titan_uranus

Cal Twomey says Culley’s out for 4-6 with bone stress in his foot (can’t embed the Tweet). Is this new or has the club already announced this and I missed it?

Based on how we played in 2022-24, you could write a script on how this game is going to be played. We dominate hit outs, CPs and clearances, resulting in a high number of inside 50s and time spent in our forward half, but with low quality shots on goal leading to an inaccurate score. The Giants often enough will break through our zone with pace and run and generate easier shots on goal. I think the idea of our pre-season has been to work out how to avoid this from happening. This week is probably our first look at seeing what we’ve done to address it.

There’s no doubt that without Pickett we are going to look slow against them. There’s also no doubt they are a talented side in contention this year. But Collingwood yesterday looked just as slow as I expect we will, and played one down on the field when N Daicos slowed to a walk, and yet generated similar scoring shots to 3QT and, on everyone’s favourite stat, the xScore margin at the end of the game was 2 points. Collingwood was also +21 in CPs, +4 in clearances and +1 in inside 50s. Tom Green makes a difference to these stats but they show you where GWS’s problems were. Unlike Collingwood, we should be able to take advantage of them having a weak ruck, plus we play at home not away (and hopefully not in the heat), plus we’re hopefully able to run the game out better than the Pies did, plus we get the benefit of an extra week to plan against what we just saw. So whilst they’re favourites, I can see how we win.

Great stuff, as always. Your site also tells us that in 2024 we scored more than our Expected Score across the season. On its face, this tells us that our inaccuracy last year comes principally from taking low-percentage shots on goal. We take far too many shots from angles (and interestingly, mainly the left hand side). @WheeloRatings Do you have the ability to break down how many games we lost where we ought to have won based on xScore, and vice versa? I'm interested to know whether the xScore across the season is skewed by outliers.

It’s both, isn’t it? There’s no doubt the quality of our entries has been too poor, generating too many low percentage shots from 40+ out on 45+ angles. I agree that comes from Goodwin/the FD believing that dominance of forward half territory was the way to go. But we lose enough games on expected score to tell us that we should be scoring more from the shots we do generate. We have unreliable kicks all over the field and, excluding Fritsch and Turner, that includes our forwards in set shots.

I assume when you say “preferred” you acknowledge this is no chance of happening? Like, for example, Turner suddenly playing defence alongside May, Lever and Petty?

This is what gets me, too. I like AJ, but he isn't playing unless we're dropping one of these three other guys. We haven't set up all summer with JVR, Turner, AJ and Fritsch. Yesterday AJ would have been on the bench until late but came on early because JVR went off. If we were going to play all four, we would have done so yesterday. AJ is priming himself for Turner's spot, IMO. Turner would want to start the year well.

I’m sure plenty wrote the season off at half time. It was a practice match. I’m principally concerned with the JVR injury and how we tried to move the ball. From the looks of it, we’re trying new things. It’s ok for them not to have worked well today. However we’d dearly want the goal kicking to be a cobweb-blow out sort of thing. Doesn’t matter how well we move the ball this year if we still can’t kick it between the big sticks.

Confirmed that Culley’s 46:

As an addendum to this, last week David King said we were one of 6-7 clubs who could be ruled out of flag contention. Despite this, yesterday he said he had us in his top 8, until last minute switching us out for Gold Coast. He does not have Sydney, Carlton, Port Adelaide or the Bulldogs in his top 8, despite ruling none of them out of flag contention last week. Strictly speaking not inconsistent, but generally speaking classic David King.

Gawn on radio yesterday said he’s playing, and he expects everyone to play except Melksham and McVee.

I think this is the right call. I don’t think we’ve had adequate midfield depth for a while now and from all reports Culley has done everything asked of him, and more, this pre-season. I reckon we’ll see him in the side earlier than many expect, even if only for a handful of games.

Cal Twomey’s article suggests the rationale to cutting it off as early as possible is to allow lower league clubs to know who is actually going to be playing for them, without fear that at any minute their players might be picked up by an AFL club. Surely the end of February/start of March isn’t too early for leagues which don’t start until the end of March? And even if it is, surely today (for example) is practically no different to Friday, but allows us and the other clubs who had their practice matches on Saturday to get in before the cut off?

He obviously can’t given who he’s employed by, but tbh I think he’s conceding as much with the word “quirk”. It was so obviously foreseeable.

