Stu

I’m arriving in Brisbane on Sunday for a holiday at Noosa… you’re making the wait seem even longer now 😂

Great question, and one I'm unqualified to answer adequately, but for what it's worth: I think our scoring shots from centre clearances over the past four weeks would have to be the best or near to the best in the league. Without knowing exactly, I expect the inside 50 efficiency from centre clearances is much higher than those from standard clearances. They're figurative gold for AFL sides because of the 6-6-6 rule. This year has shown that teams have adapted to our strengths, beginning with a strategy to combat our clearance domination, and then a pivot to working around or nullifying our defensive structures. That is why our form and fortunes have been a bit harder to gauge compared to last year because teams have been throwing the proverbial sink at us trying to beat us and different teams have employed different tactics. I believe our form on scores from clearances this year is in a better position than at the same time last year. I think this is a good indicator for the finals series, where there is often very little room and opposition players are rarely left free. When things get tight, muscle memory and consistency is important - our consistent gameday strategies, strength at the contest, and enviable ability to score from centre clearances will make us a daunting challenge for any team. Just one final comment on our form - the Bulldogs (60%) and Collingwood (65%) had scoring accuracy far in excess of the season average (49%). It's even significant when compared to the most consistently accurate team over the last seven years (the Eagles at 52%). If things had gone our way just a little more in those games, our form since the bye would read 7W-1L or 6W-2L if you think Carlton were more deserved winners on Saturday night. We'd also be on a 3 game winning streak and all of us would be talking about the similarities to last years form.

Yep! I distinctly remember the discussion on Fox during the finals was how we were a team that scored from turnovers and how it suddenly changed to stoppage goals in the finals. So the analysis he offered is actually pretty useless.

It’s important to note that King compared our last 7 rounds this year to our last 7 games (including finals) last year, which is skewed because we all know how bonkers our clearance work was during the finals. I think the comparison between the same periods in both years is actually much closer. King just using selective statistics to back up his opinion.

Looking ahead to Friday’s game: If we get up by 4 goals mid way through the last quarter, does Goody keep up the intensity to take 2nd spot or do we revert to the norm and shut up shop happy with securing the top 4 spot?

For all the negative Dee's supports here, take a moment and ponder this question... take all of your negative feelings about our game plan, our weaknesses, our team selection, and analyse it through the lens of our ladder position. If, and I mean IF, everything you feel is true and we're still second despite all that, what does that mean for what we can accomplish if we address all that concerns you?

Honestly, it seems like Freo, Sydney, Bulldogs, Pies all played the games of their seasons against us... a nice easy one against Carlton would seem fair and reasonable.

Don't you mean "The Package"?

Yeah, no easy ones out the back that he seems to love.

Does anyone else want Cam Rayner to get flattened next week?

All the best for tonight boys. If I were in your shoes I don’t think I could show up for it, such is my disappointment from the game. A simple question… If we played that same game 10 times, how many times do you think we win? I feel it’s 8 or even 9. I know they played very well in the second half, but it feels like at least 30-40 events throughout the game went their way. So fortunate we’re they that if only a few of those events go our way instead, that we win.

I have been super jittery all day today. Can't wait for the game tonight. I want this win so badly! Dees 92 - Pies 54

It reflects what the punters think our chances are. The betting companies continually modify the odds to balance their books. Professional punters have clearly felt Melbourne offered great value earlier this week and put big money down. If the betting companies did nothing and Melbourne win, they will have lost a lot of money. So they are trying to lure punters to bet on Collingwood by pushing the Pies odds out to make them better value.

Just to add to the point about small margins at the elite level, consider Carlin Isles. He left sprinting because he knew he couldn’t make the olympics and joined a sport that might get him there: “Before taking up rugby in 2012, Isles ranked as the 36th fastest sprinter in the United States with a 100 metres outdoor personal best of 10.13 seconds” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlin_Isles

You’ll notice that the non ex-football commentators aren’t quite as rigid in their opinions, whereas the ex-players are. I think some part of it is their ego. They think that they swung the result of games with sheer desire and force of will, rather than training, natural ability, and emotional health in their outside life. No one is saying that it’s the only reason a team will lose but that it’s a key factor in performance (NOT result). But they see things more rigidly and think that the few % points lost in performance from loading won’t make a difference and to admit that it does dismisses how awesome the players are. But at the elite level (in any sport) it is only a few % points in performance between winning and losing.

Looking forward to another great show tonight gents! It was so enjoyable to watch how well we covered the switch, time after time! Freo are one of the best teams at making the ground wide, so to see us prevent it as often as we did was remarkable. We managed to intercept or slow up a number of their attempts to go quick through the corridor. In fact, a lot of their scores from rebound were from good fortune where we managed to partially intercept the rebound, but due to a bad bounce or a fumble they got lucky. Do you think that contributed to Freo playing more conservatively as the game wore on? Looking ahead to this week against Collingwood: Do you think the Pies will similarly revert into their shells under that level of pressure? Or will they be stronger in their resolve to be attacking? The fact that Collingwood couldn't close out the game against Port seemed to indicate their players are fatigued. Given they've had to run till the final whistle in pretty much most games in their 10 game streak, do you agree that they may be starting to fade? I can see there is a lot of questions and comments, so no pressure to include mine if time is short :-)

@binman

@binman I watched the segment you referenced and I had a obnoxious grin on my face while watching it, such was my confidence. All the talk of teams switching it so much against us just made me think of a rat in a maze. I don’t think Freo will know what hit them when they try to switch it against us tonight! I didn’t mention it because King contradicts himself day to day, so any take on it would be outdated pretty quickly 😂

I have to say that this line here really got me 😂 Who could turn down such an offer?

Dees 80 - Freo 38 ✊

What sort of draft picks would we need to give Fox Footy, to get the deal done?

Another thing to consider is how the dynamics of the mental side changes from here on out. Teams have clearly planned for games against us, either to prove their ability (freo, swans, pies) or get redemption (cats), with most of them playing their best game of the season against us. In each of the four upcoming games, our opponents will all have something to lose, such as a top 4 spot or even top 8. That changes how freely teams will play against us. Coaches can’t just take huge risks because the consequences may undo all their effort to this point in the season. It’s easy to throw caution to the wind in round 11 or 12 or even 17 because there’s time to undo a bad game, but not so much at this stage. Even the cats are coming up against the dogs and saints in what they will see as do or die games for their seasons. There will be a lot of surprises in the next four rounds. I’m sticking to my earlier prediction of 17-5. I believe the FD strategy and season planning has been building to these last 8 weeks. I anticipate a repeat of the intensity from our game against the Lions on Friday night. 💪

I think it balances out, plus the pre finals bye means there is less concern about player management given the two week recovery period available.

Couldn't agree more Von. Well said. It's the long term strategy "system" coaches vs the "tactical" coaches who like to move the magnets around and even try to rev up the players with us vs them pep talks.