WheeloRatings

Here is each team's last 90+ point loss: Melb 2024 R12 WC 2024 R11 Rich 2024 R10 Ess 2023 R23 NM 2023 R7 Syd 2023 R6 Carl 2021 R22 GC 2021 R20 St K 2021 R10 Frem 2019 R16 Adel 2018 R10 Bris 2018 R4 Coll 2015 R21 Geel 2014 R11 GWS 2014 R10 WB 2012 R10 Port 2011 R21 Haw 2006 R11

Yes, 82 weeks and it's the longest streak since Geelong 2007-2011 when they spent 107 weeks in the top 8.

You don't need to convince me that once in 75 years is not good odds.

Port Adelaide lost by 92 points in round 8 2004 - one of three VFL/AFL teams to lose by 90+ points and win the premiership in the same season (Carlton 1945 and Essendon 1949 are the other two).

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 46 8 11 Christian Petracca 36 5 11 Jake Lever 17 3 10 Steven May 15 4 10 Alex Neal-Bullen 13 3 11 Clayton Oliver 9 1 11 Jack Viney 9 2 11 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 11 Kysaiah Pickett 8 2 9 Adam Tomlinson 5 1 2 Christian Salem 5 1 8 Judd McVee 5 1 11 Trent Rivers 5 2 11 Daniel Turner 4 1 3 Tom McDonald 4 1 10 Ed Langdon 3 2 10 Kade Chandler 2 1 11 Harrison Petty 1 1 9 Jack Billings 1 1 10 Jacob van Rooyen 1 1 10 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 Max Gawn 46 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 3 • • 10 Christian Petracca 36 • 5 10 • 10 • • • 10 • 1 Jake Lever 17 • • • • 3 • 9 5 • • Steven May 15 • 7 • 3 • 2 3 • • • Alex Neal-Bullen 13 • • 4 8 • • • • 1 • • Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • • • • • Jack Viney 9 5 • • • • • • • • • 4 Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 8 • 4 • • • 4 • • • Adam Tomlinson 5 • 5 Christian Salem 5 • • • • • • • 5 Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • • • • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 • • • • Daniel Turner 4 4 • • Tom McDonald 4 • • • • • • • • • 4 Ed Langdon 3 • • • • • • 2 • 1 • Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • • • • • Harrison Petty 1 • • • • • 1 • • • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • • • • • Jacob van Rooyen 1 • • • • • • • • • 1

