titan_uranus

Unsurprising changes. I’d have liked to see Billings replace Sharp, but I didn’t get my hopes up.

Look, they're on a 5-day break and had a few forced outs through injury, but also: They're now down by 49 points, but probably could be more given they're yet again kicking accurately at 13.6 compared to the Dogs' 20.14 (i.e. 32 scoring shots to 19) For all of their "improvement", the only sides they've beaten are us, Richmond (just), West Coast (just) and Carlton (just). For all of our problems, we have two wins over the top 6 On the live ladder they are 9.5% behind us. And our percentage stinks.

You have a point but I'm not quite with you. Yes, speed of ball movement has to be analysed carefully with a bunch of other factors. Fremantle is a genuine top 4 contender despite being far and away the slowest ball movement side in the competition. We're a bottom 4 contender despite being tied for the fastest ball movement side in the competition. But we have clearly changed how we play because we haven't rated this fast before. Hoyne's said it on his radio gig this year. We used to be slower. Some have said "oh well we're only fast because we dump kick it 50m direct to goal and turn it over". The data in the article you've linked shows that isn't the case. We are the fastest side in the competition when measuring how fast we dispose of it once we get it. We are also bang on AFL average, 100, for "distance to goal", which measures nothing but metres towards goal. So if our speed was being driven by dump 50m kicks, we'd be higher in that third category and probably slower in the others. Of course, speed doesn't say anything about scoring, or disposal efficiency, or turnovers/clangers, or literally anything else. It just tells us how sides try to move the ball, and it tells us that we are moving it quicker than almost anyone. That is a provable way in which Goodwin has changed how we play. We never used to be like this. But we aren't making it work right now. Not only are we not scoring enough, we are getting opened up behind the ball in ways which 2021-23 Melbourne never would. There's no point going this fast if we can't make it work, and I'm not convinced by anyone who says "all we have to do is give this time and it'll come together". We are so devoid of foot skills and forward 50 marking options on our list that there's every chance we just cannot make this sort of speed work.

Agree. But of course we’ll see JVR forced to ruck when Gawn’s off, and probably only play 70% game time, giving him a handicap in terms of trying to actually play as a forward.

Lever’s named in the 18, which I think means he’s in. Presumably it’s JVR for Petty. I’d personally like to see Billings get Sharp’s spot. Not because Billings is the obvious answer to our problems, but just to acknowledge his VFL form and Sharp’s lack thereof.

You know that you’re guilty of doing the same thing you’re critical of here? You’re letting the coach off the hook whilst simultaneously criticising others for letting the players off the hook. Of course, neither argument is right. Our malaise is an all-club problem. Goodwin’s not flying. The players aren’t either.

Your inability to go a week without football shouldn’t mean the 10th best side (ie in the bottom half of the comp) gets to play a final just so you get another game to watch.

How much less of a “shambles” will it be if we bring this in and then at this stage of the year teams 12-18 are out of contention and unlikely to make it to 10th? A marginal reduction in “irrelevant” games. The top 6 premium is a distraction from the truth, which is that we’re rewarding 10 teams with finals, not 8. Imagine we played well all year but finished 7th, on percentage. Instead of getting to play 6th, we instead play some side which struggled all season and in mediocrity finished 10th, in the bottom half of the comp. How would you feel about risking one bad day after 23 rounds and being straight out? How is that “rewarding excellence”? We’re rewarding mediocrity in favour of letting 10th play one good game and all of a sudden skip straight past 7th. As per my previous post - there is such a thing as too much footy. We are killing the goose that laid the golden egg

Exactly (whether sarcastic or not). What happens when a gap between 10th and 11th opens up at this stage of the season? We’ll get someone saying “why not have 11th play 10th for the right to play 7th”. The BBL did this, had too many games and finals. Ratings capitulated. They realised that there is such a thing as too much cricket. They pared it back. There is such a thing as too much footy.

Our injury list is not something we can complain about…but I’d really love to see Sestan, AMW and McAdam in our side right now.

Last night on SEN Hoyne commented on a few of our players, including Salem. Mentioned that Salem is rated 257th in the league on Champion Data’s rankings (take your grain of salt if you want) and is outside the top 300 over the last six weeks. Then added that he takes the 11th easiest kicks of anyone in the comp. No idea how that’s measured but it’s data which confirms a view I’ve had for a while. He’s just going and we need way more from our half backs than what he actually produces. We get seduced by the concept of him being a good kick but he doesn’t actually impact games with his kicking to the standard we should expect. I think he should be seriously considered for a spell at Casey.

If I’m reading the internet correctly, at the end of 2021 Collingwood brought in Lipinski and N Daicos, plus a bunch of others who haven’t achieved much. Which would mean that 21 of the 23 players who took them to a 1-point prelim loss in 2022 were on their list in Buckley’s final season, in which they finished bottom 2. So McRae largely got them bouncing back straight away without major list changes. Obviously N Daicos makes a huge difference but he didn’t, in 2022, change them from a bottom 2 side to a top 4 side. I don’t understand your constant “but this ignores the countless times new coaches have failed to change a club’s fortunes”. Is anyone saying a change of coach is guaranteed to make us better? Aside from maybe some fringe posters, I doubt it. But you tend to come across as “a change in coach is guaranteed to do nothing without major list changes”, which is equally wrong. Collingwood in 2021-22 is an example.

The club’s photos from today’s training on Instagram show some in blue and some in white, with Chandler, Salem, Tholstrup and Pickett in blue and Windsor, TMac, Laurie, Woewodin and Spargo in white. Not sure if that’s reflective of upcoming selection, or just last week’s teams. Or anything at all, really.

