titan_uranus

He's certainly talented and capable of tearing us apart, but consistency is not his thing. He's kicked 22 goals but 9 of those have been in two games (5 when he ripped Richmond to shreds, 4 last week vs Geelong) meaning 13 in the other 12 games. He'd only kicked 4 goals in the previous 6 games before last week. We have to back May in to be able to stop him.

Enjoying the debate in here about the issues between our mids and forwards. IMO it's a combination of weaknesses in both areas. I think our mids are doing a lot right, and certainly a lot right in terms of the way Goodwin has trained us to play, but we still have a number of mids who make bad mistakes by foot when trying to kick inside 50 - Viney is too up-and-under with his kicks, under pressure Oliver goes for distance, Brayshaw is unreliable (but to be commended for at least going onto his non-preferred). Early-season we had a team-wide problem of failing to lower our eyes as well, just sending it as deep as possible. However, I think some (but not all) of these issues are caused or exacerbated by the forwards all being down on 2018 levels of output. There's less confidence, less leading up at the ball carrier, too many leads to the pockets, and a lack of marking form (TMac, Weideman and Hannan all worse than last year and obviously no Hogan). And then, possibly the biggest problem, is the lack of pressure when it hits the ground. All year it's been too easy for our opponents to rebound out of our forward 50 - Spargo and ANB nowhere near where they were last year, Garlett not consistently defending when he was in the side, the talls who have been down there (TMac, Weid, Preuss, T Smith, Keilty) all struggling with their defensive pressure in various ways. My view is that some incremental improvements in these areas can lead to drastic improvements in our form - even like 25% more defensive pressure is going to prevent a number of the rebounds out of our forward 50, we'll generate more scores when we go inside, the game will be played more in our forward half, all of that will lead to confidence building from our mids and forwards and it spirals from there (just as it has spiralled the other way this year). But that 25% improvement won't come without hard work, better coaching and targeted list improvements over the off-season.

Petty if we have to. We need to be getting games into May, Frost and Lever (along with Hibberd, Jetta and Salem, and Hore if/when we can) as a defensive unit.

Hoping to see Petracca, ANB, Dunkkley and Lockhart on the bench (with Petty making way and joining OMac and the Wagners as emergencies). Just not sure we need May, Frost, Lever and Petty in the side, let alone against the Dogs (and certainly not OMac on top of that).

Agree with the OP. We haven't had too many players who have improved on last year but I think Petracca is one. For someone who is such a confidence player, I would love to see him fix up his goal kicking technique. The effect of nailing easy shots (or more importantly not having the deflation of missing easy shots) could be quite significant for him.

Ah, that is indeed correct. Point still stands, just minus the Judd-robot thing.

Also, on the topic of over-celebrating, just have a think about how the players would have felt in that moment when the siren went. They were spent. They had been working as hard as they could, with almost no rest, to try to hold on and prevent a loss which would have opened up so much criticism (given how much they're copping despite winning, imagine what they would have been thinking about the ramifications of a loss). So the siren goes and their natural reaction is to be happy. FFS. In the heat of the moment, sometimes humans exhibit emotions. In this instance it was 100% justifiable.

You're making my point, Jaded. It's not criticism of our 2019 season that I'm finding it difficult to read - the season has been disastrous and we have a number of lessons to learn, and beating Carlton doesn't necessarily mean we've learnt them. What I'm finding increasingly frustrating on Demonland is the unnecessary pessimism and the inability to enjoy positive moments when they arise, even where in context they do not change the season. So saying I am on a "high horse" because I "can't handle anyone mentioning negatives" is both inaccurate and OTT. Saying things like we wouldn't have been 6 goals up against Collingwood or Richmond is irrelevant - we didn't play Collingwood or Richmond, we played Carlton. Dismissing the rotations issue (which is what you've been doing) ignores the reality of it. In the first half we had 42 rotations and Carlton 44. In the second half we had 25 rotations and Carlton had 44. In the fourth quarter it was 6 to 18. We should have been 10 goals up in the third quarter and the fact we weren't was indicative of the ongoing problems we have had all year, and last year. But holding on against a fast-finishing side when we're out on our feet is something to be happy with regardless. The frustration arises when posters either can't, or don't want to, see the positives and just want to talk about the failures. I haven't seen the full game so I can't be sure, but based on what I've seen/read and the stats, is this completely true though? Or: I had been leaning towards this, based on what I've seen/read so far. Our kick-handball ratio was 221-151, or 1.46. Against Brisbane it was 217-186, or 1.16. Fremantle was 237-150, or 1.58. I wonder whether post-bye we have tried to kick-mark more than pre-bye, and when it has worked (Fremantle and Carlton) we have played more controlled football and performed better as a result, but against Brisbane we went away from that and struggled as a result. This is obviously too simplistic an analysis, but I'm not sure @stevethemanjordan is 100% on the money about how we played vs Carlton (although there remain problems with our entries and our forward line in general).

