titan_uranus

Top 8 is nearly set. GWS probably just need to find one more win, albeit that's tough with Brisbane and the Dogs away and Fremantle at home. If they lose all three, Hawthorn can pass them by winning all three (Carlton, West Coast and North), and can even pass them with a loss to Carlton next week, provided they make up the percentage gap. The other 7 sides shouldn't miss from here - Carlton and the Dogs have easy enough fixtures to win 2 more games each and get to 14 (Dogs should make it on 13 due to their percentage anyway). How classic for us will it be if we miraculously go 3-0 from here, finish 13-10 and become the first ever (I think) side to miss finals on 13-10?

GWS’ accuracy was the only thing keeping them going the last month, and helped them against us last week. 2.9 today. Of course it’s against Hawthorn that they finally have an accuracy stinker. Hawks win this, they make finals. Brace yourselves, everyone. It’s happening.

I don’t agree with the premise of your argument. The three years under Roos fixed a lot of problems but it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest Goodwin was just handed everything he needed. At any rate, Chris Scott fits the bill of the question you’re asking. And is the only one of the coaches I mentioned who has more flags than Goodwin. I’d also argue that Voss, Longmuir and McRae started off with stronger platforms based on their clubs’ lists and cultures. And plenty of other coaches have failed with more.

Free entry for kids isn’t going to make parents take their kids to a night game. Again, a night game against an interstate side in the middle of winter at the G is a ridiculous timeslot.

Yeah but you said his body is made of paper, he’s 30 and he has ongoing soft tissue. Despite that, you think another club (but not us) can and will turn that around? Hugely different situation to the players you mentioned. None of them were leaders of their respective clubs, Bennell didn’t even have a club, whilst Daniher wanted out of Essendon and McCarthy couldn’t get a game when fit. I agree that on recent form Salem’s not attracting a high pick. That’s my point and what makes this silly. Given who he is at this club (ie a leader, at a time when we need to be playing a lot of kids), getting a third rounder for him means IMO we’re much better off doing what you seem to think other clubs can do and get his body right so that he can continue to be a leader of this club.

Go through the coaches of the better sides this year: Longmire's just "coached" Sydney to a 112 point loss. In consecutive weeks they've kicked a total of 12 goals, 3 of which came in the last 10 minutes of junk time last week. This from a side with about two best 22 players missing and with the so-called unbeatable midfield of Heeney, Warner and Gulden. Just one flag, none for 12 years. Fagan's had his side up for 6 seasons now without a flag. Even if he wins it this year, that's no more than Goodwin Longmuir is unproven and has only made the finals once so far Hinkley was booed off his home ground five weeks ago and has had the job for 10 years without even a GF appearance, let alone a flag Chris Scott has two flags, but it took him 11 years to get the second one, despite having a list with Hawkins, Selwood, Dangerfield, Cameron, Stewart etc. on it Beveridge is 8 years post his flag without a second one, despite a list with the game's best player on it and a midfield that bats deeper than anyone's. Missed the finals last year, and when they're struggling resorts to pot-shots in the media and dropping players out of nowhere Voss is struggling to even qualify for finals (was in the bottom 4 until two-thirds of the way into 2023 and hasn't quite got there yet in 2024) despite having Cripps, Walsh, Curnow, Mackay and Weitering McRae is still odds on to miss finals the year after his flag Mitchell is discussed in some circles as the second coming of Leigh Matthews but hasn't actually achieved anything yet Kingsley is like Mitchell except with one prelim appearance Hardwick is a great but has taken GC and cannot get them to win a game away from home, despite what I believe has been a relatively smooth run with injury this year Goodwin has a flag and, unless Collingwood pulls off something extraordinary from here, will be the only one of the last four premiership coaches to get his side back into the finals the following year.

If you have Carlton, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Essendon all missing finals...you must have us making it. Can't work otherwise. FWIW Carlton's last two games should mean they can't miss, as that's enough to get them to 14 even if they lose to Hawthorn. Hawthorn have to beat at least one of GWS and Carlton and then they will get to 14 given they have the bottom 2 in their final fortnight. GWS remains at most risk of being the side Hawthorn passes. They can beat Hawthorn tomorrow and still miss as they close with Brisbane, Fremantle and the Dogs. No guarantee to win any of those, so even with a win tomorrow they'd stall at 13. If you are still playing at home, I think possibly our only realistic path to finals now is for us to take GWS' spot, which requires this: We win all three (obviously) (gets us to 13) Hawthorn loses to both GWS and Carlton and take a percentage beating, such that we finish the season above them on percentage at 13-10 GWS loses its other three games (Brisbane, Fremantle, Dogs) and sheds enough percentage for us to pass them, also at 13-10 Collingwood loses to at least one of Sydney and Brisbane (they'd cap out at 12) Essendon loses at least two of Sydney, Brisbane and Fremantle (they'd cap out at 12.5)

If this is correct, why the [censored] would any other club take him? If your answer is "leadership", think about how players like Rory Atkins to GC or Hugh Greenwood to North have gone. And if you think we'd only get a 3rd round pick for him, that only confirms how silly this proposal is.

May out, I vote Petty to take his place. Get a three-game head start on what should happen in pre-season, which is that Petty returns to defence.

Did you read anything else I wrote?