Of course Buckley and other media people want it. Buckley’s even admitted on radio that the main benefit is more revenue, because 10th isn’t likely to win a flag. Having 9 and 10 make finals is stupid. Having a side like us, 5-10 with sub-90%, able to snag a few late wins and finish 10th and have the same standing as a side like Adelaide, Hawthorn or Brisbane, who could all easily finish 7th, is stupid. We’re not one year removed from one of the most even seasons we’ve ever seen. Yes, this year is shaping to be less exciting for the run home, but allowing sides to make finals from 10th doesn’t fix that problem. It just renders even more of the H&A season less relevant.

All fair comments. Having the two CEOs at the conference is sub-optimal to say the least, given Chippendall ran for the job and didn’t get it.

Generally agree with this. One of Lever or TMac has to come back, but can Lever really go one-on-one with Walker (or Fogarty, or Thilthorpe)? I'm not sure. Might have to be TMac who gets that spot. Wouldn't bother me - whilst TMac doesn't appear to be the future, Lever didn't do much at Casey and whilst Lever finds himself down there due to form, TMac's down there due to a very tough selection call. At least TMac's recent AFL form was good. Up forward, we are really in dire straits. I expect JVR to return, and I subsequently expect Adelaide's tall defenders to set some records for intercept marking. We really need someone else who can take a mark down the line. Your argument for Campbell to come in is a good one but I just don't see it happening. We can make room for Billings, Laurie or Culley if we want. Is Salem playing well enough to hold his spot? Does Sparrow live off his 5 tackles and 17 pressure acts, given he otherwise struggles to get involved (10 touches, 135 metres gained, and no CBAs)? Is Sharp that much better than those three you mentioned?

I know this was sarcasm but this is actually our entire problem. Almost everyone on our list is either good at winning their own ball, or good at kicking, but not both. Trac, Oliver, Viney and Gawn get spoken of enough. Rivers is in the same basket. At their best in 2021-23 the first three tore games apart to the point where we could cover for their kicking. Now that they’ve slid back, and with the other 17 clubs all learning how to win by scoring from the back half, their strengths are no longer proportionate to their contracts (at least for Clarry and Viney, anyway). Then there’s players like Spargo, Laurie and Billings. Sure, they can kick, but what use is it to us if they can’t find it more than 10 times a game? (And, for the first two, they also have to deal with below average foot speed). Which is why Koz, Langford, Lindsay, Bowey and Windsor (maybe Kolt) need to be invested in.

The Alice game has nothing to do with us being given the Port, GC and Adelaide games in a row.

The longer the season goes on, particularly one where we’ve had a great run with injuries, the more our list problems come to the fore. Why isn’t Viney playing forward? Because we got so badly beaten at stoppage in the first quarter, Goodwin felt he had no choice but to put him back in the middle. It was a disheartening moment IMO. We didn’t stay the course. We planned for Viney to play forward but couldn’t actually do it. I hope we don’t abandon that plan and try it again this week.

Joel Freijah went at 45. Every club missed him, but still, wouldn’t he be a great addition to our side. As for the OP, I agree with those who defend our kids given they are just that. Our biggest issue is the ongoing reliance on senior players who aren’t performing. 19 and 20 year olds who aren’t getting consistent runs at it are not the focal point right now. However, I’m not quite sure of Kolt’s AFL-quality talents. You mention his clean hands - that might be fair, but he has to get more of the ball, and in contest, for us to be able to judge that.

What are you talking about? Fiorini was trying to pick the ball up, and Petty went in head first. Pickett chose to bump. Yes, he got unlucky that Moore went to ground, and I didn’t like the suspension, but the two are nothing at all alike.

What do you mean “accepted”? We don’t get a choice. We also get what we deserve when we had sub-20,000 crowds in the last 2 months of last year. If our crowds drop off further in the last 2 months of this year, expect more of the same for our 2026 fixture.

Petty and Howes miss with concussion. JVR comes back because there's no one else. Lever's the better fit but whilst TMac's struggling at Casey, he at least was doing well in the AFL before he was dropped. Ironically, despite our injury list and run with fitness/injuries this year being as good as it's ever been, other than Windsor and JVR who just got dropped, possibly the only players on our list I really want to see get back into the side are AWM, McAdam and Sestan, who are the only actually injured players we have. Instead, what do we do - make Laurie the sub again? Give Woewodin, Brown or Culley a game off middling (at best) VFL form? Billings?

One part of what happened today really resonates with me as the crux of our list problem. We make the call pre-game to play Viney forward, acknowledging that we can't keep playing Viney with Oliver, Trac and Gawn as our majority midfielders who cannot deliver the ball inside 50 in a way which wins us games. What happens? We get annihilated at contest in the first quarter, so badly that we have no choice but to put Viney back into the middle to fix it. Therein lies our problem - our list has no midfield depth on it, which means we can't do what we desperately need to do and replace Viney and Oliver with players who can kick. The ones who can kick can't compete, whether because they're too young (Langford) or, mainly, they're just not good enough as midfielders (Sparrow, Salem, Rivers, Laurie, Woewodin, Billings, Brown).

Third game out of our the last four on the road. A player down for three quarters (we had 13 fewer interchange rotations as a result). Opponent is a top 8 contender who’s lost something like 2 games at home in 2 years. Is that enough to offset a disgraceful first quarter? Laying just 7 tackles in the first quarter (to their 18) despite them having 23 more touches is nothing but unacceptable. And if that wasn’t enough, we then had 8 more inside 50s (all in the fourth) and 7 more scoring shots than them across the last three quarters but only outscored them by a combined 17 points, because we kicked 12.12 to their 10.7. Yet another game where we have one awful quarter, and yet another game of inaccuracy (is it any wonder that the inaccuracy got worse as the game got closer? No, is the answer).