WheeloRatings

@binman not sure if you saw the above stats before the podcast, but I'll just draw your attention to them now.

Here are the season tallies for all Melbourne players: 23 Christian Petracca 22 Clayton Oliver 12 Brodie Grundy 11 Jake Lever 9 Kysaiah Pickett 8 Max Gawn 6 Ed Langdon 6 Jack Viney 4 Michael Hibberd 2 Tom McDonald 1 Kade Chandler 1 Lachie Hunter https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html

I should have made that clearer - the first number is Melbourne, the bolded number is the higher value.

I found out that the time in forward half stats are published in the Herald Sun, so I have subscribed to that and I'll see if it's worth keeping the subscription. I have added time in forward half and pressure for last night below. Also, I am able to calculate the score sources from one of my datasets so I have included that information below. Melbourne v Richmond https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230608 Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold. Pressure Q1: 173 - 187 Q2: 159 - 162 Q3: 154 - 171 Q4: 188 - 157 Tot: 168 - 169 Time in forward half 47% - 53% Score sources Centre bounce 2.0.12 - 1.3.9 Ball up 0.0.0 - 3.0.18 Throw in 2.0.12 - 1.0.6 Turnover 11.6.72 - 6.9.45 Kick-in 0.0.0 - 0.0.0 Expected scores 77 - 85 Score sources, Rounds 1 - 6 Centre bounce v WB: 2.0.12 - 0.1.1 v Bris: 1.0.6 - 2.1.13 v Syd: 3.3.21 - 2.4.16 v WC: 1.1.7 - 1.1.7 v Ess: 2.3.15 - 4.2.26 v Rich: 2.0.12 - 1.3.9 Ball up v WB: 0.3.3 - 1.1.7 v Bris: 1.0.6 - 3.0.18 v Syd: 2.1.13 - 2.1.13 v WC: 4.4.28 - 1.1.7 v Ess: 1.1.7 - 1.1.7 v Rich: 0.0.0 - 3.0.18 Throw in v WB: 2.1.13 - 2.0.12 v Bris: 3.0.18 - 4.1.25 v Syd: 3.0.18 - 2.1.13 v WC: 4.1.25 - 2.1.13 v Ess: 1.1.7 - 0.2.2 v Rich: 2.0.12 - 1.0.6 Turnover v WB: 11.9.75 - 5.9.39 v Bris: 7.4.46 - 5.7.37 v Syd: 13.4.82 - 5.6.36 v WC: 10.6.66 - 4.5.29 v Ess: 5.6.36 - 10.9.69 v Rich: 11.6.72 - 6.9.45 Kick-in v WB: 2.0.12 - 1.0.6 v Bris: 1.0.6 - 0.0.0 v Syd: 0.0.0 - 1.0.6 v WC: 0.0.0 - 1.1.7 v Ess: 2.0.12 - 0.0.0 v Rich: 0.0.0 - 0.0.0

@binman FYI, team stats for individual matches are now available on the Match Stats page: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230505

I'm looking at adding the overall team stats for individual matches to the Match Stats page, and this would include total team metres gained. Although unfortunately I don't think I have access to the time in forward half stats. If I get it, I'll include it on the site.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend. Source: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-5-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/4f9d285140f1064353234930b2d313a4 Several of the Squiggle models have similar "Power Rankings" here, each with its own methodology: https://squiggle.com.au/power-rankings/

Match stats are now available my site: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230105 Centre Bounce Attendance % Ruck Contest %

For those who aren't aware, I manage a website Wheelo Ratings that has a range of AFL stats available. I have added quite a bit of functionality since last season, including player and team stats back to 2012, individual player profiles, match stats, and interactive charts. Here are some of the key pages and features. I will probably add new functionality as the season progresses but if anyone has any suggested features, let me know. Player Stats (2012-) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Key features: View all statistical categories or save your favourites. Includes 60+ stats, including AFL player ratings, coaches votes, centre bounce attendances, one-on-one contests, ruck contests and all your usual stats. Filter by team, position, etc. Interactive scatter plot, with the option of highlighting players from a particular team. Download data as csv file. Team Stats (2012-) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html Key features: Team averages, opposition averages, differential. Interactive scatter plot. Download data as csv file. Match Stats (2012-) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html Key features: View specific match or all matches for a particular round. Interactive scatter plot. Download data as csv file. Grand Final 2021: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20212701 Player Profiles (players who have played AFL since 2012) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html Key features: View stats for each season, including overall career. Trend chart by season. Compare a player with up to four other players. Search for players or navigate from links on player stats and other relevant pages. Clayton Oliver: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=2db9dd Christian Petracca: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=231162 Max Gawn: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=22f360 Jack Viney: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=22f8be Steven May: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=22ce7d Bayley Fritsch: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=14074de Angus Brayshaw: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=2311a7 Team Annual Summary (1897-) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_annual_summary.html Key features: View win/loss records and team ratings for all seasons in VFL/AFL history. Interactive scatter plot.

The AFL website and app have a Brownlow Tracker where you can see the full leaderboard.

They generally didn't have consistently dominant players, at least statistically. That, and the fact they didn't have dominant wins, the team as a whole may not poll as many votes as a 16 win team would typically poll. I have Crisp and N. Daicos polling the most for Collingwood.

