titan_uranus

Not a fair comparison. Last week they were playing against a side who also were playing their first game. Collingwood lost legs, GWS didn’t. That has no bearing at all on this week, where they had the benefit of building match fitness last week and we didn’t. This isn’t a question about fitness overall. This is about them having built match fitness last week, blowing the fitness-related cobwebs out, whilst we didn’t.

Out of interest, what did @DeeSpencer say which you think is so egregious?

Not sure about the dangerous tackles. I thought both times the GWS player had an arm free but maybe not. Assuming no suspensions, Chandler may still be at risk. Howes was poor but who is better without McVee available?

6 - Trac 5 - Gawn 4 - Lindsay 3 - Bowey 2 - Lever 1 - TMac Really interested to see all the Salem votes. I thought his kicking was far too laid back and put us under unnecessary pressure.

Really odd take. They were missing Briggs, Hogan, Stringer and Riccardi and we led most of the day. This wasn’t about personnel.

I’m fairly comfortable saying the biggest difference wasn’t Toby, or accuracy, or our missing players. It was fitness. They ran all four quarters out better than us. I’m sure it was because they played last week. Their last goal occurred mainly because we were gassed (although we shouldn’t have let them through the middle). We did so much right for so long, but just couldn’t close out quarters. Combined with too many turnovers and them finding goals from Greene and Coniglio at exactly the right moments, meant we just couldn’t get a big enough lead to hold them off. We’ve clearly found one in Lindsay. Unbelievable debut. I reckon AJ looks promising, Henderson too, and Jeffo can at least kick straight. Real issues though with our small/mid defenders. Really missed McVee, and whilst Bowey played his best game in years, we felt really vulnerable in that area. Plus we of course also conceded a stack from turnover, but many sides will vs GWS this year. We showed real grit, a clear desire to want to move the ball, and good pressure. Plenty of reason to believe we can contend this year. But in a season where the fight for the top 8 is going to be brutal, we’ve just let 4 points go begging.

I put the last 10 minute fade out down to fitness. We slowed to a walk waiting for Ht and they kept running. Symptom of them playing last week I think. We’re doing a lot right but we will keep making life hard for ourselves if we don’t limit the turnovers and if we keep missing set shots from directly in front.

So the new song we run out to is…On Top by Flume? Not quite Enter the Sandman or Hells Bells

https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/1732890/late-change-may-withdrawn?fbclid=PAZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAaZljoitk2F05ozCRnXbunQkEmvPa1xY11sCOvlYp1lKsyDphE_QDWQzbX4_aem_sLMhIK1Fp_fqL1w0KraCgA “May sustained a knock to the throat during training at Casey Fields on Friday, and scans have since confirmed a fractured larynx. General Manager of AFL Football Performance Alan Richardson said the club would take a cautious approach with May’s recovery. “At this stage, our medical team does not believe the injury is as significant as what Max Gawn sustained earlier in the year,” Richardson said. “We will assess Steven further next week, which will give us a clearer picture of the recovery timeline.”

I’ll be over the moon if we score 90 points today tbh.

TMac’s a perfect replacement but our chances take a hit with May missing. How did he get a fractured larynx? How have we had two of those in 3 months? Edit: club has said it was a knock at training on Friday, but it’s not currently thought to be as bad as Gawn’s.

I'd be far more staggered if they finished top 2. I certainly think they're closer to 9th than 2nd. It's all too common to read too much into Round 1 (even Rounds 2-4). But I'm with @At the break of Gawn in that I think last night was more about Port being awful than Collingwood being amazing.

Can’t wait. Really hope that enough of us are prepared to brave the rain to go today. The weather and the GP are going to severely dent our crowd. Just our luck that in March, when we could have had mild sunny weather, we get this.

Sorry to burst any bubbles but they have to be better than “orright” by now. They’re missing just Wardlaw from their best 23 against a Dogs side missing Bontempelli, Treloar, Weightman, JUH and Jones. They might win from here, but tbh that should be the expectation at this time of their development against this version of the Dogs.