I don't agree. It's obviously uncontroversial that we didn't know we were going to lose Brayshaw. But the rest is precisely what good list management is supposed to cover for. During our "up" period over the last four years, we have IMO relied too heavily (both in our list management and on game day) on Gawn, Oliver, Petracca and Viney being fit and able to carry us through seasons. The list needed more attention to the midfield over the last few years, not just last year, to ensure that with the inevitable injuries (long term or short) and fluctuations in form/fitness, we wouldn't be caught out like we have been this year. Of course, list management isn't the only reason for our current predicament. Injuries have played their role. But I feel the problem with the position you take on here is that you put injuries as the far and away biggest determinant/factor, almost to the point of disregarding other factors. Obviously no Trac/Gus and Oliver/Viney/Gawn injured/unfit makes us worse, but Collingwood are closer to finals than we are and have had a much worse spate of injuries this year than we have.

If Goodwin had a 1-3 GF record having had Buddy Franklin for those 3 losses, and was coaching a side with Heeney, Warner and Gulden in it which trailed 71-0 in the second quarter, this thread would still exist. The double standards on Demonland are profound. Watch any of the spineless drivel Sydney served up in that first 1.5 quarters and ask yourself whether that was any better than anything you’ve seen from us this year. And then remind yourself that their opponent is a side whose crowd booed their coach off the field a month ago.

Thanks @WheeloRatings . An absolute disaster for us. We are, right now at least, not able to play good football when the ball is stuck in our back half.

@WheeloRatings when was the last time we had such a low percentage in our forward half?

Thanks @WheeloRatings. -12 total clearance at HT and -8 to 3QT. Junk time clearances evened up the figures but the damage had been done.

Good post, sorry to cherry pick this bit (in answer to your broader question, personnel is a huge point - the list is just too bare of midfielders and the good ones are injured). But this is an important point IMO. It’s become a bit of a Demonland myth that if the oppo doesn’t score heaps from stoppage, that means the midfield wasn’t that bad. Part of the reason we concede heaps from turnover is because we are turning it over under the pressure of repeat entries into our D50, and that is coming off the back of being beaten at stoppage. The midfield has been our biggest issue all year and it’s showing now more than ever.

That’s what I said - May out injured, Petty goes back, Jefferson comes in.

Rivers has shown more than enough to suggest he'll make it as a midfielder. Particularly if we give him a pre-season to work on it, rather than thrusting him in there mid-year without warning. Agree otherwise though.

Wouldn't mind a breakdown of the stoppage stats (maybe @WheeloRatings can do that?). I thought at one stage early we were down in clearances something like 14-3 or something bad like that?

May obviously injured, feels like Gawn, Oliver and Viney are too. TMac's form has disintegrated in a fortnight. We've spent all year trying to force the square peg that is Petty into the round hole that is our forward line. I think that experiment can end. With May going out, put Petty back and accept that from now on he's a defender. He will have TMac's spot next year, most likely. If that means it's time to play Jefferson in the forward line, so be it.

Getting Grundy wasn't all that bad. It didn't work but that was in equal parts on Grundy himself, Gawn and the FD overall. The idea wasn't a shocker. But otherwise yes, our list management is a far more significant reason for why we're where we are right now. The conventional wisdom for years from those who don't like Goody has been that our list has masked his poor coaching. I continue to believe it's actually the opposite - we'd have been worse under a lesser coach. Our fortunes in 2025 turn on what we can achieve this off-season beyond the draft.

All the way as far back as two weeks ago. Hawthorn 20.13.133 def. Collingwood 9.13.67. Collingwood completely annihilated all game. I mean, the Dogs a month ago lost to Port by 48, 27 scoring shots to 14, with a goalless first quarter. Most sides this year have had a game where they've been flogged. Our problem is we've had five (Fremantle twice, West Coast, Collingwood, and tonight).

The chickens of what has clearly been inadequate list management have come home to roost. The running theme in our poor performances this year has been our uncompetitiveness in the midfield. We weren't to know what was going to happen with Gus, but as soon as that happened, we had insufficient depth to cover. It only got worse once it became clear that Oliver was nowhere near what we need him to be. The sooner we accept that our midfield is the core of all of our problems, the better. We can add to this a fitness program that has failed us, too. Being completely outworked by a side off a 5-day break at this time of year, when we're supposed to be running over the ground, is all the proof we need. Whatever we're doing isn't working. So much of what made us good for three years has evaporated this year. For three and a bit years I had confidence that, even when down in general play, we could turn games around. I had confidence that we could hold up behind the ball. I had confidence that we'd see consistent effort most quarters and most weeks. Sadly, I've lost a lot of that confidence. The future doesn't have to be as bleak as this season though. We now have a chance this off-season to address the problems that are staring us in the face. If we can get the off-season right, there's plenty to work with for 2025. But we're not good enough to get it wrong. And the chance for redemption in 2025 shouldn't be offered to everyone. Too many mistakes in list management and line coaching mean that some are going to have to depart and fresh faces/voices will be needed.

I'm with @Binmans PA on this. As much as a player like Waterman would be a good addition, IMO he's not "the one name we should be throwing everything we can at". I'd even argue that a lesser forward who can properly relief ruck is more important than Waterman. Improving our midfield and finding a forward/ruck will IMO help solve the problems that Waterman would also solve.

Last chance saloon for us. Their 5 day break, after an interstate trip, after being in Geelong the week prior, gives us some sort of edge, but on current form this doesn’t look great. If we lapse in the middle two quarters like we did last week, we’re no chance.