This is the sort of OTT pessimistic stuff that infects this site. You've just chucked the "with limited rotations" bit in there without thinking about what it means. For the first three quarters we built a 6 goal lead. Then the bloke who had kicked 6 goals in three quarters went off, we had one rotation for a quarter, and you're upset that our lead got eroded? We'll never know what would have happened without the injuries but when the numbers were even we were 6 goals better. As to their "top 3 players", they won interstate last week with the same players missing so it's not like they've fallen apart without Cripps. Curnow and Mackay have each played maybe 3-4 good games this year. And it's not like we were at full strength. But it's the sarcastic comment about being thrilled to be 16th that gets me most. If you want to be gloomy, fine. But the fact that some people have enjoyed today's win in the context of the season doesn't mean we're happy that in 2019, after the progress of 2014-2018, we're happy to be third bottom.

Gawn to replace TMac is probably fine, although we don't want to be too tall at Marvel against the Dogs. I can't see a good argument for OMac getting Petty's spot, the more so if Lever comes in for Hore. I'd like more run, whether that's JKH or J Wagner.

I haven't seen the game, but I don't need to have seen it to have known this would be how this thread would go. This was a lose-lose game for us. A thrashing would have resulted in "where has that been all year" and/or "it was only Carlton less Cripps/Curnow/Mackay/Docherty". A comeback would have been "we were lucky" or "they stopped" or "it was only Carlton less Cripps/Curnow/Mackay/Docherty". A loss would have been, well, obvious. Reality is we were a side without Gawn, Lever, Melksham, Jetta, down to one player on the bench (including Fritsch who was dominating until injured, and TMac, also dominating until injured) up against a side in their season-best form, coming off a win in Perth without any of the aforementioned missing players, having three times this year taken the lead after being 6 goals down. I'm certain we made horrendous mistakes like we've been seeing all year, and I'm confident based on the statistical dominance and how 2019 has gone so far that we should have been far more than 30 points up at three quarter time, but is it really any surprise that they fought back in the last given the above? I'm far more interested in seeing TMac come back to form (the injury is just awful news), our midfield stand up despite no Gawn, Preuss do his role well, and the defence settle despite losing Hore early. I'm looking forward to watching the replay, errors and all, because FFS we've only won 5 games this year so at least enjoy the ones we get when we get them.

You spent all of 2017, and probably more, talking about "turning a corner". If we had made finals for three years but failed to win one, you'd have gone on and on about how we'd "failed to turn a corner". But when another club does it, it's a significant achievement. They traded out one player of note (Deledio) and brought in three key players from other clubs (Caddy, Prestia, Nankervis). Then they went to the draft. That is not a rebuild. That is making strategic changes to improve a list. Saying "they completely changed their approach to their list" is ridiculous. They did what any club which had made finals for three years but then flopped for one year would do. They made strategic changes to their list, designed to improve them in the areas that 2016 had exposed as weaknesses. That is (amongst other things) exactly what we need to do, but it is not a rebuild.

I accept that. If we had had a perfect pre-season, we'd be doing far better than we are right now, but we'd still have problems. And I want the club to look at more than just having a better 2019/20 pre-season.

If you mean delisting/trading 10-12 current players, no I don't agree. I think we can improve the team for 2020 by delisting/trading half that (e.g. Maynard, Stretch, J Wagner, Lewis, JKH). Maybe part of this is down to the semantics over the meaning of the word "rebuild". IMO there is no such thing as a "total rebuild" or a "partial rebuild". We're either starting again (which is a rebuild) or we're making changes to a list (which is what Richmond did in 2016, also what Geelong did last year, and what most sides who are thereabouts but not in premiership contention do). But maybe that's just me and for others the word "rebuild" has different meaning(s).

Yes, I poorly worded that part of my post. What I care about most of all is seeing us continue to implement the tweaks to our game plan and structure that we saw vs Fremantle but notably didn't see vs Brisbane. What I saw vs Fremantle was the sort of football that is going to make us a better side in 2020.

