At the break of Gawn

Melb vs top 8 sides (incl, finals): 10-2 Dogs vs top 8 sides (incl. finals): 7-5 Port vs top 8 sides (incl. finals): 5-5 We’re a different kettle of fish.

One thing on our side is the bye. The Dogs don’t play well after the bye. Some recent examples: 2021 - Rnd 14 - After the bye the Dogs lost to the Cats 2020 - EF - After winning 3 on the trot at the end of the season, following the pre-finals bye, the Dogs lose to the less fancied Saints. 2019 - EF - After 3 wins on the trot including some massive wins, the dogs lose to the Giants even though they belted them in rnd 23. I really feel this week off will hurt them. As Gawn said in an interview, he said he felt like we’ve mastered the bye. We’ve handled it once extremely well and bashed the Cats. I have a feeling the Dogs won’t handle it as well as us.

I didn’t know McKay played for the dogs? If you’re talking about Naughton then he’s no where near it. Fritsch has kicked 7 more than him and played 1 less game.

I think it’s easy to forget that Port beat the Dogs at Marvel in rnd 23 and the Dogs had an even better side playing that game. Port Adelaide simply didn’t show up. The Dogs eclipsed them in contested possession by 25 in the first qtr. It was an AFL record. There’s no way the Dogs are getting anywhere near that against us. In fact, even when we lost to them in rnd 19 we won the contested possession by 20 overall. We’ve been the number 1 team with scores from stoppages they last 4 weeks, which was our weakness in rnd 19. Like others on here, I think if we are even in the contest and it’s a dry game, we will win.

To make me feel better, can anyone mount a case why playing the Dogs is better for us than Port (if they had shown up?

They won both their games there though this year.

This game will be won at ground level. If it’s a dry game, I think we’ll win, but if it rains I think we’ll be really challenged.

One other thing, I thought that was one of the most powerful display of tackling and pressure I’ve ever seen from any team. I was worried about Geelong’s physicality before the game but we absolutely bullied them!!

I just woke up and I still can’t get over that third qtr. How did we go from 29pts up to 78pts up in a blink of an eye? That last qtr just felt like a carnival atmosphere. Can you just imagine if we got that far ahead in the GF at 3qtr time? We’d be partying in the grand stands. Max played one of the greatest qtrs of football you’ll see, but Petracca early in the game and in the first half of that 3rd qtr was unstoppable. It was like we were all watching the most dynamic and powerful footballer of our time turn it on in a prelim. I’m so glad there’s a bye because that intra-club match sim last Friday will be needed again for the GF after we pushed over Dad’s army with ease last night!

I’m not comfortable yet, but if we get to 44pts up there’s no way this Cats side is coming back from that.

I’m feeling a strong mix of nerves and excitement for tonight. I don’t know what it is, but I just feel this is our time. It’s not just us who think it, it’s every other footy observer. Is it possible that we’re all wrong? The Cats remind me of the old team on the ropes where one more knock out will kick them out of contention for good where we won’t see them again in our finals for a few more years. Someone likened this game to the 2000 prelim and it’s resonated with me. A team full of momentum vs an ageing team now just approaching outside the window. Let’s get it done Dees. Bring effort and intensity. Kick straight in front of goal and just hope the umps are kind to us.

A hell of a lot nicer than what the West Australian had in 2018.

First: 1996 late in the season Melb v Carlton. Melbourne the underdogs came out and surprised the baggers and Neitz kicked 8. Best: 2000 QF against Carlton for obvious reasons. Worst: Probably not that common but it’s the rnd 2 2016 when we lost to that Essendon reserves team. After beating a much fancied Giants side the week before I thought we were in for a good season (we also won all our pre-season games). It was just an embarrassing loss to a team who rightly shouldn’t have won a game all year. A close 2nd, and also in 2016, was that loss to Carlton to kill our finals chances. And 3rd, even though I wasn’t there. has to be that capitulation to the Pies in rnd 23 2017.

Not sure if many on here watched 360 earlier but the the interview with Garry Lyon right at the end was actually very good. You can tell how excited he is and he genuinely believes this is our year. Joey Montagna again talked about Melbourne’s defence and how Geelong’s defensive 50 to forward 50 transition was their worst in round 23 for the entire season which underscores how well we defend ball movement. Kingy talked about Geelong’s physicality. No surprise to many on here, Geelong are one of the best tackling teams and also one of the best at breaking tackles. Viney is going to be absolutely key to us tomorrow night to try and match that. King also said he believes Jake Lever is the most influential player tomorrow night and depending on how he goes, will shape the result.

