titan_uranus

Agreed. That's 18 out of 20 games this year in which we've had more than enough of the general play to be able to kick a winning score but in six of those games (one-third), we've failed to capitalise and/or simultaneously conceded too easily. Largely, yes. But the problem is also kicking winning scores against good sides. Yesterday we held Sydney to their season average score. We generated far more inside 50s and scoring shots but failed to turn those two statistics into a winning score. Compare that with the St Kilda game, for example, when St Kilda well exceeded their season average score whilst we scored 100+, which is our average.

His movement has looked off for weeks. You, and others, are letting your pre-conceived bias against him make the news about his potential injury a conspiracy.

I know you think Jones was poor, and he was, but we are not dropping our captain in Round 22 when we are trying to win a game to make finals. It's not happening. Not for PR reasons, not for team spirit/morale reasons, not for unwanted distraction reasons. If that troubles you, then the solution is that Jones shouldn't be captain in 2019, so that we don't have this issue next year.

This is the fourth close loss to a finals contender, and each time I sit back and say "gee we were terrible in parts but we only lost by [insert sub-10 point margin]". Problem is we don't ever seem to fix those bad bits and so the next time we get a crack, we get the exact same result. Surely, at some point, something's going to give and we're going to get it right and win one of these games. Surely?

Some of the umpiring was atrocious today, which is becoming a running theme in 2018 (but hey, let's double the size of the goalsquare because that's what fans want!). Had no impact on the game's result, but frustrates me. A Sydney player handballed it out of a tackle directly over the line but wasn't paid deliberate. A Sydney player takes on two Melbourne players, tackled, drops the ball, but no holding the ball call. Brayshaw's head is nearly taken off but no free. I'm sure there were some bad decisions the other way, too - I only remember the ones against us. It's just frustrating to see so many poor decisions on a near-weekly basis.

Complete and utter rubbish. The star forwards of the game have a reliable set-shot routine that they can bank on and they don't need to second guess. Brown, Kennedy, Riewoldt, Hawkins, Franklin - none of them have a lack of faith in their own routine. Sure, they miss some under pressure, almost any player does, and the pressure of a close game or a strong opponent will do that. But Jesse is mucking around with his technique and has been for weeks, whether it's snapping from 20m out or bending out and trying to hook it back. The mental side is important too, but with Hogan he needs to practice his routine to get that part of the problem under control.

Horrendous game today. In our 8 losses he's only had 20 possessions once (22 against Hawthorn). To me, it feels like he struggles massively against the better sides. The running is important but my concern has been, and remains, that his skills aren't good enough when under pressure and just being able to run isn't enough (Bugg is another example of this). Will, and should, get another game next week as there are others to drop who aren't as important to the side, but if we're going to praise the good bits, we have to be critical of the bad bits with ANB.

If he's not fit enough, we won't play him, don't disagree with you there. Initially I thought you were advocating for resting him to "save" him for finals if we make it, which I did not agree with. Ultimately if he and Melksham are fit enough to play, they come straight back. If they're not, then we don't play them. But we don't hold either of them back in an effort to maximise our chance of winning a final.

It will help. One of Hogan's misses, he ran deliberately out to the right and hooked it left. That's not pressure (like maybe McDonald's misses were). That's a player losing faith in his own kicking routine.

I'm prepared to roll the dice on A-grade talent to try to make the finals than save the A-grade talent and risk missing the finals altogether so that we can keep playing VFL-level players in their place.

We do this plenty. We usually kick it up and under, though, which isn't smart.

Sydney scored 13.9.87. Their season average is 12.9. So they were right around their average, both as to number of scoring shots and total score. We scored 10.18.78. Our season average is 15.13. So we were right around our average scoring shots, but nowhere near our average score. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that this inaccuracy is, largely, where the game was lost.

Right now, as a strategic decision but also a business one, we need to prioritise making the finals over winning a final. We need the monkey off the back. Missing the finals this year does not help us one bit for 2019, but making them and realising we're capable of doing it does. So, if Hibberd is borderline fit, we roll the dice and play him. It was a risk. It clearly didn't pay off. Unfortunately we've taken a lot of selection risks this year which have flopped. This is largely due to injuries testing what is quite poor depth (e.g. we played Maynard in Round 1 but wouldn't have needed to if Viney was fit, again today we played Hunt but wouldn't have needed to if Hibberd was fit). At least we took a risk in favour of a player who can change a game if it works (e.g. Hunt) rather than a player who can't help us even at his best (e.g. Maynard in Round 1).

That's not possible. None of the 11-win teams have a better percentage than us and won't haul it down in just one game. So even if we lose next week we will go into Round 23 in the 8, just like last year, in the knowledge that a win against GWS will secure our finals spot.

