titan_uranus

We're on 13 games played with three to come, so we'll end up on 16 games against this group of 12 (GC is excluded from the group). Collingwood will end up with 17, whilst GWS, Sydney and the Dogs will join us on 16. Meanwhile Essendon only get to 13 whilst Hawthorn, Brisbane, Geelong and Port only get to 14. Those variations in the fixture make a difference - Essendon are where they are because they've had more games against the bottom 6 than the rest of the contenders. Reality is of course that most of the season's true contenders (Sydney, Fremantle, Brisbane, the Dogs) have either positive W-L in this group or positive percentage. We are neither of those, when I expect we would have been in both in 2021-23.

Not necessarily. The article provides our average age across the entire season. It says our average has been 25.9. On the weekend we were 25y10m (maths equivalent to 25.8). Against Fremantle, 25.67. Against Essendon, 25.33. Against Brisbane, 25.25. Meanwhile we were 26 or over in Rounds 1-4, hitting 26.4 against Hawthorn in Round 2. So the average spits out in the middle, but post-bye we have been fielding a much younger side than we were fielding at the start of the season. We've had the younger 23 in four of six games post-bye (the only two where we've been older were vs North and GWS).

Logic says we're no chance this week against the Dogs. They're one of a few sides who are, on form and paper, beyond us right now (Fremantle, Brisbane, probably still Sydney too). The small window of opportunity is that they're on a 5-day break, and under Beveridge have had a habit of losing easier games in the final month when top 4 has beckoned. If we do somehow win this week, get some confidence up, who knows what happens against Port, but we've only played one genuinely bad game since the bye (Fremantle) so we're not that far off.

Yes, we have had three close losses, and are 1-3 in games decided by under a goal. We know from the 2022-23 Collingwood debate that winning close games is part skill, part luck. Luck has been against us in most of those four close games, but skill has been lacking clearly. And for every close loss where we say "but if we'd just won that game we'd be X on the ladder", every other side has a similar story. The other points are all fair. The hope for 2025 is that we don't miss Trac for half a year or Melksham for half a year, we get Oliver through a proper pre-season with no hand injury, we don't have a top 10 player suddenly forced to retire a week before the season starts, and we get perhaps a slightly easier draw which doesn't require us to play four of the best 6-8 sides in the competition twice). The issue with fixturing is that it is done based on the previous season. Our double-up games this year included Collingwood and Brisbane, last year's GF teams, and Port, a top 4 but out in straight sets side just like us. So we were given the three best sides other than us from last year's H&A season. But we also got Fremantle and the Dogs, who didn't make finals last year but are now two of the best handful of sides in 2024. Carlton got Richmond, North, Collingwood, Geelong, Port and GWS. They got lucky to avoid Sydney, Brisbane, Fremantle and the Dogs, but to be fair they were given last year's premier, a PF loser, a H&A top 4 side, and Geelong. Richmond are also much worse than they were last year too.

Well, here we are again. I probably don't need to post on this topic after mouthing off in the aftermath of the North game. But I will anyway. Going to games is expensive at the best of times, significantly more so when you have children. There are, unfortunately, too many Melbourne fans (and indeed, fans of all 18 clubs) who simply can't go because they can't afford it. Similarly, there are sadly those of us who can't go due to health reasons. Then there are those who can't go because they live too far away, whether that's in the regions, interstate or overseas. And there are those who can't go due to personal commitments, or because they have kids and night games are near-impossible, or because they have something else on, etc. And it's completely fair to note that with train lines down, the ability for some to get to the game was borderline non-existent. So let's ease off on broad-based "what's your excuse" style posting. And focus instead on the real issue: the disappointingly, and embarrassingly, high proportion of MFC "supporters" who are able to go, but don't, because they want to "send a message" to the club about how we play, or similar. You're killing this club from the inside. If you choose not to go because you don't like how we play, or you're still upset about us being belted in the first quarter of last year's QF, or you don't like Petty playing forward, etc., don't then post on here about how disappointed you are in player effort which appears to wax and wane. If you can't make the effort to go, you don't get to attack the players on effort. (Presumably some will say "well they're paid to perform every week" - if it were that simple, there would be no home ground advantage against travelling clubs, because the vocal home crowd wouldn't impact performance. We know that isn't how it works. Players aren't robots.) And don't complain when our fixture in 2025 is littered with timeslots you don't like, or a lack of prime time games from which we can make money. And then don't complain when Roffey and Pert can't get stellar sponsorship deals. And don't complain about us continuing to sell a game each year to the NT. And don't complain when eventually the AFL starts moving some of our home games to Marvel to allow for Carlton, Essendon and Hawthorn to get more access to the MCG. Our history isn't going to override your lack of current day investment in the club. Whilst this particular game and timeslot was never going to pull a massive crowd (MCG games in winter should be in the day unless they are between Victorian clubs), when we're in finals contention against a fellow finals contender and have 65,000 members, we shouldn't be sub-20,000 to any game. If you can go, but don't, you're not "smart". You're ruining it for the rest of us, and particularly for those of us who can't go.

I agree with points 3 and 4 but not 1 and 2. At no stage did it look like our effort waned (except when Fritsch wouldn’t man up in the last few minutes). This was all on our skill, not our effort. We tried more than hard enough. We just cannot execute the fundamentals for long enough under pressure. I think your comment about Goodwin is probably as far away from the truth as Fritsch was from manning up on someone last night.