Melbourne v St Kilda (Round 11, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241108 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 75.3 73.2 +2.0 Kicking Efficiency 70.2 60.0 +10.2 Metres Gained 6745 6009 +736 Inside 50s 67 41 +26 Shots At Goal 29 20 +9 Shots Per Inside 50 43.3 48.8 -5.5 Contested Possessions 129 123 +6 Ground Ball Gets 70 91 -21 Intercepts 80 66 +14 Intercept Marks 19 13 +6 Centre Clearances 14 9 +5 Stoppage Clearances 20 22 -2 Contested Marks 16 8 +8 Marks Inside 50 15 12 +3 Hitouts 38 20 +18 Hitouts To Advantage 10 6 +4 Tackles 44 41 +3 Tackles Inside 50 11 4 +7 Def One On One Loss % 7.7 36.4 -28.7 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Melbourne's Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 5 4 +1 Loose Ball Get 7 6 +1 Other 10 6 +4 Total 22 16 +6 Melbourne's Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 1 2 -1 Loose Ball Get 8 22 -14 Other 6 5 +1 Total 15 29 -14 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 13 12 +1 Loose Ball Get 39 58 -19 Other 35 22 +13 Total 87 92 -5 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 5 5 0 Loose Ball Get 13 16 -3 Other 24 10 +14 Total 42 31 +11 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Other includes contested marks, free kicks, contested knock ons, gathers from hitouts, and ruck hard ball gets. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 99.2 100 2 83% +15.8 +38 +22.2 St Kilda 83.4 62 3 17% Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 29 14.14.98 48.3% 97.2 +0.8 3.35 +0.03 St Kilda 20 9.5.59 45.0% 80.4 −21.4 4.02 −1.07 General Play Melbourne 14 8.6.54 57.1% 44.2 +9.8 3.16 +0.70 St Kilda 7 1.3.9 14.3% 21.9 −12.9 3.13 −1.84 Set Position Melbourne 15 6.8.44 40.0% 53.0 −9.0 3.53 −0.60 St Kilda 13 8.2.50 61.5% 58.5 −8.5 4.50 −0.65 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 171 180 2 169 155 3 192 157 4 167 146 Match 174 160 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Clayton Oliver 31 62 45.2 Alex Neal-Bullen 26 61 53.8 Jack Viney 25 59 62.7 Tom Sparrow 22 47 48.9 Kade Chandler 21 46 49.0 Kysaiah Pickett 23 46 43.2 Shane McAdam 14 33 27.5 Adam Tomlinson 14 27 22.5 Max Gawn 9 25 25.5 Lachie Hunter 13 21 21.0 Harrison Petty 9 20 28.7 Christian Petracca 9 19 34.4 Tom McDonald 10 19 23.4 Ed Langdon 9 17 30.4 Jacob van Rooyen 9 17 16.4 Caleb Windsor 8 16 31.5 Jake Bowey 9 15 13.5 Steven May 9 14 9.8 Christian Salem 9 13 27.8 Trent Rivers 7 13 22.5 Judd McVee 8 13 15.8 Bayley Fritsch 7 9 14.5 Taj Woewodin 2 2 13.2 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 68% 32% 2 44% 56% 3 49% 51% 4 57% 43% Match 54% 46% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 1.1.7 0.0.0 +7 Centre Bounce 3.0.18 0.0.0 +18 Stoppage (Other) 2.5.17 1.2.8 +9 Turnover 8.10.58 8.6.54 +4 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 7 3.4 0 2.0 Centre Bounce 18 13.1 0 7.3 Stoppage (Other) 17 24.0 8 17.7 Turnover 58 41.7 54 43.3 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 18 13.1 0 7.3 Kick-in D50 7 3.4 0 2.0 Stoppage (Other) D50 1 1.8 0 1.6 Stoppage (Other) Centre 0 2.5 1 2.4 Stoppage (Other) Wing 8 13.5 7 8.8 Stoppage (Other) F50 8 6.2 0 4.9 Turnover D50 13 7.6 25 8.2 Turnover Centre 14 7.1 12 6.1 Turnover Wing 29 19.4 15 23.3 Turnover F50 2 7.6 2 5.7 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 21 12.8 25 11.8 Centre 32 22.7 13 15.7 Wing 37 32.8 22 32.1 F50 10 13.8 2 10.6 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 21 12.8 25 11.8 Defensive midfield 27 19.5 25 15.9 Centre bounce 18 13.1 0 7.3 Attacking midfield 24 23.0 10 24.6 Forward 50 10 13.8 2 10.6 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 48 32.3 50 27.7 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by St Kilda. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 21 78% 84.2% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 20 74% 72.0% 81.4% Kysaiah Pickett 20 74% 32.9% 11.2% Christian Petracca 16 59% 59.5% 61.1% Jack Viney 13 48% 68.8% 72.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 11 41% 13.3% 2.1% Jacob van Rooyen 6 22% 13.7% 7.6% Tom Sparrow 1 4% 36.6% 44.9% Christian Salem 0 0% 24.5% 0.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 3.5% 0.7% Trent Rivers 0 0% 2.9% 3.0% Lachie Hunter 0 0% 0.0% 0.2% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 1.5% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 63 81% 82.0% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 14 18% 14.2% 13.1% Harrison Petty 1 1% 4.3% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.2% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 63 34 8 28.0% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 14 4 2 31.4% 31.1% Harrison Petty 1 0 0 35.3% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Ben Brown 100.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Rowan Marshall 64 16 6 Anthony Caminiti 13 4 0 Mitch Owens 1 0 0