If the following four things happen, then even if we lose both games we can make it: North lose to Adelaide Port lose to Collingwood Essendon lose to Richmond Port lose to Essendon If those happen, then when we get to our game vs GWS, both Port and Essendon will both have 12 wins (and North beating St Kilda puts them on 12 as well). Barring two blowout losses to WC and GWS, our percentage will keep us in the 8 above Port, Essendon and North and we won't even need to beat GWS. The four results above are not completely out of the question - I don't see Port beating Collingwood or Essendon beating Richmond, for example. I'm not so confident on North losing to Adelaide but it's entirely possible. But tbh I really don't see Port losing at home to Essendon in the final round, with finals to play for. Stranger things have happened, but I don't see it In order to miss with a 13th win: one of Geelong, North and Essendon (the 11-win teams) has to catch us on percentage (only Geelong can realistically do this); and Port has to win both games I don't see both of those happening - I just don't see Port winning both, us winning one and still Geelong catching us on percentage. tl;dr - we just need to win a game.

6 - Harmes 5 - Salem 4 - Brayshaw 3 - Oliver 2 - Frost (I thought he did really well tbh, at no stage did I think Franklin was beating him. When Franklin got on top it was through their slick ball movement and our inability to cut his leads off) 1 - Tyson I've got no idea how you could draw this conclusion from today. I thought he was outstanding and one of the few who stood up at all critical moments. No way. Yes, he kicked three goals. But his inability to compete with Aliir was a huge reason why they got on top. He couldn't beat him one-on-one, he couldn't block or body him, he couldn't get to the contests and he couldn't stop the rebound. I thought he was really, really poor (but yes, the three goals were important).

Out: Hunt (drop even if injured), Pedersen, Spargo/Garlett In: Hibberd, Melksham, Hannan/Kent Assuming Hibberd and Melksham are both fit, the first two changes seem obvious to me. We need to drop one of Spargo/Garlett (leaning towards Spargo at the moment, not because Garlett was any better but because Garlett's upside exceeds Spargo's at this point) and I'd try whichever of Kent/Hannan the FD thinks is best-placed to make an impact. If we want to drop a fourth I'd drop JKH, who's reached his AFL ceiling and it just isn't good enough. Bring in both Hannan and Kent. Leave the other of Spargo/Garlett in as we need a crumbing forward. ANB was useless but we have to back in our core players, of which he is one, and put the onus on them to improve.

Infuriating. Not just because of what is on the line for us in terms of finals. But because we lost the same way we always do. +17 inside 50s and +6 scoring shots should be a 20+ point win. Being up two men on the bench for 2.5 quarters (Hunt sat out most of the last quarter with a rolled ankle) should make that 30+ points. Inexcusable number of passengers: Pedersen, Spargo, Garlett, Hunt, ANB and JKH all had little to no impact on the game. VDB kicked three goals but for 90% of the game was not just poor, but was a main reason for our struggles through his complete inability to compete with Aliir. Hogan and TMac missed critical shots at critical times. Jones was inept (though credit to him for his fourth quarter workrate). We continued to kick the ball to poor places. We continued to play one off the back of the square which only resulted in them mopping up inside 50 after inside 50. And we killed our own momentum by missing easy set shots. When Gawn doesn't dominate in the middle, we don't get anything from the one off the back of the square. We stopped doing it in the fourth and looked a little better with our ball movement. ANB is a real problem. Too often goes to water when the pressure goes up but our game requires his input. We're clearly struggling to cover Viney, Lever, Melksham and Hibberd. Fingers crossed the latter two come back next week. The door is still open for us given North and Port's losses. We will finish next week in the 8 unless we lose by 100 and Geelong wins by 100. But if we lose and then need to beat GWS in the last game to make the finals, I do not like our chances at all.

I don't think there's anyone who isn't in the same camp as you. The difference is that some are interested in what happens in the event we don't win all three, and how that (and other results) impacts on our finish.

Are you really that surprised that after 12 years of not playing finals at all, some of us can't help but focus on actually making the top 8 this year?

If we win three, then we finish third (second if Brisbane upsets West Coast in the final round). If we win two, it looks like we'll finish somewhere in the 4-6 region, I think. If we win one, it's probably something like 6-9, depending on other results. If we don't win another game, we'll finish 9-11.

This just sucks in every way.

They had 0 on the bench by the end of last week, and they're down to 1 right now. Kelly's was a concussion in a tackle, Shaw's a collision knee injury. Can't do much about those from a fitness/conditioning perspective. It's just such bad luck to keep getting them all in the same year.

I'm of the view that the insurance we get from the Port loss is more valuable than the prospect of finishing 2nd. I believe we can win all three but I don't think that's likely. So I'm more than happy to have Port lose - as has been said, if we beat Sydney tomorrow and Collingwood beats Port next week, then we should (barring BBP's nightmares coming true) have both Geelong and Port covered with our percentage, and that means we play finals (even if North wins out). Meanwhile tonight's games were exciting 20 minutes ago when Brisbane and Adelaide were both leading. Now Adelaide's down by 18 and Brisbane's down by 21.

Seems to me like Smith/Vince get replaced with Pedersen/Hunt, in a like-for-like swap. I'm not sold on Pedersen but I wasn't sold on Smith either so I feel like we're not going backwards in that area, if anything we're just not going forwards. Hunt at his best is a major improvement on Vince, the query is whether we see Hunt's best or we see the Hunt we got earlier this year who wasn't playing near AFL level. Not really. Rohan's been rubbish all year.