.3 2.41 +1.26 Set Position Melbourne 14 7.6.48 50.0% 44.7 +3.3 3.19 +0.24 Geelong 15 4.8.32 26.7% 39.2 −7.2 2.61 −0.48 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 183 173 2 161 158 3 171 165 4 193 181 Match 176 170 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 32 58 41.0 Jack Viney 25 57 57.8 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 55 49.5 Caleb Windsor 17 48 34.2 Kade Chandler 19 47 46.8 Kysaiah Pickett 24 45 41.2 Tom Sparrow 22 42 51.9 Christian Petracca 16 37 38.5 Harrison Petty 16 30 25.2 Jack Billings 11 27 26.0 Blake Howes 12 26 20.5 Max Gawn 10 22 28.0 Tom McDonald 12 22 23.7 Trent Rivers 13 22 22.1 Jake Lever 10 20 16.5 Judd McVee 9 17 15.6 Daniel Turner 8 16 11.0 Ed Langdon 8 14 31.9 Jacob van Rooyen 5 11 15.5 Bayley Fritsch 6 9 13.9 Taj Woewodin 4 7 14.8 Steven May 5 7 10.1 Bailey Laurie 2 2 7.0 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 39% 61% 2 56% 44% 3 61% 39% 4 53% 47% Match 53% 47% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.2.2 0.0.0 +2 Centre Bounce 1.3.9 0.1.1 +8 Stoppage (Other) 2.2.14 4.4.28 -14 Turnover 7.7.49 5.7.37 +12 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 2 3.8 0 2.8 Centre Bounce 9 11.1 1 5.4 Stoppage (Other) 14 23.6 28 18.1 Turnover 49 43.9 37 40.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 9 11.1 1 5.4 Kick-in D50 2 3.8 0 2.8 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.6 18 2.2 Stoppage (Other) Centre 6 1.9 0 1.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 7 13.5 9 9.6 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 6.6 1 4.8 Turnover D50 27 8.9 12 6.6 Turnover Centre 12 6.8 6 4.5 Turnover Wing 3 19.0 16 24.4 Turnover F50 7 9.2 3 4.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 29 14.2 30 11.6 Centre 27 19.8 7 11.4 Wing 10 32.5 25 34.0 F50 8 15.9 4 9.2 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 29 14.2 30 11.6 Defensive midfield 7 19.1 14 13.1 Centre bounce 9 11.1 1 5.4 Attacking midfield 21 22.0 17 26.9 Forward 50 8 15.9 4 9.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 36 33.4 44 24.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Geelong. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 18 78% 85.6% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 18 78% 69.7% 81.4% Christian Petracca 17 74% 63.1% 61.1% Jack Viney 16 70% 72.8% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 10 43% 43.1% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 8 35% 29.3% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 5 22% 12.8% 7.6% Trent Rivers 0 0% 4.1% 3.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 2.1% 2.1% Bailey Laurie 0 0% 1.5% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.7% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Salem 27.2% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 48 71% 82.9% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 15 22% 14.3% 13.1% Harrison Petty 5 7% 1.1% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.0% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 48 20 5 30.1% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 15 2 0 29.6% 31.1% Harrison Petty 5 2 0 0.0% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Rhys Stanley 48 21 9 Mark Blicavs 13 4 0 Sam De Koning 4 1 1 Tom Hawkins 3 1 0

I'm not 100% sure of the stat they're looking at, but we are 3rd this year for proportion of all points scored from the defensive midfield. Score sources are usually reported as one of (a) points scored, (b) points conceded, or (c) differential, so I would ordinarily assume it would be one of those, but I did find the following article that refers to % of points conceded by zone. So I assume your interpretation is correct in that David King was referring to % of points scored from the defensive midfield zone. https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/29699624/afl-understanding-geelong-incredible-team-defence-their-achilles-heel