That doesn't look correct based on the numbers I have. I have them averaging 30.5 points from defensive half turnovers. Average points scored per match, by source and half, 2024 Team Kick-in Stoppage - Centre Stoppage - Defensive Stoppage - Forward Turnover - Defensive Turnover - Forward Sydney 3.7 10.2 6.6 20.2 30.5 31.6 Gold Coast 1.9 13.9 6.8 12.8 29.3 27.5 St Kilda 2.2 9.4 4.8 10.8 28.5 16.5 Greater Western Sydney 4.9 12.5 7.5 13.6 25.7 28.3 Geelong 5.5 15.0 7.0 14.8 25.6 27.5 Adelaide 6.3 10.2 4.8 13.4 23.3 20.3 Essendon 3.2 12.3 7.1 16.3 22.4 23.2 Brisbane 4.0 9.9 5.7 18.0 22.3 24.7 Western Bulldogs 5.0 13.7 4.7 21.0 22.3 26.0 Fremantle 2.9 11.3 6.5 14.3 19.8 21.9 North Melbourne 2.8 9.2 4.6 12.5 19.6 19.0 Collingwood 2.8 12.4 6.2 18.1 18.6 29.2 Carlton 3.6 13.1 7.3 17.0 18.0 33.2 Melbourne 3.0 12.6 9.8 14.9 17.9 22.2 Richmond 5.3 4.3 5.6 10.2 17.5 19.3 Port Adelaide 7.2 14.5 7.8 14.4 16.8 29.3 Hawthorn 3.9 7.9 5.5 13.8 16.5 23.3 West Coast 6.5 11.6 6.7 14.8 13.8 18.9 Average points conceded per match, by source and opponent half, 2024 Team Kick-in Stoppage - Centre Stoppage - Defensive Stoppage - Forward Turnover - Defensive Turnover - Forward North Melbourne 3.1 17.2 8.7 16.5 37.3 36.3 Richmond 9.2 13.8 6.2 16.9 28.5 29.7 Essendon 3.3 12.2 4.5 12.1 24.9 24.8 Carlton 4.5 13.5 6.9 21.8 24.8 18.8 Collingwood 5.8 8.1 6.6 13.0 23.9 23.6 Greater Western Sydney 2.7 12.2 7.2 12.5 23.1 22.4 Brisbane 3.8 8.3 4.9 15.4 22.5 17.9 West Coast 5.3 16.1 6.9 22.4 21.7 21.4 Geelong 3.3 14.2 6.3 19.8 21.6 19.9 Port Adelaide 6.1 9.8 6.8 13.4 19.9 25.0 Western Bulldogs 4.5 9.8 8.0 10.2 19.7 24.2 Gold Coast 2.6 9.3 4.9 14.2 19.2 31.5 Hawthorn 3.3 14.4 8.1 18.7 18.7 27.0 St Kilda 5.0 7.6 8.1 11.2 18.4 26.4 Melbourne 2.2 8.0 5.3 13.4 18.0 24.2 Adelaide 2.8 11.5 7.3 15.1 16.5 24.3 Fremantle 3.2 8.3 5.0 13.5 16.3 22.3 Sydney 4.1 10.1 3.4 12.6 15.1 23.3

I have just added a page to the website where you can view team stats for a particular team for all matches back to 2012 on one page. Here's the link for all Melbourne's matches: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats_team.html?ID=melb

Scores from stoppages, including centre bounce and around the ground stoppages, by quarter Quarter Score Against Diff 1 1.0.6 1.2.8 -2 2 4.0.24 1.2.8 +16 3 3.1.19 1.0.6 +13 4 1.1.7 2.1.13 -6 All score sources, by quarter Quarter Score Against Diff Kick-in 1 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 2 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 3 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 4 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 1 0.0.0 1.1.7 -7 2 2.0.12 0.0.0 +12 3 1.1.7 0.0.0 +7 4 1.0.6 0.0.0 +6 Stoppage (Other) 1 1.0.6 0.1.1 +5 2 2.0.12 1.2.8 +4 3 2.0.12 1.0.6 +6 4 0.1.1 2.1.13 -12 Turnover 1 1.1.7 3.1.19 -12 2 0.0.0 2.3.15 -15 3 0.6.6 4.0.24 -18 4 0.1.1 2.0.12 -11

Worst season.

First match since Round 9 2020 where no Melbourne player polled any coaches votes.

