titan_uranus

My current thinking around the "run home" (which at this point is better described as the second half of the season). We have 12 games remaining. 6 of them are against sides currently below us on the ladder (St Kilda x 2, Carlton, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, West Coast). The other 6 are, obviously, against sides currently above us (Collingwood x 2, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Bulldogs). If we win the 6 games against the sides below us, that gets us 11 wins. We'd then need at least 2, maybe 3, of the other 6 to get into the top 8. For every game we drop against the lower ranked sides we have to win another one against the higher ranked sides. It won't be easy, but it's doable. Going into the byes last year Hawthorn was 4-7 with a percentage of 82.8%, but got their percentage up to 118.5% by winning 10 of their last 12 games - however, 6 of their last 7 wins were by 60+ points, including a 124 point win vs North in the final round. If we fall short, we're going to seriously rue the loss to GWS most of all, and then the terrible fourth quarter drop offs vs North, Geelong, Essendon and Hawthorn. The percentage damage we took when those margins blew out late could easily ruin us, if we do get on a roll from here.

That wasn’t to the head. It was to the side. Seemed totally fair to me.

I’d say “decent chance” for finals, at best, not “almost certainties”. We have a tough fixture and strong competition for top 8 spots, and we did exhibit some truly rank football 6 weeks ago. One week at a time.

A good question. Surely Laurie gets a go.

Fully agree that we can’t get too confident this week (or any week tbh). But St Kilda have lost 6 of their last 7. Yes the win in the middle was a 10 goal win over Fremantle but Freo didn’t turn up that day. They’ve also lost to West Coast and Carlton in the last 3 weeks, neither of whom are good/in form. Again, don’t get me wrong, if we don’t bring our A game we lose, but I’ll say that every week. Just like Sydney, my view is we are a better side than St Kilda and should win this if we play anything like we have the last 6 weeks.

Well we’ve beaten Brisbane, and Fremantle (9th, out of the 8 on percentage only), lost to GWS (8th) by a kick in somewhat unlucky circumstances and played well against Hawthorn. That resume isn’t actually all that bad. Hawthorn, the Dogs and Adelaide have each only beaten one top 8 side (GWS for both). GWS has beaten two (Collingwood and Geelong).

Scapula yes, but club saying 4-6. Injured in the incident before the Mills hit. Viney likely but not confirmed. https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/1792732/injury-report-strong-session-strengthens-viney-case

Spargo confirmed out for 4-6 with a scapula injury. Viney likely but not confirmed. https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/1792732/injury-report-strong-session-strengthens-viney-case

The latest example of the MRO system being the AFL's most embarrassing joke. Why does the "potential to cause serious injury" thing get rolled out some times (e.g. Pickett on Smith in 2023) but not others? Why not here? What Mills did was reckless and had clear potential to KO Spargo, even though it didn't. Meanwhile Paul Curtis gets three weeks for a tackle that was almost done perfectly but still accidentally caused concussion, whilst Jackson Archer and now Alex Pearce get three weeks for largely unavoidable collisions. Just a genuinely broken farce, the MRO.

Viney for Spargo. I'd be comfortable making that change even if Spargo is fit - IMO he's clearly 23 out of 23 right now and Viney will come back assuming he's fit. Interesting question if Spargo's injured and Viney still isn't right. Laurie? TMac for Lever if there's even a shadow of doubt over Lever's fitness. Wouldn't be surprised to see May "managed" this week either. AJ stays until JVR puts together weeks of good VFL form. Not one match against the bottom side. I'm not convinced by this. As in, I accept he's doing more than the raw stats often show us, but I'm not convinced that's keeping him in the side. Who is at Casey right now who is banging the door down to take his place? Laurie? And that aside, if he and Viney are both fit this week, and noting you've already accepted Viney is an automatic selection, who makes way for Viney?

I've now had the chance to watch the replay and my first thought was that @fr_ap was spot on to highlight Sydney's pressure. Yes, they were poor at moving the ball, and they fell apart late, but for most of the game they were giving us properly strong opposition. We were just better than them, and had we not had a series of unfortunate misses in the second, we should have been 60 points up at half time. The other main thing I liked was seeing Sydney seriously challenge us early in the third, only for us to steady and bite back. Hayward had a chance to bring the margin back to 11 points and they looked like they were about to have their one good quarter but thankfully he missed, and from there we put them away. We're as in form as anyone else right now and we're playing a brand that stacks up - it starts with proper defensive pressure across the entire 18, and we're outscoring on turnover. This football can win us enough matches to make finals, even despite the 0-5 start, so long as we can keep it up. Enough's been said about Koz and Gawn but I absolutely loved Langford and Lindsay - we have nailed those two picks, so much so that I genuinely no longer give a rat's tossbag about Essendon holding our first rounder this year. Enough's also been said about AJ but my view on that is pretty clear - he holds that spot until JVR puts together weeks of consistent VFL form. Then JVR can have that spot back. JVR's clearly the more talented long-term fit for the team.

We have St Kilda next week, not Collingwood.

We won all four quarters, including 8 goals in the fourth, winning it by 3 goals despite Sydney having had 2 extra days’ break and us playing in Brisbane last week. Any reason why Langdon only played 78% TOG? Very low by his standards. Managing him through this tough part of the fixture? Pickett did everything he did despite only 76% TOG. He only played 3/4 of the match!