"Wins are irrelevant. They played in finals". What does that even mean? You argued that we need to rebuild because we're six years into the current rebuild and three years into Goodwin's tenure. I countered by noting that Richmond finished bottom 6 with an 8-14 record seven years into Hardwick's tenure. Richmond had qualified for three finals series but failed to win any. They had achieved no more than we did in winning two finals last year. As to their list turnover, they traded out Deledio and moved on a bunch of NQRs. They then brought in Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy, then went to the draft (but took no first round pick). I wouldn't call that a major list rebuild. But there should be a lesson there for us. Target the right players who either want out (Prestia), don't fit (Caddy) or can't get a game (Nankervis) at their club and can fill a void at our club (e.g. for us, find some outside run, and a small forward). So no, I don't agree a rebuild is necessary.

The OP is neither right nor wrong. Our pre-season was awful and it has had an immensely negative impact on our season. But it is not the sole reason we've had a disastrous year. It can certainly be argued that it is the dominant reason for our bad year. The OP and others have made some good arguments to that effect. But there are other issues that have manifested this year that are separate. IMO at the top of the list is the game plan - too aggressive of a forward press, not enough outside run, too much reliance on winning CPs and clearances, playing on from marks too much, no structure for kick outs from defence. I have seen tweaks to the game plan as the season has gone on which give me confidence that the coaches have seen the issues and have started trying to fix them. I've seen our last defender hold back far deeper in defence than previously. I've seen us keep key forwards deeper towards goal, rather than having everyone sucked up onto the wing. Against Fremantle we saw more kicking/marking and switching. I think there are some other issues at play too - there's something of an attitude problem amongst some of our key mids. There seems to be a growing belief that Oliver, Harmes and Brayshaw struggle to commit to two-way running (particularly, and it disappoints me to say it, Oliver). Our horrendous leadership is another problem that won't go away. I'm with @stevethemanjordan in that I don't like saying this is the year we had to have, but it may well be the case. If 2020 and beyond are going to be successful, then the club has to learn from the mistakes of the 18/19 pre-season and the 2019 season.

Melksham is sorely missed at the moment, but last year we had Spargo, ANB and Hannan all playing better football than they have this year (along with TMac of course). The combined loss of form of TMac, Spargo and ANB, plus Hannan's injuries/form struggles, plus Melksham's injuries, and even the loss of vandenBerg, have turned our forward line into a mess. But I don't think we're as far off as others might.

This is what I mean. A win adds nothing to our season so why do people care so much if we lose? So on the one hand, you won' be concerned if we lose to Carlton because their record is around ours. On the other hand, we should have "taken action" after losing to St Kilda, who have double the wins of Carlton this year. Do you mean we should have sacked Goodwin after the St Kilda game?

You bring this out frequently, Macca. Just because you hold a minority view does not mean the majority view is "group think", nor that you are right. Just on the topic of Frost being a whipping boy, whilst traditionally that has been the case on Demonland I reckon the past few months have seen the most positive commentary on here around Frost I've ever seen. And I think that's deserved, as I think this year has been his best for us and he has improved his game in a few key ways.

Agreed. I'm certainly not advocating for tanking and want us to win every game from here if we can. But hyperbolic posting about how the club is going to fall apart if we lose to Carlton is just that, hyperbole.

Does it really matter that much? It's not like a win is going to change people's thoughts about us. The people who think we need to rebuild aren't going to stop calling for a rebuild. Let's focus on playing a more sustainable brand of football.

If Gawn is anything less than 100% he should be rested for Preuss. If Gawn is 100% then Preuss can be considered as a replacement for one of TMac, T Smith and Weideman. One game of 3.3 from T Smith is not enough for a very limited 28-year old player. Lever for Petty is an improvement. Replacing ANB and Hannan is a possibility too; personally I'd only do one, particularly if we're already bringing in Preuss and Lever.

It's par for the course on Demonland, and particularly for people like olisik, who have very little positive to say but a tonne of negativity. Draft pick hindsight analysis is wonderful but even if we did completely stuff the Sparrow pick up that's about 50th on the list of things that have gone wrong this year. Richmond 2016 anyone? That was Hardwick's 7th season as coach. Three straight finals appearances without a win, then a bottom 6 finish with an 8-14 record. Your final sentence is a classic Demonland analysis - it's not just one thing. It's both of the two you mentioned, and more.

We fixed this last week vs Fremantle and it looked good. Was it the players failing to implement those changes this week? Was it the way Brisbane played which encouraged us to play fast and aggressive? Or was it coaching? I suspect it was the players failing to suppress the instinct we've drilled into them over the last 18 months to play on repeatedly.