That was Melbourne's fewest inside 50s since 2015 (excluding 2020 with shorter quarters). Melbourne's worst inside 50 differential, 2021-2024 -21 v WC, R10 2024 -21 v Port, R3 2024 -20 v Geel, R17 2022 -14 v Syd, R0 2024 Melbourne's worst differential in points from turnovers, 2021-2024 -56 v WC, R10 2024 (14 v 70)* -50 v Syd, R12 2022 (5 v 55) -40 v Syd, R24 2022 (30 v 70) -35 v Frem, R11 2022 (24 v 59) * Equal 2nd most pts conceded from turnovers and 2nd fewest points scored from turnovers from 2021-2024. Melbourne v West Coast (Round 10, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20241009 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 66.9 77.2 -10.3 Kicking Efficiency 58.4 74.1 -15.7 Metres Gained 5069 5935 -866 Inside 50s 36 57 -21 Shots At Goal 21 31 -10 Shots Per Inside 50 58.3 54.4 +3.9 Contested Possessions 123 123 +0 Ground Ball Gets 82 84 -2 Intercepts 60 69 -9 Intercept Marks 10 19 -9 Centre Clearances 13 15 -2 Stoppage Clearances 28 21 +7 Contested Marks 7 15 -8 Marks Inside 50 9 13 -4 Hitouts 42 29 +13 Hitouts To Advantage 14 7 +7 Tackles 67 63 +4 Tackles Inside 50 9 22 -13 Def One On One Loss % 20.0 30.0 -10.0 Contested Possessions For Against Diff Defensive 50 Hard Ball Get 9 3 +6 Loose Ball Get 16 9 +7 Other 9 3 +6 Total 34 15 +19 Forward 50 Hard Ball Get 1 3 -2 Loose Ball Get 7 15 -8 Other 8 11 -3 Total 16 29 -13 Post clearance Hard Ball Get 10 13 -3 Loose Ball Get 42 44 -2 Other 16 26 -10 Total 68 83 -15 Pre clearance Hard Ball Get 14 8 +6 Loose Ball Get 16 19 -3 Other 25 13 +12 Total 55 40 +15 Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative. Other includes contested marks, free kicks, contested knock ons, gathers from hitouts, and ruck hard ball gets. Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 65.2 70 3 1% +5.3 West Coast 105.5 105 1 99% +40.3 +35 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 21 10.7.67 47.6% 62.2 +4.8 2.96 +0.23 West Coast 31 16.8.104 51.6% 104.5 −0.5 3.37 −0.02 General Play Melbourne 9 3.4.22 33.3% 21.2 +0.8 2.36 +0.08 West Coast 15 6.3.39 40.0% 44.2 −5.2 2.95 −0.35 Set Position Melbourne 12 7.3.45 58.3% 41.0 +4.0 3.41 +0.34 West Coast 16 10.5.65 62.5% 60.3 +4.7 3.77 +0.29 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 205 175 2 180 207 3 176 164 4 171 208 Match 184 189 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 28 77 63.1 Kade Chandler 21 52 49.3 Clayton Oliver 23 52 43.5 Alex Neal-Bullen 24 48 53.1 Christian Salem 26 48 29.9 Harrison Petty 20 48 29.8 Kysaiah Pickett 21 45 42.9 Trent Rivers 14 38 23.5 Tom Sparrow 13 29 49.1 Caleb Windsor 12 27 33.0 Taj Woewodin 10 24 14.6 Tom McDonald 10 22 23.9 Shane McAdam 10 22 22.0 Jack Billings 10 20 25.0 Jake Bowey 6 17 13.0 Ben Brown 7 17 10.3 Christian Petracca 7 15 35.9 Judd McVee 7 14 16.1 Bayley Fritsch 7 13 15.0 Max Gawn 5 12 25.5 Blake Howes 5 11 18.7 Steven May 6 8 9.3 Jake Lever 1 2 15.7 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 43% 57% 2 31% 69% 3 69% 31% 4 26% 74% Match 41% 59% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 4.1.25 1.1.7 +18 Stoppage (Other) 5.1.31 4.4.28 +3 Turnover 1.8.14 11.4.70 -56 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 3.0 0 2.2 Centre Bounce 25 12.6 7 8.0 Stoppage (Other) 31 24.7 28 18.7 Turnover 14 40.1 70 42.2 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 25 12.6 7 8.0 Kick-in D50 0 3.0 0 2.2 Stoppage (Other) D50 6 1.9 0 1.8 Stoppage (Other) Centre 12 2.8 13 2.5 Stoppage (Other) Wing 12 14.0 6 9.0 Stoppage (Other) F50 1 6.0 9 5.4 Turnover D50 0 7.1 6 6.5 Turnover Centre 2 6.4 6 5.5 Turnover Wing 5 18.4 34 24.1 Turnover F50 7 8.2 24 6.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 6 12.0 6 10.5 Centre 39 21.8 26 16.0 Wing 17 32.4 40 33.1 F50 8 14.2 33 11.5 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 6 12.0 6 10.5 Defensive midfield 8 18.7 26 15.0 Centre bounce 25 12.6 7 8.0 Attacking midfield 23 22.9 33 26.1 Forward 50 8 14.2 33 11.5 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 14 30.7 32 25.5 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by West Coast. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Clayton Oliver 24 80% 71.8% 81.4% Max Gawn 23 77% 84.9% 64.9% Jack Viney 21 70% 71.0% 72.1% Christian Petracca 19 63% 59.5% 61.1% Christian Salem 10 33% 28.2% 0.0% Kysaiah Pickett 8 27% 27.5% 11.2% Alex Neal-Bullen 8 27% 10.3% 2.1% Harrison Petty 7 23% 4.0% 0.7% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 40.1% 44.9% Trent Rivers 0 0% 3.2% 3.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Jacob van Rooyen 12.6% 7.6% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 1.5% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 66 73% 82.2% 57.5% Harrison Petty 23 26% 4.6% 2.0% Ben Brown 1 1% 0.2% 2.3% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 13.9% 13.1% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 66 28 7 28.5% 30.1% Harrison Petty 23 13 6 35.3% 25.0% Ben Brown 1 1 1 100.0% 0.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Jacob van Rooyen 29.0% 31.1% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Bailey J. Williams 67 24 5 Jack Williams 17 4 2 Jack Darling 5 1 0 Tom Barrass 1 0 0

