At the break of Gawn

Our finals chances on life support if Port win

Looks like he’s in Noosa on holidays at the moment.

I didn’t realise Taylor was coming back for them. The task would have been significantly easier without him and Cummings. It actually feels like we’ve been on the rough end of the stick this year with opposition players returning. Carlton had McGovern and Martin return against us. West Coast were at full strength, Brisbane got back Ashcroft just to name a few instances.

He's probably not gettable, but Graham Wright did an incredible job in the couple of years he was at Collingwood before he went on his sabbatical/basically retired. Pretty much nailed every trade they got in.

It's well stated that Melbourne has been dealing with Clayton's off-field issues for a number of years. From what I understand, while the footy in his life has been consistent, he's been able to manage and juggle it ok. From what I know based on a conversation with someone at the club, the problems all started with his hamstring injury last year. Without the daily grind of footy everyday, Clarry lost the structure in his day and that's where his off-field problems started to escalate. I thought Buckley made a really good point last night on "On the couch". He said sometimes "manic on-field" and "manic off-field" works really well for some individuals. He then went onto say, Oliver is clearly had a transition from that "manic off-field" lifestyle and it may take a while for him to fully adjust. I'm backing Clarry in. With him in a better headspace next year and a full pre-season, I expect a return to somewhere near his best. He may never reach that same level, but I still think he can be a top 10 player in the game.

Goodwin said in the presser we need a new method of winning at clearance. It’s not an overnight change, hopefully something we’ll be better at in 2025.

Despite the horror show yesterday, I'm bullish we can get the job done against the Giants. They're not going as well as people think. They've lost the last 2 on expected score (Richmond and Suns at Engie) and have been belted on inside 50 differential the last couple of weeks too. They've just been extremely efficient and very accurate which has got them over the line. Given that we've been the best team at restricting teams from scoring per entry and have upped our territory game, plus it's at the MCG, I think we'll win. If we can't roll the Giants at the MCG it's curtains for the season.

Reflecting on yesterday’s loss this morning, and the thing that disappointed me the most, is not the fact that we lost, but all of the key stats we’ve turned around since the bye we were smashed in. - We’ve been the 2nd best defensive side since the bye and conceding the second lowest scores and yet we gave up a massive score - We’ve been the best contested possession team since the bye yet we were smashed in this stat. - Our scoring had improved yet we kicked 3 goals in the first half and a goalless opening qtr I’m not sure what it is about Fremantle, but the fact we can get within 5pts of Brisbane (and we probably deserved to win) but put in such a limp performance is just plain disheartening.

Their game plan is our kryptonite and they know how to disarm our strengths. Remember, Longmuir was a Buckley assistant who had a very good record against Goodwin. Buckley even sat in their coaches box last year at the MCG where we lost. They have excellent contested midfielders who know that we swarm at the contest and don’t keep separation. With Oliver no where near it, Rivers beaten, Sparrow just a shadow, it was too much for Viney. I can’t see us beating this Freo side for a number of years with that midfield. Lever was horrible down back. On a positive, I thought Petty was very good around the ground and our best tall forward of the ball. That was probably his second best rated game. This time I think we will respond though and beat GWS.

And don’t mention the clearances. According to Binman they’re a irrelevant stat.

We really struggle against good clearance teams who have hard 2 way running mids. Brayshaw, Serong and Young just embarrassing whole midfield. Lost it at selection with no Fullarton. Draper is lazy and apart from Merrett the Bombers have a very average midfield compared to the Dockers.

Any update on the rain?

Regardless of the result today, I think we’re going to have a strong run home.

Only way I see us winning this one is evening up on clearance and it rain during the game to help stop their uncontested game.

Can’t understand the supporters who want the Dogs to win. With their superior percentage they could easily take our spot if we drop one we’re expecting to win. The Cats aren’t missing the 8 this year. Got the easiest run home.

Tiger and Cats tonight please. Even if the Tigers keep it close it will help.

Could Pendles and Sidebottom’s last AFL game be against us?

Essendon's loss is great for us. We will be 5th at the end of the round assuming the Swans and the Giants win. We will be 4th at the end of the round if the Swans win and the Giants lose...

lol go Crows!

Wow Martin really is a serial ducker

This is the worst defending I’ve seen all year by two AFL teams. Absolute garage and can’t believe Essendon are in the 8.

Have you seen the weather forecast? It’s going to be wet. Darcy will be a liability out there.

I’m still fascinated by who goes out next week when Max comes in. Is Sunday Petty’s last chance? Or is he a permanent fixture and they’ll demote someone like the Kolt to sub?

They’ve won the last 2, but wouldn’t necessarily say they’ve got the wood over us. They haven’t beaten us at Optus Stadium yet…

I've done the ladder predictor at least a dozen times, and I'm fairly confident 13 wins will be enough if expected results go our way (e.g. Dogs lose to Geelong and Sydney, Port lose to Carlton, Sydney and Freo at Optus etc) and we beat Port and the Giants. In my opinion the most crucial clash that can help us stay in with 13 wins is the Q clash game between the Suns and Brisbane. If Brisbane can knock the Suns off at HBS, then I'm fairly confident the Suns won't catch us based off their terrible away record while still assuming they beat West Coast and Richmond away. I've got the Suns, Port and Hawks all finishing on 12 wins. The Dogs and Pies on 11 wins. My run home prediction is: Freo - L Giants - W Dogs - W Port - W Suns - L Pies - L Although I'm pretty sure the Pies will be dead and buried by round 24, my past trauma makes me somehow expect to lose that game.