titan_uranus

This is truly pathetic from Richmond. It's likely just a one off but the amount of lazy jogging, half-assed tackle attempts, ill-discipline and breakdown of structures is just baffling for a side with this much talent and only one or two players missing.

Richmond are responding to this like bad Melbourne would. They've sent their entire 18 up into their defensive 50. So every time they get a turnover and look to rebound, they take off and see no one in front of them. So their last two defensive half turnovers have resulted in zero points scored because they have nothing forward of centre.

It's worth bearing in mind that Sydney barely have an injury list: Fox, Naismith and Ronke, all average players anyway. Probably the best-placed side in the comp right now on the injury front. Funnily enough, I think Richmond would also be up there for shortest injury list right now (Prestia's gone down today though).

It's the blue print to beat anyone. They're belting Richmond in the centre and there are few to no defences that can withstand inside 50s coming in with no pressure.

Sydney's next two are Essendon and GWS. Even if they lose this from here, you'd expect them to be 4-1. Their repeat games are GWS, Essendon, Fremantle, St Kilda and Gold Coast. Really, really favourable list there, which happens when you finish bottom 4 I suppose.

As I said, Brisbane didn't show up in Round 1 and Adelaide is still Adelaide. It's easy to get carried away when a younger/rejuvenated squad starts a season well but it wouldn't have been surprising at all for them to slump today. The fact that they're not means they deserve to be rated. Richmond are getting pantsed in the middle and it's not just because Prestia is injured. No midfield pressure on Sydney means they can take their pick of forward half options, and that's without Franklin in the side. It's incredible that Tom Hickey is playing well. A journeyman in every sense of the word.

Been looking at scoring maps on statsinsider.com.au. Here's a comparison of heat maps of all our shots on goal from Round 1 2019 to date, compared with Richmond. Obviously Richmond have generated more shots through that time than us given our relative poor form, but we seem to generate too many shots from 30+ metres whilst Richmond are more central and closer to goal. Hopefully we see more shots from closer/straight in 2021 than this.

Here is a map showing Fritsch's set shots so far this year: So, obviously, he's taking his shots in low-percentage positions. Having said that, the two behinds on the left are the preferable side for a left-footer. Here's the same map for Fritsch since Round 1 2019: Same deal. Very few shots from the corridor. A heap of shots from 30-50m out on the flanks. Some of it is intentional I'm sure, but some of it is Fritsch leading to the wrong places. Obviously the left flank and pocket are not good scoring zones for him, but he's already taken four shots from that area in the first two rounds.

Meanwhile the advantage rule is broken IMO. So many umpires wait to see if the team who takes advantage retains possession and if they don't, they recall it. That's not how the rule works. If you take it, and immediately turn it over, bad luck. Case in point just now: Sydney had a free, player picked it up and kicked it, turned it over, so the umpire called it back and that gave Sydney a new possession and a goal.

Agree re: the Sunday 3.20pm slot. Our destiny is in our hands TBH. If we can maintain good form through the first six rounds (beating GWS and Hawthorn, meaning we're 4-2 at the worst, is critical), we give ourselves the best chance of a Friday or Saturday night slot (or a Thursday if those persist). The Round 8 Sydney game is surely a chance if we can both keep our early season form up.

I'll take Sydney seriously if they keep this up. Don't currently rate their wins vs Brisbane (didn't show up in Round 1) or Adelaide (still a bottom 10 side). Having said that, there don't really appear to be too many bad sides this year. North obviously is appalling, as bad as anything we've seen since us in 2013. Essendon looks bad too. But who else is a bottom 4 contender? GWS? Hawthorn? Carlton? They have repeat games against Port Adelaide, West Coast, Gold Coast, us and North. They've still got six interstate trips and a trip to Geelong. Not sure it's the "easiest" at all.

I think there's a hybrid possibility, whereby games are locked in for the entire season but with certain Saturday games eligible to be swapped into the Friday night slot, or the Saturday night slot, something like 2 or so weeks in advance. Largely allows flexibility but then avoids dud games getting prime time slots. As to the Round 7-12 block, our problems are: In Round 8 we play Sydney but we'll have to compete with Richmond v Geelong and the Showdown In Round 9 we play Carlton but Port plays the Dogs, St Kilda plays Geelong and Sydney plays Collingwood In Round 11 we play the Dogs but Collingwood plays Geelong In Round 12 we play Brisbane in Alice Springs, but it's Dreamtime at the G that week too. If we and Brisbane remain OK, would they put that game on a Friday night? Would be great, I think. But as you say, if we win and hopefully look OK doing so this Sunday, we'll give ourselves our best chance of getting good timeslots on FTA. Carlton and Essendon continuing to struggle will help us too, as it should mean they aren't in serious contention for those slots.