Turner also unavailable this week, so that’s 5 best 23 IMO who were unavailable this week. But as @old55 has already said, TMac, Billings, Laurie and Woewodin are all fit and available and were the players getting these spots last year. Rather than go back to that well, we’re trying new faces. Like most, I like it (although I’m surprised Billings didn’t get picked).

No but his clear mantra, for the 3 years I’ve been listening to him, is that the game has moved away from stoppage and territory dominance. Success now largely comes from being able to score off turnover and defend off your own turnover. We know that in 2022-24 we struggled with the turnover game relative to better sides. The big question for me on Sunday is what we try to do in that area of the game to improve on the last three years.

Final team: Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney at the MCG, 3.20pm AEDT MELBOURNE B: H.Petty 35 S.May 1 C.Salem 3 HB: B.Howes 22 J.Lever 8 J.Bowey 17 C: E.Langdon 15 C.Petracca 5 C.Windsor 6 HF: J.Viney 7 M.Jefferson 21 T.Sparrow 32 F: B.Fritsch 31 J.van Rooyen 2 K.Chandler 37 Foll: M.Gawn - C 11 C.Oliver 13 T.Rivers 24 I/C: H.Langford 19 X.Lindsay 20 H.Sharp 30 A.Johnson 42 J.Henderson 43 Emerg: J.Billings 14 T.McDonald 25 T.Campbell 29

I think we have to assume he dominated that VFL game. It’s still hugely surprising that, even if so, that was enough to displace Disco who struggled but at least at senior level, but I’m certainly all for rewarding form at selection.

Wowee. Not only am I shocked that Jefferson's getting a debut after his pre-season, I'm equally shocked that Billings has missed out despite appearing to be in the A team all pre-season. As @DeeSpencer has reasoned, it looks like AJ's beaten Disco to the second tall forward role, Jefferson and Fritsch are going to be the third tall with Fritsch pushing higher up the ground, and a combination of Sharp, Lindsay and Henderson/Langford are going to have to rotate half-forward and wing. I do quietly like that JVR won't have to ruck, but when the ball hits the deck in a forward line of JVR, AJ, Jefferson and Fritsch, and without Pickett...jeepers...

If he’s talking AFL debuts, then based on the Freo match wouldn’t it be Lindsay, Langford and Adams?

It certainly doesn’t help us attract a crowd. We were already up against the Grand Prix, now with the rain the crowd’s going to be thin, I fear.

Cal Twomey says Culley’s out for 4-6 with bone stress in his foot (can’t embed the Tweet). Is this new or has the club already announced this and I missed it?

Based on how we played in 2022-24, you could write a script on how this game is going to be played. We dominate hit outs, CPs and clearances, resulting in a high number of inside 50s and time spent in our forward half, but with low quality shots on goal leading to an inaccurate score. The Giants often enough will break through our zone with pace and run and generate easier shots on goal. I think the idea of our pre-season has been to work out how to avoid this from happening. This week is probably our first look at seeing what we’ve done to address it.

There’s no doubt that without Pickett we are going to look slow against them. There’s also no doubt they are a talented side in contention this year. But Collingwood yesterday looked just as slow as I expect we will, and played one down on the field when N Daicos slowed to a walk, and yet generated similar scoring shots to 3QT and, on everyone’s favourite stat, the xScore margin at the end of the game was 2 points. Collingwood was also +21 in CPs, +4 in clearances and +1 in inside 50s. Tom Green makes a difference to these stats but they show you where GWS’s problems were. Unlike Collingwood, we should be able to take advantage of them having a weak ruck, plus we play at home not away (and hopefully not in the heat), plus we’re hopefully able to run the game out better than the Pies did, plus we get the benefit of an extra week to plan against what we just saw. So whilst they’re favourites, I can see how we win.

Great stuff, as always. Your site also tells us that in 2024 we scored more than our Expected Score across the season. On its face, this tells us that our inaccuracy last year comes principally from taking low-percentage shots on goal. We take far too many shots from angles (and interestingly, mainly the left hand side). @WheeloRatings Do you have the ability to break down how many games we lost where we ought to have won based on xScore, and vice versa? I'm interested to know whether the xScore across the season is skewed by outliers.