Coaches Votes for Melbourne players, 2024 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html Votes Matches Polled Matches Max Gawn 36 7 9 Christian Petracca 35 4 9 Jake Lever 17 3 9 Steven May 15 4 8 Alex Neal-Bullen 13 3 9 Clayton Oliver 9 1 9 Bayley Fritsch 8 1 9 Kysaiah Pickett 8 2 7 Jack Viney 5 1 9 Judd McVee 5 1 9 Trent Rivers 5 2 9 Daniel Turner 4 1 3 Ed Langdon 3 2 9 Kade Chandler 2 1 9 Harrison Petty 1 1 7 Jack Billings 1 1 9 Round-by-round votes Votes 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Max Gawn 36 • 7 2 8 4 3 9 3 • Christian Petracca 35 • 5 10 • 10 • • • 10 Jake Lever 17 • • • • 3 • 9 5 • Steven May 15 • 7 • 3 • 2 3 • Alex Neal-Bullen 13 • • 4 8 • • • • 1 Clayton Oliver 9 • 9 • • • • • • • Bayley Fritsch 8 • • 8 • • • • • • Kysaiah Pickett 8 • 4 • • • 4 • Jack Viney 5 5 • • • • • • • • Judd McVee 5 • • • • 5 • • • • Trent Rivers 5 • • • 1 • • 4 • • Daniel Turner 4 4 • • Ed Langdon 3 • • • • • • 2 • 1 Kade Chandler 2 • • 2 • • • • • • Harrison Petty 1 • • • • • 1 • Jack Billings 1 • 1 • • • • • • •