The official AFL website is running a fan survey, with a bunch of respectful questions on there, like this one… Guess they forgot the “none of them” option…?

As much as the result is pleasing given we had 10-12 best 22 out and they had maybe 2 out, it was a practice match so the result is largely meaningless. For those who were able to watch, I’m far more interested in our game plan - how did we set up, did we press high, how did we move the ball, etc?

His reasoning was, as usual, not bullet proof. Cornes said he’d rule Port Adelaide out and King said he wouldn’t rule them out because Butters, JHF and Rozee might all go berserk and that might be enough, despite them being weak both in the backline and the forward line. Surely similar logic applies to us with, say, Trac, Clarry and Gawn?

Is it just me or is this clip not doing the rounds on Demonland already?

So it could be be a Cometti favourite - the third of two options (Henderson over both Culley and George)

Pretty damning interview. I applaud his honesty tbh. But it’s abundantly clear that he wants out. I suppose we have 6 months to convince him to change his mind.

The timing of this match is the sort of thing that needs to be raised at the AGM. Why are we embarrassing ourselves and our hardworking volunteers? Is there a good reason? I certainly can’t think of a good reason for a Friday afternoon timeslot in school term. The McAdam injury is devastating given his changed fitness and attitude this pre-season. Only serves to compound the frustration that comes with Pickett’s suspension.

That’s what you took from that? It’s arguably (maybe inarguably) the most open/candid interview he’s ever given. Which may not be saying much given he’s renowned for being a deadpan closed book, but makes the interview insightful all the same.

In part three, Goodwin on Oliver: The Demons have spoken privately with Oliver and admitted he should not have been floated in any trade scenarios with rival clubs last year without telling him first. Oliver, 27, was blindsided when he discovered in the media the Demons had raised his name with Adelaide, prompting the gun midfielder to have his own talks with Geelong last year. The messy saga continued a difficult year for the Demons, but Goodwin said the club had worked hard with Oliver to wipe the slate clean and prime him physically to help rediscover his best. Goodwin said he shared “an incredibly close relationship” with the brilliant ballwinner and was adamant Oliver was all-in on helping drive the Demons forward after a tough end to last year. “It was certainly uncomfortable how things played out publicly last year, but Clayton is really aware of how much I love him and how proud I am of the journey he has been on,” Goodwin told the Herald Sun. “And just how much the whole club loves him and how much we want him to be part of the footy club. “I have known him for 10 years and we have ridden the ups and downs and it has been a hell of a journey. “But right now we are writing a new path and from all of the conversations I have had with him he is as engaged as anyone. He loves his teammates, and he wants to be part of something (special) again. “He holds the pen for the new chapter as we all do.” At his best, the four-time best-and-fairest winner and 2021 AFL Coaches Association player of the year is one of most dynamic clearance-winners in the game. But Goodwin said fans should not expect Oliver to be at full power straight away as he continues to build fitness and touch after a challenging 12 months. He played 21 games last season but did not finish inside the top-10 of the best and fairest, indicating how much ground he has to make up after some personal issues, in part, wiped out last pre-season. “He has missed a lot of footy and a lot of training and this is what this whole pre-season has been about, connecting him back to the game, and getting him ultimately back to his best,” he said. “I think that will take some time, so we need to temper our expectations a little bit in terms of where he will be initially. “There are some challenges, but there are also a lot of opportunities. “We are confident if we keep working with him he will get to where he wants to get to and as part of that it is about being a great teammate.”

On himself: Goodwin married his partner, Kristine Brooks, who is the Australian boss of investment group Milford, in front of family and friends in Bali over Christmas, and said he has “never been happier”. “I feel as light as I’ve ever felt. It’s been a tough period,” he said. “To have the things spoken about me personally has been tough. “I’m (now) happily married. It was an incredible time with the family. “I put myself out there with my (all-white) outfit, clearly. I walked out there (for the wedding ceremony) and my brother said ‘What number are you batting?’ And then I walked a little bit further down the aisle and Bernie Vince said ‘Are you playing bowls for Stansbury?’ (laughing) “So I’ve never been happier. I feel fresh and I’m enjoying coaching as much as I ever have and hopefully everything is all behind us. “Hopefully, in time, people will see the person I am and we can all move forward.”