RyanD

This game is brutal. I have spent so much of my life invested in this and I wouldn't have it any other way. But I just want to see my team win finals at the MCG. 2018 is my only memory of this. I fly from interstate and clear everything else to attend this game, as I do every year (and during the season). I then sit there and watch a complete shambles for 3 full quarters, its emotionally taxing. I can't get my head around how we can have so many stars at the peak of their game and we were barely kick a goal for 3 quarters....someone tell me how that even happens? in the biggest game of the year with 90k watching and we dont get any momentum going until the last Q. Thanks for vent!

I agree with some of that. But the ball was skidding still in the last Q, the ground was definitely wet. I just think we are atrociously skilled AT TIMES and the wet makes it worse.

That is exactly my point. Teams like Collingwood and GWS don't do that and still beat us. 240 minutes of football against GWS and Collingwood in similar conditions and we lose both games. Sure, you might be more vulnerable by playing a different way, but you are likely to also be more effective going forward. You are a stats man. Think about the sample size here, 240 minutes of football in the wet. We lose both games with +72 inside 50s. There is something fundamentally wrong there and I have not even included the Essendon game and I think there is another one I am missing.

This!!! Anyone who speaks about the forward line is letting off players like Trac, Oliver, Viney and co. Champion players, they are the reason we dominate contested ball, but they are also the reason we are so poor going inside 50. It's pretty damn simple. Work out who kicks the ball the most going inside 50 and those players are the ones causing the issue.

Wet game and we won the inside 50s by +32, lost. Wet game against GWS and we won the inside 50s by 40+, lost. That is a huge sample size and tells me we are playing the wrong way in the wet. How on earth do we not have an understanding of why we are so poor in these games? You can't play the same game plan and let teams 'counter attack' with all that open space off the half back line. We didn't learn a thing. Can someone please put together our record in the wet with out total inside 50's for and against.

Without being brutal, it's totally heart breaking to watch your side not fire a shot AT ALL for 3 quarters in another qualifying final loss. That last Q was more about Collingwood having a lead than Melbourne doing anything special. If anything, the pressure came off and Collingwood were in game saver mode. When the pressure is on at the start of games against good team we have been smashed: Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Carlton and now Collingwood x 2, all smashed in the first Q. The only game was against Brisbane 5 weeks ago, then they went on to kick the next 9 goals.

The other question I have is will it mostly be Melbourne members in section N14 GSS?

Why is everyone forgetting Smith? We now have McDonald as a genuine tall. If we are looking short down back, they will flip Smith back. What fantastic flexibility we have with Smith.

Now that is interesting Re the news on McAdams. There must be a specific reason for that trade and I am assuming it is something to do with the functioning of the forward line. Melbourne must have offered some certainties around his position as he has knocked back a 2 year deal from an up and coming team in Adelaide.

NNE winds, should be ok haha.

Anyone know if N14, Row C is undercover?

Similar, N14 (lvl 2), basically the same spot but a level down from my Trident seats.

Narrow win to North? Do you mean GC?

That was sarcasm, apologies.

$30 GF guarantee haha, what have I been paying for all these years? 😂

I would be interested to see how supporters would rate the prospects without a draft guide as to where they will go. The draft guess work for supporters is confirmation bias 101. You know they are a high-draft pick when you watch these videos, so it always stands out more. If you just had footage and no guide for the top 30 players, 95% of supporters wouldn't get close to picking the top 10.

Sometimes I need to remind myself to enjoy the moment we are in as a football club. What an amazing point in time where we can go about our Saturday knowing we are one of the premiership favourites going into a blockbuster on Saturday night. During those endless dark years, these are the times I use to dream about. We are going to look back in years to come and be in awe at some of the talent we have. Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Pickett, May, Lever, Brayshaw and co. Don't think too far ahead, enjoy the day, enjoy the night and sit back and watch our players give it all. No matter the result, we are going into finals with a double chance. Go Dees!

And Port Adelaide are not paying 100% of their cap anyway, so basically it doesn't impact them at all.

Just in regards to Clayton's injury, Jack Mclean (Melbourne's strength and conditioning coach) does a podcast/Vodcast called 'Prepare like a pro'. He released his latest episode literally 7 hours ago where he interviewed Ryan Timmins, who has done a bunch of great research into hamstring injuries. They spoke about how the frequency of hamstring injuries in the AFL has decreased, but the severity (length of time out injured) has increased. One suggestion is that athletes these days are getting too strong too quick. In other words, the amount of force the hamstring produces will outweigh the ability for the tendon to transfer load to the bone. As we know, this is exactly where Claytons injury is, at the musculotendinous junction. There is no research into this yet, but the idea has some merit. The point here is that that our very own strength and conditioning coach is having conversations with a well-know hamstring researcher about why some athletes are injured for longer. The answer is we don't know yet and there isn't any research to help guide us. To me, this explains why the club has been a little vague with their information. These football clubs are often right at the edge of research and are constantly having to alter and adjust how they do things. Then you add in the complexity of each individual and how their own body reacts. Again, these are just my own thoughts and I have no context for Claytons individual case. I just found the podcast super interesting and from what I have seen of Jack, we really have some of the best high performance staff in the competition. From what Ryan Timmins was saying, some clubs are deficient in their hamstring prevention strategies, so we are in good hands.

I find the 'player comparison' embarrassingly cringy. Half of them are based on their looks, nothing to do with how they play. E.g. if Jake Rogers were white, you can bet your life they wouldn't compare him to Touk Miller.

Don't take offence, but it's not even worth posting this. In what world would WC take that? Or another team not beat that. WC will be expecting 4 + 6 minimum.

The last time Melbourne conceded two matches in a row of 95+ points against was in 2019 round 2 & 3. That is 102 games ago. Should we be concerned or is this the price you pay in order to score? Edited, 102**

Once again, quality post and thanks for putting in the time. Love seeing some objective data. Just throwing it out there, but would love to see some stats that 'stick out' when teams score above 70 points against us (regardless of result). Brisbane x 2, Essendon, Port, GC & Freo. The one that seems super obvious to me but isn't talked about as much is mark differential. In those games where we give up a decent score against, teams have a significant mark differential against us. The games we dominate, we seems to equal or beat the other team in marks. We could run a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA test) for the stats that stick out, to see if they are actually statistically significant. Often statistics that seem like they stick out, may just be to chance. Again, we would need to see what stats keep showing up in loses, then we can run the test. But I think the mark differential is one I have noticed. P.s. please confirm if it's an ANOVA, I made the assumption because we would be testing 3 or more groups (matches), but it's been a while since I did stats.

Insert Fritch where they put Petty's name, foot 3-5 weeks. I think that is the only mistake.

He is indigenous. Therefore, I think there are a few loopholes the AFL will seek to use in order to avoid the NGA rules that apply to non-indigenous players. You will find the AFL will allow this to go through, rather than a priority pick. It essentially gives them pick 3 or 4. Our pick will slide.