Average points scored per match, 2024 (including the first two matches in round 8) by zone Team D50 Defensive Midfield Centre Bounce Attack Midfield F50 Total Def Mid % St Kilda 16.0 24.6 8.1 14.9 9.4 73.0 33.7% Gold Coast 11.3 22.6 12.0 20.0 18.9 84.7 26.6% Melbourne 12.1 20.9 11.4 22.1 17.0 83.6 25.0% Hawthorn 11.1 15.1 8.9 22.9 9.7 67.7 22.4% Greater Western Sydney 21.3 23.3 13.1 28.1 21.4 107.3 21.7% Collingwood 9.9 18.6 7.4 35.2 15.4 86.5 21.5% Richmond 16.4 14.9 3.9 21.9 12.6 69.6 21.4% Sydney 20.0 21.4 9.6 35.0 18.0 104.0 20.6% Essendon 13.7 17.0 13.6 23.6 15.0 82.9 20.5% Brisbane 14.4 13.9 8.6 25.1 11.9 73.9 18.8% North Melbourne 13.0 13.1 11.1 22.6 10.7 70.6 18.6% Geelong 20.3 18.3 17.0 24.3 19.1 99.0 18.5% Western Bulldogs 17.9 16.7 12.7 20.3 23.6 91.1 18.3% Fremantle 17.6 13.4 12.4 16.9 18.7 79.0 17.0% Port Adelaide 16.1 14.8 14.5 26.8 17.8 89.9 16.4% Carlton 14.0 15.6 12.1 36.0 19.9 97.6 16.0% Adelaide 20.6 12.4 11.5 17.1 15.8 77.4 16.0% West Coast 15.3 9.6 12.9 20.0 15.1 72.9 13.1% Average points conceded per match, 2024 (including the first two matches in round 8) by zone Opposition D50 Defensive Midfield Centre Bounce Attack Midfield F50 Total Def Mid % Gold Coast 14.1 11.9 8.7 22.7 26.4 83.9 14.1% Sydney 9.9 12.7 9.3 23.7 14.9 70.4 18.1% Melbourne 9.0 13.0 6.0 28.3 10.0 66.3 19.6% Fremantle 12.0 13.4 8.9 20.3 16.1 70.7 19.0% Adelaide 11.0 14.5 11.0 22.5 17.0 76.0 19.1% Port Adelaide 19.1 14.5 9.8 26.5 9.6 79.5 18.2% Geelong 12.0 14.6 10.7 21.6 14.3 73.1 19.9% St Kilda 17.0 15.4 7.9 26.1 15.3 81.7 18.9% West Coast 24.6 16.7 12.9 23.6 20.6 98.3 17.0% Brisbane 14.3 16.9 9.6 22.1 15.6 78.4 21.5% Essendon 18.4 17.3 11.9 23.4 17.4 88.4 19.5% Carlton 17.8 19.8 11.5 20.4 19.5 88.9 22.2% Western Bulldogs 14.7 19.9 13.1 18.7 13.0 79.4 25.0% Greater Western Sydney 11.6 20.1 15.1 18.9 13.0 78.7 25.6% North Melbourne 28.9 20.6 17.6 29.9 26.3 123.1 16.7% Richmond 20.9 20.6 12.4 20.1 18.1 92.1 22.3% Collingwood 15.9 20.6 9.9 32.4 8.6 87.4 23.6% Hawthorn 9.6 22.6 15.1 33.4 16.1 96.9 23.3% I have recently added some score source data to the website (on the match stats and team stats pages), outlined in the following post. cc @binman

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 33 6 7 Christian Petracca 25 3 7 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 7 Jake Lever 12 2 7 Steven May 12 3 6 Clayton Oliver 9 1 7 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 7 Jack Viney 5 1 7 Judd McVee 5 1 7 Trent Rivers 5 2 7 Daniel Turner 4 1 1 Kysaiah Pickett 4 1 5 Ed Langdon 2 1 7 Kade Chandler 2 1 7 Jack Billings 1 1 7 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 Max Gawn 33 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 Christian Petracca 25 • 5 10 • 10 • • Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 • • • Jake Lever 12 • • • • 3 • 9 Steven May 12 • 7 • 3 • 2 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 Daniel Turner 4 4 Kysaiah Pickett 4 • 4 • • • Ed Langdon 2 • • • • • • 2 Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • •

Melbourne v Richmond (Round 7, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240701 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.7 72.5 -0.9 Kicking Efficiency 68.9 66.3 +2.5 Metres Gained 6255 5717 +538 Inside 50s 50 50 +0 Shots At Goal 26 16 +10 Shots Per Inside 50 52.0 32.0 +20.0 Contested Possessions 136 119 +17 Ground Ball Gets 89 81 +8 Intercepts 69 73 -4 Intercept Marks 22 23 -1 Centre Clearances 8 10 -2 Stoppage Clearances 24 15 +9 Contested Marks 10 7 +3 Marks Inside 50 14 11 +3 Hitouts 27 27 +0 Hitouts To Advantage 12 10 +2 Tackles 52 57 -5 Tackles Inside 50 9 11 -2 Def One On One Loss % 28.6 30.8 -2.2 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 26 13.5.83 50.0% 74.3 +8.7 2.86 +0.34 Richmond 16 5.8.38 31.2% 53.7 −15.7 3.35 −0.98 General Play