Stu

Wrong thread

I think having Petty play as a defensive forward was a great move by Goodwin. It meant that when we Brown was subbed for Melksham we weren't undersized, leaving JVR to battle against either or both of the McCartin's. With the danger of Petty drawing one of their three talls away, it meant Melksham could be influential and do little things like in the link below... look for his bump on Paddy McCartin just as McCartin is about to jump to mark and spoil out to the pocket... https://app.screencast.com/WpHJunqcvKFf9

Given we’re playing Sunday, tonight’s team will likely include 4 ins and 1 out (Max). We know JVR is playing, so I think the other three will be May, Hibberd, and Jordan.

There was only three players over 30 that started the game (and only three that finished as Melksham replaced Gawn). We have six players in the 50-100 game category that are 21-23 years old, so 'experienced' doesn't necessarily mean old.

This is especially important against the Swans because Paddy McCartin is a great interceptor. JVR might not mark everything but he generally doesn't lose a marking contest. He often looks like he's out of the contest but somehow manages to force his way to spoiling or knocking his opponent off balance enough to effect a spillage.

Against the Hawks, the Swans used Ladham's as primary ruck and McLean as the chop out. I know this can be a useless stat but Ladham's (17) lost the hitout count to Meek (19) for the Hawks and McLean had five. Hickey and Reid are both out for a few more weeks with injury. Grundy managed to get 45 hit outs compared to the Lions 42 (25 for McInerney and 17 for Fort), so the stats at least imply that he should win against Ladhams. It will be up for our mids to make use of that advantage. Given that McLean is a forward first and a ruck second, bringing in JVR for his debut seems like it offers a few additional opportunities with minimal risks (to team structure). He and TMac can be used to give Grundy a rest, so both only spend 5-10% of the game as the primary ruck on the ground. They can also rotate their own rests, so that one of them is available to ruck inside our F50 when Grundy is back on the ground (to allow him to sit a kick behind the play). It also gives the Swans an unknown player to consider and the additional forward pressure JVR brings will change the dynamic of our forward line while he is in there. Having TMac in the side allows us to swing him into defence if we're trying to close out a quarter, slow momentum, or a KPD goes down during the game, without losing too much from our attack. If we don't bring in another tall, we will need to use Brown for our F50 ruck contests when TMac is off the ground, which means we lose him as an additional forward threat (and his goals from open play have been great in both games). Alternatively, we have Grundy come up into the F50 and we lose him from competing for a contested ball down the line. We'd also be down a tall forward when Grundy is having a rest and TMac goes into the ruck. This will allow Paddy M to intercept more easily.

When I look at the odds for the Swans game after we played so poorly, I did think there was a chance a stomach bug or something energy sapping went through the team the day of or day before, and the bookies got wind of this. I have zero evidence to support this, other than the incredibly unusual lack of effort/strength at contests across the ground. Which is also evidence of many other explanations, including just playing poorly 🙃

Just to add one more record: Melbourne have won 12 consecutive games interstate, when you include against neutral opposition like the 2021 finals series and the Alice Springs game last year. The last lost was when we played Collingwood in Sydney in Round 13, 2021 (that loss still cuts deep). If you want to count only away games played against interstate teams, we have won eight in a row, the last one being against Adelaide in Round 9, 2021 when we lost by a point. That's some fantastic away form.

I watch this at least twice a month! Love it.

A couple of records to watch if Fritsch and McDonald play on Friday: Bayley has kicked at least one goal in 29 consecutive games - he kicked one in the last 5 games of 2021, and he kicked a goal in every one of our 24 games last season. Tom has played in 15 consecutive wins - playing in the Round 20 win against Gold Coast in 2021, (missing Round 21 and 22 with a sore back) and coming back for the great win in Geelong, and the finals series. He then played in the first 9 rounds last year, all wins, and returned for the win in Round 1.

Max's mark and goal at the top of the square was able to happen because Tom did a great job of keeping his body between the contest and Sam Darcy. It doesn't look like much, but it takes a lot of strength and skill to do that and not give away a blocking free kick. If that's Weideman or another forward they probably try to fly for the contest and the mark and goal doesn't occur.

Out of all AFL teams we have one of the lists that will cause the Dogs headaches with their new approach. They will likely never use all 4 talls at once for various reasons already stated. We have 3 quality KPDs plus Gus who is a great mark for a medium sized defender. Max can float into defence if they’re getting on top offensively. There is also only so much space in the F50 available so it’s likely that a lot of contests will be large packs, and marks within them are rare. On the flip side, the dogs need to counter our dual AA rucks, and the 3 tall forwards when one of them rests forward with BBB and Tmac. That will mean Lobb giving English a break from the ruck, pulling one of their talls from attack, and possibly even requiring English or Lobb to float back to cover our resting ruck. The solution to their strategy is simply give them their own headaches to deal with. I believe we have the players and structure to do that.

