At the break of Gawn

I'm not as excited about tonight as I was last week. Mainly because I'm still a bit annoyed that we're again fighting to avoid straight sets. Having said that, I'm actually more confident on a win tonight as compared to last week which I thought was 50-50. There was a level of unknown about the Pies last week because they had been in poor form but they had that big win against Essendon and then the bye. Carlton played their grand final last week. They're not going as well as a lot of people think, and majority of their streak was against bottom 6 sides. Apart from Weitering, their defence is no where near as talented as Collingwood's. Martin and McKay are also big loss for them. The last thing I'll say is, really good teams don't just fall to 16th on the ladder and lose 7-8 in a row mid season. Carlton have gone on a hot streak, but deep down we all know they're not winning the flag this year. We're a better side, we've been in the 8 all year and top 4 for most of it. Dees by 22 I think it'll be 90-68.

I just noticed that last year between our two finals losses we made no team changes between the QF loss and the SF loss. Hopefully a bit change (albeit two forced) will yield a result.

They played a game at Marvel together and got belted by Marshall.

Thinking about this a bit more, Carlton are poor once the ball gets on the outside. My thinking is that we’ll try and get the ball into space and run in and behind their defenders. The Carlton defence plays back shoulder, you need to beat them with a bit of speed and mobility. Maybe Goody was inspired by Longmire’s decision to sub Amarti and go small which led to the Swans almost running over the top? Either way, I think Schache needs to be sub to give us some insurance in case Gawn goes down or if we’re getting out marked badly down in our forward 50.

Fascinated to see who the sub will be. Can’t see it being Grundy.

Yikes. So when Tmac is rucking we have no tall forwards.

He's payed in finals, and played a huge negating role on Alir in the 2021 prelim for the Dogs. He was one of their best that night. People calling for Turner to play as forward (which isn't happening now anyway) is insane. Surely we don't go with Grundy either which didn't work last time against Carlton. The coaching staff gave up after a half.

I'm a JVR fan but he's kicked 1 goal the last 2 weeks and looks tired. I think if Schache kicks 2 goals, competes well in the air and does serviceable in the ruck then we'll probably be ok.

Jury still out until we beat a big 4 team in a final at the G.

Harris Andrews for Brisbane. Can’t stand the guy

Montagna said 19 but it’s actually 29 as per the graphic and you can go back and check the scores from round 12 and 22.

Considering JvR and Tmac only had 2 hit outs in total on Thursday night I really think you’re putting too much weight into this. Even Spargo could chance a hit out.

Just watching AFL 360, and Joey said Carlton’s forward entries have been awful against us. Apparently Carlton have only had 29 scoring shots from 92 entries against us in 2023. Its almost our lucky day that we’re playing a team just as inefficient as us on Friday night.

Tmac or Schache can do it. Ins: Jordan, Tomlinson, Schache/Turner/Brown, Spargo (Sub) Out: Brayshaw, JvR, Hibberd, Laurie (sub)

Hibbo was a good matchup for Elliott but we don’t need him for Carlton I feel.

I think Schache, Turner or Brown will come in for JvR. Spargo will replace Laurie I think.

Cameron and Mcstay took 3 contested marks in dangerous spots out marking the likes of Rivers. If you want Lever to mark in front of Curnow all night, you’re bringing in Tomlinson.

Mitch Cleary has had an inside word all year. Can almost guarantee you he will release a spoiler tomorrow.

I can’t recall a Melbourne game, which in my view, so heavily relies on a match committee getting selection right. Perhaps this is what we’ll be our undoing? In 2021 we barely needed to make a change the last few weeks. This time, picking Grundy to come in could be a disaster or a master stroke.

Yep, David King called this out on Monday. It was Sydney’s quick ball movement in the second half that troubled Carlton.

Lever played his best game in ages when Tomlinson played against the Hawks. I'm not sure what Tomlinson did wrong in round 23 (I thought he was ok on DGB), so it was an interesting selection to go Turner. Surely Tomlinson comes back in to play against JSOS?

I feel like this is testing fate if we're already talking about 2024...

According to Sportsbet...

I agree that as supporters we are resilient bunch and we've been at the real depths of the AFL competition. However, I still have reservations around this playing group defeating a big 4 club at the MCG in a final in front of 90k+ crowds until we actually do it. It's something intangible I know, but it appeared that some of the players got a bit intimidated from the raucous Collingwood crowd. The jeers, the boos, the roar of an opposition goal has an effect. I know we're favourites, and by many, expected to win, but beating Carlton and getting the monkey off our back will be huge for this playing group. The 2021 premiership is a cherished memory and a landmark moment in this club's history, but the fact is, it was "off broadway". Winning a big final at the MCG is what this team needs.

100% we need to focus on Friday. A win against the Blues will do wonders for this club.