Melbourne 10 3.2.20 30.0% 26.6 −6.6 2.66 −0.66 Richmond 6 1.4.10 16.7% 16.5 −6.5 2.75 −1.08 Set Position Melbourne 16 10.3.63 62.5% 47.6 +15.4 2.98 +0.96 Richmond 10 4.4.28 40.0% 37.2 −9.2 3.72 −0.92 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 185 173 2 150 181 3 181 168 4 162 162 Match 170 171 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 25 51 57.9 Tom Sparrow 24 44 53.3 Clayton Oliver 21 42 38.6 Ed Langdon 16 41 34.4 Alex Neal-Bullen 20 40 48.7 Christian Petracca 17 33 38.7 Kade Chandler 13 32 46.7 Tom McDonald 12 29 24.0 Harrison Petty 15 28 24.2 Trent Rivers 12 28 22.1 Taj Woewodin 11 27 16.4 Caleb Windsor 12 26 32.3 Jack Billings 10 26 25.9 Kysaiah Pickett 11 25 40.4 Blake Howes 12 22 19.7 Judd McVee 9 22 15.4 Max Gawn 7 18 28.9 Jacob van Rooyen 10 16 16.1 Jake Lever 8 13 16.0 Bayley Fritsch 4 7 14.6 Daniel Turner 3 6 6.0 Steven May 4 5 10.7 Bailey Laurie 3 4 9.5 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 45% 55% 2 58% 42% 3 46% 54% 4 40% 60% Match 46% 54% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.1.1 0.0.0 +1 Centre Bounce 1.1.7 0.1.1 +6 Stoppage (Other) 3.1.19 0.2.2 +17 Turnover 9.4.58 5.9.39 +19 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 1 4.0 0 3.1 Centre Bounce 7 11.4 1 6.0 Stoppage (Other) 19 25.0 2 16.7 Turnover 58 43.1 39 40.4 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 1 4.0 0 3.1 Centre Bounce Centre 7 11.4 1 6.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 1.9 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 7 1.3 0 1.7 Stoppage (Other) Wing 6 14.4 1 9.7 Stoppage (Other) F50 0 7.4 1 5.3 Turnover D50 13 6.3 7 5.9 Turnover Centre 6 6.0 6 4.3 Turnover Wing 21 21.3 23 25.6 Turnover F50 18 9.6 3 4.7 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 20 12.1 7 9.0 Centre 20 18.7 7 12.0 Wing 27 35.7 24 35.3 F50 18 17.0 4 10.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 45 32.1 21 22.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Richmond. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 19 90% 86.6% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 17 81% 68.6% 81.4% Jack Viney 14 67% 73.3% 72.1% Christian Petracca 12 57% 61.6% 61.1% Tom Sparrow 10 48% 43.0% 44.9% Kysaiah Pickett 9 43% 28.2% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 1 5% 11.6% 7.6% Bailey Laurie 1 5% 2.2% 0.0% Harrison Petty 1 5% 0.8% 0.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 4.7% 3.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 2.3% 2.1% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Salem 27.2% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 60 88% 84.2% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 7 10% 13.5% 13.1% Harrison Petty 1 1% 0.2% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.0% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 60 26 11 30.5% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 7 1 1 32.0% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 1 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Toby Nankervis 37 15 7 Sam Naismith 26 9 3 Mykelti Lefau 6 3 0

Melbourne v Brisbane (Round 5, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240501 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 71.2 76.1 -4.8 Kicking Efficiency 66.8 75.3 -8.5 Metres Gained 5295 5599 -304 Inside 50s 50 58 -8 Shots At Goal 19 22 -3 Shots Per Inside 50 38.0 37.9 +0.1 Contested Possessions 121 134 -13 Ground Ball Gets 72 93 -21 Intercepts 64 61 +3 Intercept Marks 26 17 +9 Centre Clearances 11 11 +0 Stoppage Clearances 24 33 -9 Contested Marks 14 10 +4 Marks Inside 50 9 12 -3 Hitouts 58 27 +31 Hitouts To Advantage 13 8 +5 Tackles 53 82 -29 Tackles Inside 50 5 15 -10 Def One On One Loss % 30.0 12.5 +17.5 Expected scores Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 19 8.10.58 42.1% 58.0 +0.0 3.05 +0.00 Brisbane 22 12.8.80 54.5% 82.8 −2.8 3.76 −0.13 General Play Melbourne 