FWIW, the word ambush is absolutely the best way to describe what happened to us that Saturday afternoon. This is exactly what we need to do tomorrow night to the Cats and put it away early.

I think I have too much time or nervous energy this afternoon so I decided to look up historical betting odds to see what they were for the PF in 2018. Want to hear a scary yet surprising fact? WCE were $1.76 to win and Melbourne was $2.06 As it stands, we are $1.49 and the Cats are $2.65 I'm really surprised we were only $2.06 in 2018. My memory was that we were massive underdogs but maybe that's just skewed because we got belted.

This is a good analysis. I think if you look at their Semi-final, they did use the ball a bit more aggressively at times. The thing is, the Giants don't do zone defence at all - they are a one-on-one side in their defence and it's been pretty good for them all year. Unfortunately though, they give up a lot of inside 50s, and so eventually when you come up against some terrific forwards who are good at one-on-ones (such as Hawkins), the damn wall eventually breaks which is what we saw last week. I don't think the Cats will move the ball as easily through Optus as they did last week due to our zone defence. I think you'll see them take less aggressive kicks. I watched some of the round 23 game last night again, and I think the fact that the game was at GMHBA had a massive influence on their ability to get on top. It's much easier to score off centre clearances, and it's also easier to get really deep entries. If you look at that period of play before they kicked those centre bounce goals, they got some decent looks from deep entries where our defenders were all one-on one. This was also from them winning at stoppage where we went one-on-one, and their pressure in the midfield (mainly from Parfitt) was huge. In the second half we put Salem a kick behind the stoppage which had a huge impact and steadied us. I think I recall Montagna highlighting this on "First Crack". He said Melbourne went even numbers at the stoppage in the first half as we were desperate to get the ball in our half of the ground as we worried about taking the ball the length of the field against Geelong. I don't why this is but someone on here may know why. I know it's been said 1000 times before already, but this game will be won and lost in the midfield. Gawn is our most important player tomorrow and he needs to dominate Stanley in the ruck and give our mids first use. Stanley played out of his skin in the first half against us in round 23, and was a big reason why they got that run on. If we get our territory game up and running and it "looks like a Melbourne game" you'll see us with repeat entries and you'll see us take easy intercepts when they try and rebound.

I’ve noticed that the media narrative this week regarding Melbourne has all been about “dare to dream” and the hope to break the 57 year drought, while for the few articles regarding Geelong and any player interviews are all about “how will you stop Melbourne?” etc. Just seems the external expectation on Melbourne is 10x that of Geelong. A silver lining in this final series for us is being in a hub and not being distracted by all the external pressure.

They are also 2-4 against top 8 sides away from GMHBA (including finals). Their record against top 8 sides this year (including finals) is 5-6. By comparison, us against top 8 sides away from the MCG this year we are 6-0 Our record against top 8 sides this year no matter what ground, is 9-2 (including finals)

It is so imperative we beat the Cats on Friday just to peg this man down a notch. He’s complained all year, made ridiculous excuses for Geelong’s performances at every turn, and made disrespectful comments such as his team didn’t care about winning because there was no home final on offer after they lost to us. Now he’s come out and bagged Larkins after scoffing at Stewart‘s extremely unlikely return from a serious lisfranc injury which at times has forced players into early retirement. Please for the good of the game, Dees - put this man back in his box. https://www.afl.com.au/news/675042/maybe-hes-an-entertainer-geelong-coach-chris-scott-on-dr-peter-larkins-tom-stewart-call

Agree. If someone brought up the match preview thread for the 2018 PF you’d seldom find many posters who were confident of a win. 2018 was all about creating a stepping stone for the future. 2021 is all about winning it.

I don’t think I’ve seen this asked yet in the thread, but if you had the choice of Cats, Dogs or Power to play in the prelim - who would you choose? I’d probably take the Cats (just). Dogs have an amazing midfield and I think Bont will play and they did beat us late in the season. Although their ruck situation is horrible, the dogs set up to lose hitouts and ended up winning the clearances easily.. Power have a heap of dangerous small forwards who could trouble us and their defence is in terrific form. I know a lot of posters are worried about Geelong, but in all honesty, I think we’ve got the softest kill if you’re comparing to the other two alternatives.

I completely understand what you are saying and it makes 100% sense. Unfortunately a flaw of the human condition is that some of us worry more about what we can’t control than what we can control. 😬

Bowey seemed a bit nervous to me on Saturday night. I still think he lacks a bit of awareness and has been caught htb a few times. I’d be bringing in Hibberd in my opinion. He’s reliable and you know exactly what you’re going to get and I think he has the smarts to play on Rohan.

Also happy to pass on my barcode. I have a grand final guarantee membership as well. Just pm me on here.