A truly excellent post. Under Goodwin we used to bring the spare up to the stoppage when our opponent would drop it into their backline. We'd inevitably win the clearance but regularly turn it over kicking to their spare defender. We can't expect that each week our opponent will leave a spare player behind the ball like St Kilda did, but it's a set up that works for us and it shows me that we're learning how to adapt to our list: as you say, we can afford to be one down at stoppages because of who we send to them. I'd say the Dogs aren't too bad aerially in the forward line with Naughton, Bruce and English dropping down there too Their issue is their backline. They rely on Wood to be a key defender and their other key defenders, Keath and Gardiner, are really average. Their midfield isn't as crowded as it sounds though. Smith plays off half-back and Dunkley outer on the wing to free up space. Bontempelli goes forward too, and is another aerial threat. So they have some flexibility in half their mids that allows them to rotate them through other parts of the ground.

That's the problem, though. Can we trust Melksham to chase, defend, gut run and put his body on the line? His skills are something that will make us better, I agree with that. His ability to nail 45-degree angle passes from the wing through the corridor, and to hit targets on a lead, is essential. But if he can't/won't defend and work hard, he cannot play.

Righto. So you're OK with trading Pickett, May, Lever, Gawn, Viney, Langdon, Salem, Rivers?

Probably advantage them. We're 2-5 at Manuka, and haven't played there since 2017. Against GWS we're 1-2 at the ground, winning in GWS' first season and then losing in 2015 and 2017. GWS is 13-11 at Manuka, but most of the losses were early on. They are 12-3 at the ground since 2015.

It was highlighted by Matthew Lloyd on the AFL website. Showed behind the goals footage showing Gawn pushing back to get in the hole and take intercept marks without a Saints player following him. It's that workrate and endurance that makes Gawn as good as he is.

The Spargo/ANB pressure acts stat is great. But the other stat I took notice of in that article was the 100% TOG stat: Langdon, May and Tomlinson all played 100% of the game. Langdon, a winger, playing 100% of the game. That's insane. I'd love to know if any other mids/wingers are clocking 100% game time in 2021. Having players like them (and Lever I think did it in Round 1) who can stay out on the field all day without compromising their own performance, freeing up the limited rotations to use on those who need it, must surely be some sort of advantage for us (however small).

Nope, it was 51,723.

A lot gets said about his hit outs not converting into clearance dominance. Whilst I'm sure there could be improvement in the Gawn-mid connection at stoppages, Gawn's value is not just hit outs. He has always been a near-elite runner for someone of his size, and the work he does to either get back into the hole in defence or push forward to stretch our opponent's defence is critical. There aren't many rucks who can do all of that alongside him. It's that sort of ground coverage which, added to actual ruckwork, make Gawn so good (and similarly are why Naitanui, Grundy and Goldstein have been good in recent years).

They played two 3.35pm games last year (one was against us). But yes, yesterday was Richmond's first game using a red Sherrin since the 2019 Grand Final (the red Sherrin only gets use for games starting prior to 3pm, so these days only the Saturday 1.45pm and 2.10pm games and Sunday 1.10pm games get it). The red Sherrin barely got used in 2020, with so many night games during the compressed fixture. We only used it twice (which is not common for us given the number of day games we usually get in an ordinary season).

I think our forward line efficiency this year is showing us a few things. The first is that the names on paper are actually reaching more than the sum of their parts: TMac is closer to 2018 than 2020 TMac, Spargo/Pickett/ANB are working together really well and each one has started 2021 better than 2020, and Fritsch is improving in most respects other than set shots. The other thing it's showing me is that we are improving our overall system and ball movement. We're still not nailing all our passes inside 50 but we're trying to get the ball in the right players' hands (e.g. more kicks from Spargo, fewer from, say, Gawn) and we're generating better scoring chains because we're set up better right across the ground. The more we intercept our opponents across half back through May, Lever and Tomlinson, the more we can generate meaningful scoring chains the way we want to and planned to. Agree re: Salem and Hunt. ANB certainly has the aerobic capacity to play the wing, but he's currently doing really well in his forward role. He, Spargo and Pickett are working together in the forward line really well. To be fair, I think Brayshaw is probably doing better on that wing from a defensive perspective than we give him credit for. We don't see a lot of drive through the non-Langdon wing but that may well be exactly what we want. Anyway, maybe the example I gave of the wing isn't the best example, but just as I won't throw the baby out with the bathwater when we eventually lose a game and look bad in the process, I don't think it's fair after two wins to call our previously iffy coaching "phenomenal".

If you were capable of learning lessons, the bolded bit is the key here, and would impact your final line.

I don't know if I'd say the coaching is "phenomenal" (we're still putting Jones and Brayshaw on a wing), but I do agree with you that the way we've generated these two wins has been significant. They weren't both CP/clearance/forward half dominance games, like most of our wins in 2018 were. Indeed, against St Kilda whilst we were +14 in CPs, we broke even in clearances and only had +1 inside 50.

Like with us, judgment should be reserved for at least the first four games for most sides (exceptions: Richmond, North Melbourne). Case in point: Hawthorn started last year 3-1 with wins over Brisbane and Richmond. Finished in the bottom four at 5-12. Sydney's looked good in the first two weeks but Brisbane didn't show up in Round 1 and Adelaide are still a bottom four side, made to look good by Geelong who also didn't turn up in Round 1. That's not to say Sydney isn't a good side this year, it's just too early to say it. You what?! Mate. It's Round 2.