7 1.6.12 14.3% 16.6 −4.6 2.36 −0.65 Brisbane 11 6.4.40 54.5% 37.1 +2.9 3.38 +0.26 Set Position Melbourne 12 7.4.46 58.3% 41.5 +4.5 3.46 +0.38 Brisbane 11 6.4.40 54.5% 45.6 −5.6 4.15 −0.51 xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 199 227 2 160 191 3 151 197 4 164 186 Match 168 201 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Tom Sparrow 30 76 54.8 Jack Viney 30 59 59.0 Ed Langdon 17 45 33.3 Koltyn Tholstrup 17 39 39.0 Clayton Oliver 19 38 38.0 Kade Chandler 20 36 49.2 Alex Neal-Bullen 13 33 50.2 Caleb Windsor 17 30 33.3 Max Gawn 11 28 30.7 Judd McVee 10 27 14.3 Jack Billings 9 26 25.8 Trent Rivers 10 25 21.2 Christian Petracca 12 22 39.7 Taj Woewodin 10 21 13.8 Tom McDonald 8 20 23.0 Harrison Petty 10 18 23.2 Blake Howes 10 18 19.3 Steven May 6 15 11.8 Jake Lever 7 11 16.5 Jacob van Rooyen 5 6 16.2 Ben Brown 2 3 9.0 Bayley Fritsch 1 2 15.8 Christian Salem 0 0 26.8 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 34% 66% 2 51% 49% 3 42% 58% 4 64% 36% Match 46% 54% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.0.6 0.1.1 +5 Centre Bounce 1.3.9 1.1.7 +2 Stoppage (Other) 2.3.15 6.4.40 -25 Turnover 4.6.30 5.4.34 -4 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 6 4.5 1 3.7 Centre Bounce 9 12.2 7 6.8 Stoppage (Other) 15 26.0 40 19.2 Turnover 30 40.7 34 40.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in D50 6 4.5 1 3.7 Centre Bounce Centre 9 12.2 7 6.8 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.2 0 0.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 0.3 6 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Wing 12 15.8 24 11.2 Stoppage (Other) F50 2 8.7 10 6.0 Turnover D50 0 5.2 1 5.7 Turnover Centre 2 6.0 1 4.0 Turnover Wing 28 21.3 26 26.0 Turnover F50 0 8.2 6 5.0 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 6 10.8 2 9.3 Centre 12 18.5 14 12.8 Wing 40 37.2 50 37.2 F50 2 16.8 16 11.0 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 31 30.0 20 22.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Brisbane. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 22 92% 86.1% 64.9% Christian Petracca 18 75% 62.3% 61.1% Jack Viney 16 67% 74.2% 72.1% Tom Sparrow 15 62% 42.4% 44.9% Clayton Oliver 10 42% 66.9% 81.4% Trent Rivers 8 33% 5.3% 3.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 3 12% 2.6% 2.1% Jacob van Rooyen 2 8% 12.6% 7.6% Koltyn Tholstrup 2 8% 8.3% Christian Salem 0 0% 27.2% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Kysaiah Pickett 25.2% 11.2% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 96 90% 83.8% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 11 10% 13.8% 13.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0% 0.0% 2.3% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.0% 2.0% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 96 51 12 29.2% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 11 7 1 29.2% 31.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Ben Brown 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Harrison Petty 0 0 0 25.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Oscar McInerney 87 26 8 Joe Daniher 13 1 0 Darcy Gardiner 2 0 0 Eric Hipwood 5 0 0

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Christian Petracca 25 3 5 Max Gawn 21 4 5 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 2 5 Steven May 10 2 4 Clayton Oliver 9 1 5 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 5 Jack Viney 5 1 5 Judd McVee 5 1 5 Kysaiah Pickett 4 1 4 Jake Lever 3 1 5 Kade Chandler 2 1 5 Jack Billings 1 1 5 Trent Rivers 1 1 5 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 Christian Petracca 25 • 5 10 • 10 Max Gawn 21 • 7 2 8 4 Alex Neal-Bullen 12 • • 4 8 • Steven May 10 • 7 • 3 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 Kysaiah Pickett 4 • 4 • • Jake Lever 3 • • • • 3 Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • Trent Rivers 1 • • • 1 •