Here is the game-by-game contested possessions for this season. 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Post clearance Contested Knock On -1 +1 0 +5 -4 +1 -2 -2 +2 Contested Mark -5 +3 +7 -4 +9 +4 +3 +8 -3 Free For +2 0 -1 +6 -6 -9 +7 +5 -4 Hard Ball Get +5 -3 -2 0 -9 -2 +7 +1 -2 Hard Ball Get Crumb +3 +2 -1 0 +5 -1 0 -3 -4 Loose Ball Get +3 -12 -1 -9 +1 +4 -2 -9 +5 Loose Ball Get Crumb -3 +4 -8 +7 +1 -3 -2 -4 +1 Total +4 -5 -6 +5 -3 -6 +11 -4 -5 Pre clearance Contested Knock On -4 -4 +2 +1 +2 -1 +1 +4 0 Free For 0 +1 0 0 -2 -2 +2 -1 +1 Gather From Hitout -4 +5 +3 +10 +8 +4 0 -5 0 Hard Ball Get +4 +3 +5 +2 -7 -6 +4 +3 -3 Loose Ball Get -1 -7 +6 -22 +6 -13 +1 0 +1 Ruck Hard Ball Get 0 +7 +2 +2 -2 +11 -2 +6 -2 Total -5 +5 +18 -7 +5 -7 +6 +7 -3 https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ Contested Knock-On: Using the hand to knock the ball to a teammate’s advantage rather than attempting to take possession from a contested situation. Crumb: A type of groundball-gets that is won by a player at ground level after a marking contest. The players must not be involved in the original contest. Crumbing Possessions can be either hardball or looseball-gets. Gather From Hitout: A possession gained from a teammate’s hitout-to-advantage. Counted as a contested possession.

Cheers layzie. Yes, I'll aim to post the game-by-game in the next couple of days.