I haven’t seen the game but if their pressure was 220 in the first half and we still managed to win both quarters and lead by 20–odd, that’s a stunning outcome and, like you, probably going to be my favourite thing to come out of today. Although also, @jnrmac will be happy as we won all four quarters!

The final 10 games starts with Port Adelaide (before the bye), followed by GC and Adelaide post-bye, all away. I’ve never seen a side have three consecutive road trips (whether or not including a bye). It’s a brutal month. We then get North, Carlton, St Kilda and West Coast, before closing with the Dogs, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Even if we do win the next 3, having to go 7-3 from the rest seems very difficult IMO. But for me, let’s just see how we go tomorrow. As good as last week was, and even respecting that we’ve gone 4-1 over the last 5 weeks, a loss tomorrow will flip these sorts of threads back into “sack Goodwin” and “omg we don’t have a first round pick” again.

Well then we could easily have said he was being managed, like we did with Melksham a few weeks ago. This is as surprising a selection decision as I can think of, and that’s saying something given recent history.

I don’t agree. I actually think their percentage hides their true performance. They regularly only play 1-2 quarters per week. Last week they kicked 5 of their 12 goals in the fourth quarter. The week before v Essendon, as you’ve noted, they kicked 2.4 in a half. The week before v GWS they kicked 5 goals in the first 10 minutes and then 7 for the rest of the match. Against GC it was really just one quarter - 6 goals in the first, 6 for the rest of the match (3 of which came in the last 10 minutes of junk time). They were 5 goals down to Port at 3QT (at home) before kicking 5 of their 10 overall goals in the fourth to narrow the margin. We’re not good enough yet to be raging favourites but if we bring last week’s form (big if, I know), we should have Sydney’s measure, even (I think) with Mills and Adams back.

If we make finals, after missing them last year and starting 0-5, you’d sack him? Crazy. If we make finals from here we are necessarily going to have to string together a bunch of wins over good sides. If we put a strong enough last 13 games together to do that, there is not a shred of doubt that he’s our coach next year. Not a shred.

It was so bad. The score at the bottom of the screen changes between the Chandler kick and when he comes to the bench. We’d kicked 2 more goals in between FFS!

Only the 4th time in 8.5 seasons that someone has beaten Brisbane at the Gabba when trailing at 3QT.

Does it? Does one good fourth quarter mean we’re fit? I’m sure there’s a mental aspect to it but doing it once doesn’t mean we’re necessarily fit enough to do it each week. I haven’t seen the game yet but I’ve noticed it was a fairly low tackle count - 39-41, including just 7 each in the fourth. Contrast with last week, which was 61-44. Perhaps that impacted our ability to run this one out?

We’re out of the bottom 4! In all seriousness, I can’t wait to watch this one having missed it. We have a rivalry of sorts with Brisbane and it’s become quite enjoyable beating them, but far more importantly it’s what the win signifies. Of all the games to find something in the last, it’s this one. +9 in CPs and +13 inside 50s, for 4.8 to 1.1. Could have blown them out of the water but given they were 1st and we were 15th, beggars can’t be choosers. We’ve won 4 of our last 5 and the 5th was a game we arguably should have won. It’s fair enough now to say our form is turning, if it hasn’t already. Less than halfway in and we’re 1 game (and a stack of percentage) out of the 8. We have plenty to play for, even if we’re coming from too far back.

Didn’t see the game but if Tholstrup appeared to be disinterested/sooking, that presents him and us with an important moment in his fledgling career. We can’t have anyone at our club who acts like that. We can use this to spark him into realising that an AFL career can be blown up all too easily, and he can start to get real with his attitude. If he wants to play seniors, go and earn it. Make this a turning point in his development.

A nice piece about Koz in The Age: https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/kysaiah-pickett-opens-up-on-his-culture-his-future-and-his-safe-space-20250516-p5lzqg.html Of note: “Pickett’s connection to home and the club where he has become a favourite among teammates and fans is apparent in an interview he and his father gave to this masthead to mark the league’s celebrations of Indigenous culture in the game. “There’s always homesickness,” Pickett said. “Anyone who’s from interstate, they’re always homesick, they always think about going home. I have honest conversations with Goody and [I’ve] been able to tell him I’m homesick, but there’s never really any talk about leaving at the moment.” And on Goodwin: “We’ve got a pretty close relationship,” Pickett said. “We’ve had a lot of honest conversations and all that and he’s supported me a lot. “Like when we play away, when we play home [in WA], I get to stay a few days, get to go early to spend time with my family during the week. If I’m not feeling up to it, he’ll let me stay home. He’s a very supportive coach. And I just love him for that. “I think I proved to him that I can work hard away from the club and I’ve been able to earn his trust since a young age.” And his father’s comments: “The treatment of my son at this club has been amazing,” Kropinyeri said. “Their love, understanding. Then you got Matty Whelan, who comes in, helps him out with any type of Aboriginal perspectives here. “I get a real family atmosphere, and they have loved and treated my son very well. If you’re loving my son well, then you’ve got my love and respect.”

They have Hipwood and Morris as tall forwards. Only two right? They’ve dropped Fort. So do we need three tall defenders?