Here are my model's predictions based on in-game statistics. https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow.html

Haha I'm not taking that bet! Binman said he'll discuss it on the podcast and he's a far better analyst of the game than I am 😉

Yes it is interesting - I'm not sure whether it reflects a true improvement in accuracy or it's a reflection of location of shots being taken.

Yes there have been some changes in the overall competition averages, but also the distribution of values for particular stats across the 18 teams may be different this year with two particularly weak teams this season. Here are some of the notable changes (in AFL-wide team averages) from 2021 (including finals) to 2022 to date: Goals up from 11.5 to 12.1 Shots at goal up from 24.3 to 24.8 Accuracy up from 47.4% to 48.7% Inside 50s up from 51.4 to 52.3 Metres gained up from 5542 to 5814 Metres gained per disposal up from 15.2 to 16.2 Clangers up from 57.1 to 60.2 Hit-outs up from 34.4 to 35.7 (due to an increase in ruck contests from 85.4 to 89.4) Uncontested possessions down from 223.9 to 217.3 One-on-one contests down from 17.3 to 15.3 Marks down from 94.6 to 92.1 Contested marks down from 11.5 to 10.7 Marks inside forward 50 down from 11.5 to 11.1 Marks on lead down from 7.9 to 7.3 Play on % from kick-ins up from 82.8% to 85.3%

Just to add to my previous post, here is the summary for the past two home and away seasons for Melbourne.

Thanks @binman I look forward to the discussion. I agree it wouldn't have much impact on the overall methodology.

Thanks @Watson11 Yes that's definitely an issue. I guess the best you could do to minimise the effect of the uneven fixture is take the average of the double up matches so each team gets an average per opponent, then take an average across the 17 opponents.

FWIW I have Clayton Oliver just ahead of Lachie Neale on my Brownlow Medal model predictions. It is only based on in-game statistics, not media/coaches votes so will be somewhat limited, but I think Oliver is definitely in with a shot. https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_brownlow.html

End of Home and Away Season Update Firstly, thanks @Demonland @binman @george_on_the_outer for briefly touching on this thread in last week's podcast. Here is an update to the Premiership Metrics following the end of the home and away season. I have updated the methodology to look at the past ten premiers in home and away matches only and removed some measures which were effectively duplicates. I have also grouped the metrics into categories to make the tables easier to read. With these updates, there are 20 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6. Eight of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 17 of these 20 categories (the Western Bulldogs in 2016 and West Coast in 2018 ranked in the top 6 in 14 categories). "Premiership Metrics" ranked in the top 6 in 2022 (out of 20) 19: Geelong 19: Melbourne 14: Sydney 11: Fremantle 10: Richmond 10: Brisbane 8: Collingwood 8: Western Bulldogs What are the Premiership Metrics? Where do teams ranks against these metrics in 2022? Melbourne Here are Melbourne's rankings for rounds 1-10, 11-19, 20-23 for both 2021 and 2022 and finals in 2021. In addition to the so-called "Premiership metrics" (in bold), I have included several other stats of interest. If anyone has any requests for inclusion of additional stats (from https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html), let me know. Please note that Melbourne's comparatively harder fixture in the second half of this season compared to last season will have an impact on the rankings.

Thanks @Hellish Inferno I will posting an update soon. I will also look at Melbourne's rankings for rounds 1-10, 11-19 and 20-23 for this season and last season, and finals last year.

Thanks! I re-ran the analysis for just home and away matches and looked at teams that did not win the premiership, and dominating these metrics certainly doesn't guarantee a premiership. The updated H&A version has 25 metrics - Hawthorn 2012 were #1 in 13 metrics, Geelong 2013 were #1 in 11, Adelaide 2017 were #1 in 10. Also, Richmond 2018 and Geelong 2013 were top 6 in all 25.

What do the last ten premiership teams have in common? They were all ranked in the top 6 in the following statistical categories in their premiership year: Shots at goal differential (all ranked top 4) Total points conceded Opposition shots at goal Opposition goals Percentage Inside 50s Following on from the thread H&A % as an indicator of team chances to win Finals, I decided to look at what stats (including percentage) recent premiership teams have in common using a somewhat simplistic methodology. I have analysed the ranks of the last ten premiership teams against a large number of statistical categories in their premiership year. There are 26 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6. The list of the 26 categories are in the images at the end of this post. Nine of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 21 of these 26 categories (the Western Bulldogs ranked in the top 6 in 18 categories in 2016). Melbourne ranked number 1 in 16 of these categories last year, more than any other premiership team in the last ten years. There are currently three standout teams this season for these "premiership metrics" - Geelong, Melbourne and Sydney. "Premiership Metrics" ranked in the top 6 in 2022 25: Geelong ⭐ 24: Melbourne ⭐ 19: Sydney ⭐ 14: Brisbane 14: Richmond 13: Fremantle 11: Collingwood 10: Western Bulldogs 8: Carlton What are the Premiership Metrics? Where do teams ranks against these metrics in 2022?

Win Production Function: http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2011/5/22/win-production-functions-for-afl-teams-1897-to-2010.html