Melbourne v Carlton (Round 9, 2024) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20240901 Key Team Stats Stats highlighted purple were won by Melbourne. Stat For Against Diff Disposal Efficiency 68.5 67.4 +1.1 Kicking Efficiency 63.1 62.3 +0.8 Metres Gained 5904 5668 +236 Inside 50s 61 41 +20 Shots At Goal 23 15 +8 Shots Per Inside 50 37.7 36.6 +1.1 Contested Possessions 146 154 -8 Ground Ball Gets 104 106 -2 Intercepts 84 82 +2 Intercept Marks 18 18 +0 Centre Clearances 10 14 -4 Stoppage Clearances 30 28 +2 Contested Marks 9 12 -3 Marks Inside 50 9 7 +2 Hitouts 51 32 +19 Hitouts To Advantage 10 11 -1 Tackles 86 68 +18 Tackles Inside 50 16 9 +7 Def One On One Loss % 33.3 33.3 +0.0 Expected scores xScore Score Rushed xWin % xMargin Margin Swing Melbourne 78.2 76 4 94% +23.7 Carlton 54.5 77 3 6% +1 +24.7 Team Shots Score Accuracy xScore +/- xSc. / Shot Shot Rating Overall Melbourne 23 11.6.72 47.8% 74.2 −2.2 3.23 −0.10 Carlton 15 12.2.74 80.0% 51.5 +22.5 3.44 +1.50 General Play Melbourne 14 5.4.34 35.7% 41.3 −7.3 2.95 −0.52 Carlton 7 6.1.37 85.7% 24.4 +12.6 3.48 +1.80 Set Position Melbourne 9 6.2.38 66.7% 32.9 +5.1 3.65 +0.57 Carlton 8 6.1.37 75.0% 27.2 +9.8 3.39 +1.23 xWin %: win probability based on expected scores. Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin. xScore: total expected score from all shots taken. +/-: total score above or below expected score. xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty. Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal. Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores. Pressure Team pressure Quarter For Against 1 186 200 2 189 163 3 217 209 4 221 201 Match 202 194 Source: Herald Sun Most Pressure Points Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ ) Player Pressure Acts Pressure Points Season Average Jack Viney 40 92 61.6 Alex Neal-Bullen 32 87 53.7 Kade Chandler 26 67 49.0 Clayton Oliver 22 55 42.6 Kysaiah Pickett 27 51 42.6 Tom Sparrow 20 47 51.3 Harrison Petty 18 39 27.1 Christian Petracca 13 36 38.2 Ed Langdon 17 32 31.9 Caleb Windsor 11 29 33.7 Tom McDonald 11 27 24.1 Bayley Fritsch 10 26 15.2 Jake Lever 8 23 17.2 Jacob van Rooyen 11 23 16.3 Jack Billings 10 22 25.6 Judd McVee 8 22 16.3 Trent Rivers 9 20 21.9 Max Gawn 7 19 27.0 Daniel Turner 5 13 11.7 Blake Howes 6 12 19.6 Jake Bowey 4 11 11.0 Steven May 3 5 9.5 Taj Woewodin 1 4 13.3 Source: Herald Sun Time in Forward Half Quarter For Against 1 53% 47% 2 50% 50% 3 51% 49% 4 76% 24% Match 59% 41% Source: Match total sourced from the Herald Sun; quarter values are my own calculations. Score Sources Summary Category Score Against Diff Kick-in 0.0.0 0.0.0 +0 Centre Bounce 2.0.12 5.0.30 -18 Stoppage (Other) 4.3.27 2.2.14 +13 Turnover 5.6.36 5.2.32 +4 Score Source For Against Match Season Match Season * Kick-in 0 3.3 0 2.4 Centre Bounce 12 11.2 30 8.1 Stoppage (Other) 27 24.0 14 17.7 Turnover 36 43.0 32 39.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Chain start region Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective. Category Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Centre Bounce Centre 12 11.2 30 8.1 Kick-in D50 0 3.3 0 2.4 Stoppage (Other) D50 0 1.4 0 2.0 Stoppage (Other) Centre 1 1.8 0 1.3 Stoppage (Other) Wing 20 14.2 7 9.3 Stoppage (Other) F50 6 6.6 7 5.0 Turnover D50 0 7.9 6 6.6 Turnover Centre 8 6.9 13 5.4 Turnover Wing 27 19.9 12 23.0 Turnover F50 1 8.3 1 4.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * D50 0 12.7 6 11.0 Centre 21 19.9 43 14.9 Wing 47 34.1 19 32.3 F50 7 14.9 8 9.1 Region For Against Match Season Match Season * Defensive 50 0 12.7 6 11.0 Defensive midfield 26 19.9 19 13.8 Centre bounce 12 11.2 30 8.1 Attacking midfield 30 22.9 13 25.3 Forward 50 7 14.9 8 9.1 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Points from defensive half For Against Match Season Match Season * 26 32.6 25 24.8 * Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Carlton. Centre Bounce Attendances CBAs CBA % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 24 89% 86.0% 64.9% Clayton Oliver 21 78% 70.7% 81.4% Tom Sparrow 17 63% 45.5% 44.9% Jack Viney 16 59% 71.2% 72.1% Alex Neal-Bullen 14 52% 8.1% 2.1% Christian Petracca 8 30% 59.0% 61.1% Kysaiah Pickett 5 19% 27.6% 11.2% Jacob van Rooyen 3 11% 12.6% 7.6% Trent Rivers 0 0% 3.6% 3.0% Harrison Petty 0 0% 0.6% 0.7% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 5.7% Christian Salem 27.2% 0.0% Josh Schache 8.3% 0.0% Koltyn Tholstrup 8.3% Charlie Spargo 4.2% 0.0% Bailey Laurie 1.5% 0.0% Ruck Contests and Hitouts Ruck Contests Ruck Contests RC % 2024 % 2023 % Max Gawn 91 84% 83.1% 57.5% Jacob van Rooyen 12 11% 13.9% 13.1% Harrison Petty 5 5% 1.7% 2.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0% 0.0% 0.4% Clayton Oliver 0 0% 0.0% 0.1% Steven May 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Tom McDonald 0 0% 0.0% 9.3% Tom Sparrow 0 0% 0.0% 0.0% Josh Schache 13.3% 4.1% Ben Brown 0.0% 2.3% Hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. To Adv. % (2024) To Adv. % (2023) Max Gawn 91 45 9 28.7% 30.1% Jacob van Rooyen 12 4 1 29.0% 31.1% Harrison Petty 5 2 0 0.0% 25.0% Alex Neal-Bullen 0 0 0 0.0% Christian Petracca 0 0 0 100.0% Tom McDonald 0 0 0 20.0% Josh Schache 100.0% 0.0% Ben Brown 0.0% Opposition hitouts Ruck Contests Hitouts To Adv. Marc Pittonet 72 21 8 Tom De Koning 36 11 3