I also thought we’d win for similar reasons. They’ve now won 3 straight off the back of playing efficient football. Last night they weren’t flawless (other than the first 5 minutes of the fourth) but they took advantage of any momentum they had and we are adept at squandering momentum we have.

The ANB one in the fourth wasn't as bad as it looked - I don't think he had anyone to kick to in front of him. Also the really slow manning up where they ate a minute off the clock, marked at its peak by Fritsch guarding grass.

TMac kept Hogan to one goal up until there was 1 minute to go in the third quarter. Hogan was on the end of GWS moving the ball at will off the back of clearance dominance. He's also in AA and Coleman-winning form. "No answer for the Giants handball game". What exactly was the answer then? We lost by 2 points to a side many on here said pre-game we wouldn't beat, who played champagne football from clearance for 20 minutes and kicked 5 goals, and who kicked beautifully all night. If anything, it was the coaching that kept us in it. It was our inefficient playing list, unable to capitalise on momentum and unable to execute under pressure, which kept us out of it.

After what was without a doubt his best game for the year? You have NFI.

1-3 now in games decided by under a goal, the sole win being vs North where if the game had gone for a minute longer we probably would have lost. In a season as even as this, just one of those games going our way could be the difference between finals and 12th. GWS are 3-1 by comparison. We are not good at them. For one, the pressure late in these games does not bode well for our low-skilled players. But we also do some dumb things. TMac not taking the obvious switch option, twice. Pickett taking a minute to kick his goal. Rivers doing nothing for 10 seconds then kicking to a nothing spot (after he burned time vs Brisbane, he should have known better).

6 - Oliver 5 - McVee 4 - Chandler 3 - Rivers 2 - Lever 1 - Viney

Bowey and Billings both have to be dropped. Bowey's offering us absolutely nothing good right now. His kicking has gone to water, his decision-making not far behind. Billings just isn't what we need. Sparrow might come straight back - not sure that's right, but I'd probably prefer it to giving Bowey or Billings another game. Worried about Windsor copping an injury in that final tackle of the game. Hope he's alright.

Jeepers there are some hot takes in here. Having a crack at Oliver when he was far and away our best player for the first three quarters and played his best football in months (all year?) is ridiculous - yes, his fourth quarter was no good, but he looked spent after carrying our midfield for the first three quarters. Having a crack at the coaches for having TMac on Hogan is easy but Hogan had kicked 1 goal for 2.5 quarters before getting on the end of their midfield going berserk for 15 minutes. TMac's problems tonight were his own fault, not the coaches. Having a crack at Lever for dropping an intercept mark late is harsh (that he was even able to get his hands to it speaks to his ability) particularly given he had kept us afloat in the middle two quarters. We lost this game due to our usual inability to execute fundamentals under pressure, coupled with carrying a number of unfit and either out of form or not good enough players. Some vital 50/50 umpiring decisions going against us sealed the deal.

Should have been 6 goals up at quarter time. Should never have conceded four goals in 5 minutes to start the last. Billings and Bowey atrocious, Gawn not fit, not sure May’s fit, and TMac had an all time stinker. Some dodgy 50/50 umpiring against us (it was obviously a push to May and Green sucked them in by dropping his knees) but we are far too inefficient and it keeps killing us.

Says more about them than us IMO. GWS at the G is not exactly a match made in heaven. Plus their last two wins have been relatively average performances hidden behind exceptional goalkicking accuracy. Two weeks ago against Richmond at the G they had fewer CPs, clearances, inside 50s (-17!) and scoring shots. Underlying performance was very average against the worst side in the comp.

Think about what he adds to our side. Our best kicks coming out of the back half are Salem (struggling fitness-wise), Bowey (struggling all round) and McVee (most of us want him pushing up the ground a bit more). With Rivers now a mid, Houston helps shore up our back-half kicking, which is hugely important to all sides. Our foot skills are the biggest thing holding us back. He's a genuinely good player. We can't and shouldn't sell the farm for a 28 year old but he'd be a great get for us if we can work it out.

6-day break. They played last Saturday night. I'm with you on 5-day breaks, as above, but there have been worse. You didn't go anywhere, they had to travel here. I wouldn't worry about beating Port in a final if you get them. I'd be more worried about slipping out of the top 4 - if Brisbane, Fremantle and GWS all win, you'll be 5th at the end of this round. You should have had 2nd spot sewn up by now, IMO.

And Acres and Williams (and Silvagni and Docherty too I suppose). Port missing Marshall, SPP, Finlayson and Soldo though, so not completely at full strength either.

Port a 6-day break but point still valid. 5-day breaks should only occur when the opposition is also on a 5-day break. Not that I care about Carlton. As much as it's fun watching Carlton lose, this is not good for us. Although it's funny thinking that after Port fans booed Hinkley off the ground, they'll go 4-1 including wins over the Dogs and Carlton.

You just said in another thread that the only way forward for us is draft picks and kids. So locking away a 19 year old (2 year extension, not 4, btw) who’s had a taste for it and clearly vibes well with the club doesn’t fit that strategy?

Melksham on radio this morning revealed that Gawn has a fitness test today. Also said Sparrow plays a defensive and team role but also needs to play with more freedom without just focusing on his team role, which is why he’s been dropped. Sounds 100% spot on to me.

Source? Sounds like rubbish to me. Since when have we ever picked someone for sentimental reasons?

FWIW, in the same radio segment where he said Houston’s likely to come back to Melbourne, Peter Ryan also said his “intel” is that Clarry’s going nowhere.

This is everything I hate about AFL media. This topic is only relevant, let alone a distraction, because of the media and Cornes himself in particular.