Two things I loved today: Players taking time to assess their options, and not always handballing to the open player. Last year teams learnt to roll off their opponent to cover our outnumber. Today several players feigned to handball and then turned to open up the field. It was great to see. Pressuring ball carrier - last year we folded back a lot and let teams run the ball downfield. Today the team made sure to pressure whoever had or was about to take possession. The perfect example being when May made that huge tackle on the wing to halt a rebound by the Tiges. It was the result of 5 other players rolling off their man to pressure the next in line to receive possession. if was so good to see these adjustments 😁

Let's not let facts get in the way of a good ol' fashioned Demonland Mass Panic(TM) 😀

It’s certainly the case that they did well DESPITE missing Grundy not BECAUSE he was missing. People really struggle to process hypotheticals that go behind small simple variables.

He still says 'us' when talking about the Pies (understandably) so I think there's some history being re-written to justify the clubs decisions. He thinks that because Collingwood did well last year without Grundy, but they sorely need a key forward, McStay makes Collingwood stronger than if they had Grundy instead. He's not saying McStay is an objectively better player, just that McStay fills a need and that Cameron and the American fill the ruck 'need'. I disagree and think they could have played a lot better with Grundy in the side and that McStay won't be the silver bullet they think.

Good answer - it's probably the answer to both problems. We didn't have a problem generating F50 entries, but our conversion of them was very low. It's not surprising that when we lost, the opposition scored a lot from turnovers because we gave them a lot of opportunities to rebound from their D50 with poor decision making and skill execution. By having 4-5 accurate kicks in the team, for every additional quality entry into our F50 we're starving the opposition of a quick rebound. Even just the decision to be slower, more deliberate and not just a long bomb for McCarten, Howe, or Stewart to mark, reduces the volume of quick counter attacks we have to defend.

Sure thing Andy. I’ll repost this in the season preview podcast thread when it pops up. A question for tonight then… Based on Friday’s game, which player who has played 0 senior games for the Dees most excited you?

A question based on these points from last season: Our average points differential to round 10 was six goals (35.8 points), where a lot of teams chose a slower or a more contested style. We kicked two goals fewer per game and gave up three goals more per game from R11 onwards (point differential of 4.3 points), where a lot of teams adopted a faster style. Based on some subjective analysis I did on the style the opposition used to attack - the fast, risky style used by Collingwood, Hawks, Swans etc resulted in an average of 85 points against, compared to 60 for all other games where opposition attacks were less aggressive (over 4 quarters). If you could only choose one of the strategies below for the team to focus on which would it be, out of: Defending better against fast, corridor-based ball movement, such as with more intense F50 defensive pressure, or Attack more aggressively through the corridor, to generate better quality forward entries and (more than likely) score more goals. And you can't say both ok? 😄 Love your work guys! Note: Table showing breakdown of scores for and against Points For Points Against R1-10 93.8 58.0 R11-F2 81.9 77.6 Wins 94.4 58.6 Losses 71.6 91.1 Season 86.8 69.4

I expect him to show up on Home and Away as a surfer walking towards the bodacious waves.

I was standing in in the shady pocket at the southern end (wind was blowing towards me). My observations were: Hunter's disposal is going to be very valuable this year - he had some fantastic F50 entries, as well as some kicks into the corridor off half back that setup shots on goal. Max's ruck work was amazing at times Him and Grundy cover a lot of ground for big guys Ball movement was lightning quick at times, with a lot of quick hands There was some rusty moments, and brain fades as is expected for the first game of the year Lever looked in great form while he was playing JVR ensures he rarely loses a marking contest Our two way running was immense, especially in the heat We looked to have a 'slow it down' mode when the Saints built momentum McVee has great acceleration, lateral movement, and composure to go with good skills The Demon Army were in great voice, standing in the sun all game - @WalkingCivilWar you must all be pretty beat! Saw Tracc and Clarry leave the facility when we left in the 6th - I didn't expect them to drive out in a RAV4 and BT-50 with a taped on front guard 😄

But great signs for the season ahead if we win 😜

There was a few pretty basic mistakes in the list. I’m hoping that those mistakes don’t mean their predictions are similarly error riddled 😅

Zero Hanger have done 50 predictions for the 2023 season - this article shows their top 10 predictions. I'd just scroll down to number one ;) 50 fearless predictions for the 2023 AFL season: 10-1 - AFL News - Zero Hanger

I'm driving 80 minutes to be there 😊