@binman To add to the above, here are the pre- and post-clearance contested possession differentials by type of contested possessions. The most notable drop post clearance is in loose ball gets (disputed ball at ground level not under direct physical pressure that results in an opportunity to record a legal disposal). 2021 2022 2023 2024 Post clearance Contested Knock On -25 -17 +11 -2 Contested Mark +72 +35 +30 +25 Free For +1 -4 +13 +4 Hard Ball Get +33 +3 +11 -3 Hard Ball Get Crumb -7 +47 +27 +5 Loose Ball Get +26 +87 +2 -25 Loose Ball Get Crumb +134 +78 +58 -8 Pre clearance Contested Knock On -14 -6 -3 +1 Free For -21 +2 +5 -2 Gather From Hitout +122 +43 +54 +21 Hard Ball Get +14 +79 +16 +8 Loose Ball Get -75 -27 -20 -30 Ruck Hard Ball Get +40 +28 +54 +24 As you and @Binmans PA mentioned on the podcast thread, this may not be such an important stat for Melbourne this season.

I did see it and I did actually respond 😊 I included some numbers in the post with several qualifiers - let me know if you'd like me to dig deeper or cut the data a different way.

The low number of stoppages in the second quarter would definitely explain the low pressure. The ESPN Footy podcast (with Champion Data) have talked about pre-clearance pressure being much higher than post-clearance pressure. Here is an excerpt from an article from 2018: "Champion Data measures the statistic in two ways — pre-clearance pressure and post-clearance (or general play) pressure. "It’s easier to apply pressure at stoppages by virtue of the fact it’s a congested area. "But squeezing the opposition in open play is the real art form, which is why the AFL pressure rating average pre-clearance is 256 and post-clearance is only 164."

That was partly my point - that you can use it in conjunction with actual score and number of shots to derive useful metrics. Ok, maybe not so insightful, but still useful. And it's a good thing to be able to use data to quantify things that your eye tells you. It's certainly flawed, but that doesn't mean it's irrelevant. Re the expected scores ladder, they literally have "free kick" ladders which people use as evidence of bad or biased umpiring. Expected scores are more meaningful than free kick counts. But I agree it's overdone in the media. You are correct, it doesn't take any of that into account.

Ah, but how do you define/measure "bad kicking"? Teams will always miss some shots at goal - at what point do you say it was bad kicking? It's not about celebrating an expected score win, it's about understanding where/how you lost the game. Expected scores helps to differentiate whether you were getting good shots on goal but not executing, or you weren't getting enough good shots at goal. I would hope the post-game analysis by coaching staff is more in depth than "we lost, let's not do that next time".

It's clearly not a meaningless or bad stat if the clubs put a lot of stock in it. Can you say that a team should have won a match because they won on expected scores by a small margin? No, you can't. So articles like the above from Fox Sports don't really help with interpretation of expected scores. Goalkicking is not entirely about "who performs under pressure" - there's an element of that, but there is also an element of luck with goalkicking. Regardless, expected scores provide two very useful and insightful metrics (even completely ignoring the "who should have won" perspective). Average expected score per shot This metric is a measure of average shot difficulty. Melbourne supporters bemoan Melbourne's strategy of kicking it to the pocket because it leads to more difficult shots. This metrics quantifies this. Melbourne rank 18th for average shot difficulty in 2024 (16th last year) and 18th for set shots only (17th last year). Average difference between actual and expected score per shot This metric is a measure of goalkicking accuracy, and much better than raw accuracy (goals divided by shots). People already look at the final tally of goals and behinds and draw conclusions such as a team should have won by more or were lucky to win. Two recent examples are: - Essendon defeating West Coast 11.11 to 11.5 - Adelaide defeating Carlton 16.4 to 14.14 On the surface, you assume West Coast were lucky to get as close thanks to their accurate kicking and you assume Adelaide was very lucky to win thanks to their apparent ridiculously accurate kicking. - West Coast had 24 shots to 23 and won expected scores 89.9 to 80.7. - Adelaide had 25 shots to 26 (despite it being 20 "scores" to 28) and only lost expected scores 92.8 to 95.8.