At the break of Gawn

Just gotta win by a few goals tomorrow and we’re back in 4th 🙏

Carlton’s mids have given the GC mids an absolute bath. 120+ more disposals.

They actually also play the MCG pretty well and had their best win of the season there. They’re a bargain at $3.40

A loss late season when all your key metrics are healthy can often be a blip. However, a loss when lots of your key metrics are unhealthy can often point to a more significant issue that many on here are overlooking. We’re 17th from scores from turnover (Only Richmond is worse) over the last 5 matches and we’ve got a midfield mix who have next to nothing score involvement averages (apart from Trac). A win this week will be nice, but honestly all I want is to kick a healthy score off turnover and an improvement in score involvements across our mids. Freo are also the best team at moving the ball so it doesn’t get better next week.

Binman was saying on the podcast that the change in game style was to score more from turnover, however the numbers aren’t showing that at all. Have a look at these sobering stats on how we’re fairing in the turnover game this year ‘24 season: Scores from turnover: Ranked 14th Scores from turnover differential: Ranked 13th Last 5 matches: Scores from turnover: Ranked 17th Scores from turnover differential: Ranked 15th Let’s compare it to 2023 Scores from turnover: Ranked 7th (Pies were 6th) Scores from turnover differential: Ranked 3rd (Collingwood was 2nd) The Eagles were a bottom 6 turnover side but they’ve improved over the last 5 matches and are ranked 7th now for differential. I’ve got no idea what the coaches are trying, but our turnover scores and turnover differential (the biggest key indicator of winning the flag) is in the toilet. People on the forum love to say “oh but the Pies lost to the Hawks last year and won the flag”. Yes, they did. But it’s not all about the Win-losses at the moment, it’s about the way we’re playing and we’re playing ****house.

As I said on another thread, the coaches have thrown the baby out with the bath water. We only needed a few tweaks to our game plan to challenge and win finals. As Hoyney said last night, we won on expected score the last 3 finals, we probably should have beaten Collingwood and we definitely should have beaten Carlton last year. The coaches have overreacted and we’ve gone backwards. Time to go back to our DNA I say.

I think Hoyney from Champion data sums up what most of us are thinking

3 of Sydney’s mids are in the top 10 for score involvements. Gold Coast have 3 in the top 20. Freo have 3 in the top 20. The Dogs have 3 (If I also count English) in the top 20. We have Petracca at 2 (always excellent with SI) and then Gawn at 42, Oliver at 84 and Viney is at 121. Despite what you say about our mids and their contest work, outside of Petracca, we have one of the least damaging midfields in the game. Goody talks about “punishing off turnover” and we have the meekest punishers in the game when it comes to midfielders outside of Trac.

Courtesy of Twitter (x)

About the only good thing Viney is doing this year is pressure acts. I guess it’s easy to get high pressure acts when you’re not first to the ball, can’t find it in the open, and just chase all day.

Lost 3 of our last 5. It’s a pattern now.

After watching First Crack last night, I think it’s time we drop our new game plan and go back to what works for us. Yes, we went out in straight sets last year, but that method gave us plenty of opportunities to win both games. It was mainly just accuracy that let us down. This is a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bath water by the coaching group. We only needed a few tweaks, instead they’ve overhauled the game plan and we’ve lost our identity.

Raised it with Binman last week and he just pointed to pressure stats 😂

Oliver and Petracca have only once finished in the top 5 disposal getters together this season (against the Dogs). Jack Viney has not had more than 25 disposals in a game this season. This three headed monster midfield, once even compared to Judd, Kerr and Cousins, is just a shell of its former self..

Swing the axe. Out: Billings, BBB, Petty, Lever In: Competitors.

It’s genuinely panic stations for our midfield. They’re going as well as Carlton’s defence.

Worst performance since 2019. Can’t wait to hear @binman defend this midfield mix. Beaten by a 19 year old and the likes of Duggan. I honestly think Goodwin needs to drop the kick mark style. Go back to our clearance and territory game. As soon as the opposition curtails our uncontested game we turn to water.

Smash in the midfield again. Absolutely laughable that some on this site suggested they were going ok. We won’t even make the top 8 with this midfield mix.

That Keayes kick which led to the smother was crazy bad. No composure

Sort of feel Collingwood will always be there abouts until this guy retires.

This is technically incorrect as of the start of this round. They’re actually 5-0. Also, 4 of those 5 wins were at the SCG. The Swans are a great team but they have an awfully soft draw. They only play Essendon and the Giants as the only top 6 teams away for the remainder of the season. They are unbelievably lucky to not play Melb, Geelong or Carlton in Victoria this season and got the Pies at the right time.

McGovern is out for the game. Might be in doubt to play us next week.

I’m not questioning their effort, I’m questioning their ball winning ability. If they’re not winning the ball, then the opposition mids are. You can throw all your stats at me, but when we let the opposition prime mids get 34 and 35 disposals each with 2.1 goals between them, and lose contested possession, then it’s a smashing. Do you know when we also got smashed in the middle? The Lions game, Swans in OR and the Port game which we only really got over the line with unbelievable accuracy.

Second this. Can you guys please have a robust discussion regarding our midfield? I don’t want to hear pressure and tackling stats, I want to focus on pure ball in hand stuff because we’ve been poor all year except for one or two games.

This just simply isn’t true. Cripps and Walsh both had 34 and 35 disposals and kicked 2.1 between them. If Cerra had run out the game he also would have had 30+. To blame the defenders on the 5 centre clearances is also extremely short sighted and black and white thinking. Our defenders rely heavily on the pressure up the ground and Carlton had numerous exits at the front of the stoppage which allowed them easy looks. Do you think the Dogs in 2021 blame all of Melbourne’s centre clearance goals on their defence? No they blame it on their mids who allowed clean exit from the centre square. Let’s also analyse your “mids are having a good season comment” by looking at our 3 prime mids. Viney: Averaging 21 disposals a game - very average for a full time mid and clearly down on form. Don’t throw me pressure stats, I’m talking about pure ball in hand stuff. Oliver - Averaging 25 disposals compared to his usual 29 and only 4 clearances compared to his usual 9. Petracca- Matching his usual career average but has struggled with a tag. If he didn’t go forward he probably would have finished sub 20 disposals for the match. As a team we’ve also only won contested possessions 4 times and clearances 5 which used to be our one wood. For a team that supposed to be focused on “contest and defence” our contest work, especially in the middle, has been lacking all year. I can absolutely guarantee you that Goody would not be happy with our midfield to date. I know our forwards were poor on Thursday night, but to give our midfield a pass is just crazy when they’re posting record low numbers. What makes it even more disappointing is that Gawn is having an almighty year but our mids haven’t capitalised at all. None of our mids except for Petracca (mainly on his score involvements) would be in the conversation for AA this year.